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Authored by Matthew Gordon - 22nd June, 2009 - 1:59 pm
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Merry Christmas, Raptors Fans
The Raptors might not be playing good basketball right now, but there are plenty of things for Toronto fans to be thankful for this holiday season.
A Melo Behind The Superstars
Carmelo Anthony has never been one of the league's most efficient offensive players.
A Melo Behind The Superstars
Carmelo Anthony has never been one of the league's most efficient offensive players.
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As draft day approaches, especially in such a purportedly tumultuous year, it’s only natural to think that there might be a major trade.
The 2004 draft saw Charlotte move up from fourth to second to select Emeka Okafor, as well as Dallas trade Antawn Jamison for the fifth pick, for example. Boston’s trade of the fifth pick to Seattle for Ray Allen in 2007 was the first of the moves that assembled a team that hasn’t lost more than twenty games in a season since. Last year’s Mayo-Love blockbuster was the most recent instance.
This year’s rumors, that the Nets might be willing to trade Devin Harris for the second pick, that the Timberwolves could dangle Kevin Love in a similar scenario, and the usual hoopla surrounding the Wizards, have only made fans even more eager. Even Blake Griffin, the consensus number-one who’s been featured in Clipper ad campaigns, hasn’t been free from speculation.
When trying to determine whether teams will part with their top picks, or which ones will, it’s important to remember that not every high-lottery team faces the same challenges and needs. What the Clippers could want for their top pick is entirely different from what the Wizards could want for their fifth pick, or anyone in between. Making the process trickier is that anyone not in the upper management of these teams can do little more than speculate based on positional need, team history and potential outlook. Even so, there are readily visible reasons for each of the top five teams to trade its pick. (There are also even more reasons for those teams to keep their picks, but there are entire websites dedicated to that.)
#1. L.A. Clippers
Blake Griffin: zero points and zero rebounds in zero games played, yet he’s one of the most valuable players in the NBA. Rookie scale contracts are the real blessings for teams drafting so high; while superstars league-wide make eight-figure annual sums, Griffin will make less than the mid-level exception for what many hope will be similar output. The Clippers: capped out for 2010 when many other teams will have significant room, in an odd twist that no one saw from Donald Sterling before about the last half-decade. This could be a great match… or a great opportunity.
The contracts of Baron Davis and Zach Randolph are considered two of the worst in the league, combining to almost $30 million per season. They’re very talented players, but Davis’ chronic back injuries and Randolph’s lack of interest in defense have turned the Clippers’ two biggest tickets into liabilities rather than assets. Packaging Griffin (the first pick, but it will be Griffin) with one of these contracts, or preferably both, could help set up the Clippers for a future that can’t come fast enough. It’s not as though the team will be able to let Davis and Randolph expire while Griffin develops, as Davis comes off the cap when Griffin’s rookie deal expires.
Plenty of teams would love to have a star big man, especially one so young, and would likely be willing to gamble on one or both of the Clippers’ albatrosses to do it. What the Clippers would need in such a trade would be expiring contracts and young players, which the aforementioned 2010-chasers could offer. Free agency is distant estimation, but a locked-up, cheap Blake Griffin paired with a talented malcontent could be a massive infusion that would be difficult to refuse.
As for why the Clippers would surrender such a package for what might not amount to more than undoing the Davis signing and grabbing a couple extra picks? That team isn’t winning next year, even with Griffin. There’s an old saying that goes, “if you’re going to suck, suck under the cap”. If that’s the way Donald Sterling and Mike Dunleavy want to think, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise, moving the best big man prospect of the last couple years could be rationalized.
#2: Memphis Grizzlies
With Griffin presumably off the board, unless the Grizzlies orchestrate a pick swap to land him, they’ll be staring at a tier below him. Ricky Rubio, James Harden and Hasheem Thabeet have all seen their names zip about in rumors pertaining to the top picks, but each player presents a different problem for the Grizzlies.
Acquiring Rubio means having to rely on his ability to pay his buyout, not to mention the suddenly immediate need to trade Mike Conley, who the team took fourth overall in 2007. Harden plays the same position as OJ Mayo, meaning one of them would either have to make do at point guard (creating another Conley-related issue) or come off the bench. Thabeet is widely considered a small reach at #2, so if the Grizzlies want him that badly, a risky skip down a couple spots could be their best solution.
The Grizzlies have been in perpetual limbo throughout their existence, constantly bequeathed with prime picks yet with no assurance that those picks will turn into quality players. Although they’ve made decent picks like Shareef Abdur-Rahim in 1996 and Shane Battier in 2001, and great picks like Pau Gasol in 2001 and Rudy Gay in 2006, they’ve also managed to take Antonio Daniels (1997), Stromile Swift (2000), Drew Gooden (2002) and Mike Conley (2007) all in the top four. (Mayo is looking good so far…) Their inability to construct a contender out of lottery picks regardless of location or management shouldn’t be a deterrent for them to make another one, but it should be a reminder of how uncertain the draft is.
Already possessing young talent in Mayo, Gay and Marc Gasol, plus the hopeful emergence of Conley, the team can afford to look for veteran help without sacrificing the future. They can also consolidate contracts if they want to look for a higher-salaried player, with Darko Milicic’s expiring contract a good option for a team wanting a backup center while maintaining flexibility for 2010. The Grizzlies have options, whether it involves trading down or trading out of the draft – or they could use the pick, which, strangely, might be the greatest gamble of all.
