Draft Time

[freakon0mics]

It would be wise to draft a foreign player and leave him overseas. I like the reports on both Batum and Ibaka but both seem to be very raw. Having them play more elsewhere instead of sitting on our bench helps out.

[sully00]

I am done with Euro players it is a waste of time. Unless you have a Tony Parker situtation were the kid is American Born and dying to come over it is a friggin mess. You absolutely can't use a first round pick on a guy who then has to wait a year or two to come over then his contract isn't even market value for his draft slot.

If a kid is commited to coming that season it is one thing but this has basically turned into these guys using their NBA draft status to get them a contract overseas, and props to them for that, but I have no use for it. Even the guys who are here are leaving. 2nd rounders are fine but 1st round picks is a mistake.

Walker, Hardin, Lee and don't really have a preference. I am fine with taking Jamont Gordon as well.

I don't have a problem with Ryan Anderson who is actually very underated in this draft. If he was Anderson Ryanovich he would be a lottery pick. There is a lot of Troy Murphy in him.

I agree with the idea that this an awful draft. I mean as bad as '06 was there was some real ability in that draft, even All Star possibilities. This draft is hanging on a undersized PF with character issues and a 6ft undeveloped PG and it goes downhill from there. If you can find a starter in this draft outside of a big stiff center you are playing with house money.

[Gomes3PC]

Actually it predicted Morrison would be a total disaster, and Redick would be a role player (which I still think he can be if he ever gets a shot, heck Jason Kapono is doing the same thing). The thing is that the PER projections factor in age for the production, so an older player like Morrison putting up big scoring numbers but little else in an easy conference was not going to light it up. It just helps to show that there are underrated players out there- like Rondo- who people like to knock down because of one major flaw (Rondo's shooting, Baby's fatness). Unfortunately in this draft, it's so thin that I doubt any quality player slips to us because there are so few.

Really? Call me incredulous - show me a link to Morrison's PER. I suppose he didn't rebound that well no? I just threw his name out there. I think your giving it too much credit. But hey..enjoy.

It predicted Morrison's PER to be 12.71, which is okay but when you factor in that he's an awful defender then it's much less defendable. Not to mention the fact that his 12.71 ranked 14th out of only the guards/wings in that draft, and 21st overall, but he was picked in the top 5. And looking at the list of guys ahead of him on the PER projection, I think it did a pretty good job:

1. Rudy Gay
2. Marcus Williams
3. Rajon Rondo
4. Shawne Williams
5. Brandon Roy
6. Jordan Farmar
7. Hassan Adams (first miss)
8. Renaldo Balkman
9. Ronnie Brewer
10. Daniel Gibson
11. PJ Tucker (miss)
12. Dee Brown (miss)
13. Kyle Lowry

So over the 13 guards ranked ahead of him, I'd definitely take 9 of them, and probably even one more (Balkman)

[Gomes3PC]

I am done with Euro players it is a waste of time. Unless you have a Tony Parker situtation were the kid is American Born and dying to come over it is a friggin mess. You absolutely can't use a first round pick on a guy who then has to wait a year or two to come over then his contract isn't even market value for his draft slot.

If a kid is commited to coming that season it is one thing but this has basically turned into these guys using their NBA draft status to get them a contract overseas, and props to them for that, but I have no use for it. Even the guys who are here are leaving. 2nd rounders are fine but 1st round picks is a mistake.

Walker, Hardin, Lee and don't really have a preference. I am fine with taking Jamont Gordon as well.

I don't have a problem with Ryan Anderson who is actually very underated in this draft. If he was Anderson Ryanovich he would be a lottery pick. There is a lot of Troy Murphy in him.

I agree with the idea that this an awful draft. I mean as bad as '06 was there was some real ability in that draft, even All Star possibilities. This draft is hanging on a undersized PF with character issues and a 6ft undeveloped PG and it goes downhill from there. If you can find a starter in this draft outside of a big stiff center you are playing with house money.

Uh, Rose isn't 6 feet. He's 6-4; in fact he has the frame to play SG as he fills out, should he be unable for whatever reason to become a PG. And as for undersized PFs, Shawn Marion played PF and did fine, and Boozer is undersized and an All Star PF, not to mention a guy named Charles Barkley.

s Beasley a guy who is going to carry you to the promised land? No. But it's comical how his stock is falling last-second. This guy is going to step in the NBA right away and get you 20 points and 9-10 rebounds a game, and in his prime should be a 24 and 12 guy, which is unbelievably rare in the NBA. He can make any shot you could ask from a PF or even a SF. And while he will never be great on D, he can at least be solid there. He's certainly way better of a #2 pick than OJ Mayo will ever turn out to be, at least IMO.

