My take and ALL things Posey Here....

[Barry Lird]

What you're missing is that many of us who don't want Posey to get the money also want to win now. While I like Posey, I'd also like us to have some $$ to try and pry a guy like Zo away from Miami, to beat competing offers made to House, get a Kurt Thomas type, etc. You give all of the exception to Posey and you can't do those things, you can only use the vet minimum. At the end of the day, I think I'd rather have 3 solid, vetran backups instead of just Posey. I think that gives us a better chance to win now. So quit trying to straw-man anyone who doesn't want to spend every dime the team has on Posey into some (Please Use More Appropriate Word) "what will we do in 2011 if we sign Posey for five years?!?!" argument. That's not the issue, and I suspect you're bright enough to get that.

That's great that you are in win now mode too, cheapseats. Let me pose a hypothetical to you (and anyone else who cares to answer): If you felt that getting a particular player would put you over the top (i.e. winning a championship) this year (or next year), and that not having that player would be the difference between winning it and just advancing to say, the conference finals, or more simply not winning the championship, do you think it is worthwhile to sign him knowing that he will not be earning his paycheck in the final year(s) of his contract? Is it worth it to bring him on if you feel that he could be vital in winning a championship in years 1 and 2 of the contract?

If you could sign a guy (or guys) that could equal or more than equal his contributions to winning at a cheaper price, obviously you do it. I mean, Maggette, at 3 years younger would have been a safer bet at getting steady production throughout his contract, but then, that's why he ended up commanding 5 years/ 50 mil.

Someone, I believe Pete, commented about there being no guarantees that Posey can repeat his production of this past year. Yeah... so? There are no guarantees anybody on the roster can or will.

And as to diminishing returns over a long contract, I think it's a mortal lock that KG will be a shell of himself in 5 more years. Should we trade him now on account of that, or should we maximize his potential to help win a championship while he still IS highly productive? So, the argument that Posey will not produce in 4 years (as far as I'd go with him) is hollow unless you're applying it to our other aging players as well.

We have 3 positions of need right now. Much like last year going into free agency, we need a backup center, a backup PG, and a backup swing (and if said swing can also knock down a 3 and play some 4 for you, bonus to you).

What do we have with which to get these guys? We don't have much in the way of tradeable assets (counterproductive to trade any of the big 3 (at least this year)), so what we have is the MLE, the LLE, and vet min contracts. That's it.

If it were me, I'd opt to fill the 5 spot with a tall vet min guy (and like last year, I'd still keep a roster spot open and hope a veteran C gets bought out and wants to sign on for a chance at a championship). I'd give House the LLE (and I do think House would take that), and I'd give the MLE to Posey for 4 years if that's what it takes.

I think it's fantasy to think that we'll reload and continue to be championship contenders without taking a severe dip in wins for a couple of seasons as our Big 3's play deteriorates over the next few years, which is why I say sign Posey, as he'll deteriorate right beside the others, but at least for the next two years, all 4 of those guys should still be highly productive.

This argument about how San Antonio has managed contracts in the past as a counterargument to signing Posey or not, is not really apt to me. SA has had Duncan from the get go; straight out of college. They were not in now or never territory as the C's are, with the Big 3 not having come together until their 30's. I suspect SA's roster management, and the decisions that went into it would have been much different if their stars were in there 30's when they got them.

We will only be contenders if we have stars playing like all-stars. When the Big 3's production drops off, probably after the next two seasons (much like Posey's), if we do not have new stars to replace the Big 3's former contributions, we'll not be true contenders (much like when Chief, Larry, and McHale were no longer producing as they did up until the late 80s, after which, they were playoff teams, but not true contenders).

Thinking that the likes of "Perk/Powe/Walker/Giddens/Rondo ,(my projected youth core right now)" will be the core of a future championship team seems like wishful thinking to me. Could it happen? Sure. Is there a reasonable reason to think it will? I see no evidence of it.

An adept GM (Pres of Bskbl Ops) like Danny can and will rebuild when the time comes, and it's not going to take him any 10 or 20 years like the incompetents that ran things before him. He took a team going nowhere, tore it down, and built a championship in 5 years. Right now, he ought to concentrate entirely on maximizing GPA's limited window, and if he needs to repeat that process after a couple more years, so be it.

