Your Draft Success

[TripleDouble]

The discussion about the validity of Wise's opinions got me thinking and his response was an interesting read to me. It got me thinking of all the players who I have liked/disliked after studying their game (by studying I mean watching games and highlights). Much like Wise I do not base my opinions as much on numbers as I do on what I see. As a general rule there are 3 things I look for from every player 1) in game explosiveness - not how high they jump but how they play; 2) coordination/basketball related skills - this is something that all to often gets overlooked, just because someone jump high or runs fast does not make them a good athlete or basketball player (Gadz); 3) Game Feel - this is the toughest part to judge and it will show in my thoughts about previous draft picks.

I’m not posting to prove my scouting analysis so I will be a little more honest with my misses (because if you’ve only had 1 miss in the last few years you should be the league’s #1 scout), and I would love to hear everyone's past opinion's. Anyways (for all the draft geeks like me) here mine are:
(2003 and 2003, the rest to follow)

2002
Top 5 choices:
Yao - was the easy #1 choice. My only concern was his lack of explosiveness when watching him, but his basketball skill and size was too much to pass up.
Nene - Still disappointed at his progression. This just goes to show that you can’t measure heart because this guy shows the skills and feel to be a perennial allstar.
Amar’e - Yes I liked him as my 3rd best player. I remember watching that draft and begging the Bucks to trade up as he slipped all the way to 9. The only reason he wasn’t my top choice is because of the question of how he would handle the jump from high school to the NBA.
J Will - Many people had him as the top player right there with Yao, but there was something I didn’t like about his game. I am not a fan of players who play when they want and that was my perception of J Will. At times he would flat out dominate and at times he would disappear. Obviously I was wrong about this pick, if not for the injury he would have been the worth the #2 pick.
Caron - I didn’t think he would be quite as good as he is, but I thought he would be a good starter in an otherwise weak draft.

Others I liked:
Gooden - I though this was a deep big-man draft for solid role players. Gooden was, but Wilcox wasn’t
Wilcox
Dickau - I knew he didn’t have the explosiveness to be a starter, but I thought he was quick enough to be a solid player, I was very wrong.

Dislikes:
Tskitishvili - One thing I forgot to add, is I hate soft bigmen and it didn’t take long to read enough about this guy to dislike him (although I felt the same was about LeFrentz and Dirk)
Dajuan Wagner/Juan Dixon - I had these two grouped together. I have never been a fan of short shooting guards, but both were slightly better than I expected.
Jared Jefferies/Tayshaun - Jefferies was a little more explosive, but both players underwhelmed me when I watch them play. I was right about Jefferies, but very wrong about Prince.

2003
Top 5
LeBron - The world’s easiest choice ever. This guy was off the charts in every category, and the fact that he practiced with NBA players helped ease any high school questions.
Bosh - I though you said you didn’t like soft big guys. That’s true, but my definition of soft is guys who don’t attack the rim. Bosh did enough of that to ease any tensions. He was just too skilled and athletic to pass up.
Melo - I really didn’t like Melo’s mindset. I really questioned his mental toughness and thought he was too caught up in trying to out duel LeBron that he would ultimately fall short. Even with that said he was still skilled enough to be a Glen Robinson clone so that was good enough for #3.

I thought there would be a huge drop off after this point and my next 2 players were:
Darko - I bought the hype about his toughness and defense. I didn’t think he looked skilled enough to be a good offensive player in the clips I saw. With little defensive value, he is one of the largest busts of all time.
Kaman - A solid space eater. I was concerned about his Montross like downside, but bigs are just too valuable. Obviously he is better than I expected.

Other likes:
Ford - I thought his quickness and court vision could make him special, but his size would be his only determent. I really did not think he would turn into the head case he has. He stopped being a special playmaker and turned into a really poor man’s Iverson.
Wade - I thought he would be a good role-player who could be a defensive stopper. I never saw him becoming the star he has.
Gaines - I had Gaines on the same level as Wade, but I thought he would be a guy who could run the point, a Ron Harper type.
Hinrich - I had him and Ridnour on the same level. Solid role-players but nothing special
Ridnour - see above
Lampe - I thought he would have close to the same level of potential as Darko but on the offensive side (I was right, but not the way I expected). I was really hoping for him to keep sliding to the Bucks in the 2nd.