Rose has a lot more boom or bust potential than Beasley; personally I think the whole attitude thing with Beasley is a mild concern, but this guy is not Vin Baker. He likes playing basketball, and by most interviews I've read from him he is well-spoken and pretty funny (like his 'I'm sad to hear that I found out I was a midget' quote when he came in under 6-9). Does he have the relentless fire of a Kevin Garnett? No, but there have been great NBA players without that kind of intensity. If he slips past 2, in less than two years the Heat will rue the day they skipped out on him. Rose to Chicago at least makes sense; he's a potential superstar in hometown Chicago and they need a leader at the PG spot. Beasley going anywhere but #2 to a PF-hungry Heat team is just comical, yet that appears to be what will turn out.

[Celtics_Champs]

[quote="sully00"]I am done with Euro players it is a waste of time. Unless you have a Tony Parker situtation were the kid is American Born and dying to come over it is a friggin mess. You absolutely can't use a first round pick on a guy who then has to wait a year or two to come over then his contract isn't even market value for his draft slot.


I have been saying this since the beginning. It is too sketchy. Remember the year when some posters wanted Roko Ukic or whatever that guys name is at 18 over ryan gomes. It was not a factor though because of green and gomes both falling but still. Some guys are ga ga over euros and it is crazy. Anyone still want Yi? or is that over?

On a side note I really like this Danillo Gallineri player. Then again, the last player I thought was worthy of a top 10 pick was Bargani, and he has been busting so far, so what do I know...

I am excited about this draft. I wonder if ainge will be active, or just sit back and make his first and second round selections. The side stories will be fun too though, such as the number 2 pick.

[sully00]

Gomes3PC

Don't clown me Derrick Rose is 6'1" they measured his ass. I like Beasley alot but he is what he is. Etlon Brand is the comparison to look at but again I think he is going to be a hell of a player but I can't say that is what I was hoping to get out of the #1 or #2 pick.

More importantly after that it gets downright scary. Anthony Randolph has the chance to be the biggest head scratcher in history. This is literally the first round of "well we had to pick somebody." It doesn't sound like Mario Chalmers has made a jump shot since the season ended but he is going in the first round because there is no one else. Hell even the Euros GM's want to burn the pick on to stay out of the guaranteed cash are all signing 3 and 4 year deals to stay overseas making it a complete waste.

[Celts17Pride]

DeMarcus Nelson?

http://probasketballnews.com/amico_062508.html

Duke guard DeMarcus Nelson, who isn’t projected to even be selected in most mock drafts, could be a late first-round pick, according to two GMs. Nelson gave a strong showing in Orlando and both Detroit and Boston are said to be interested in getting him early.

[threrf23]

DeMarcus Nelson?

http://probasketballnews.com/amico_062508.html

Duke guard DeMarcus Nelson, who isn’t projected to even be selected in most mock drafts, could be a late first-round pick, according to two GMs. Nelson gave a strong showing in Orlando and both Detroit and Boston are said to be interested in getting him early.

NBAdraft.net currently has us taking him @ #60.

I was reading about him earlier after looking at this link -

http://xlssports.googlepages.com/2008NC ... ableDX.htm

"KP100" is supposedly pace adjusted win scores (edit - I guess its position adjusted win scores, although I don't think the position adjustment was done all that well) againt opponents ranking in the nation's top 100. Now, the win scores stat is imperfect, and there is still wide discrepancy versus a team ranked 80th in the nation versus a team ranked 10th...but this is one of the best statistical tables I've come across relative to draft prospects.

Now when viewing this list, two things to consider. First - I could be wrong, but I believe the win shares statistic automatically favors players on teams with a lot of wins. Second, this list blatantly favors tall players - which is logical because in college height is scarce enough so that just being so tall gives an advantage because it is tougher for opponents to match up. Centers obviously appear to be blatantly favored by this statistic, PFs to a slightly lesser extent, whereas PGs seem to be underrated, SFs seem to be underrated, and to a lesser extent SGs.