And Cheapseats, I'm not wedded to the idea of Posey, House, and (some serviceable vet center). If you can present a better trio that we can acquire with the resources we have, let's see it.

This is not about making up any straw men. I'm presenting what I think is the best scenario for winning in the next 2 years. Let's see yours.

And I'd like to see the answers to the hypothetical above. Oh, wth, here it is again:

If you felt that getting a particular player would put you over the top (i.e. winning a championship) this year (or next year), and that not having that player would be the difference between winning a championship, and not winning the championship, do you think it is worthwhile to sign him knowing that he will not be earning his paycheck in the final year(s) of his contract? Is it worth it to bring him on if you feel that he could be vital in winning a championship in years 1 and 2 of the contract?

Again, this is not a straw man, if you can get others in here that (you feel) provide you the same chance at winning a championship, but that would not be cap albatrosses in their last years, we'd all do it.

Like I said, I'd do the Posey deal, because I am pretty sure he CAN be a very important piece at least for 2 more years, even if he turned into an albatross in years 3 and 4. If we got just one more championship because what he provided made the difference between winning and losing over e.g. a James Jones, or similar, I'd make that deal with the devil, because Posey's effective shelf like ain't all that dissimilar to GPA's.

[dsorc]

If you felt that getting a particular player would put you over the top (i.e. winning a championship) this year (or next year), and that not having that player would be the difference between winning a championship, and not winning the championship, do you think it is worthwhile to sign him knowing that he will not be earning his paycheck in the final year(s) of his contract? Is it worth it to bring him on if you feel that he could be vital in winning a championship in years 1 and 2 of the contract?

Again, this is not a straw man, if you can get others in here that (you feel) provide you the same chance at winning a championship, but that would not be cap albatrosses in their last years, we'd all do it.

Like I said, I'd do the Posey deal, because I am pretty sure he CAN be a very important piece at least for 2 more years, even if he turned into an albatross in years 3 and 4. If we got just one more championship because what he provided made the difference between winning and losing over e.g. a James Jones, or similar, I'd make that deal with the devil, because Posey's effective shelf like ain't all that dissimilar to GPA's.

The problem with your scenario is that we have no way of knowing that we need Posey to put us over the top. And even then you ignore the possibility of other players being able to put us over the top. I think that if Rondo steps up his game we'll have enough to go over the hump for sure. We may not need a great bench just a good enough one and I think we can a good enough replacement for Posey if worst come to worst. There is no doubt Posey was an important piece last year and I'd love to have him back but it's not a wise business or basketball decision to just give him whatever he wants moneywise.

Here's what I would like to see:
Option 1: Posey resigns for the 20% raise and use MLE on a big. Give us the player we want and the flexibility we need to fill our other holes. I believe the contract would be the equivalent of about half the MLE so going up a little bit up from that may take up too much for the other scenarios.

Option 2: Split MLE between C and wing. Centers are always overpaid and all the good old centers don't look like they'll leave their team (Zo, Mutombo, K. Thomas). This means that the only way we can get a worthwhile backup C is if we dip into the MLE. Otherwise we're going to get stuck with a guy like Pollard again

Option 3: Re-sign TA and use the MLE on a big. I think Danny has a couple of guys ahead of TA but he's probably the fall back guy and I think we may be able to re-sign him to a certain prize without using the MLE. Note: I'm not saying use the whole MLE on the big. After all the whole argument being applied to Posey here can also be applied to Centers in general.

Available cheap wings that may give us quality bench production:
-Barnes
-Q. Ross
-Azubuike
-Mo Evans

Available Bigs
-Kwame
-Randolph Morris
-Elson
-Foyle
-Doleac

I think PG is one position we don't have to worry about as much since it should be easier to find a vet min guy capable of giving us 10 mins and hopefully Pruitt can step up if necessary.
PG options
House
Lue
Anthony Johnson
J. Vaughn
D. Armstrong

Now, if we somehow find a worthwhile big for the min or the LLE then it opens Option 4: MLE for Posey or another wing (Childress?) but hopefully for no more than 3 years. Long MLE contracts are what lead teams to cap hell. Would I be mad if Posey received the Full MLE, not really. I just think that the ideal situation we should be aiming for is to give half the MLE to a player at most. Balance out the present and the future.

