MN / Chi deadline deal

[Biff Cooper]

I’ve brought this general trade idea up a few times without many comments. So figured I’d start its own thread.
It is pretty obvious that Chicago would like to clear enough cap room by this summer to make a run at Lebron, Wade, Bosh or Joe Johnson. This seemed to be the whole point behind their shopping of Kirk Hinrich last trade deadline. Assuming John Salmons doesn’t opt out, they are currently committed to 43.9 mil for 2010-11, or 37.6 mil if they let Tyrus Thomas out as a RFA. However, on top of the 37.6 or 43.9 mil they also would have a 1st rd pick cap hold, and at least 4 other roster spot cap holds bringing their actual cap number to at least 41.1 or 47.4. Even if next year’s cap is at the high end of current estimates (53 mil), they will not have the 16.6 mil of cap space required to offer one of these guys a max deal. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense for us to be a trading partner before the trade deadline.

Chicago Trades: Luol Deng + Tyrus Thomas + James Johnson + 2010 first
(some combination of Tyrus Thomas + 2010 1 st rd pick + Taj Gibson+ James Johnson)
Minnesota Trades: Gomes + Blount + Wilkins
(Gomes as necessary to try to save face with Chicago fans for the 2009-10 season)

It is obvious that Luol Deng is incredibly overpaid. He is on the books for 10.4 this year, 11.3, 12.3, 13.4, and 14.3 the following four seasons. There is no way he can possibly play to that value. However, if he were making 7-8 mil, he seems to be exactly the type of wing player we are looking for. Tall SF (6-9), athletic, young (25), solid offensively and defensively, good BBIQ, etc. When you compare what we get on our roster as a free agent to what we do with this trade, I think this trade wins out – even though it costs Papa Glen a bit more in the pocketbook.

Save your cap space for a free agent such as Rudy Gay – what do you get? Rudy Gay plus possibly a second free agent in the 2-4 mil range. Trade expirings for Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, James Johnson and a Chicago 1 st – what do you get? Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas (resigned with RFA rights), James Johnson, Chicago 1 st, plus you also have your MLE remaining, so it can be used to sign a MLE free agent such as Anthony Morrow, Travis Outlaw, or Nikola Pekovic.

Chicago would look like this after signing Dwyane Wade: Rose, Wade, Salmons, Noah, Brad Miller (resigned using Bird rights), with a bench of Hinrich, Taj, Gomes, + free agent minimum guys to fill out the roster.
Minnesota would have a roster with the following: Flynn, Sessions, Brewer, Love, Jefferson, Deng, Tyrus Thomas (signed using RFA rights), James Johnson, Hollins, Ellington, (Morrow, Outlaw, or Pekovic), at least 3 first round draft picks, and someone like Cardinal or Pecherov filling the 15 th roster spot on a minimum contract. This deal isn't worth it if doing it pushes our first round pick to the Clippers, but I think it is something that could make sense.

[Esohny]

No interest in Deng at all, and not much interest in Thomas or Johnson. I'd rather trade for Wallace(certainly not my first choice), or try to sign Ronnie Brewer.

[Mattya]

No interest in Deng at all, and not much interest in Thomas or Johnson. I'd rather trade for Wallace(certainly not my first choice), or try to sign Ronnie Brewer.

Deng's contact is just so hard to take on, and I don't see the difference being made up with Thomas, Johnson and the 1st. I would rather use that cap space to go for Brewer, Morrow or pick some perimeter players in the draft.

[revprodeji]

Birdy tells me Deng is closer to 29 then 25. FYI

Kahn loves James Johnson. Considered him top-5 talent this last draft. The draft pick is nice also.

[Biff Cooper]

No interest in Deng at all, and not much interest in Thomas or Johnson. I'd rather trade for Wallace(certainly not my first choice), or try to sign Ronnie Brewer.

Deng's contact is just so hard to take on, and I don't see the difference being made up with Thomas, Johnson and the 1st. I would rather use that cap space to go for Brewer, Morrow or pick some perimeter players in the draft.

Yes - but with this deal, you still have the MLE to try to sign Brewer or Morrow plus a bunch of draft picks to pick up more perimeter players. Deng's contract is awful, but once we are over the cap, his contract doesn't matter as much as if we are trying to get under it.

There might be better deals than this for dealing cap space, but Deng seems like a very solid 2-way player, and to get Tyrus Thomas, James Johnson, (say Anthony Morrow), and another 1st on top of it sounds like a much better way to come out of free agency than saving cap space for Rudy Gay and then having 2-4 million more for a second free agent.

[Mattya]

2nd thaught

That 1st could be higher than I thaught. Probably still wouldn't do it.

