New Orleans increases the probability that Posey's gone

[campybatman]

Based on the rumor and this latest bit of news. I'm now beginning to come around to the idea that Posey will sign elsewhere. The Hornets sound desperate...

James Posey remains the most coveted unrestricted free agent still on the market and New Orleans is being increasingly described as perhaps the biggest threat to Boston keeping him.

The champs are said to be reluctant to offer the 31-year-old a deal longer than three years starting at the $5.6 million midlevel exception, but the Celtics are bracing for a difficult decision depending on how high rival suitors are willing to bid, and given Posey's immeasurable contributions to their title run.

Getting Posey would be a huge coup for the Hornets, who are desperate to fortify their thin bench and import a glue guy knows how to win, as Posey has proven in Miami and Boston.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/s ... ews-080712



This is the Hornets rumor that I'd posted about in another thread that was revealed on CB.



http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?op ... ic=21140.0

[campybatman]

Several of the Celtics will be in Boston on Monday for the preview of the new DVD on their championship season. Rondo, Pierce, Perk, Powe, House and Posey will all be promoting it individually around town on Monday and Tuesday also. You can click here for a schedule of where they will be. The majority of the Celtics will be back in LA this week for the taping of the ESPYs. KG, Doc and the Celtics team are all up for awards. The only Celtics not expected to be there are Tony Allen and Scot Pollard. Life is busy for the World Champions.

http://celticsgreen.blogspot.com/2008/0 ... dates.html

[Jammer]

The giveaway is that the Hornets have not yet re-signed Jannero Pargo,

also a Mark Barltlestein client,

rumored to be looking for a 3 year deal at $9 million ($3 million per).

Obviously, if the Hornets commit that much of the MLE to Pargo,

Posey is out of the picture.

So, it would seem that Posey may be first in line.

That article implies, though, that New Orleans only has a 3 year deal at the MLE.

It makes no mention whether the Hornets, in their desperation,

offered raises (up to 8%) in years 2 and 3 on the starting salary of $5.6 million.

The Celtics have not offered raises.

After seeing what Chris Duhon got from the Knicks for a two year deal, all bets are off with Posey.

[TheCelticTruth]

lol, you replied to your own post bonsai?

what i am trying to decide right now, and its not a knock on pose, is what had more impact: posey off the bench for us and playing for miami, or KG/PP/RA and in '06 Shaq/Wade taking enough attention on by themselves to allow posey to excel at what he does best?

because while the intangibles and defense he brings are phenomenal, we didnt really need him to bring anything else except occasional threes. if a team is looking at the role he played for us, and pays him based on that, but needs him to perform a greater role...there is a large potential that he is not nearly as valuable to them as they think.

posey brings great value, but he is not a top flight starter, nor is he an equal offensive player to his defense.

obviously they'll get the same intangibles, which are a massive plus, dont get me wrong.

yet i feel like it is akin to an issue like this: what if perk was hurt significantly and we had to play KG at center a lot? he wouldnt have been as effective. or what if paul pierce or ray allen were out for an extended time frame? it would be a stretch to say that posey would have been as effective as a starter as he was as a key rotation player.

like manu. we all know he is a great player for the spurs, but he is obviously not the same player when he starts as he is off the bench.

[Rocky5000]

Cya later James. Sign House, TA, and Azubuike or Miles (if his workout was indeed impressive, and not an Ainge jedi-mind trick, like O'Bryant being winded.). That's all we need. Posey would be playing fewer minutes this year anyways with the emergence of Leon as the backup PF. To this team, he's not worth what he's asking. I'm sure Posey will do well on the Hornets with Paul finding him for open 3s.