[sully00]

I was going to start a new thread asking for a Posey stickey because no offense to Kefa, who I like a lot, I hate the title of this thread and frankly most of this thread was an awful read but it has picked up quite a bit in the last page or so.

So the facts are Boston has increased its 3 year 12 mil offer. Assuming it is anything besides a 4th year then that means that Boston has moved into using its MLE for Posey limiting their ability to add other pieces to compete for a championship.

I hope everyone that sits there and says that we know what Posey can do knows that the chances are that this year will be a tank no matter if it is for 3.5 mil or 5.5 mil that is what we know about Posey. I love the player but I hate the track record.

Worse than that the Spurs, the standard bearer of operating in this salary cap era, is out of the Posey hunt after signing Roger Mason for essentiall 3.5 mil per for 2 years. I can't imagine a bigger red flag than that.

I hate the idea of getting into a stupidity contest with the Cavs and Lakers. Both of these teams have proven their ability to spend ridiculous amounts of money on average basketball players beating them at this does not make us better.

[captain_cheapseats]

That's great that you are in win now mode too, cheapseats. Let me pose a hypothetical to you (and anyone else who cares to answer): If you felt that getting a particular player would put you over the top (i.e. winning a championship) this year (or next year), and that not having that player would be the difference between winning it and just advancing to say, the conference finals, or more simply not winning the championship, do you think it is worthwhile to sign him knowing that he will not be earning his paycheck in the final year(s) of his contract?

Ceteris paribus I'd absolutely sign that hypothetical guy, without hesitation. However there are two problems with your hypo in my opinion, assuming it was meant to apply to the Posey situation:

#1: it ignores the possibility of other available options that could put us "over the top" at a lesser cost (I realize that you address this point later in your post; I mention it here just to make sure you understand why I say "yes" to this hypo, but still don't want to get in a bidding war for Posey).

#2: Posey isn't good enough to be the difference between us winning a title and fizzling out in the conference finals, in my opinion. If you think he is then I can fully understand why you would want him so badly, but to me he just isn't that guy.

And as to diminishing returns over a long contract, I think it's a mortal lock that KG will be a shell of himself in 5 more years. Should we trade him now on account of that, or should we maximize his potential to help win a championship while he still IS highly productive? So, the argument that Posey will not produce in 4 years (as far as I'd go with him) is hollow unless you're applying it to our other aging players as well.

The big problem with this argument is that KG would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to replace, while Posey's production could be duplicated -- if not exceeded -- by other available options.

I think it's fantasy to think that we'll reload and continue to be championship contenders without taking a severe dip in wins for a couple of seasons as our Big 3's play deteriorates over the next few years, which is why I say sign Posey, as he'll deteriorate right beside the others, but at least for the next two years, all 4 of those guys should still be highly productive.

But you do understand that Posey wants his contract to stretch for 5 years, and that 5 years is well beyond what we have the Big Three together for, right? Allen is only tied up another two years.

And Cheapseats, I'm not wedded to the idea of Posey, House, and (some serviceable vet center). If you can present a better trio that we can acquire with the resources we have, let's see it.

I'm not sure I agree with you that we could still afford House if we gave Posey the full MLE....not so sure he'd bite on the LLE or vet min. But to answer your question, I'd like to see us make a run at Zo or Kurt Thomas for a big, using juust under half the MLE, use just over half to make a run at either of the wings from GS (Barnes and I-can't-spell-his-name), and bring in a point at the vet min, perhaps D. Armstrong.

[Barry Lird]

I hope everyone that sits there and says that we know what Posey can do knows that the chances are that this year will be a tank no matter if it is for 3.5 mil or 5.5 mil that is what we know about Posey. I love the player but I hate the track record.

His stats seem very consistent over the last 4 years. What are you basing that statement on?