[J_Era_3]

Mixed emotions about this deal

[southern wolf]

The Bulls would have to be pretty confident about signing a superstar on a max deal to pull the trigger on that.

[Esohny]

The Bulls would have to be pretty confident about signing a superstar on a max deal to pull the trigger on that.

Yeah, maybe neither team should do this. I doubt they'd like giving up what amounts to 2 mid first rounders and a rotation player to dump Deng, while I don't want our big shot to be Deng's brittle body, ok skills and brutal contract. I mean, the guy has only played about 2/3 of his games the last couple of seasons, but he'll be paid like 14-15 million in a few years.

[jade_hippo]

with thomas not being extended we still have to figure out how to pay him too. way too much money to give a bunch of players who have quesitons marks.

1. is Deng actually 65 years old?
2. is Deng going to play more than 12 games each year?
3. how much is Thomas going to want to be paid?
4. how is a front court of Thomas/Love/Jefferson/Pek/Hollins going to work out?
5. who gets what minutes PG and PF are still overloaded.

[Biff Cooper]

with thomas not being extended we still have to figure out how to pay him too. way too much money to give a bunch of players who have quesitons marks.

1. is Deng actually 65 years old?
2. is Deng going to play more than 12 games each year?
3. how much is Thomas going to want to be paid?
4. how is a front court of Thomas/Love/Jefferson/Pek/Hollins going to work out?
5. who gets what minutes PG and PF are still overloaded.

I realize your responses are a bit in jest, so I won't try to be too serious in responding to them.
1. I really doubt it - his NBA stats say 25, and he lived his teenage years in London. It's not like he walked out of the bush to attend Duke
2. Nobody knows how many games he'll play in the future. He missed 33 last year and 19 the year before. He played all the games the year before that, and all but 4 the year before that.
3. Typically RFA can be signed for slightly less than their market value. If somebody really wants him we should be able to work out a S&T.
4/5. Look at this list of assets: [Flynn, Sessions, Brewer, Love, Jefferson, Deng, Tyrus Thomas (signed using RFA rights), James Johnson, Hollins, Ellington, (Morrow, Outlaw, or Pekovic), at least 3 first round draft picks]. I think Kahn can upgrade quality for quantity with all of these assets including Rubio and Pekovic.

The Bulls would have to be pretty confident about signing a superstar on a max deal to pull the trigger on that.

Yes they would. There is definitely some risk on their part, but especially James and Wade are absolute steels of a deal at max money. They play in a big city with a budding star in Rose on a team that Jordan made very popular. Wade grew up in the area. Also, if Chicago were to waive Gomes, they could probably sign an additional free agent in the ~7 mil range.

Yeah, maybe neither team should do this. I doubt they'd like giving up what amounts to 2 mid first rounders and a rotation player to dump Deng, while I don't want our big shot to be Deng's brittle body, ok skills and brutal contract. I mean, the guy has only played about 2/3 of his games the last couple of seasons, but he'll be paid like 14-15 million in a few years.

I struggled with how much value to send the TWolves way in this deal. There may be other teams that are over the cap that might be willing to send expirings to Chicago for Deng + less. I figure Tyrus Thomas is an RFA, so his value will be close to market value. I figure Deng's value is probably around 7-9 mil per year, so I figure the Wolves need about 4-5 mil in value per year in return. Two mid first round picks on rookie contracts are probably worth about this value.

[jade_hippo]

I realize your responses are a bit in jest, so I won't try to be too serious in responding to them.
1. I really doubt it - his NBA stats say 25, and he lived his teenage years in London. It's not like he walked out of the bush to attend Duke
2. Nobody knows how many games he'll play in the future. He missed 33 last year and 19 the year before. He played all the games the year before that, and all but 4 the year before that

just has more to do with the fact that he is just starting to break down it looks like. the injuries are taking him out for more and more time. now he's looking like he's following the Duke curse model perfectly. a lot of older guys at the end of their career wind down like this in their mid to late 30's

i love his skills and what he brings to the court when he happens to make it there. but this looks like we're investing in Terrell Brandon all over again. Highly talented player that is exactly what we need, but he's about to head to the scrap heap and we spurned Chauncy to get this clunker.

[Biff Cooper]

I actually wrote this post without knowing Deng was having a 24pt/20reb game. He's having a pretty solid year thus far.

[karch34]

Deng has been looking pretty good lately.

Would a simpler deal of Blount's contract, Gomes, and Utah pick for Deng interest anyone?

[Biff Cooper]

I think if we are taking on Deng's nasty contract, we need something bonus in return from Chicago instead of giving something bonus in return.

My OP may have tilted the deal too far in our favor, but there is probably something in-between what I posted and what karch34 posted that would make sense.