Anyways, I would say looking for SF/SG/PGs who score relatively high here is a good way to spot potentially underrated prospects. Shan Foster, who BFB has lauded, is one guy who fits the bill.

DeMarcus Nelson also fits the bill, and looking at his strengths/weakness @ nbadraft.net it seems to me he should be able to contribute at the NBA level. Bad assist/TO ratio, but thats common at the collegiate level. Poor FT shooter, but that could indicate room to improve as a shooter.

At the PG position, a guy named George Hill from IUPUI scores highest. Perhaps this is partially because he supposedly played more of a SG role for his team, and its also partially because his team won a lot of games, but still. IUPUI's schedule - even among teams that didn't completely suck, wasn't all that tough, but then again his teammates probably weren't great either. Looking at his profile on NBAdraft.net, seems like an unselfish player with PG skills that can also score nicely. Only real weaknesses: a.) slightly turnover prone, but its hard not to be when you are the main man on a not so good college team, and b.) he was injured previously in his college career. Reading his DraftExpress profile, sounds like he has impressed at camps.

If we move up in the second round or acquire a 2nd second round pick, I wouldn't mind seeing us land George Hill.

[buckner1976]

I am done with Euro players it is a waste of time. Unless you have a Tony Parker situtation were the kid is American Born and dying to come over it is a friggin mess. You absolutely can't use a first round pick on a guy who then has to wait a year or two to come over then his contract isn't even market value for his draft slot.

If a kid is commited to coming that season it is one thing but this has basically turned into these guys using their NBA draft status to get them a contract overseas, and props to them for that, but I have no use for it. Even the guys who are here are leaving. 2nd rounders are fine but 1st round picks is a mistake.

Walker, Hardin, Lee and don't really have a preference. I am fine with taking Jamont Gordon as well.

I don't have a problem with Ryan Anderson who is actually very underated in this draft. If he was Anderson Ryanovich he would be a lottery pick. There is a lot of Troy Murphy in him.

I agree with the idea that this an awful draft. I mean as bad as '06 was there was some real ability in that draft, even All Star possibilities. This draft is hanging on a undersized PF with character issues and a 6ft undeveloped PG and it goes downhill from there. If you can find a starter in this draft outside of a big stiff center you are playing with house money.

basically everything i wouldve said except he said it better. i also like walker, hardin, and lee. would also throw in jr giddens as well who we just recently worked out as well according to the herald. giddens projects as a solid defender incredibly athletic, decent shooter also. co-player of the yr in the mwc and basically carried his whole team. avg almost 9 rebs a game last yr at 6'5.

[threrf23]

I just pulled up this article on George Hill.

http://media.www.jagbytes.com/media/sto ... 1934.shtml

And looking at his game logs, ignoring strength of schedule, he scored in double figures every game he played in last season. Ignoring the season opener in which he fouled out, he pulled down more than 2 rebounds in every game he played in (and double figures on a few occasions), outside of a 4 game stretch he came up with at least one steal every game. He made it to the free throw line in every game he played. He shot 55% from the field, 82% from the line, and 45% from behind the arc despite likely being surrounded by crappy teammates. His team depended on him, and he shot a good quantity of 3s, but he only missed more than three 3 pt FG attempts on two separate occasions (on one, he shot 4-8, on another, 4-9). His worst shooting performance all season was 4-13. Thats some impressive consistency.

If we could somehow walk away with Brandon Rush and George Hill tomorrow night, I'll be happy.

[ParticleMan]

I agree about foreign players, no thanks unless they are a major slider. I have no idea who we're going to draft but I'm guessing it's someone who is a good perimeter defender, or else a solid rebounding big.

[KevinRiley28]

Chad Ford's newest mock draft has us taking Chris Douglas Roberts at 30. He's number 2 on my board behind Courtney Lee at this point... I think he'll be a great replacement for Tony Allen and can play backup to Ray (and Pierce, how much time he'll play at the 3 depends on Posey coming back) and should be a decent scorer off the bench... he can create his own shot which is big

Maybe Danny can work some magic and get into the 2nd round and get a big there since so many seem to be dropping.

[GreenGrizz]

Someone compared DeVon Hardin to Darryl Dawkins. I think we better draft him.

[GuyClinch]

It predicted Morrison's PER to be 12.71, which is okay but when you factor in that he's an awful defender then it's much less defendable.