I don't think anybody that thinks Posey is a good option purports to know how Posey, or for that matter, anybody else on the team will perform next year. Who can possibly know? You go by what you've already seen. His stats have been pretty consistent over the last several years. What I have seen is that he has been a major contributor on two championship teams in the last 3 years. From what I've seen, his contributions to winning seem to exceed the stats, because the stats certainly don't knock you over. I'm guessing Pierce wants him back so much because he thinks that what Posey brings to the team helps win rings (could be for the pre-game hugs though.).

I mean, none of this is to say that he's the only guy in the world that could capably fill his position (just that I don't personally see a better option among those remaining free agents at his position (what with Maggette off the table)).

Anyway, it's not about just one player. We have 3 positions to fill, so I'm sure Danny is thinking in terms of the best 3 players in the aggregate, and how best to divvy up the limited resources he's got to give out. Should be interesting over the next few days.

It's strictly a judgement call on Danny's part about what he feels Posey is worth, and for my money, Danny's earned trust on the judgement issue. He absolutely had the Midas touch last year (well, 'ceptin Pollard, that is...lol)

It's good to see people laying out their views on what ought to be done to fill out the roster instead of just sniping others ideas.

[Kefa461]

I was going to start a new thread asking for a Posey stickey because no offense to Kefa, who I like a lot, I hate the title of this thread and frankly most of this thread was an awful read but it has picked up quite a bit in the last page or so.

So the facts are Boston has increased its 3 year 12 mil offer. Assuming it is anything besides a 4th year then that means that Boston has moved into using its MLE for Posey limiting their ability to add other pieces to compete for a championship.

I hope everyone that sits there and says that we know what Posey can do knows that the chances are that this year will be a tank no matter if it is for 3.5 mil or 5.5 mil that is what we know about Posey. I love the player but I hate the track record.

Worse than that the Spurs, the standard bearer of operating in this salary cap era, is out of the Posey hunt after signing Roger Mason for essentiall 3.5 mil per for 2 years. I can't imagine a bigger red flag than that.

I hate the idea of getting into a stupidity contest with the Cavs and Lakers. Both of these teams have proven their ability to spend ridiculous amounts of money on average basketball players beating them at this does not make us better.

No offense taken, carry the ball, do the sticky, make it better.....you know whatever.......I just had a thought.....

[Fencer reregistered]

Before FA, I predicted that the Cs would pressure Posey to accept the non-MLE raises if they had a really great alternative for the money, and otherwise give him MLE money (with him staying).

I still think that.

We sure seem to be in the "otherwise" part.

If they don't give the money to Posey, what else will they do with it? Bill Walker isn't as important. They don't seem to be actively seeking PGs who'd require that level of money. Somebody who becomes available midseason will probably settle for the vet minimum. So that pretty much leaves:

• Wyc Grousbeck's pocket
• Backup center

Posey is more important than either.

I also don't think they're trying to preserve true salary cap space (as opposed to luxury tax leeway) a couple of years down the road. It's much more likely they'll keep the current stars around in reduced roles, or outright trade them, then let enough of them walk to make significant room.

[LongTimeFan]

There's two important things that Posey brought to the team last year and I believe that both can be replaced or are not needed.

The most important thing was that he was on the court to close out games with Rondo, Allen, Pierce & Garnett. This meant he defended the PF. He was our backup PF when push came to shove and he did a decent job

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8C.HTM

Not a great job, but his three point shooting did enough to open up the floor, and his defense on the 4 of 18.6 PER was OK given our strength everywhere else.

In house we have better defensive options in Powe and Perkins and both have championship experience. Powe defends the 4 at 13.5 PER. Perkins is a much better option in that he defends centers better than KG and KG is crushingly good defending opponents PF. In house we have better options for closing out games than Posey at the 4.

The other important thing Posey brought was the spiritual leadership to bring us from the losers of the NBA to the winners of the NBA. How much of that was real and how much was psychological really doesn't matter. What matters is we've made the journey. It's an entirely diffent thing now that we are the champions to continue to act like champions. The spiritual need, as it were, is far less.

DA bargaining position reflects the reality of Posey's value to the team now and in the future. He's not essential. Without Posey we need a backup SF to rest Pierce that plays defense.