Dislikes
Sweetney - To me he was a poor man’s Tractor Trailer. Yes there is some body type prejudice here.
Collison - Too slow and not skilled enough to contribute. I thought he was the most overrated player coming out. He was better than I expected.
Walton - He was drafted about where I thought he should go, but has been better than I thought.

[Baddy Chuck]

2002:
1. Jay Williams - I was a huge fan of his and felt like he could bring the Bulls to another level.
2. Yao Ming - I wasn't sold on him being a superstar in the league but you can't teach height. He's filled out a lot since he entered the league.
3. Amare Stoudemire - I too pegged Amare in at this spot. I felt like he had ridiculous amounts of upside.
4. Chris Wilcox - Thought he'd be just a step behind Amare. Yeah, I was very, very wrong.
5. Dajuan Wagner - Bought into all the "potential".

Other likes: Kareem Rush, Rod Grizzard


2003:
1. LeBron James - Yeah, easy
2. Carmelo Anthony - I felt he had the potential to be better then LeBron for a while.
3. Chris Bosh - Really liked what I saw of him.
4. Darko Milicic - Bought into the hype, and was wrong.
5. Dwyane Wade - Final four, how couldn't you like him?

Other likes: Mickael Pietrus, Leandro Barbosa, Reece Gaines, Dahntay Jones


2004:
1. Dwight Howard - THought he had the most potential
2. Emeka Okafor - Thought he'd be right behind Dwight.
3. Shaun Livingston - How couldn't you like a 6'8 true point guard?
4. Luol Deng/Andre Iguodala - I thought they'd be aroundt he same level

Other likes: Al Jefferson (his high school averages were ridiculous), Jameer Nelson, JR Smith, Dorrell Wright


2005:
1. Andrew Bogut - Ugh....
2. Marvin Williams - Double ugh.....
3. Martell Webster - Triple ugh.........
4. Deron Williams/Chris Paul - Felt they'd be solid starters, not amazing.

Other likes: Gerald Green, Nate Robinson, Jason Maxiell


2006:
1. Rudy Gay - Felt he'd be by far the best player in the class
2. Lamarcus Aldridge - Thought he'd be the best big.
3. Randy Foye - Bought into all the "next Wade" hype.
4. Ronnie Brewer - I felt like he would be really, really good.
5. Saer Sene - Yeah.......

Other likes: Shawne Williams, Shannon Brown, Maurice Ager, James White


2007:
1. Kevin Durant - I really wanted him. I would have took him with the first pick.
2. Greg Oden - I thought he'd be better then he is, but not as good as projected.
3. Mike Conley - Felt he could be a premier point guard in the league.
4. Brandon Wright/Thaddeus Young - Potential

Other likes: Sean Williams, Al Thronton, Nick Young, Javaris Crittenton, Morris Almond


2008:
1. Derrick Rose - Thought he was easily the best player
2. OJ Mayo - Felt his potential as a scorer was the highest in the draft.
3. Michael Beasley - I had him pegged at #1 for a while but around the time of the draft I soured on him.
4. Eric Gordon - Felt he was just a step behind the first three.
5. Jerryd Bayless - Great combo guard......... or not.

