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Authored by J.T. Magee - 27th April, 2006 - 10:04 pm
Before I get into the next ten prospects, I must address a couple of things that were in Version 1.01. First off, I must explain why some players were in spots where it looked like they would be terrible picks (Morrison to Atlanta). These 1.01-1.03 mocks are just lists of the draft prospects by my own rankings and they do not fill team needs. So if you see something like Atlanta picking Morrison, for example, it is because that is where he ranks on the list of the eligible draft prospects.
Also, as I was working on this list, a couple of players decided to enter the draft that I thought were not going to be in it this year. Sergio Rodriguez is a 19-year-old point guard playing for Adecco Estudiantes, a Spanish team in the ACB, the top Spanish league. Rodriguez has a lot of potential and if he were to enter in any year, this would be the year to do it. Unfortunately, each point guard is worth drafting in the first round but none of them are going to make immediate impacts like Chris Paul or
Deron Williams. Williams came on late, but I mean throughout the whole season. Rodriguez will be address in this version because I really like this kid.
Speaking of Rodriguez, there is a little more info coming out on Tiago Splitter. Splitter is one of thetop rated power forward/centers in this draft. Unfortunately for NBA teams, his Euroleague team, Tau Ceramica/Vitoria, also feels the same way. They are reportedly not interested in a buyout situation with an NBA team because of how much value he has for them. Splitter started to come this season after there was a coaching change.
Next season, if Splitter were to return, he would play alongside Kornel David, who is in his 30s, and Peja Drobnjak, who is more of a perimeter oriented big. Luis Scola, their best post player and one of the best offensive power forwards in the world, may come over to San Antonio this season. So Tau would have a thinner frontcourt than the Raptors if he were to get bought out. There will be more on this situation
later.
After these mocks are released, I will put up a detailed mock draft that takes care of team needs. The NBA recently broke ties when they had a series of coin flips to determine who would draft where outside of the Lottery. This list will be updated from the last time because of these tiebreakers. If two teams tied, whomever won the tiebreaker received the higher first round pick and the lower second round pick. To view these tiebreakers you can go to this link:
http://www.nba.com/news/lotteryties_060421.html
And now, v1.02.
1. Portland Trailblazers: Tyrus Thomas.
2. Chicago Bulls (via NY Knicks): LaMarcus Aldridge.
3. Charlotte Bobcats : Andrea Bargnani.
4. Atlanta Hawks : Adam Morrison.
5. Toronto Raptors : Brandon Roy.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves : Rudy Gay.
7. Boston Celtics : Tiago Splitter.
8. Houston Rockets : Rajon Rondo
9. Golden State Warriors : Rodney Carney
10. Seattle Supersonics : Mardy Collins
11. Orlando Magic
Marcus Williams, PG, UCONN, Junior, 6'3”, 205 pounds.
Strengths:
Williams has the size and natural PG instincts NBA teams covet out of their floor generals. A crafty passer, Williams knows what to do with the ball 9 ½ times out of 10. He gets it there any way it needs to be delivered, whether it is a heat seeking pass or a soft bounce pass.
To start off, he is the classic floor general. A lot of people compare him to Mark Jackson and it is a fair comparison. He won't end up being the #2 assist man of All-Time, but he has the instincts to play a long time in the NBA. He can command the fast break better than any PG in this draft and he can run a slow-tempered offense. He knows where players like the ball and puts it in the perfect place for them. If they are coming off a screen, Williams can read the defense for them by making sure the pass is where he can put up the highest percentage shot.
Knowing where to put the ball is one thing, but he has shown time and time again he can do it on the break. Running the break was his forte at UCONN because of the teammates he had. It helps when you have a potential All-Star small forward running the wings, waiting for any alley-oop pass you can throw up. He can read the situation coming down the court and make a decision even before he's at the 3-point line.
Offensively, he has one of the most natural strokes I've seen out of a point guard in a long time. He has a lot of range on his jump shot and it showed this season, when he hit 40% of his 3-pointers. It is one fluid motion for him: jump, raise the arms, release and follow through. He can pull up off the dribble or catch & shoot. It is a fairly slow release, but it makes his shot a lot harder to block.
He also has a surprisingly good first step. Because he's left-handed, players tend to have a harder time guarding him. He has a variety of hesitation moves and ways to get by his man. He uses his right hand to convince his man he's going right, then crosses it over and either drives or pulls up for the jumper.
He is the type of player who can make a quick decision driving and it is rarely a mistake. He can go either right or left, although left is his preferred hand. Hecan finish with a nice floating jumper in the lane that has a soft touch, so if it hits the rim, it has a better chance at going in than out. He can finish strong because of his size and is good at creating contact and making sure he can draw a foul and a chance for an And 1 opportunity.
Because he played at Connecticut, he is a winner. He's been in numerous situations where the ball has been in his hands in the final minutes and seconds. He has shown that he is cold-blooded in these situations, especially at the free throw line. He is willing to put the game on his back and it usually produces greatresults. He is also unselfish in the closing seconds, willing to pass it if he knows his teammate has an easier shot than him.