[TheCelticTruth]

Cya later James. Sign House, TA, and Miles (if his workout was indeed impressive, and not an Ainge jedi-mind trick, like O'Bryant being winded.). That's all we need. Posey would be playing fewer minutes this year anyways with the emergence of Leon as the backup PF. To this team, he's not worth what he's asking. I'm sure Posey will do well on the Hornets with Paul finding him for open 3s.

those are mostly my feelings. i would give pose three years, but i would like to keep some of the mle, not give the entire thing.

i have serious doubts, as stated above, that posey will be as effective for an inferior supporting cast. as key as he was for both teams, boston and miami were title teams with a lot of talent. sure a lot of it was concentrated in the big three and the diesel/flash combo, but that says something right there because paul is their only star. i like david west and always have, but ill honestly be surprised if he gets much better than he was last year, and wouldnt be surprised if last year was the best season of his career when all is said and done. unless chandler emerges further, im not sure they can be much better.

how much better can chris paul get? he is already doing just about everything youd ever want a pg to do. is there much upside on that roster as currently constituted? i dont think so, and if they lose pargo to sign posey, thats big, because he was a key off the bench for them. losing pargo for pose is an upgrade i think, but how much do you improve when you lose a key bench guy to add a key bench guy? its incremental i think

[grantlongforpresident]

Cya later James. Sign House, TA, and Azubuike or Miles (if his workout was indeed impressive, and not an Ainge jedi-mind trick, like O'Bryant being winded.). That's all we need. Posey would be playing fewer minutes this year anyways with the emergence of Leon as the backup PF. To this team, he's not worth what he's asking. I'm sure Posey will do well on the Hornets with Paul finding him for open 3s.

Posey gets no respect. rocky you are a crackhead if you think that Azubuike or Darius Miles will even come close to replicating Posey's impact on a game.

[TheCelticTruth]

Cya later James. Sign House, TA, and Azubuike or Miles (if his workout was indeed impressive, and not an Ainge jedi-mind trick, like O'Bryant being winded.). That's all we need. Posey would be playing fewer minutes this year anyways with the emergence of Leon as the backup PF. To this team, he's not worth what he's asking. I'm sure Posey will do well on the Hornets with Paul finding him for open 3s.

Posey gets no respect. rocky you are a crackhead if you think that Azubuike or Darius Miles will even come close to replicating Posey's impact on a game.

posey deserves his respect, but we have to be careful not to overvalue him either. was his 06-07 season a fluke? or, as some of the thought and evidence shows throughout his career, is he an up and down player in terms of performance? he was at times both a great and poor player for denver, and the same in memphis.

i seriously doubt that unless miles was as healthy as he ever was he could have a similar impact to pose, but azubuike is a maybe because he is young and still developing. i thought he had permanently damaged his developmental arc by leaving UK so early, but he has done quite well considering, so ive decided to never count kelenna out again

[ParticleMan]

i think a lot depends on how the team feel Giddens will develop. he could be a long defensive stopper that posey is. also walker, tho i think bill will be further behind. obviously next year Pose would be much better, but what about the year after? and the year after that? pose will be in his mid-30's, in decline, and making $6-7 mil/yr. if Giddens/Walker are going to be better than him in 2 yrs, then do we really need to give him 4 years just to guarantee that we are better in his 1st year, and handicap us from then on?

it's a tough call, only because our window with the big 3 is right now, but long-term it doesn't make huge sense to give Posey 4 yrs of MLE money.

[TheCelticTruth]

to build on PM's point, sure our window is "now" with the Big 3, but how exactly do we categorize "now" this past season and next season? ray may be a slightly different story, but it certainly doesnt look like PP and KG can only eke out one more year of top notch basketball. in fact, paul pierce has never looked like a better all around basketball player to me. so if the C's feel like posey is better than giddens this year, but are relatively sure giddens can contribute similarly in '09-'10, ill take a small step back this year to maintain the flexibility. if posey is the only guy we "lose" but rondo, perk, powe, davis, and pruitt are all better, we may not even take a step back

[Rocky5000]

Cya later James. Sign House, TA, and Azubuike or Miles (if his workout was indeed impressive, and not an Ainge jedi-mind trick, like O'Bryant being winded.). That's all we need. Posey would be playing fewer minutes this year anyways with the emergence of Leon as the backup PF. To this team, he's not worth what he's asking. I'm sure Posey will do well on the Hornets with Paul finding him for open 3s.

Posey gets no respect. rocky you are a crackhead if you think that Azubuike or Darius Miles will even come close to replicating Posey's impact on a game.

Like TheCelticTruth said, only if Miles is healthy, if he's healthy he's a better player than Posey. If he's not, well there's no need to sign him.