Other players: Anthony Randolph, Brooz Lopez, Nicolas Batum, DeAndre Jordan, Marresse Speights, Serge Ibaka

[TripleDouble]

2004
Top 5
Howard/Okafor - I honestly could not figure out which one of these two I liked more. With Okafor you knew what you were getting, a very good defensive center out of the box. He didn’t have the skills to develop into an offensive threat, but he could get points because of his rebounding. Howard had all the upside, but was a project. He had explosiveness (elite for a big man) and coordination, but there was no way to know if he would develop in his basketball sense. In the end the Magic made a gutsy call I don’t know if I would have had the guts to make. I said at the time I wanted the 2nd pick in this draft, and I would have been wrong.
Devin Harris - Yes I had him 3rd pre-draft. When I saw Harris I could not shake a comparison that came to my mind. To me he was a taller version of Kevin Johnson, and for the most part that has played out although he is better defensively than I expected.
Livingston - I still feel this was the correct slot for him. Just like Howard, his potential was off the charts. He seemed to have everything, if you could build up his body. We all know what happened, they couldn’t.
Childress - I had him only slightly above Deng, but I am a sucker for athletic players who play basketball smart and Childress fit that to the “T”.

Others I liked
Deng - He was just below Childress, but seemed to have a natural feel for the game and you thought his IQ would develop. He is about what I expected.
Robert Swift/Al Jefferson - I was a sucker for high school centers at the end of the lottery/1st round. Obviously this theory did not play well for Seattle, but Boston/Minn is pretty happy with it.
Telfair I bought the hype. He looked like a very skilled passing point.

Didn’t Like
Gordon - As I have said I don’t like small shooting guards. He is much better than I expected.
Pavel - If you remember this draft, you will remember his name. He had tons of hype, but one time watching him and there was enough for me to see he was way too uncoordinated to play.
Jameer/Delonte - See Gordon. Both players are better than I expected.
Duhon - Maybe I just don’t like Duke Point guards, but I wanted no part in Duhon. He has been better than I expected.

2005
Top 5
Bogut - At the time it was a choice between Bogut and Paul. Bogut looked like a young Vlade, and made a average Utah team good. He had the coordination and the basketball IQ. To me that was too much to pass up.
Chris Paul - Was clearly my 2nd choice. He had it all but like Ford was on the small side (even though he was built thicker).
Gerald Green - I knew this was a boom or bust choice, but the boom was too much to pass up. We all know he busted, but his potential helped Boston get Garnett.
Bynum - I really wasn’t a fan of the rest of this draft, but much like Green Bynum had too much ability to pass up.
Fry - In college his play reminded me a little of Camby. They clearly went two drastically different directions when they got to the pros. Fry’s defense never developed. The only thing that did is his jumper.

Others I Liked (I really wasn’t a big fan of this draft, but these guys were players I thought might end up as role players)
Warrick - I liked his ability and big play feel, but wasn’t sure about where he would play.
Hodge - I though he would be a really solid bench player. Good defense and a good distributer.
Turiaf - I loved his energy and athleticism, but he was jus a little too wild to be controlled enough to be anything other than a role player.
Petro - He looked like he would develop into a very good defensive center, but unlike Diop he asn’t going to be picked too high.
Taft - I thought he was another Wilcox, but neither of them worked out (with Taft being terrible).

Didn’t like
Marvin Williams - As much as I heard about his ability it never showed up on the court for any extended period of time. He is better than I expected.
Any of the Illinios Guards
Deron - I thought he could be a role player, but was too slow to be on the court for very long at point guard, and couldn’t shoot well enough to play the 2. I was wrong about him, but I still don’t think his upside is very high. He is about as good as he will ever be (which is much better than I expected).
Head - another short shooting guard, but he has found a good role with Houston. He has been serviceable at he point, and I didn’t think he could.
Dee Brown - (was actually part of the 2006 draft but we will leave it here) Poor shooter, poor decision maker, and too small.
Salim Stoudamire - Another point guard chucker who was too short.
CV - I couldn't think of one thing positive about him other than he was skilled. He was a lazy, soft, underachiever, who left college without ever developing. He had a much better rookie year than I expected, but I would never give the money Detroit payed him. Still not a huge fan, but better than I thought.