Weaknesses:
This is where Rajon Rondo ranks higher than him: defense. Unlike Rondo, Williams doesn't have the length or foot speed to keep up with opposing point guards. Because of this, William may never be as well rounded on both ends of the floor like Rondo. Williams has the bulk to contend defensively, but he's also the type of guard who can get burned routinely by NBA point guards. Defense and positioning can always be worked on, but it is one area where he is behind Rondo in.
He is a great decision maker, but most of the time, it is for his team and rather than for himself. He tends to force up shots when he doesn't need to and it has hurt his team in situations where they could've won. Against Syracuse in the Big East Tournament, Williams was 5-14. He decided to take the final shot to try and win rather than pass it to Rashad Anderson. Granted, no Huskie shot over 45% that day, but Williams thought of himself before his team. He missed, forcing overtime. In overtime, Williams made the same mistake in the closing seconds, shooting rather than passing it. Fool me once, shame on, shame on you. ... A fooled man can't get fooled again.
One reason he's compared to Mark Jackson is because both have/had the same athleticism. It didn't hurt Jackson, but it does raise questions as to how well Williams can play defense in the NBA. He has the size to body up with opposing point guards, but he doesn't have the quickness that other point guards his size have (Billups, Davis, Francis, etc.).
Because he's left-handed, he usually doesn't use his right hand. And by usually doesn't, I mean rarely. When he dribbles with his right hand, it is only used to set up a drive to his left. This can always be worked on and it doesn't hurt that he's left-handed, but the fact than he only uses his right hand on a pass or his shot is a bit of a concern.
A team's confidence starts and ends with the point guard. There have to be a lot of things factored in, but at the end of the game, the face on the point guard says it all. Even if they are tired, a point guard will most likely wear his heart on his sleeve.
Williams will when they win, but when they are down or losing, Williams tends to lose focus and will start thinking about himself rather than think of ways to get his team back in the game. He tends to lose his composure at times where he can be cold-blooded. Williams is a great point guard, but sometimes he is two-faced in a game and that is never good for his team.
His game has vaulted his status in this draft, but what kept him off of some people's boards were the actions over the laptop incident at UCONN. Williams was suspended for it and looked like he was upset and truly made a big mistake when being interviewed by Andy Katz about it when the college season kicked off. It probably won't be a factor when he reaches the NBA, but teams will look at it because they don't want troublemakers. He's overcome it, but character is always an issue and it will be on a team's mind when they are trying to choose him over one of the other PGs in this draft.
Overview:
Williams is a point guard by every classification of the position. He knows what to do with the ball and it usually produces great results. He loves to push the tempo but has shown he can slow it down and run a half-court offense. By the time the draft rolls around, it would not be surprising to see him as the first PG taken off the board.
12. New Orleans/OK City Hornets
Shelden Williams, PF/C, Duke, Senior, 6'9”, 245.
Strengths:
Williams is a bruising and dominant big man. He has the long arms to block shots and has a thick upper torso, which he uses to take contact. Nicknamed “The
Landlord,” Williams got this because of the way he stays in the paint and takes care of it like it's his. Even though he is just 6'9”, he plays much bigger and does so with great succession on both ends of the floor.
Williams is the type of post player who will never be great, but he has the type of old-school game that is long gone in today's NBA. He bangs down low on each end of the floor and fights for every rebound. He gets great position on the low block and is quick to the ball. He is a bulky player and most people mistake that for him being slow. But he has surprisingly quick feet which enable him to get to loose balls and rebounds that stay in the air for a second longer than normal.
Defensively, he ranks right up there with Thomas and Splitter when it comes to one-on-one defense in the post. He takes the contact and waits for his man to make a move. When he does, he uses his long arms to block the shot. He uses his feet to adjust to any quick moves made by the opposing player.
Playing under a great coach like Mike Krzyzewski will only help a player's fundamentals and Williams is a prime example. Williams isn't the most gifted player athletically, but he makes up for it with hard work and knowing the fundamentals. Williams has been great in the post because he knows what to do and how to do it. He knows where to be positioned in certain situations and was a tremendous low-post presence on both ends of the floor.
Defense is definitely his strong suit, but on offense, Williams showed that he has a variety of post moves he can go to. Against LSU, Williams was the only player who showed up. He was able to play against both Thomas and Glen Davis with succession. He used up-and-unders and drop steps to perfection, either drawing a foul or getting close enough to the basket to put up a high percentage shot. He did get his shot blocked a few times, but he didn't stray away from his game and it showed up in the box score.
When you think of college basketball, Duke is one of the first schools that come to mind. They are always in the NCAA Tournament and are always in close and big games. Because of this experience, Williams has a leg up over some of the younger players like Aldridge and Thomas, who haven't been there as much as he has. He is calm and collected in those situations and comes up with either the game-saving block or rebound when it's needed.
Weaknesses:
Williams can play on offense, but is very limited in what he can do. In four years, he rarely showed that he has a shot outside of ten feet. Duke has always had great shooters and Williams only had to make sure he played successfully in the paint, but he has not shown that he can hit the mid range jumper. This area is one of the many that can be worked on and because Williams has shown he's a hard worker, it should easily to him. But right now, Williams can only be used on defense and have an immediate impact.