Wait it "predicted"?! What was his college PER? Sounds like more Hollinger fudging to me.

Pete

[Gomes3PC]

Gomes3PC

Don't clown me Derrick Rose is 6'1" they measured his ass. I like Beasley alot but he is what he is. Etlon Brand is the comparison to look at but again I think he is going to be a hell of a player but I can't say that is what I was hoping to get out of the #1 or #2 pick.

More importantly after that it gets downright scary. Anthony Randolph has the chance to be the biggest head scratcher in history. This is literally the first round of "well we had to pick somebody." It doesn't sound like Mario Chalmers has made a jump shot since the season ended but he is going in the first round because there is no one else. Hell even the Euros GM's want to burn the pick on to stay out of the guaranteed cash are all signing 3 and 4 year deals to stay overseas making it a complete waste.

Sorry, didn't realize he had measured that short. I checked DE and they have 6-2.5" in shoes, which while not 6-4 certainly isn't THAT small. Making up for that a ton is the fact that he has a 6-8 wingspan, much like our long-armed PG Rajon Rondo. As a reference, Russell Westbrook is an inch taller but has a 1/4" shorter wingspan, while OJ Mayo has just a 6-6" wingspan. Unlike Rondo though I think Rose has a frame that can add another 15-20 pounds without much trouble.

If you get Elton freaking Brand out of the #2 pick in the draft, I'll take that. I think the fact that he missed a lot of this season has made you forget just how good Brand is. When healthy, Brand is an athletic freak who plays great defense, scores 20 points, 10 boards, shoots well over 50%, and blocks 2-3 shots a game. If Beasley becomes Elton Brand, whoever gets him will be extremely lucky. The last #2 picks this decade have been: Durant, Aldridge, Marvin Williams, Okafor, Milicic, Jay Williams, Chandler, and Stro Swift. Given that track record, if Beasley becomes Elton Brand he'll turn out better than any other #2 pick than Durant, who incidentally enough was basically EXACTLY the same production-wise to Beasley in college.

As far as Randolph goes, I would not touch him with a 10 foot pole. The guy is a turnover machine, is a beanpole in the post, and was a lot less productive than his raw stats suggest. If he were there at 30 I still wouldn't take him. Chalmers might be struggling with his shot, but you don't shoot 47% from 3 and 52% from the floor without being a good shooter; he's also a plus defender and is not prone to mistakes (2.25 A/TO ratio this year). IMO in this draft he's a top 15 pick, so if he slides to the 20s he'll be a nice pickup to whoever gets him.

I don't think the Euro situation is QUITE as bad as you think, since guys like Marc Gasol and Gallinari are saying they want to come play in the US, as well as other Euro products like Scola, Nocioni, etc. coming over of late. However, there's no way I touch one unless I've worked them out EXTENSIVELY in the US and am 100% sure they will sign. With the 30th pick, it's basically a 2nd rounder, and if there's nobody who we like, I'd prefer that we trade for a 2009 1st rounder, but if we can't I'd be willing to take a shot on a guy like Asik or Ibaka. At 60, if we take a US guy at 30, I'd be happy to take a flyer on Sasha Kaun or another big likely to play in Europe. They could very well become a solid player and with the last pick there's not much downside if we can't sign them.

[Gomes3PC]

It predicted Morrison's PER to be 12.71, which is okay but when you factor in that he's an awful defender then it's much less defendable.

Wait it "predicted"?! What was his college PER? Sounds like more Hollinger fudging to me.

Pete

I don't have his college PER stats. What Hollinger's stats do is try to take his college PER and adjust it for schedule strength, position, and the player's age, then use it as a predictor for NBA offensive success. I don't know where he gets the college PER stats, so I can't give them to you. The predicted PER of 12.71 is that his regression predicts that over his career, Morrison would put up a 12.71 PER in the NBA, far from acceptable as a lottery pick, let alone a top 5 pick. And at least for A-Mo, that 12.71 was pretty generous given his 7.9 PER as a rookie, with horrible defense to boot.

[sully00]

Gomes3PC

I am just playing with you. I think that both Rose and Beasley are very good talents, guys who should at least reach All Star level. I was talking about the draft itself, neither of these guys are franchise players, maybe number 2 guys but not guys who can carry you to the top. After that Love and Mayo have a shot to be special and then it just is a bunch or pin the tail on the donkey. Nobody knows anything after the 1st 7 picks in this draft.

