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5th May, 2008 - 9:18 pm
My good buddy Mark Rowan and I mused on the first round of the NBA playoffs just a few weeks ago and now that the semifinal round is in full swing, it’s time to sit down together once again. Just eight teams are alive in the chase for the NBA Title, and for the most part Mark and I agreed on which four teams will advance to Conference Finals.
Note: The following conversation took place on Monday afternoon, with three of the four semifinal series having already played one game.
(3) Orlando versus (2) Detroit
MR: I like Dwight Howard, but I don't know if I can pick him to run through everything the Pistons can throw at him. They have a ton of bodies.
AP: They do, and Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton are going to continue to make Orlando's backcourt look silly throughout the series.
MR: That's not Orlando's strong suit. It has been, and will continue to be, exposed by Detroit in this series.
AP: I doubt the Pistons are going to hold down Dwight as they did in Game One throughout the series, but I was shocked nonetheless. Maybe he was nervous. His new video game dropped recently – maybe he's spending all his time on XBox Live.
MR: I could see that being the case, but even so, I think we'll see a monster game or two from Dwight, but this is where experience really comes into play.
AP: At first I was chomping at the bit to criticize the Pistons for their blunders against the Sixers in the first round, but I think the challenge has only made them stronger.
MR: I don't know if that holds true for Boston, though, but we'll get to that.
AP: Oh, we most certainly will. If Orlando is going to advance and face the winner of the Cavaliers/Boston series, the trio of Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Howard are going to have to absolutely dominant - plain and simple.
MR: I have to admit that Game One (a Detroit victory) really swayed my decision. I would have originally said Detroit in seven, but now I'm going with six. Not much of a difference, but I went from thinking Orlando could pull the upset to thinking Detroit could win this rather quickly.
AP: It stinks that the NBA scheduled things so that we couldn’t fully preview the semifinals without waiting until three of the four series started, but I agree 100%. I'm thinking the Pistons in six, hopefully it won't be in five. I want to see Dwight and the Magic take something out of this series.
MR: I agree. I'd love to see DH bust out in these playoffs, but I don't see Detroit allowing that to happen for a whole series.
AP: The Magic are just too inexperienced, although I have grown tired of using that word this postseason. The Pistons put it in cruise control against the Sixers, but were in total control when it really mattered.
MR: If only Lewis wasn't sapping so much money out of the organization, Orlando could have made a legit run at Baron Davis this offseason.
AP: I thought that they overpaid for Lewis from the get-go, but he has meant a lot to this team. He means more than just the numbers he provides, but I think Otis Smith could still have gotten him for a little less.
MR: It was a good signing, just not for a good price. I hear Stephon Marbury may be available this summer…
AP: He's a bargain too. All and all, the Pistons in six. Hopefully the Magic will win Game Two to keep things interesting for a little longer.
MR: We agree on this one, down to the number of games.
AP: How cute.
(4) Cleveland versus (1) Boston
MR: Now, as I said earlier, I think Boston lost more than they gained in the long series against Atlanta.
AP: Definitely. They know they can't take games off anymore, but they aren't young (in terms of the Big Three) and those were seven long games.
MR: Logic would say that if the worst team in the playoffs can take them to seven games, then one of the best should be able to win it.
AP: You have a point, but I think the Hawks were a different beast than the Cavaliers. Atlanta was given no chance, which played to their advantage because they are an inexperienced, but scrappy and cohesive team.
MR: I agree. It's good to play as the underdog, but I wouldn't be surprised if LeBron came out a bit angry and amped up from what happened to him in the first round.
AP: Cleveland has a ton of pressure, having made the Finals last season. Also, they aren't as good of a "team" as the Hawks, although they are more talented. LeBron can't do it himself, and might have to at times.
MR: I'm siding with logic and predicting LeBron and Co. to take the ‘Boston Three Party’ down in seven games.
AP: That scare from the Hawks is going to hurt the Celtics, but not until they face Detroit in the Eastern Finals. I'm taking Boston in six games.
MR: This is going to be great series for sure, but I think these Celtics are on a similar level to last year's Pistons. Obviously a bit better, but I feel Cleveland is also improved from last year. Again, the question is: who will guard LeBron?
AP: I think Garnett will step out on him a few times, and LBJ won't be able to crash into the paint as much as he did against Washington.
MR: You also have to love the upgrade of Ben Wallace/Joe Smith guarding Garnett over Drew Gooden. That trade looks good for this series.
AP: I agree with you on that, but I still don't think LeBron will have enough support to beat Boston. No single member of the Hawks beat the Celtics, it was a team attack. Cleveland will need a similar effort.
MR: True. It's going to be tough, but the first series with Atlanta left me unimpressed. I think Boston can be toppled, and LeBron is the man for the job.
AP: I guess one of us will be gloating after this one.
(3) San Antonio versus (2) New Orleans
MR: Oh man, my dream would be for the Hornets to take this series.
AP: Mine as well, and I see it happening.
MR: I love New Orleans and San Antonio is the team to despise.
AP: Not sure I agree that San Antonio is the team to despise, but I suppose people get bored seeing the same team win all the time.
MR: I don't know many people outside of Texas that care for the Spurs. Respect? Yes. Like? No.
AP: This series will go down in NBA history as the passing of the torch. I'm not saying New Orleans is going to win a handful of titles over the next decade, but they'll make a Finals appearance or two.