Even though Williams dominated college basketball, he is a bit undersized for both power forward and center in the NBA. He rarely had to go up against NBA-caliber big men. When he did, his results were mixed. Against LSU, he was fairly successful, but his team lost. Against UNC, Tyler Hansborough, a future NBA player, dominated him. Because he doesn't have the great low-post game that traditional power forwards have, Williams will most likely play center and will always be up against players at least 3-4 inches taller than him. His long arms help counteract the height, but it does take away from some things he can do. Like completely dominate like he did in college.
He is fundamentally sound, but sometimes, his movements come out like he is the textbook. They are 1: dribble, 2: step, 3: shoot. He doesn't have the motions that a normal post player has and this can hurt him in the NBA. His shots are predictable and because of this, some of them were swatted away (LSU game). He will rarely be the #2 option on offense, but if he is, he must show that he can make quick decisions in the block and not look so predictable.
Because he is a low-post player, he tends to pick up fouls when he tries to obtain rebounds or loose balls. In the NBA, he will most likely come off the bench and fouls won't be an issue, but he must show patience in the post and not always go for the ball the second he sees it.
Even though Williams dominated college through hard work and fundamentals, he does not have the potential to be an All-Star player like Thomas and Aldridge. Teams in the Top 10 or so usually go for a guy who may turn out to be a great player rather than someone who is a decent player right now.
Overview:
Unlike some of the players with potential, what you see is what you get with Williams: a blue-collar 4/5 who will work and work and work for every rebound and loose ball. He will be a great bench player for a team in need of a bruiser down low. He is the type of player that is few and far between in today's NBA and will have a long career because of it.
13. Philadelphia 76ers
Randy Foye, PG/SG, Villanova, Senior, 6'3”, 205.
Strengths:
Foye is a classic scoring guard in a big point guard's body. He has the type of game that translates very well to the NBA. He's a great one-on-one player and can get to the basket against almost anyone. He can finish strongly and is willing to take the contact to draw the foul.
He has the typical street ball game that works to his advantage. He has a variety of dribbles, hesitations and fakes that will leave his man leaning one way while he goes the other. He knows how to read his defender. If he has his right foot a bit ahead of his left, Foye will fake towards the defender's strong side and go back and attack his back, immediately being one to two steps ahead of his opponent.
With each season came an increase in points as well as how he can score. He can take it on anyone and uses this to his advantage. When he drives and see just a little bit of space, he will drive to that spot and pull up for the jumper. He has the range on his shot to do this from anywhere on the court, which makes him so lethal on offense.
Each season, he improved his 3-point percentage, which is very hard to do. Each season, he saw an increase in offensive opportunities and used it to his advantage. He showed throughout the season he has NBA range and was not afraid to pull the trigger. His confidence in his offensive abilities spread around through his teammates this season and it helped Villanova go as far as they did.
Although he is a fairly small guard, his size and quick jumping ability enable him to get to rebounds and it helped his team tremendously last season. Each season, he saw an increase in rebounds. He has great instincts for where the ball is coming off the rim on both ends of the floor. He uses his speed to surprise bigs when they think they have the ball. His strong frame translates well to the NBA and the fact that he rebounds will only make him more of an asset for a team in need of rebounding from their guard positions.
On defense, he has the size to give combo guards like himself fits. Because he is so talented on offense, he usually has a great idea on what his opponent is going to do. Foye has quick feet and uses his body to force his man to grind with him, which takes up the amount of time he can run the play. He has great timing for steals both on his man as well as in passing lanes. Once the ball hits his hands, he's gone.
Weaknesses:
Foye is a scoring guard first and a passing guard third. While Foye has the passing ability to get his teammates involved, he is mostly a guard who can put the points up. It's not a big problem, but he's not 6'6”. It helps him that more and more combo guards are starting to emerge, but his size does play a factor is what he will be able to do. He may have a harder time getting by the bigger guards and will most likely be posted up.
Because he hasn't shown he can successfully run a team, he will not be able to get as many minutes on the floor as he would if he were a combo guard who could also play a lot of minutes at the point. Against Florida, in Villanova's last game in the NCAA tournament, Kyle Lowry got into foul trouble early. Foye had the chance to establish himself as a guard who could make the transition to the point. Going down the court, nine times out of ten, he looked for his own shot. He was successful and 'Nova needed the points, but they also needed scoring from everyone and Foye was the only guard who could get by his opponent. He didn't use his opportunities to make many plays for his teammates. Foye was a great scorer in that game, but failed to full prove that he can play the point successfully in the NBA.
Although Foye improved his shooting percentages this year compared to his junior year, he was the type of scorer who is either hot or cold. When he gets hot, he's hot, but when he's cold, he'll try to find the warmth in his shot, which hurt his team at times last season. He has the type of offensive game, which, if used correctly, can be deadly. But his shot selection was off and on and it didn't translate well. He won't get many opportunities to take 10 shots in 20 minutes if he makes three of them.