With Azubuike, statistically you're not losing anything, but you do lose the intangibles that Posey brings. Are these important to our team? Of course, but it's not worth agreeing to have Posey around until he's 35 or 36.

I believe we can replace Posey with a combination of 3 guys, Giddens, TA, and a FA like Azubuike. Those 3 guys should together make up for any loss of 'intangibles'. Like I said, with Leon playing well, there's no need to play Posey at the 4, where he spent 12.5 minutes(half his minutes last year.) So if his only duty is to backup Paul during the regular season, he'll only be getting 12-13 minutes a game. Is that worth the money? No way.

In the playoffs Posey did play more minutes at SF, when Paul was pushed to SG, but that's unlikely to happen in the regular season, and didn't work out that well in the playoffs. Statistically, when playing SF, Posey actually stunk.
http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/07BOS7C.HTM

Maybe it was the guys he was going up against, but an opponent per of 19 in pretty poor defense.

Furthermore, our regular season stats, show that Posey was only the 10th most valuable player on the team.
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708BOS.HTM

Posey made some big shots in the playoffs, and had a big steal versus Detroit, but he's not an All-star player and he's pretty easily replaced. Statistically his production is nothing special, and his defense is particularly overrated. We're a worse team when Posey is backing up the 4 instead of Powe, a fact that Doc seems to have discovered in the playoffs. If he wants to come back for 3 years, MLE, that's great. But I'm not going to shed any tears if the guy ends up somewhere else. 12-16 minutes of backup SF can be easily filled with the players I suggested.

[grantlongforpresident]

win NOW! sign posey. it isn't that complicated.

I don't want to speculate about 4 years from now, but i'm not convinced posey will suck in 4 years like everyone else seems to think. either way, this team won a championship don't mess with the ingrediants. if you are slighly cash strapped in year 4 and we've been to the finals in 2 of the previous 3 years i'm not crying like a baby. No Posey = No Championship last year. No Posey this year = Significantly reduced championship probability. We have a window. Go for the jugular!

Also, i liked him in Denver, not sure why the consensus is that he wasn't good there.

[grantlongforpresident]

Rocky if you bury your head into statistics you will miss the point.

[meatball sub]

We just won the title, winning NOW isn't as important as maintaining the financial flexibility to compete for years to come. Sure we're going after #18 this year, but we shouldn't give Posey a contract based on what he did in 07-08. It's been posted on this forum before, you pay a guy based on what you think he'll do in the future. If you think Posey is going to produce like he did in the playoffs for the next 4 years, then I think you're out of your mind. We all love Posey, but the guy is not worth the full MLE for 4 years as a 31 year old role player. Signing Posey for longer than we have GPA under contract for doesn't make sense at all, btw.

If Posey wants the security of an extra year at the full MLE then good for him, I wish him all the luck in the world. Yes, Posey was a integral part of #17, but that doesn't mean we have to pay him what he should have made last season for the next 4 years. He was the one that signed for so cheap to win another ring! I wanted Posey back for our original offer since that's what he's worth, IMO. I don't have a problem with signing him to the MLE for 3 years, but that's most likely not going to happen. Let some other team overpay him.

[Celtics_85]

With all the reports that are coming in I believe that nobody is offering more than three years at MLE money for Posey. It seems as though Posey is holding out for a team to give him that fourth year on the deal. I have said it before and will still say it now, I can understand that Posey wants as much money as possible, but it seems like it is all about the money and not about wanting to win more championships. Ainge has uped his offer to Posey for MLE money and Posey and his agent want to still play the game. Posey is not an all-star and is trying to negotiate as if he were one, yes he is important to this team, but not enough to keep them hostage for a long period of time if he is going to walk to a team willing to give that 4th year. How long does Ainge give him before he says to take the deal or we are looking elsewhere?

[spf211]

People are losing sight of the actuality of our window, IMO, by looking at Posey's cap implications beyond three years down the line.

With a re-signed Posey, the Celtics stand to extend their current window for the next two years with an outside shot at a third -- depending on how Ray & Pierce age. But let's face it, two years from now Posey is not the issue to making this team competitive -- financially or otherwise.

