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Five Principles For Finding Draft Gems

Authored by Chris Lehane - 26th June, 2008 - 4:08 pm

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This report is not a comprehensive report on every player – but the players whom I think for various reasons will be the players that folks look back upon and talk about five years from now as having been good picks.

As you know, I have a number of principles I follow in analyzing players: (1) They must be dynamic players (defined as you notice them as soon as you turn on the game in all aspects); (2) I must have seen them actually play multiple times (which rules out the Euros and, in the past, the high school kids); (3) I am a believer in production over potential (I like guys who produce in college versus guys who have the potential to produce but have yet to produce); (4) I analyze the draft with a realistic understanding that if you actually get a guy who is going to be a solid producer, you have done a good job; and (5) I am a believer in character – but not in terms of whether a guy is a nice guy off the court but whether the guy plays to win on the court.

With that said, here is my analysis:

- Derrick Rose: Stud. More athletic version of Derron Williams.

- Brandon Rush: Will be very nice pro for many years. Can shoot; can play defense; likes to play team-ball. Big guard.

- Lopez Brothers: People should not be scared by the Collins brother concern (twin seven footers from Stanford who become NBA stiffs). I actually think Robin (the one who has less offensive skills) will end up being a great value down the road.

- Mario Chalmers: Will have a nice NBA career as a point guard (best Kansas PG since Jo Jo White). Quinn Buckner who can shoot.

- Roy Hibbert: Classic example of the craziness of how the NBA evaluates talent. Would have been a top 5 pick last year and has now slipped. He is 7’2”, can shoot, can block shots, and is smart. He may not be the next Ewing/Alonzo but could be a very poor man’s Mutombo (less physical but better offensively).

- Chris Douglas-Roberts: Will be a solid wing man – a poor man’s Hamilton. iIs a 6’7” two guard who scores (period). And has scored at every level, against everybody he has played.

- Sahsa Kaun: Could become the first 60th pick to really become a contributor. Will go to Russia for several years and come back. Not too many seven footers who bang, play hard, can shoot, have good hands. In this Association, he will end up as a very serviceable 10 ten year back-up center.

- Brandon Jennings: Not eligible. Could end up playing in Europe. Second coming of Tiny Archibald.

Democratic strategist Chris Lehane is a Boston Celtics fan and long-time contributor to RealGM. He filed these scouting reports after witnessing the players in pre-draft workouts.

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