Defensively, he is a very good defender. But due to playing in a 4-guard lineup, Foye usually guarded bigger players who stayed on the perimeter. Lowry and Allan Ray usually guarded the guards, so Foye rarely guarded the opposing shooting guard or point guard. He'll be fine in this area in the NBA, but he will be tested against guards his size in workouts. If he fails to establish himself, it could hurt his stock a lot. It a bit of a concern because there is a bit of a learning curve when playing defense for a long time on one type of player then trying to play D on another.
Overview:
Foye has the talent to be a very good scoring guard off the bench for a team. If he is able to play with a big and deep front court, like Utah, Foye can succeed because he can play both outside and inside because of his driving abilities. He has the type of game that translates very well to the NBA, but can he play the point?
14. Utah Jazz
Ronnie Brewer, SG/SF/PG, Arkansas, Junior, 6'7”, 200.
Strengths:
Brewer fits the same mold as Mardy Collins. He is a big guard who can play the point as well as be an effective shooting guard. Brewer oozes versatility on both ends of the floor. He has the length to disrupt point guards and the size to successfully defend shooting guards and even small forwards. On offense, he has the size to see over any point guard and the ability to get by either a 2 or 3.
On offense, he knows how to play each position and does so with succession. As a bigger guard, he can see most of the court and knows how to use his size to get the ball to where it needs to be. He has an unbelievable eye for getting the ball in the right spot. He lets the game come to him and reacts rather than thinks. Having the ball in his hands is second nature and being able to pass it with succession makes it easier for his teammates.
Although he has great passing abilities, his handle is what stands out most. He can take with either hand and has great body and ball control when he takes it to the rack. He is a strong finisher despite his frame, which is fairly thin but strong. He is great at creating contact, which got him to the free throw line often. He's a do-it-all type of player and NBA teams covet versatility.
Because of his ability to drive, it throws teams off guard when they realize he can pass it in an instant after taking just one dribble. He can see the defense react before they start to. By the time they react, either he is by them or his teammate has the ball in the best place for a shot. He can also pass in the post. He had a couple of good post players to work with in Darian Townes and Steven Hill. Their numbers don't reflect it, but both were decent at getting good shots off in the post and Brewer played a part in how they received the ball. Passing in the post is a lost art and Brewer is the type of player who can resurrect it. He knew where each one liked the ball. If his opponent would shift a little to one side, Brewer would pass it so the player could receive it and be in step for a hook shot or dunk.
Defensively, he is a ball hawk. He uses his long arms to snatch passes out of the air and have great timing for when and where the ball is going to be. He had eight games where he had over 5 steals and just one game where he didn't record a steal. He uses his feet to spread out his base and knows how to anticipate a pass. He reads the offense like he does when he has the ball. He knows what they want to do and he puts himself in a place where they won't notice him until it's too late.
Weaknesses:
Just like Collins, Brewer is a big guard who, at the moment, doesn't have a defined role. He doesn't have the quickness to stay with most of the NBA's point guards and he doesn't have the strength to contend with big shooting guards and small forwards. He is best when he has the ball in his hands and unless he plays on a team where he will be with a couple of combo guards, like Houston, he will most likely play off the ball.
Unlike Collins, he doesn't have a great jump shot. His form is messed up because of a car injury when he was younger. He ended up having a bar put into his right arm and it hurts how he shoots. He started to show more consistency and looked more comfortable shooting from the 3-point line, but teams will force him to shoot before they let him by.
If Brewer does spend time at the 3, he will have to bulk up a little bit because he rarely guarded people in the post. He has the length to make life hard for players on the perimeter, but he doesn't have the core to body with big guards and small forwards on a nightly basis. Even on offense, he was on the perimeter more. He will be successful on the perimeter in the NBA, but it would help his stock if he can show he can play inside a little bit if needed to.
For a player his size, he didn't show the urge to go after rebounds. He had a good rebounding frontcourt, but Brewer could've really helped his stock by showing tenacity for going for the rebound. He will probably average around what he did in college (4.9), but he has the talent to be a good rebounder. If he can show that he has a nose for the ball, he will improve his stock.
Brewer may be partly to blame, but Arkansas could not get over the hump that is the first round in the NCAA Tournament each year Brewer was there. Whether it is a tough SEC or just bad luck, Brewer had trouble winning at the college level. This probably won't be a factor in how teams look at him, but everything is looked at.
And Brewer was one of the main contributors for Arkansas. If he were the go-to guard, would his team have the same problems in the NBA?
Overview:
While Brewer may not have a defined position, it is clear he will be a very good player in the NBA. Many teams in the Lottery will want his versatility. Even though he fits the bill of a Marko Jaric or other bigger guards, Brewer brings more defensively and that will help him succeed in the NBA.
15. NOK Hornets (via Milwaukee Bucks )
Rudy Fernandez, SG/SF, DKV Joventut (Spain), 21 years old, 6'6”, 175.