The main issue we face is going to be replacing the production of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett -- likely in that order. Simply having the MLE available -- or being under the cap (it's never happening with all three on our roster, or even with just Pierce & Garnett) -- is not going to be enough to replace the production of Ray Allen. Period. Exclamation point. Exclamation point. Exclamation point.

As we've seen this offseason, even players with talent remotely comprable to a Ray Allen (IE: Corey Maggette) are not signing for the MLE -- even if that means going to play for a horrible team (IE: the Warriors). Anyone trying to convince you that Posey's salary for a 4th or 5th year is going to be the difference between extending the Celtics' competitive window is out of their mind.

The window is now. The Celtics will find it difficult to repeat next year without Posey. Two years from now, Ray Allen's productivity will be in serious question. At best, the Celtics can hope to maintain the current level of production from GPA for the next two years and they should do what they need to keep Posey, even if it means overpaying, as he's arguably as important to this team as their next best player (Rondo).

The bottom line is the Celtics are not going to go out and sign an impact MLE player or free agent in the next five years that will be as important as signing Posey this offseason. They might trade for an impact player but in that case $6 million for Posey might come in handy as they can take back a larger salary or package him to take back that salary. Remember it took a while to get from Walker to LaFrentz to Ratliff to Garnett but it happened.

When Ray Allen or Pierce drops off the Celtics aren't bringing back talent by getting under the cap and signing someone -- they're going to have to trade or hope they luck out with a draft pick to develop that player internally. Posey is not the poison pill -- the Celtics tried to play things shrewdly, but the league picked up on their success formula.

[spf211]

Just for some perspective on the salary numbers --

Ray Allen's $18 million comes off the books in 2010.

If the Celtics decide Ray is too old and do not want to re-sign him, here's what the salary picture looks like for players we can probably guarantee will still be on the team:

Garnett - $19 million
Pierce - $21.5 million
Perkins - $4 million
Rondo - Salary that has to start at $3.7 million, but will likely be at least $6 million

Without Ray we'll probably be tied up in at least $50 million.

And you're at the salary cap. Or close to it. Nowhere near the $8-10 million under the cap you would need to sign a viable 2/3 alternative to replace Ray Allen's production.

Keep in mind this all assumes the Celtics have no other contracts on the roster in 2010 -- no Giddens, Walker, Powe, Davis, Pruitt, or whatever 2nd rounder comes down the line in 2009 and not signing out draft picks in 2010.

Possible? Yes.

Highly unlikely? Yes.

Sorry Wyc & Co., pony up, you won't be crying about Posey pushing you into luxury tax land when another championship or two re-establishes your franchise and shoots the value back through the roof on what you bought it for from Gaston.

Ideally, the Celtics need to see how Ray does next year and start thinking about what his $18 million can bring back in a trade in the ensuing years -- and that's how they're going to bridge between GPA and whatever comes next.

Boston can benefit for a period here where superstars like LeBron, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard are still finding there feet while the older class with Tim Duncan sits it out and the Pistons dismantle themselves. The Celtics' biggest competition for the next two years will probably come from LA, and after what we saw in the Finals they have a lot to correct before they can win a title -- it isn't just a matter of getting Andrew Bynum back.

[bruno sundov]

They shouldnt be worried about4-5 years from now. If the MLE player is going to break them then they have bigger problems than one would thnk. Also IF you signed him to a four year deal he would be off the books in 2012. That isn' that far. Coincides with the bigs 3 contracts also.

[Celtics_85]

If Posey were so important to this league then why hasn't a team signed him as of yet? Nobody wants to give himthat 4th year, yet you want the Celtics to because he is that important? That must tell you something about what he is asking for, more than he is worth, and if he were that good a player he would have been signed by someone by now. He is a role player and there are plenty of them who want to come here and be that, not to mention that he is losing a step already and in a few years will not be able to guard the way he does now. All year we had problems with athletic teams, and with Brand in Philly with their athletic ability they could very well be one of our toughest opponents. I'll take TA back before I would Posey, there was a reason Pierce mentioned Tony in his interview when asked about Posey, but he knows that Posey is number one to be signed. As stated before this team is about team defense and Posey was a big part of it, but Ainge has said that he wants a dynasty here and this type of deal Posey wants is a future blow to this idea, and Ainge knows that he isn't worth taking that chance on. I don't want to see another 20 years of rebuilding again because of pour management, Posey can be replaced, we don't need to over extend to compete for another championship.