[TripleDouble]

2006
Top 5 (overall I hated this draft, and even my top five I wasn’t sold on)
LaMarcus Aldridge - I thought he was easily the best player. There was some concern on my part because he played a little soft at times, but he was still the best.
Rudy Gay - This shows how little I liked this draft because I have huge questions about Gay’s commitment. I didn’t know if he was just in it for the money, or if he was looking for the NBA so much he didn’t try in college. In any case I hate lazy basketball players, but his talent level was so high he had to be here.
Brandon Roy - I should have trusted my instincts, but I have been burned by players like Roy in the past (Gaines and Hodge). I loved his game, but was not sure how well it would translate to the pros.
Thabo - A very athletic and smooth player. Was a project, but in this draft here you go.
Tyrus Thomas - I didn’t like the Bulls choice to move back for Thomas because I thought LA was that much better, but he has been what I thought he would be. Once again I did not like this draft.

Others I Liked
Rondo - I thought he would be a defensive, shut-down D, role-playing point guard. He is much better than I thought.
Shelden Williams - I thought he would be a solid player at least he could contribute right away. It has taken him 4 years to be what I thought he would be right away.
Paul Davis - If he could ever figure out how to get rid of cramps, I thought he would be ok off the bench.
James Augustine - Same as above (without the cramps).

Didn’t like (basically the rest of the draft but here are a select few)
Bargnani - I thought he was the worst first round pick ever, but he has been much better than I expected. Kudos to the Raptors for their patience.
Morrison - I couldn’t believe he was a high choice. At best he was a bench shooter.
Foye - See all the other short shooters.
Marcus Williams - I don’t like lazy players, and Marcus seemed that way to me. He had a lot of skill, but it wasn’t enough to pass up his lackluster play (unlike Gay).
Steve Novak - I probably didn’t like him because he was so hyped in Milwaukee, but he was never an NBA player to me.


2007
Top 5 (I was a big fan of this draft - I thought there was the potential for allot of difference makers, so far this draft has mildly disappointed me)
Oden - He looked like the best big man to come out since Ewing. I couldn’t think of a thing I didn’t like outside of . . . injuries!
Durant - I thought he would be a one dimensional player in the pros, and I wasn’t sure what position he would play (the 2 is perfect for him, but I thought he could only play the 2), but he was way too skilled to pass up. He has been exactly what I expected.
Horford - I was thrilled when it originally looked like he would be the Bucks pick. To me he was a poor-man’s Brand. He has been about what I thought.
Green - I heard the James Worthy comparison before the draft. I am a little to young to remember much of Worthy, but if that is what Worthy looked like in college than I would have liked him allot. I saw a small forward version of Roy in terms of mentality, athleticism, and skill (not necessarily game).
Conley - I loved his ability and his game in college. I am still hoping he will turn into what I thought he would be. Only his slight build held him down this far.

Others I Liked
Brewer - I thought he would be the ultimate defensive small forward, and it looks like he might slowly be turning into it. Until this point he has been a disappointment to me.
Yi - Yes I understand this is the entire top of the draft, but I really did like it. The game I saw from Yi was one that attacked the basket, but I have never seen that in the NBA from him. Even though he is putting up ok numbers in NJ (pre-injury) his style of play is very disappointing to me, and I doubt he will ever develop into the player he has the skills to be.
Law - I thought he was a great pick for Atlanta. I thought he had the ability to be a very good starting point guard, but it became clear very quick that I greatly misjudged his quickness.
Nick Young - In baseball terms I thought he was a 5-tool player. While I didn’t think he would be a superstar, I thought he would be a very good starter. The jury is still out on him, at times he looks like it is clicking and at times it looks like it never will.
Afflalo - I thought he would be a good bench shooter, and that’s what it looks like he is.
Marc Gasol - A tougher bigger version of Pau couldn’t be bad, right? I wasn’t sure how he would develop, but he looked like someone worth taking a chance on.