Strengths:
Fernandez is an all-around talent. I had a chance to see him in person back in December and he impressed me a lot. Here is the link:
http://www.realgm.com/src_feature_article/78/20060111/scouting_from_the_nosebleeds_rudy_fernandez/
Fernandez has the tools to be a very efficient and effective player on both ends of the floor. He has athleticism that is very rare among European players. He has enough versatility to be an all-around scorer like Manu Ginobili. He may never reach that level, but he has the offensive skill set to.
On offense, he has a very nice shooting touch that extends out to the NBA 3-point range. He never has to shoot it from that far, but he has the ability to. He can come off a screen for a catch & shoot or he can use his amazing handle to drive in for a dunk. He is not afraid of contact and likes drive it when he gets the chance. He is a strong finisher. He is very solid with the ball and can move without it almost like Redick and Morrison. He can do more on offense than those two, but he will probably get overlooked because he's not as known as them.
He can pass the ball better than most players his size. He has the fundamentals to make a difficult pass look easy and an easy pass look difficult. He knows where to put the ball, even though he's not a natural point guard. If needed, he probably could play the point for a couple of minutes here and there but will probably never have to.
Defensively, he can read passes with ease and collects many steals because of this. He has a solid frame that, if the proper weight was added without taking away his athletic ability, will be used very effectively on defense. He is quick to the ball no matter where it is. If there's a long rebound, he can go get it. If there is a loose ball on the floor, Fernandez is one of the first players there.
While Fernandez is not an amazing athlete, he is very smooth. Most of his takes are fluid and are performed with relative ease. He knows what he's doing and is successful when doing it. If there's a play that needs to be made, Fernandez makes it.
Most players his age have trouble with consistency. If he were to have a nickname, it would be “Mr. Consistency.” Night in and night out, Fernandez is the focal point of DKV Joventut's offense. He produces all across the board and it shows in his game.
Weaknesses:
Physically, he's a couple years away from becoming a big factor for an NBA team. He will be solid off the bench, but he will have to work hard to add the necessary weight to contend with starting shooting guards and small forwards.
Defensively, when I saw him, average European guards burned him. If he wants to play a lot of minutes in the NBA, he will have to address this area of his game. He is a smart player and uses his athletic ability to his advantage, but for having such a quick first step on offense, it is fairly slow on D.
When it comes to rebounding, Fernandez is surprising but nothing special. This is one area that could separate him from the other guards in this draft. In that game against Bilbao, Fernandez was standing in one spot when the ball was in the air. He missed a couple of box-outs that could've been converted into put back shots. If he can show that he can rebound better than some of the players in this class, it will boost his stock quite a bit.
On offense, there were some instances where he would stand in one spot, then wait for the ball to go to the top. Then he would move to get it. He is good at moving without the ball, but there were a lot of instances where he would stand like his feet were planted and he couldn't move. NBA teams never want to see this. If he can work on being able to stay in constant motion, even if he's stationary, it will help him and his stock.
Overview:
If he can come over and show teams that he can contend with this year's group of players, he will surprise a lot of people and hear his name called in the Lottery.
Because he plays for a smaller club in Spain, he doesn't get the shine he deserves. If he can play well enough and get drafted in the right situation for him, he will succeed. He has a lot more potential than people give him credit for and he has a chance to prove it next year.
16. Chicago Bulls
Hilton Armstrong, PF/C, UCONN, Senior, 6'11”, 250.
Strengths:
Armstrong is a defensive-minded big first and foremost. He is an inside player in every sense of the term. He has the length to block shots and frame to add on muscle in the NBA. He has great timing for the ball on the defensive end and knows how to keep it in play. A late-bloomer, Armstrong came into his own his senior season.
He is an adequate rebounder. He knows how hold his position and can adapt to where the ball is going to be. Because he was mostly a player who stayed inside,
Armstrong developed great instincts for rebounds on both ends of the floor. He can time the board perfectly for either a tip-dunk or a tip-out to a teammate.
His hands help him grab or tip everything around him. He has the soft basketball hands that can be developed into helping Armstrong develop a good hook shot with either hand. While he doesn't have much offense right now, more work in the post can only help his overall game.
Because he isn't bulky, he can run the floor and was a good finisher thanks to passes from Marcus Williams. His hands played a part in how he was able to get good and bad passes around him. When he comes off the bench, he will be able to use his speed to his advantage because very few big men on NBA benches can run as well as he can. It helped having Williams push the tempo because it forced Armstrong to keep up if he wanted any touches.
Weaknesses:
He has very little game outside of ten feet. He didn't get many minutes because Emeka Okafor was ahead of him in terms of getting minutes, so his senior year was Armstrong's first time to really show what he can do. In his junior year, Armstrong was uses sparingly, so it raises some questions as to whether or not he can play consistently when given the minutes.
Like I've said many times before, a jumper is one of the many areas a player can work on in the NBA. Armstrong is definitely going to have to work on it because it's definitely a couple of years away from keeping teams honest.
Although he played under a great coach in Jim Calhounn, Armstrong still made mistakes a freshman made. He would go for pump fakes, trying to get the block. He would end up drawing a foul and it hurt his minutes. Also, against competition his size, Armstrong failed to fully dominate the way that scouts feel he could. He will never be a dominant force in the NBA, but it would've been nice so see a kid with his
intangibles dominate.
