2014 trade deadline discussion thread

hermes · Post #1 » by **hermes** » Thu Jul 3, 2014 2:36 pm

probably a good time to get this up so we can have a place to talk about, rumors, and deals

here is a nice article about it
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2014- ... ne-primer/

cubs one of the big sellers out there, i agree that it might look like last year with hammel being moved followed by shark later - wonder who else is on the block? does it depend on who is ready to come up from triple a?

Kizz Fastfists · Post #2 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Sat Jul 5, 2014 3:46 am

Samardzija and Hammel are gone. Schierholtz, Valbuena and Bonifacio (if he can get healthy) are probably the others being shopped.

hermes · Post #3 » by **hermes** » Sun Jul 6, 2014 12:50 am

theo says the selloff is almost over - this is the last year he expects us to be sellers at the deadline
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/po ... api_public

exciting

Kizz Fastfists · Post #4 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Sun Jul 6, 2014 1:05 am

There isn't much left to sell off. Valbuena is probably the only player left that would be back next year if not traded. Next year we start to see the future with Baez, Bryant, Alcantara with a good chance Russell and Soler make it at some point next year as well. They probably go after at least one long-term pitcher this off-season with the payroll set to be somewhere around $50M if they don't sign anyone, it will finish around $90M this year after trading Samardzija and Hammel.

They might sign another one-year pitcher that could get flipped if they aren't contending. However, they could also go after two big time guys like Scherzer and Lester wot go with Arrieta, Wood and Hendricks/EJax/Beeler and still keep the payroll in the $95M range. Lots of options with the depth of the farm system and 3 of the top 10 prospects in baseball. They could go get a bat like Giancarlo Stanton or an arm like David Price through trade as their first move then add another piece or two in FA. Something like Baez, Vogelbach and Amaya for Stanton would show potential FAs the team was turning the corner and would make the team more appealing. It would also give them a 3rd established bat so guys like Bryant and Alcantara wouldn't feel as much pressure from the fans and media.

hermes · Post #5 » by **hermes** » Sun Jul 6, 2014 3:27 am

you think wood stays?

Kizz Fastfists · Post #6 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Sun Jul 6, 2014 4:20 am

He isn't an FA until after 2016. I guess someone could make a stupid offer for him, but I don't see any reason for them to move him. I think Arrieta and Wood are the only guys that are locks for the rotation next year. Probably Straily also. If they are going to move Wood I'd expect it to be in the off-season if they have secured a better pitcher to force him out of the rotation.

hermes · Post #7 » by **hermes** » Sun Jul 6, 2014 2:57 pm

jackson is a lock isn't he? what else are they going to do with him?

karch34 · Post #8 » by **karch34** » Sun Jul 6, 2014 4:43 pm

I think they're also at the ideal number of minor league at Bats they wanted to get Baez, Bryant, and company, so they pretty much have to make the first big move next year. I also think it makes a lot of sense to bring the guys up together so one doesn't have to have all the spotlight and pressure.

hermes · Post #9 » by **hermes** » Sun Jul 6, 2014 5:24 pm

do they start coming up this year? (probably after the deadline)

Post #10 » by **GYBE** » Sun Jul 6, 2014 10:42 pm

Alcantara will come up this year. Baez hasn't had a great year, so I don't see him in the majors yet. Bryant is destroying everything, but it probably makes financial sense to leave him down until next May or so. If they bring him up late this year, he pretty much has to start next year with the team, which burns a year of control.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #11 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:24 am

I think they expected Bryant to have a hiccup in AAA. If he keeps crushing and Baez's recent success continues, he has something like 12 BBs and 0 Ks in his last 10 games, I could see them both being up in September and starting next year in Chicago. Alcantara probably comes up as soon as a position player is moved. A lot of it depends on their time frame as well. If they are set to go for it next year then moving up Baez and Bryant in September and having them up for Opening Day next year, like Theo did with Pedroia, makes sense.

They are out of players to trade, for the most part. The prospects are getting close. Russell and Soler should both destroy AA and either finish the season in AAA or start there next year and be up mid-season. Schwarber probably starts next year in AA on the Kris Bryant fast track as an advanced college bat after what I anticipate will be a strong showing in the AFL. Schwarber could end up being traded depending on how those ahead of him progress. Bruno probably gets bumped to AAA when Alcantara moves up giving him a chance to be ready if someone falters next year. Amaya probably goes to AA. The Cubs have multiple waves of prospects to throw at each position now.

The bigger question is do they make a trade for an established player, i.e. Giancarlo Stanton, to try to show FAs they are serious. Do they just go hard after pitching and throw their position player prospects out there until they find the right combination? Do they trade some position players for pitching? The Cubs have a LOT of money to spend this off-season. If they don't spend any significant money they could easily put a $50M team out there next year. I just can't see that happening unless they do something crazy, and nearly impossible, like make a trade with Baltimore for Bundy and Gausman to be their top of the rotation arms. I think they HAVE to land at least one of Scherzer and Lester this off-season even if it means overpaying.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #12 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 12:28 am

hermes wrote:jackson is a lock isn't he? what else are they going to do with him?

They could put him in the bullpen. Maybe Bosio focuses his powers on him this off-season and he has a resurgence. Jackson has been VERY unlucky as a Cub. If his BABIP would just normalize he'd be doing fine. His FIP, SIERA and xFIP have pretty much been in line with the rest of his career.

karch34 · Post #13 » by **karch34** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 1:27 am

I think they spend big money in free agency, but whether it's position or pitching probably depends on what call ups we see by the end of the year. I can see them thinking Stanton might no be necessary if Bryant, Baez, and Alcantra all come up and have reasonable success. I think it would show they're serious, but is it needed if all were looking at filling is 1 or 2 OF spots? Probably makes more sense to overpay for two SP at that point.