Didn’t Like
Brandon Wright - I didn’t think he was aggressive enough with his frame, and didn’t use it to his advantage. He had a chance to develop into a good player because of his skills, but it didn’t seem like a very good gamble.
Noah - The previous yeah he looked like a lock #1 pick. In his last year in school his game did not improve and his attitude went down. Cracks started showing, and his play became Gadz-esque. I thought he would be a complete bust. At times he has looked like Gadz, and at other times he has looked like a 1st round pick. I’m not sure what he will be yet, but he will not be the bust I predicted.
Jared Dudley - A small forward in a power forwards body, and his game could figure out which one he was. Because he wasn’t athletic enough to make it an interesting gamble, I wanted to pass.
Alando Tucker - I loved his game, if he was 6 inches taller, but at 6’-5” he wasn’t draftable to me.
Glen Davis - He was way too much of a jump shooter for a guy his size. To me he played too soft, and yes I was wrong.

[DPGBucks]

Enjoyable posts TripleDouble.
It's fun to think back on all of those drafts and remember who was getting all the hype. It's crazy how many prospects fail miserably. It makes me appreciate Jennings all that much more in hope that he can become a major player.

[TripleDouble]

2008
Top 5
Rose - I thought for sure Beasley would go #1, but I really liked Rose and thought he was going to be the best pro out of this draft. Because it underestimated a lot of this draft he may not end up being the best, but he certainly did not disappoint in his rookie year.
Beasley - He had all the skills necessary, but like I brought up before it is a red flag to me if you disappear for portions of games. This happened to Beasley more than it should have. It didn’t look to be overtly bad, and it could have been him trying to let teammates to get involved but it was enough to push him to #2.
Mayo - I loved his versatility, and it felt like he had a swagger. He suffered a bit from the Beasley disease, but his talent was way too much to pass up.
Lopez - If it wasn’t for the previous 3 being so talented he could have easily been the #1 pick. How he fell all the way to #10 I have no idea.
Love - Athletically he was a pretty good step below the others before him (I know he tested well, but it didn’t show on the court), but his basketball skill set was 2nd to none. I wasn’t completely sold that he would be as effective as a pro as he was his rookie year, but it was easily worth the gamble.

Others I liked
Augustin - Yes I am a sucker for true point guards, even if they are on the small side. He has all the skills and basketball IQ, so it is just a matter of staying healthy and developing the right way (i.e. not like T.J. Ford)
Rush - I saw him exactly like Afflalo the year before, a good bench shooter. If he progresses he has a chance to be more than that.
White - He was a little on the short side, and wasn’t as athletic as you want, but I thought his skill set made him worth a 2nd round pick.
CDR I like our prince, but I have no idea why CDR lasted to us in the 2nd or why we passed on him. IMO he should have been at worst a mid 1st round pick. He had the skills, athleticism, and feel for the game to be picked at least that high.

Didn’t Like
Gordon - He is another very skilled and athletic guy that I thought played way too lazy. Plus he looked like he smaller than he measured. I really didn’t want anything to do with Gordon, I was very wrong.
Alexander - He’s athletic but not coordinated, works hard but isn’t smart. Like any good Bucks fan I tried to get behind this pick, but even I couldn’t buy into this guy. In the end this is not a charitable organization and hard work without results gets you no where. . . but back to the lottery!
Bayless - A short-armed vertically challenged chucker. I wanted no part in him either. While he still has time to develop I am very glad the Buck didn’t take him (although Joe isn’t any better).
Hibbert - I really liked him in College, and wanted the Bucks to take a gamble in he was there in the 2nd round, but not a chance in the 1st. He was tall and had a good skill set, but I thought he was too slow to be effective. I saw him as a poor man’s Yao, but the difference between Yao and Montross isn’t as much as most people think. It is easy to draft the latter when trying to get the former.

[TripleDouble]

Enjoyable posts TripleDouble.
It's fun to think back on all of those drafts and remember who was getting all the hype. It's crazy how many prospects fail miserably. It makes me appreciate Jennings all that much more in hope that he can become a major player.

Thanks, It kind of sucked to see how much I was wrong when I went back through some of the things I wrote down, but at least there were a few I was able to hit it right on (and not just the obvious ones). Something else that is intersting is to see how many good players were not even part of my thought process at the time (Millsap, David Lee, Ariza, Kendrick Perkins, Josh Howard, ect.). All guys I knew about but didn't focus on going into their drafts.