[billfromBoston]

Just for some perspective on the salary numbers --

Ray Allen's $18 million comes off the books in 2010.

If the Celtics decide Ray is too old and do not want to re-sign him, here's what the salary picture looks like for players we can probably guarantee will still be on the team:

Garnett - $19 million
Pierce - $21.5 million
Perkins - $4 million
Rondo - Salary that has to start at $3.7 million, but will likely be at least $6 million

Without Ray we'll probably be tied up in at least $50 million.

And you're at the salary cap. Or close to it. Nowhere near the $8-10 million under the cap you would need to sign a viable 2/3 alternative to replace Ray Allen's production.

Keep in mind this all assumes the Celtics have no other contracts on the roster in 2010 -- no Giddens, Walker, Powe, Davis, Pruitt, or whatever 2nd rounder comes down the line in 2009 and not signing out draft picks in 2010.

Possible? Yes.

Highly unlikely? Yes.

Sorry Wyc & Co., pony up, you won't be crying about Posey pushing you into luxury tax land when another championship or two re-establishes your franchise and shoots the value back through the roof on what you bought it for from Gaston.

Ideally, the Celtics need to see how Ray does next year and start thinking about what his $18 million can bring back in a trade in the ensuing years -- and that's how they're going to bridge between GPA and whatever comes next.

Boston can benefit for a period here where superstars like LeBron, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard are still finding there feet while the older class with Tim Duncan sits it out and the Pistons dismantle themselves. The Celtics' biggest competition for the next two years will probably come from LA, and after what we saw in the Finals they have a lot to correct before they can win a title -- it isn't just a matter of getting Andrew Bynum back.

...I like the attempt here SPF, but it is innacurate and highly subjective in certain areas...which is exactly why Ainge and Company are not giving Posey 4 or 5 years...

While it is true that Allen's walk year does not represent a major FA recruiting season, the next season does--that is the season that a 4th year of Posey would mess up the cap situation...

The good thing about having Perkins/Powe/Rondo/Walker/Giddens on the roster is that they are players who will not make substantial money...they probably represent 15 million dollars combined on the cap 3 years from now--that's the great advantage of low-priced youth...the other roster spots can and will continually be filled by one or two year deals for older vets looking to win...with the stars in place the team doesn't need to do more than keep a balance of role players around them...

The year Pierce walks the Celtics have the potential to be over 10 million below the cap...in that time, Patrick O'Bryant or Rajon Rondo could blow up and force Boston to use that money, but if that happened the issue of finding top-quality talent to replace GPA would be moot....all the rest of the youth-with the exception of Powe/Davis-will still be on rookie deals or short-money contracts...Powe will likely make around the same 4 million Perkins is making if the team waits to sign him until after next season...overall, the flexibility of the roster financially is quite high, with lots of youthful potential developing at a cost affordable rate...

The Eddie House/Posey/Pollard/Brown/Cassell types make up the other roster spots...these players never get big time deals for 3+ years, so the team retains that same flexibility the youth provide with their low salaries...

While trades, player development, and the rate of decline of GPA certainly can change the planning process of the team over the next 3 years, keeping Posey-or any other higher priced player-to deals that are 3 years or less is key for maintaining the possability of a FA splash.

...and your point about Posey's value relative to GPA is spot-on, but you've reversed the logic...Posey is a quality role player, but the idea that his role is the only way to win is flawed...if the team went into the season without replacing Posey with some other impact player would weaken the team, but if and when the team does add in other areas, those player's skills may very well lead to the same level of success-even if not in the same manner that Posey delivered...

I think that many on this board a tricking themselves into thinking that what James Posey brought to the Celtics is the ONLY thing that can work for contending for a title in terms of role player production...I believe that O'Bryant's interior defense, Perkins, Rondo, and Powe's improvement...the addition of JR Giddens energy, and another year of familiarity will also improve the team...and I believe that the team will also add a PG and a vet wing to further bolster the attack...