#3: Oklahoma City Thunder
Like the Grizzlies, the Thunder have a young team that could use some veteran leadership, especially up front and on defense. They also have an expiring contract in Earl Watson that could be leveraged much like Milicic. Unlike the Grizzlies, the Thunder have an exciting young general manager in Sam Presti who’s inspired confidence in the nominally young franchise. For one, he can identify top prospects far better than the slack-jawed pundits, like me, who can now feel embarrassed for having been skeptical about last year’s Russell Westbrook pick.
With a great scorer who’s also a developing rebounder in Kevin Durant, a jumping bean in Westbrook and an all-around threat in Jeff Green, the Thunder have a solid core. Adding a defensive center, albeit that being the most coveted type of player anyway, would make the team a perennial threat in the shifting Western Conference. Alternately, a point guard could help, although ball-sharing duties with Westbrook would have to be clearly established within the flow of Scott Brooks’ offense.
With only Nick Collison, Nenad Krstic and their plethora of rookie contracts signed past 2010, the Thunder are one of those teams that can either make a play next summer or seriously swindle a team with that goal. The #3 pick plus contracts ending in 2010 could land them a very high-quality player, and if Presti can put Collison into a trade, the team might still be able to escape with some 2010 cap space. The Thunder have options and time, although speeding up the contention clock might work nicely if Durant, Green and Westbrook continue to improve so quickly.
#4: Sacramento Kings
It can’t be fun to be a Kings fan right now. Worst record, fourth pick. Such is the lottery, though, so they have to do something about it.
Rubio would look great in a Kings uniform, but he might not be available at #4. Hence, if the Kings look to trade this pick, the logical assumption would be that a deal isn’t finalized until whenever Rubio is off the board. Of course, the Kings might not actually be interested in him; they could have someone else in mind (although neither Harden nor Thabeet, to name a couple of examples, looks particularly suited for their roster) or they could like no one in this draft at all.
The team’s already set for 2010, but Andres Nocioni and Beno Udrih will make over $13 million combined in 2010/2011 while likely not earning that kind of pay in the minutes they’ll play. If the Kings want an established player at point guard or small forward, moving the one who plays the same position plus the fourth pick would be the obvious way to do it, although the expiring contract of Kenny Thomas could be helpful there as well. They can also look to make a move for extra cap space, which would provide them with a host of possibilities later.
This draft will allow the Kings to shape their future based on:
-Whether or not the team wants to make a run at free agents in the summer of 2010.
-Which position (point guard or small forward) the team wants to fortify more earnestly in order to plunk a star, or potential star, next to Kevin Martin and the young big men.
What Geoff Petrie decides to do on Thursday could mean another prospect in Sacramento, a massive cap-clearing initiative, a veteran acquisition, or some combination. No matter what the Kings do, there will be an opportunity cost, and the team’s path should appear at least a little clearer.
#5: Washington Wizards
The Wizards also fell three spots in the draft lottery, but with all their talent, it’s tough to pity them. Caron Butler was vocal in his pre-lottery hope that the team could score Blake Griffin (and really, what team wouldn’t want him?), but instead, the team faced its worst possible result.
Bouncing back from this situation could be a lot of fun. A healthy Wizards team has proven that it can make the playoffs, although the phrase “healthy Wizards” appears more like an oxymoron with each passing season. Nonetheless, a team led by Antawn Jamison (born 1976), Caron Butler (born 1980), Brendan Haywood (born 1979) and Gilbert Arenas (injured so often you’d think he was born in 1935) might not want to be too patient with a project, or even a moderate contributor. With not as much potential cap space in 2010 as many other teams, none if they use their first-rounder and Haywood re-signs, there’s also no anxiety about trading for a star at the expense of flexibility.
Whether they want to keep Haywood long-term factors into the decision on draft day. If he’ll be phased out and Thabeet falls to the fifth pick, Thabeet could be a good project to have learning from him. Alternately, Haywood’s $6 million expiring contract could be exactly the kind of piece that the Wizards could combine with the fifth pick and perhaps another expiring contract like Etan Thomas or Mike James. Such a package would likely land a very high-quality player at either of the Wizards’ positions of need, shooting guard or center. (The greater need would depend upon Haywood’s inclusion in such a trade: if he goes, it’s center, and if he stays, it’s shooting guard.)
If Haywood’s staying, and he is a very good fit on that team at a reasonable price, shooting guard becomes the biggest concern. Thankfully for the Wizards, off-guards are wild this offseason. The draft includes Harden, Tyreke Evans and Demar DeRozan; veterans with large contracts include Michael Redd, Vince Carter and Jason Richardson. That’s not to say that any one of these six players is the definitive answer for Washington, only that there’s evidently plenty of talent through which Ernie Grunfeld can sift.
That is the goal, after all. (Well, unless the Clippers go suicidal and deal the farm, that farm being their prized rooster in Griffin, their broken-legged horse in Davis and their deranged bull in Randolph.) In a draft when talent is allegedly everything from abundant to sparse, acquiring talent will be paramount for five teams that can really use it, all for different reasons and in different ways. |