[Jammer]

If you don't spend it on Posey, what are the options?

If you look at centers,

the two that stand out are:

Mutombo (listed at 42, could be older, in 2008 in 15 mpg did 3 ppg, 5.7 rpg)
Mourning (age 38, one kidney, coming back from ACL injury) in 2008 in 15 mpg did 6 ppg, 3.7 rpg

Point guards:

Jannero Pargo (same agent as Posey, will be available if New Orleans gives full MLE to Posey)
Jason Williams
Tyronn Lue
Eddie House

Ideally, the Celtics should try to land two of the above 4 point guards (I'd also ship Pruitt off for a 2nd round pick, there are 11 teams with trade exceptions and 3 more with cap room for him).

But if you don't know that you're going to be getting one of those two centers and one of the above point guards (in addition to House); then you give the full MLE to Posey, rather than not get him at all.

The 4th year versus third year issue is something else, but the Celtics don't have a choice unless the alternative to not getting Posey is certainty that the MLE will bring in a combo like

Pargo/Mutombo
Pargo/Mourning
Jason Williams/Mutombo
Jason Williams/Mourning

And I'd still want Eddie and his shot on the bench for emergency situations.

[buckner1976]

There's two important things that Posey brought to the team last year and I believe that both can be replaced or are not needed.

The most important thing was that he was on the court to close out games with Rondo, Allen, Pierce & Garnett. This meant he defended the PF. He was our backup PF when push came to shove and he did a decent job

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS8C.HTM

Not a great job, but his three point shooting did enough to open up the floor, and his defense on the 4 of 18.6 PER was OK given our strength everywhere else.

In house we have better defensive options in Powe and Perkins and both have championship experience. Powe defends the 4 at 13.5 PER. Perkins is a much better option in that he defends centers better than KG and KG is crushingly good defending opponents PF. In house we have better options for closing out games than Posey at the 4.

The other important thing Posey brought was the spiritual leadership to bring us from the losers of the NBA to the winners of the NBA. How much of that was real and how much was psychological really doesn't matter. What matters is we've made the journey. It's an entirely diffent thing now that we are the champions to continue to act like champions. The spiritual need, as it were, is far less.

DA bargaining position reflects the reality of Posey's value to the team now and in the future. He's not essential. Without Posey we need a backup SF to rest Pierce that plays defense.

imo we dodged bullets last year anytime we played posey at extended periods at the 4. we forced kg up to center and then we lacked length inside. kg averaged 32 mpg last year and a good portion of them were at center his worst defending position. id rather him spend more time at the 4 where he will be needed more and more now that the east is improving. i dont think were gonna be as lucky next season with that and im betting danny knows this.

[LongTimeFan]

Buckner:

You are right, we did dodge a bullet as you put it. But Posey at the 4 was the team we put out to close games last year. GPA is / was that good. Powe and Perk were not ready.

My point is they are now. If you look at how they performed in the playoffs compared to Posey, they did well. Our development continues.

The other thing is that GPA are just incredibly good on the defensive end. You and I and the three of them are going to be better than most NBA teams. Well maybe that's an exageration but Rond & Powe or Rondo and Perk will dominate from now on on the defensive end.

GPA can get decent shots.

[shackles10]

Posey was also so important last year because for the majority of the season he was the only guy on the team to win it all. He provided that championship experience. Now the whole team has the experience so it's not as important. If we do resign him Posey will be a very important player for us. If we dont' resign him we won't be a bad team or anything though. I'd be ok with overpaying him as long as it was in the short term. Overpaying him in his mid to late 30's and when we need to retool because fo the age/contract situations of the Big 3 is something I am not in favor of that at all.