Overview:
Armstrong may have more potential than he showed at UCONN, but teams may be a little wary of him because it took him so long to become just a decent inside player. He will be used on defense immediately and that will probably be his calling in the NBA for years to come. If he can develop more offense, he has the chance to be an effective starting center.
17. Indiana Pacers
J.J. Redick, SG, Duke, Senior, 6'4”, 200.
Strengths:
Redick is the purest shooter to come out college in a long time. He has perfect form and unlimited range on his shot. He is a proven shooter and has an underrated ability to get by his defender. His jump shot will carry him a long way in the NBA.
Redick's ability to move without the ball is rivaled only by Morrison in this draft. While Redick doesn't have Morrison's size, he does have the uncanny ability to get open and release his shot very quickly. He will not stop moving until he knows he has enough space to get his shot off.
Because Redick can shoot from everywhere on the floor, it has helped him go unnoticed in the driving department. He doesn't have a great first step, but his shot is good enough to get people in the air so he can go by them for a finish of some sort. He isn't very clever when trying to finish but he is effective. He will usually pull up from 8-10 feet instead of trying to take on a big man because he lacks the strength to finish like some of the other guards his size. And the lift on his shot is the same 30 feet out as it is 13.
He isn't a natural point guard but he uses his shot to set up other teammates. When he is the second last option, he will draw the closest defender to him to set up a shot for someone else. He will rarely play the point guard spot in the NBA, but he knows that if he had to, he would do a decent job.
Redick isn't gifted when it comes to size or athleticism but he made up for it with hard work. He worked very hard on making sure he can do more than just shoot. He knows how to play the game and knows his limitations. He uses them to the maximum. What you see is what you get with Redick: a great shooter with a dart in his hands who hits the bull's eye more often than not.
Weaknesses:
DE-FENSE! (Clap, clap). DE-FENSE! (Clap, clap).
DE-FENSE! (Clap, clap). DE-FENSE! (Clap, clap).
Redick does not possess any sort of intangibles that will make him a good defender against shooting guards in the NBA. Because he played the 2 in college, he never showed that he could the point. If he didn't do it in college, he won't likely do it in the NBA, which means having to guard players like Jason Richardson, Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Dwyane Wade and so on and so forth. He will get torched on D and it hurts his stock that he hasn't shown that he can be a point in the NBA.
Although he improved his driving abilities, he was going against guards who most likely won't be NBA players. They were around his size so it made him look good. Against Garrett Temple in the Sweet 16 game, Redick was exposed. While Temple may never be an NBA player, he does have the quickness and length that some shooting guards have. Redick could not do anything against LSU, so how will against those bigger guards? Granted, LSU was building their game plan around shutting down Redick, which they did. And NBA teams will never do that with him. But one-on-one, Redick does not possess the necessary athleticism or speed to be a successful all-around offensive guard.
Aside from shooting, Redick did little else. His shooting numbers were great, but every other category was pretty low. He only had two games where he recorded five or more rebounds and assists. He will not be counted on for those types of categories, but it helps to be able to do a little more than just shoot.
While Redick has been with a winning program in Duke, he rarely showed up in the NCAA Tournament. In Duke's four losses in the Tournament with Redick, he never shot over 40% from the floor. Those games were against LSU, Michigan State, UCONN and Kansas. Those are the type of programs that produce NBA-caliber guards. If he couldn't do it against those types of players in the big show, how is he going to do it in the playoffs for a team in need of his scoring abilities down the stretch?
Overview:
Just like with Shelden Williams, what you see is what you get. Redick can flat out shoot and it will carry him to a long NBA career. Everyone talks about his size being an issue, but it didn't stop someone like Jon Barry from having a good NBA career. Redick has the potential to have the longest NBA career out of everyone in this draft. However, if his shot isn't falling, he will not be in the league for long.
18. Washington Wizards
Quincy Douby, PG/SG, Rutgers, Junior, 6'3”, 175.
Strengths:
Douby has the all-around game for a combo guard. He can take it and he has the range on his jumper to be a successful 3-point shooter. But he can play the point and be successful, unlike the smaller guards in this class like Redick and Foye.
As far as his point guard skills go, he can get the ball where it needs to be. He was used as the go-to guy for Rutgers, but Douby made sure that when defenses focused on him, he would return the favor by setting up a teammate for a high percentage shot. He knows how to get the ball where it needs to be in certain situations. He has good vision for being able to find players off drives when the pass looks very awkward.
As a scorer, Douby can do it all. He can shoot outside and slash and drive and dribble his way into the lane. He can get by everyone that tries to guard with an assortment of moves. Behind the back dribbles, crossovers, spin moves, you name it. It's in Douby's bag of tricks. He can use an impossible-to-block floater or he can go strong to the hoop. What's also in his arsenal is the ability to slam on the brakes and pull up for a jumper. Defenses want to be honest with him, but he can do whatever he wants to them and proved it by scoring at will. On the season, Douby was never in single-digits in scoring and only scored ten points once. His worst output after that? 18.