[Gomes3PC]

I think people are really underrating Love. He has a 6-11.25" wingspan, so I don't think he's totally undersized. He's built like a bull and when he gets into an NBA training regimen (like Al Jefferson), he will only get more chiseled. He has learned how to score in any number of ways from anywhere inside 18 feet, and even can hit the college 3. He's also one of the best passing PFs that have been around in a long time. I think he's going to turn out to be a better-scoring Brad Miller, giving something like 18-19 PPG, 10 RPG, and 5+ APG in his prime.

Of the rest of the draft though, outside of Rose/Beasley/Mayo/Bayless/Love, the only guy I think who has a shot at an All Star appearance is Marreese Speights. He's got great size and length, and is a complete player in the post already. Very similar to Al Jefferson, in that he's a classic low-post player and a liability on D. If he shows a willingness to improve, he can be a 20 PPG scorer and double digit rebounder. I wouldn't bet on it though, some people from Providence I know talk with Billy Donovan and he thinks Speights has exactly the wrong attitude, similar to a Mark Blount.

[Pogue Mahone]

I think that both Rose and Beasley are very good talents, guys who should at least reach All Star level.

Not to be an antagonista but I think Rose has the better chance of reaching that level. I think Beasley, barring a drastic improvement in his ability to put the ball on the deck, is a man caught between two positions. We'll see, of course, but I am not as high on Beasley as most.

I love this draft class, as a whole, btw. IMO, there are about 75-80 players worthy of being drafted. There are players who would be mid-to-late first round talent in most drafts that will be sitting there 2/3rds of the way into the second round. A lot of people thought this was going to be a top heavy draft (at the beginning of the year I was one of them) but I think it will eventually go down as incredibly deep draft, making up for the lack of star power with it's plethora of valued role players, specialists and solid starters.

Some may disagree but when you consider the following players:

Pat Calathes: Mocked to go somewhere in the 2nd RD. I think he profiles as a Vlad Rad/Mike Dunleavy, as a worst/best scenario. Look where each of those players where drafted. Sure, it is going to take a while with Calathes because he needs to continue to get stronger but he has a combination of little player skills (ball-handling, playmaking, handles), big man skills (rebounding, occasional blocked shot) and the ability to stretch the floor with his great outside shooting. Yes, he will never be a great 1-on-1 defender but he is a cerebral player who's length with help him and make him at least adequate as a team defender. Some people might think Kyle Korver meets Mo Peterson, perhaps, but I think his length makes him a bit different. Besides, neither of those players could rebound as well as he does.

James Mays: Mocked to be a late 2nd RD'er. A 6'8 ball thief, with a 35" one-step and pretty good quickness (he compares very favorably, physically-speaking, to Mike Beasley.) Sure, he may only profile as a defensive role player but the guy can block shots, create turnovers, hit the offensive glass -- in a lot of ways he reminds me of Rajon Rondo but from another position. If this is as weak a draft as many are saying, how does a player who creates/continues possessions for your team, at the rate he does, almost fall out the draft?

DeMarcus Nelson, George Hill, JJ Hickson, Billy Walker, Serge Ibaka, Richard Hendrix, JR Giddens, Shan Foster and Jamont Gordon could all be drafted in the 2nd RD despite having 1st RD talent. In fact, I like Hill, Nelson and Hendrix at 30 (assuming a few other players don't slide.)

[Dogen]

Pogue, you're one of the best talent evaluators on here and I'm glad to see that your vision of this draft's depth matches what I'm seeing. I don't consider this draft as having a lot of top-level talent, but there are going to be a number of quality players drafted late 1st- to mid second, IMO. Danny might capitalize on this by coming away with two decent role players. For instance, Chad Ford's latest mock has us taking CD-R and Sasha Kaun at 30 & 60. Well, I'd be very happy with getting two players who were just in the NCAA championship game. There are a number of other players available who might step in and be able to contribute next season.

I'm not opposed to drafting for potential and letting a player develop overseas or in Dev league, but I have a feeling that Danny is plying possum again this year and there are a few guys he covets at 30 and 2nd round. I think there will be a little wheeling and dealing during the draft for us, and I'm really looking forward to finding out how it pans out.