A $50 mill payroll won't likely be tolerated by the fans, even if a lot of the future core is in the majors. It's going to be interesting this offseason because the initial gathering assets and financial flexibility stage should be over.

hermes · Post #14 » by **hermes** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 1:49 am

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
hermes wrote:jackson is a lock isn't he? what else are they going to do with him?

They could put him in the bullpen. Maybe Bosio focuses his powers on him this off-season and he has a resurgence. Jackson has been VERY unlucky as a Cub. If his BABIP would just normalize he'd be doing fine. His FIP, SIERA and xFIP have pretty much been in line with the rest of his career.

it always seem to be the one bad inning with him, he'll pitch fine and then it all goes to heck on him for an inning

Kizz Fastfists · Post #15 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 2:38 am

karch34 wrote:A $50 mill payroll won't likely be tolerated by the fans, even if a lot of the future core is in the majors. It's going to be interesting this offseason because the initial gathering assets and financial flexibility stage should be over.

That's the key. The prospects have, to date, panned out. Bryant and Alcantara are treating AAA like their play thing at this point. Baez appears to have turned the corner. Bruno is crushing AA and should get promoted soon. Soler has killed everything he has seen, but needs to stay healthy. Russell had a strong start in AA before the hamstring injury. Schwarber is killing A ball and should be in AA next year after the AFL, similar path to Bryant as an advanced college bat. Amaya should be in AA when Bruno gets promoted as he is thumping high A.

I just don't think they can justify signing a pair of one-year pitchers like Hammel and Feldman next year. They may only sign one of Lester and Scherzer, but they have to land one of them. Even if they expect Arrieta, Wood, Straily and EJax to be the rest of the rotation. If Theo wants to be the guy who broke the slump in both Boston and Chicago his clock is ticking. He promised his wife they would only be in Chicago for 5 years. As of 6 months ago she is planning on holding him to that.

NW7 · Post #16 » by **NW7** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 3:08 am

Kizz Fastfists wrote:I just don't think they can justify signing a pair of one-year pitchers like Hammel and Feldman next year.

When they announced the Russell deal, Theo said he hoped this is the last time the Cubs are "obvious sellers" come the deadline. Hopefully we can infer that they aren't going to be signing any one year deal pitchers in hopes of flipping them in a few months. Considering the Cubs payroll commitment for next season and the influx of talent scheduled to arrive in Chicago the next 12 months via the minors, it'd be nice if they targeted two big time pitchers. It's probably greedy, but they'll certainly have the money. Adding someone like Lester and Scherzer would be quite nice. 8-)

Kizz Fastfists · Post #17 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 4:18 am

Completely agree. They have the chance to add both Scherzer and Lester and keep the payroll under $95M. I just hope Bryant keeps forcing the issue and they end up having to call up Bryant and Baez in September. That will pretty much lock them into the Opening Day lineup next year. If they don't call them up in September they can keep them down for a few weeks at the start of next season in the name of service time.

I fully expect to see Bryant, Baez, Soler, Russell and Soler up by the end of July 2015. Assuming none of them get moved for a proven player.

karch34 · Post #18 » by **karch34** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 4:19 am

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
karch34 wrote:
I just don't think they can justify signing a pair of one-year pitchers like Hammel and Feldman next year. They may only sign one of Lester and Scherzer, but they have to land one of them. Even if they expect Arrieta, Wood, Straily and EJax to be the rest of the rotation. If Theo wants to be the guy who broke the slump in both Boston and Chicago his clock is ticking. He promised his wife they would only be in Chicago for 5 years. As of 6 months ago she is planning on holding him to that.

Totally agree. I think the fans have bought into the rebuild more than Theo could've hoped. The benefit is that the moves seem to be paying off. Obviously getting an Arietta helps as I don't think anyone expected that good of a haul for Feldman. But the patience is only going to last so long. The one place they aren't deep is arms so they have to get at least one big name as you mentioned.

hermes · Post #19 » by **hermes** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 6:02 am

Kizz Fastfists wrote: He promised his wife they would only be in Chicago for 5 years. As of 6 months ago she is planning on holding him to that.

wait, what?

Kizz Fastfists · Post #20 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 7:31 am

hermes wrote:
Kizz Fastfists wrote: He promised his wife they would only be in Chicago for 5 years. As of 6 months ago she is planning on holding him to that.

wait, what?

Short version. Theo promised his wife they would only be in Chicago for 5 years. She, begrudgingly, allowed him to take the job and take her and their kids away from their families in New England. Last I heard from my source, who knows them both, but is closer to his wife, she is planning on holding him to that 5 years. Now, keep in mind I am getting the information 3rd hand. His wife to the sister of the girl I live with to me. However, everyone in the chain is a Cubs fan, except Theo's wife, so I trust this information.

Anyhow, I really don't think it is an issue, because there is no chance he goes back to work for the Red Sox and I figure it was just something to tell her to get here to sign off. Once she signed off you can forget the 5 years because he has to go where the work is. However, she still tells her friends she's planning on holding him to it. We've all told out girls things that we had no intentions of being held to get them to agree to something. I think the worst case is that she somehow holds him to it, or he actually was serious, and he goes to work for a West Coast team to get her closer to her family after his contract is up at the end of 2016.

Then Hoyer gets promoted to President with McLeod taking over as GM. McLeod passing on the GM interview in San Diego actually has me considering that they might have had that planned out from day 1 if he was serious about just being here for one contract. Even if it plays out that way I'm fine with it. Theo will have brought the organization from the 1960s into the 2010s and put in systems and personnel that will allow them to flourish even if he leaves. They still have Tim Wilken in the front office who can take McLeod's job if McLeod is promoted to GM.