MR: I could definitely see that happening, because the Hornets are going to be good for years to come. Unlike Orlando or Toronto, who have good young cores and will be good in the coming years, this team is good now and will be going deep in the playoffs often in the future. If this marks an end to a dynasty and the birth of a new one, then I couldn't be happier.
AP: That's the difference. I don't think this Spurs team has faced one like the Hornets during their recent reign of terror. New Orleans is talented, young and poised. Usually you don't have all three rolled into one.
MR: The Spurs are no joke, of course. So I don't think they will roll over as easily as they did in Game One over the course of this series, but I can't pick them to win it.
AP: The thing is, I don't even think David West and Tyson Chandler need to contain Tim Duncan, as they did in Game One, to win the series.
MR: No, but they showed they can, which is an important thing to do from the start. Now the Spurs need to worry about more than just Chris Paul, as West reminded them in the opener. On top of that, Duncan needs to worry about getting his shots more down the line.
AP: I'm taking the Hornets in seven. The Spurs are too good for me to say six games.
MR: We're agreeing too much here, so I'm going to say Hornets in six.
AP: Alright. I'll be crossing my fingers for that seventh game.
MR: [Laughs] Okay.
(5) Utah versus (1) Los Angeles Lakers
AP: This is the first matchup that befuddles me.
MR: I could see Utah coming out the West. No matter who wins the Spurs/Hornets series, but I don’t know – it’s Kobe Bryant.
AP: I don't think Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are going to struggle again like they did in Game One, but you're right. The MVP is playing great, as are the Lakers as a team.
MR: I don't think I would have believed that Kobe could take his game to another level, but this season he definitely has. It's way beyond the scoring too. He's a great teammate now and that's why the Lakers were the top seed in the best conference in the NBA.
AP: I loved to bash Kobe in the past, but there really nothing negative you can say about him this season. I'm leaning towards saying L.A. in five games, which would make this the quickest series of the second round.
MR: It certainly has the potential to be the quickest, but I could see the Magic slipping and dropping out before Utah does. Either way, I'm going with the Lakers in six.
AP: That's said with no respect to the Jazz, it's just not a good matchup. Brewer can't guard Kobe, and Pau is too agile for Utah's big men.
MR: Yeah, a bad draw for the Jazz in the second round. I think they will test the Lakers, but won't send them home.
AP: We're thinking along the same lines again, but the length is where we differ on this series. Just like in real life.
MR: [Laughs]
AP: A matchup between Deron and CP3 would be nice for hoopheads, but it's a fantasy at best.
MR: It would be marketable, but as you said, it's a pipe dream.
First Round Recap
AP: Okay, we've played prognosticator. Now let's review our first round picks.
MR: Well, I believe I was 7-for-8 on the straight-up picks, but I’m not looking as good when we examine the number of games.
AP: Let's go one-by-one. We both nailed the Boston/Atlanta series, but were off in terms of games.
MR: Off by a lot, but we weren't the only ones. Not many people predicted that series going to the max.
AP: I can't recall one. I gave them a win, but now wish I'd at least handed them another.
MR: I figured their ceiling was a game too, but they proved me wrong.
AP: We both pegged Detroit over Philly, but you trumped me in the Cleveland/Washington series. I was very disappointed in the Wizards.
MR: The Wizards angered a beast. I think you rightfully regretted your pick during the conversation.
AP: I did, they seemed to care more about the press than the Cavs.
MR: I actually nailed the number of games, six, right on the head for the Cleveland victory.
AP: You can thank Caron Butler for that. We rounded out the East with a consensus Orlando pick. Congratulations on going perfect in the East, I'll settle with 3-for-4.
AP: Okay, now the West. We both got the Los Angeles/Denver series correct.
MR: In four games, nonetheless.
AP: You went sweep, I went six. You're making me look bad.
MR: Just wait until we get to the Spurs/Suns series.
AP: You gained even more breathing room on me in the New Orleans/Dallas series. We both predicted seven games, but you got the advantage taking the Hornets.
MR: Dallas came up way short and has already begun to shake up the franchise with the firing of Avery Johnson.
AP: Meanwhile, I'm now picking New Orleans to make the Conference Finals. How quickly things change.
MR: A series like that could do that to a man.
AP: Now onto my favorite portion of this recap. The Spurs/Suns series, which you pegged as a Phoenix win in seven. I took San Antonio in six.
MR: [Expletive]
AP: The Suns can't hang with the Spurs, plain and simple.
MR: My love for Steve Kerr died with that series. I'm filing for divorce.
AP: I think it was only a one-way affair anyhow, but maybe you'll come away with some cash in the deal, or maybe even his jumper.
MR: You made up some ground by selecting the Jazz in six to my five.
AP: I'll take those bonus points. So the final tally looks like you took me out with a 7-for-8 performance. I'm proud of my 6-for-8, but I know I'll be sitting pretty in two weeks when we discuss the Conference Finals.
MR: Sounds good. As always, good luck in the lottery.
AP: [Laughs] Thanks. Good luck without Isiah - you'll need it
If you weren’t overly offended or bored by this piece, please let Andrew Perna know how you felt with an e-mail (Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com). If you’d like to read what Mark has to say about music, movies and six-foot turkeys – please visit his blog: More Like A Six-Foot Turkey. |
