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Betting The House On The Home Team
Authored by Michael J. Jones - 16th May, 2008 - 11:56 pm

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So far in the postseason, the home team has won nearly 80% of the time. The bias is even clearer when looking at the second round. Home teams are 20-1 when playing at the friendly confines of their local arenas. If you’re in the gambling game, then these numbers probably sound like music to your ears.

Home court has proven to be more of a serious advantage to the home team than the skills, coaching strategy, and players that are on the floor. For example, look at the Cavaliers and Celtics series. LeBron James shot for a combined 8-for-42, couldn’t hit a three pointer to save his life, and wasn’t putting up assist numbers like he should have when playing in the Boston Garden instead of The Quicken Loans Arena. As soon as he got back to Cleveland, he shot better from the field especially from three-point range hitting three in Game Three and a pair in Game Four. He also racked up 20 assists in Games Three and Four; in essence, he was helping his team finally help him out on the offensive end.

Another example of extreme home-court advantage can be found in the Lakers and Jazz series, where Los Angeles played as advertised at home but looked completely different in Utah. And who would’ve thought that the defending champion San Antonio Spurs would be on the verge of elimination because of how well New Orleans plays at home. The Spurs didn’t even look like they should’ve beaten the Suns the way they have played against the Hornets away from Texas, but when they got back home, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker proved to be unstoppable.

My question is – why can’t these star players and above-average teams be consistent enough to play as well as they do at home when they are on the road?
This season’s trend of severe home-court advantage is a substantial reason why some critics feel that the NCAA’s March Madness is better than the NBA Playoffs, and it always will be.

Since NCAA Tournament games are played in neutral locations, it eliminates the home-court advantage and some of the questions as to why teams win or lose. When collegiate stars don’t play up to their potential, it’s because they either got rattled or because they were overrated.

In the NBA Playoffs this luxury is eliminated because stars on visiting teams seem to lack focus and their skills seem to disappear due to how loud and distracting home fans can be.

The postseason is now becoming predictable with home court advantage playing so much of a factor in the games. Fans now have the power to make the visiting teams look like lottery clubs even when we’re talking about the Celtics, Lakers, or Spurs. The fans now have the power to affect players like James, Tim Duncan, and Paul Pierce – making them disappear. They even have the power to dismantle visiting teams' coaching philosophies.

Because of many teams' poor play on the road, the series' winner has now been dependent on two factors:

1. Which team wins an away game first, or

2. Which team has the most games at home

For those of you who are gamblers, the safest and surest bet should be placed on the team that is playing at home this season.

Until players start playing more like the stars they are and teams start becoming more focused on playing their style of basketball regardless of where they are, there is no point watching these playoff games. We already know the outcome, right?
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