[Bad-Thoma]

I'm against spending the MLE on Posey myself. The clutch 3 pointers in the playoffs were beautiful, but I thought his D was over-rated. Pierce was the man who carried this team defensively against LeBron and Kobe, the 2 biggest individual threats we faced, Posey was abused by their foot speed. He's not getting any faster. I like him, I like his intangibles, when you value him you should throw away the stat sheet because it doesn't tell you squat, but if he wants to chase the big check instead of taking the offered raise power to him, and no offense taken. It's just that we're smarter than that, hopefully. He's a nice role player who is going to fall off hard in a couple years, IMO. Right now Posey is at the max dollar value he will ever reach, which means right now is the wrong time to lay out the money when we have a bigger hole to fill with PJ likely retiring. Personally I thought PJ meant more to us in the playoffs defensively than James, replacing him is a bigger priority IMO, and bigs don't come cheap. In Danny I trust though, even when I see Scal

[sully00]

His stats seem very consistent over the last 4 years. What are you basing that statement on?

Stats are just that. Yeah he can score 7 points and grab 4 rebounds. But 4 years ago in Memphis he only played in 50 games and shot 35% from the field and 30% from 3pt. 2 years ago in Miami his offense was the consistent but he was no longer able to be the primary wing defender and was moved to the bench behind Kapono and Eddie Jones. The last year in Miami has as much to do with Riley as it does with Posey, but he obviously had a less than all business approach to things. If he is willing to **** with Riley what is he going to do Doc?

There is no reason to think that Posey can't have learned from his past. I was simply refuting the idea that was being floated that we should give him the money because he has a proven track record. I want Posey back but just at a contract that he is worth and that isn't 5.5-6 mil a year. You also hit the nail on the head as far as us needing to fill 3 spots not just one. I would love to see us come out of this with Posey, Livingston and maybe even Danny's love child Robert Swift but that isn't going to happen using minimum salalry slots.

No offense taken, carry the ball, do the sticky, make it better.....you know whatever.......I just had a thought.....

I wasn't trying to say anything to you directly more just the idea of starting a new thread everyday that everyone says the exact same thing again for 4 pages then it slides off the first page and we start again. This one seems to be holding.

Great point Shackles about championship experience, the whole team has made it over the mountain now. Not that what he brings isn't still important and valuable but it just isn't so necessary for the development of the team.

I just really think that James has about 2 maybe 3 years left and then he is going to fall off.

[sully00]

On the positive side the Spurs are out, not a lot of chatter coming out of CLE who has its own FA's to sign and the Lakers are pursuing a truck load of crazy in Ron Ron and Kenny T.

[Kefa461]

The scuttlebutt is Snyder signing with us.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/bask ... position=5

Does that mean we have lost Posey or House........

[dsorc]

The scuttlebutt is Snyder signing with us.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/bask ... position=5

Does that mean we have lost Posey or House........

Well there's also the rumor that Posey was offered the full MLE by Boston from the herald. Personally I think it should be Snyder or Posey and wouldn't be surprised if Boston if using Snyder as a negotiation ploy/backup plan to try to get Posey to sign for 3 years instead of 4.

[armageddon]

I really hope that we can get Posey with the 20% raise. We need the full MLE to get a backup center. I feel that we could get Krstic for the MLE and I'd be willing to lose out on Posey for this. Posey and his agent know that signing with Boston is a no lose situation. If he goes to another team for a long term MLE sized contract thereby eating up their salary flexibility, he better help bring a championship or the fans will hate him and the owners will be trying to dump him. No player wants that. The big question is with Rondo and Perk improving and the bench being equal can we still win without Posey.

[armageddon]

Another thing that we do not know is what the ownership is willing to pay for. The team's salary is already at $71 million so every dollar spent is doubled due to being at/over the luxury cap. Maybe they are only willing to sign one big contract and not both Posey at the 20% bump and another player with the MLE. However this would only be a one year burden.

[Celts17Pride]

Another thing that we do not know is what the ownership is willing to pay for. The team's salary is already at $71 million so every dollar spent is doubled due to being at/over the luxury cap. Maybe they are only willing to sign one big contract and not both Posey at the 20% bump and another player with the MLE. However this would only be a one year burden.

Posey is not taking the 20% bump. The Celtics will use the full MLE on Posey and fill out the roster with minimum level guys like Cassell, Morris, Snyder, Andersen, POB etc. Maybe they will resign House with the 20% bump but if Posey gets the full MLE then I doubt it. They will go with Rondo, Pruitt & Cassell. IMO.