On defense, Douby is right up there with the best of them in this draft. Because he will most likely play the point in the NBA, Douby has the size and quickness to disrupt the opposing guard. He uses his quickness when his player is on the top as well as when he's trying to drive past him. But what impresses me the most is how he's able to block so many shots for a combo guard. He rarely gets the weak side block, but he guards the jump shot relatively well and anticipates when the shot is going to be released.
Turning 22 in June, Douby had a lot of potential to be a very good point/combo guard. He's reportedly played organized ball for just a few years. If he's able to score at will on the college front like he has in the amount of years he's played, I can only imagine how good he can turn out to be.
Weaknesses:
Although Douby had been playing for a few years, he has a lot to catch up on. If his learning curve is as high as I think it is, it won't be a problem for him to adjust to the NBA. But because he's only played for a few years, NBA teams are going to have to work a lot more with him and teach him a few things he may have missed some little things he could've learned early on. It shouldn't be a problem, but his lack of experience compared to other players in this draft is
a bit of a concern.
While Douby has the abilities to be a good point guard, he was a scorer first and second and third with Rutgers. Watching some of their game, I could see why. But even if he were to play in the NBA, it's unknown how well his game will translate because if he's on a good team with a great frontcourt, he will rarely have the ball. What type of effect will he have on the court off the ball? Can he still be effective? I imagine he will be, but he needs to show in workouts against his competition that he can play off the ball. There was a few times where he wouldn't move because he didn't have the ball in his hands. This can be worked on, but he will have to show that he can play at a successful rate without the ball.
At 175 pounds, Douby is by no means a strong player. He has muscle, but his frame doesn't look like it can really add on 10-15 pounds of muscle and still have the same effect. These types of things can be worked on and it will help that he's playing the point. But if he's playing at the 2 for even two minutes, NBA teams will exploit that match-up immediately. It'll take time for him to grow into his body, but for now, it will be a problem.
Like most New Yorkers, he wears his heart on his sleeve. When they were winning, it's always good because he will show his passion for winning. But when they were losing, and they lost a lot, Douby tended to have the “it's not my fault” look that comes across players. Being the leader for Rutgers, it stood out because the team needed him. He brought it every game, don't get me wrong, but he needs to show a better attitude on the court. Even when his team is losing.
Overview:
While Douby played at a smaller school, the way that he scored and provided for his teammates really stood out. After playing for just a few years, it is evident that he has a lot to learn but if he takes everything in, he has the chance to be a very good player for a team that draft late. He has the type of game that, if he impresses in workouts, will boost his stock. As long as he goes to a team where he has time to learn the NBA game and grow into a better point guard, he will have a fine career.
19. Sacramento Kings
Patrick O'Bryant, C, Bradley, Sophomore, 7'0”, 260.
Strengths:
O'Bryant, one of the few true centers in college, has the size and intangibles to be an effective center. He rarely stayed outside on the perimeter and that's what NBA covet out of centers. Even though versatility is very nice, a kid like O'Bryant can be groomed into a solid center.
When it comes to O'Bryant, potential is definitely a word to describe him. At just 19 (he'll be 20 at the end of June), he's one of the few players in this draft that has age working for him. It takes longer for centers to develop, but O'Bryant has enough to work with to get around 10-15 minutes immediately because of his natural size while growing into his body and learning the nuances of being an NBA center.
Even at 19, O'Bryant showed he has a developing hook shot that is very hard to block. He gets good position in the post and rises over his defender to shoot it. Even though he still needs to add a lot of muscle, he is not shy of banging and taking any hits. He knows no matter where he is in the post; he has a chance to score.
On defense, O'Bryant does one thing that all centers should be able to do: block shots. He is able to use his big body to either alter the shot or block it when an opposing guard goes up for a lay-up or floater. He uses his athleticism to get air to reach shots and keeps the ball in play. He failed to block a shot in just two games this year, showing consistency in an area that NBA teams want to see a young kid like him show consistency in.
His breakout game came against potential first round pick Aaron Gray of Pittsburgh. Most of his points came from an assortment of post moves and from the free throw line. If he continues to work on his post-up game and free throw shooting, O'Bryant has the chance to be a good scorer inside because he has the type of moves that can get him to the free throw line often. His drop step looked very good against Gray, who has an NBA body himself.
Because O'Bryant isn't fully developed, he is a quick athlete, being able to get up and down the court with ease. Compared to Gray, O'Bryant looked great at being able to beat his man down and establishing solid position in the post. Gray is one of the more un-athletic centers in college, so O'Bryant looked very good. But even against a below average center, the fact that Gray is a legit 7 feet only helped his case.
Weaknesses:
Because he's so young, it's going to take a while for him to grow into his body. Even if he lifts weights constantly, he will be at least 2-3 years away from becoming a consistent low-post presence. Bigger players take longer to develop and teams will have to be very patient with his growth.
Because he's so young, against smaller yet more athletic players, O'Bryant struggles to hold his own. Their quickness disrupts what he wants to do. He isn't a slow athlete, but he does like to take his time. In the NBA, the faster the better. More athletic players will push him around early and often.
