This MVP column looks strictly at what advanced stats can tell us about which player actually has the most value to his team, with the strong emphasis being on “his team.”
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The back-to-back games on Sunday and Monday launched NBA observers into a frenzy imagining how exciting a first round matchup between the Lakers and Warriors would be.
I would love to see the Warriors meet the Lakers because they both play such an attractive brand of basketball which rewards and highlights skilled players, but I actually (even as a Warriors' fan) have mild expectations for the competitiveness of the meeting, if it happens.
1. Odom Destroys The Warriors
Lamar Odom has a per 40 FIC of 21.19 in four games against the Warriors this season. With his length, he absolutely kills them on the glass, averaging 17.0 rebounds in four games. The Lakers have outrebounded Golden State by a margin of +7.7 per game.
Odom has also averaged 18.5 points on 48.3% shooting.
2. Golden State Settles For Too Many 3-Pointers In Halfcourt
The Lakers have discovered a surefire way to control the Warriors in the halfcourt: stick Odom on Stephen Jackson and Kobe Bryant on Baron Davis. No other player on Golden State is capable of posting up and the length of both Lakers nullifies the strength of both Jackson and Davis. The Lakers deployed this strategy to perfection in Monday's game, and as a result, the Warriors frequently shot early possession 3-pointers knowing that grinding it out in the halfcourt would accomplish little.
3. They Are Even Only When Gasol And Bynum Are On The Shelf
The Warriors have yet to see Pau Gasol in purple and gold, and Andrew Bynum has played very well in his two appearances, averaging 18.5 points and 13.5 rebounds.
With Gasol on the floor, the Lakers will essentially have three seven-foot scorers, unlike the Mavericks' single scoring seven-footer who was able to be neutralized by strong-bodied guards.
In his one game against Golden State this season (back when he was with the Grizzlies), Gasol scored 43 points on 68% shooting while also grabbing 11 boards.
Bynum is not a lock to even return and will certainly not be as effective as he was in December, but the boost from Gasol alone will be significant.
4. Kobe Has Been Decidedly Average Against GSW
Kobe injured himself during the 4th quarter of the second game and has been extremely ordinary overall. He has shot 36.8% from the floor and just 23.1% from 3-point territory. Like the rest of the club, he has rebounded well against the Warriors, averaging 9.3 rebounds.
5. Fisher Is Maximized Against The Warriors
Fisher, a former member of the Warriors, frustrates Baron endlessly and cannot be outmuscled on the defensive end.
The above cheapshot (can't think of a gentler way to describe it) occurred in last year's playoffs during the middle of Fisher's emotional saga following his daughter's diagnosis of retinoblastoma.
Fisher is also one of the finest spot-up 3-point shooters in the game. He is the ideal parachute scoring option especially to negate the zone defense that Golden State uses to crutch their deficiencies on the glass and up front.
...The Warriors are certain to win one game at home, the boost from playing at that arena is too significant to ignore or diminish, but I see the Lakers winning (decidedly) in five games, six games max.
On the other hand, if the Warriors drew New Orleans or Houston, I would declare them the favorites despite the seed discrepancy.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of The Reina Value.