Against Memphis, O'Bryant was exposed. While he had a great game against Gray, Memphis' Joey Dorsey, a thick and athletic center, gave O'Bryant problems and he never found his touch offensively. He found that he would have a hard time scoring and looked to pass almost every time he touched the ball. He also looked relatively winded against Dorsey. Although he won't be asked to play the amount of minutes he was playing against the likes of Dorsey, his conditioning could and should improve.
Even though it's good that he plays inside all the time, it would've been nice to see him show some kind of mid range game throughout the season. A jumper can come in time, but it does take into account how well he can keep teams honest. When he gets playing time, teams will rarely give him a chance to establish good position inside, so a jump shot would help him keep teams honest. Once he develops one, he will be much better overall.
Overview:
O'Bryant is the type of kid that, in 4 years, can be a very effective center. He has the type of game for a center that is rare among players his age. If he can develop a better mid range game, and by better I mean an actual game to speak of, he will become a solid center. It's going to take him time to grow and develop, but he has the potential that teams covet in the draft. After all, teams sign free agents to help the present and draft for the future.
20. New York Knicks (via Toronto)
Sergio Rodriguez, PG, Adecco Estudiantes (Spain), 19
years old, 6'3”, 170.
Strengths:
Rodriguez has one of the most exciting games a point guard can have. He has the handle to get by his opponent. He has the moves to make a crowd cheer and the nifty passes to make the defense look one way while he's passing the other. Rodriguez is one of the better point guards in this draft and has the potential to be the first point guard taken if he can come over and tear up his opponents in workouts.
Rodriguez was also one of the players I saw in action while in Spain. Here is the link to that article:
http://www.realgm.com/src_feature_article/75/20051222/tales_from_spain_sergio_rodriguez/
Rodriguez has the passing ability of a Steve Nash, Jason Kidd or Jason Williams. He can add flash to the most fundamental play and make it look sick. He knows where to get the ball and does so with succession. He usually makes the right pass and gets it in a comfortable spot for his teammate. His assist number may look low at first glance, but European basketball count assists the old way and the right way. There's no dribble or basketball move made and his numbers look small because of it. If he were playing college ball right now, he would be the leader in assists.
Even though Rodriguez is a pure point guard, he is amazing to watch because of the way he handles the ball. Nicknamed the “Spanish Magician,” Rodriguez uses a variety of dribbles to get by his man. His favorite and the hardest to predict is his behind-the-back dribble. He has very long arms, yet it's the lack of shoulder movement that makes it so intriguing. He has the relentlessness of Juan Carlos Navarro, a great Spanish point guard. If Navarro had Rodriguez's point guard abilities, he would be starting for an NBA team right now.
Rodriguez is an adept finisher. He's not the strongest player by any means, so when he draws contact, he has to make sure he finishes. He uses a variety of lay-ups, floaters and reverses to get the ball in the hoop. He knows how to put it up near the basket, no matter where he is. If he has to use a lot of English to get the ball in, he will.
On his jumper, he has good form. It's not great, but he has the type of lift and release on his shot that if he leaves short, it has the touch to bounce around the rim and possibly go in. A lot of players fail to use arc, but Rodriguez is no exception. He usually jumps and shoots in one fluid motion. Looking at his numbers, it doesn't look like he can shoot, but that is not the case. Against Alta Gestion Fuenlabrada in that game I watched, Rodriguez had to put up a lot of shots when the shot clock was winding down.
Weaknesses:
He has the body and tools to be a solid defender, but he just could not play one-on-one defense against average guards. He would always be one step behind them when they started their drives. If he wants to make sure he's a first round pick and a potential Lottery pick, he will have to show teams that he can play defense against some of this year's point guard crop.
Although he's a great passer, he tends to force the issue a lot. He will take it into traffic and try to either make an impossible pass or force up a shot when it's completely unnecessary. He will have to show more control with the ball and not make rash decisions. As a point guard, the more the ball is turned over; the team has less of a chance of winning.
Even though he has good form on his jumper, he isn't a consistent jump shooter. His mechanics seem fine, but whenever he releases the ball, even he doesn't know if it's going it or out. A jump shot can be worked on, but he will have to show that he can make jumpers consistently in workouts if he decides to stay in. One thing I noticed, in that game against Fuenlabrada is when he jumps, he usually makes it. But when he doesn't put any effort into his jump, there's no chance the shot is going in.
He has the body to be an effective point guard, but he will have to hit the weights a lot. He has a skinny frame and it will hurt him a lot in the NBA if he doesn't bulk up. Whenever he took contact, he wouldn't be in full control. He will have to show that he can take the contact on both his drives and when guarding opposing players.
Overview:
Rodriguez definitely has a little ways to go, but he is one of the most gifted players in this year's SFT. He knows what to do with the ball and makes amazing plays. If he can show that he can guard the drive against opposing guards, he has a shot to go in the Lottery and be the first one taken. If he struggles, I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled out. Either way, he definitely has a bright future ahead of him and can become one of the most exciting point guards in the NBA.
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