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Authored by Christopher Reina - 5th May, 2008 - 7:38 pm
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Final Thoughts On The 2008 NBA Draft
This year's draft was decidedly more calm and casual than the Oden/Durant showdown, which made for a more candid and personal experience.
'Improved' Wizards Defense Is A Fallacy
Read a mainstream media account about the Wizards, and you would think they were a significantly improved defensive team. The numbers tell a very different story.
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Admittedly, I didn't think the Grizzlies were fleeced too badly when they traded Pau Gasol, which was maybe 25% because I like Javaris Crittenton so much. But that says more about how jaded and accepting I at last have become towards salary dumps over the past few seasons.
This is an NBA where Baron Davis was traded for Speedy Claxton and Dale Davis, and Steve Francis was traded for Trevor Ariza (Magic won that trade on talent, as well), among a host of other trades, so since Memphis was unspeakably bad with Gasol and his contract looked more like an albatross than a Kobe-life jacket, I really didn't flinch and thought a full scale rebuild was the correct move. The Bulls were playing paddy-cake with their assets and getting a KG-caliber package was always out of the question.
Small market teams really don't have a chance to compete in the NBA unless they get lucky once or twice in the lottery and draft shrewdly with those non-lottery selections.
The Grizzlies lost their pick to Detroit in the 2003 lottery, and perhaps the gods of Secaucus will grant them Michael Beasley, who would be the frighteningly ideal fit at power forward.
Player: Overall Rank, Season FIC, Per 40 FIC, Reina Value
- Rudy Gay: 45th 947, 12.7, +361%
Gay positively broke out this season and is the Grizzlies' focal building block moving forward. As a rookie he had a 9.3 per 40 FIC, so he made a 3.4 jump and looks like he can notch that up to that 16.2 per 40 territory of a Carmelo Anthony at the three. Speaking of Carmelo, his own sophomore NBA season saw him post a per 40 FIC of 11.2, which was a downgrade of his rookie season 11.4.
Unlike Carmelo, who scored just 19% of his points in the all-important 4th quarter, Gay scored 27% of his points in the final frame. He had an eFG% of 60.4% in 'clutch' situations, which 82games.com defines as less than five minutes left in the game with neither team ahead by more than five points.
He averaged 20.1 points per game on 46% shooting while grabbing 6.2 rebounds, 1.37 steals and just under a block. The shooting percentage jump from his rookie season was by four points and he was almost six points better from the line. His efficiency as a rebounder and assist man both declined, but the former will improve as he naturally get stronger and the latter will improve as he sees more double-teams.
- Mike Miller: 59th 847, 13.8, +11%
Miller improved from a season ago raising his per 40 FIC a full point, shooting 4.2 percentage points better from the field and 2.6 from 3-point territory while also rebounding better like he did in 05-06.
He gives the Grizzlies some stability and will still be a trade candidate as they rebuild.
- Kyle Lowry: 116th, 604, 11.6, +430%
Lowry proved he could stay healthy and was one of the Grizzlies third most productive player. He shot 43.2% from the field, but just 25.7% from 3-point territory and 69.8% from the line. At 6-0, Lowry will need to become a significantly better shooter to be a reliable point guard. He did have one of the best +/- on the club, but ideally he would be a 15-20 minute a night point guard on a team that wants to make the playoffs.
- Hakim Warrick: 143rd, 519, 11.8, +239%
Warrick took a nice step forward, improving his per 40 FIC from 10.9 last season, 7.5 his rookie season to 11.8 this season. His rebounding efficiency stayed almost static and his field goal percentage dropped slightly, but he was far less turnover prone and played better defense though he is still very bad. I think everyone was expecting Warrick to be a much better shotblocker than a once every 40+ minutes variety. He fell in love with his own ineffective jumper too much this season; 63% of his shot attempts were jumpers this season compared to 48% the season before. Until/unless he can fill out his body, he will remain an undersize power forward who is a liability when he is on the floor for heavy minutes.
- Juan Carlos Navarro: 160th 478, 9.1, +645%
Navarro exceeded expectations, but the trade shows some short-sightedness on the part of the front office. He was primarily acquired because of his friendship with Gasol, who had one foot out the door for a few years before the trade. Navarro will be a restricted free agent and with that glut of small backcourt players, a sign and trade would be a wise way to cut some losses even though that first round pick isn't coming back from Washington.
- Darko Milicic: 172nd, 445, 10.7, -42%
Darko's minutes stayed the same, but he shot just 43.8% from the field and also declined his percentage from the line. He had a career high in RPG, but his rebound rate decreased. His signing was a mistake, and even though he doesn't run 23 until right before the draft, it is safe to say that this is as good as Darko will ever become.
- Mike Conley: 212th, 366, 10.6, -18%
Prior to the draft, I thought the Blazers should send LaMarcus Aldridge and Jarrett Jack to Atlanta for Conley and with a season and year in hindsight, the only winner of that trade would have been the Grizzlies. They would have landed Al Horford, whom I would prefer over Aldridge, whom I definitely prefer over Conley, especially when you have Lowry and Crittenton on your roster and have a reasonable chance at landing Derrick Rose in June.
He shot 42.8% from the field and had a nice 2.5 assist to turnover ratio. Injuries limited him to just 53 games, but it was a successful season for the 20-year-old.
- Kwame Brown: 274th, 192, 10.8, -81%
Brown was a 12.1 per 40 FIC player last season and dropped back down to where we have come to known him this season. He once again battled injuries and overall ineffectiveness; as an unrestricted free agent, he will be lucky to make 25% of his $9.38 million contract from 07-08, although I fully expect that to happen since there are so many athletic 6-11 bigs out there and his lack of offense and hands will be overlooked.
- Javaris Crittenton: 293rd, 146, 8.6, +5%
Crittenton scored 7.4 points in 18.1 minutes per game for Memphis in his 28 games with the club. He had a +6.4 net points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor. He shot just 40.0% from the field but showed some glimpses of supreme talent though he is young and raw.
- Jason Collins: 323th, 105, 3.6, -84
Collins has one more season left at $6.2 million and will continue being a bit player if he is not bought out altogether at some point during the season.
- Andre Brown: 335th, 87, 12.2, +16%
Brown played sparingly until four games in April when he averaged 13.0 points and 11.5 rebounds per game in 28 minutes a night. He shot 55.3% from the field in what was the most impressive stint of his career.
- Brian Cardinal: 340th 81, 7.4, -86%
Cardinal had one of the absolute worst contracts in the NBA (as widely reported since Jerry West signed him), but what is especially disheartening was his field goal percentage of 34.1%, a drop of 15% from 06-07. Before he signed that contract, he had a 13.4 per 40 FIC for Golden State in 03-04.
- Casey Jacobsen: 362nd, 59, 4.3, +0%
Jacobsen was drafted in the first round in 2002 with the intention of being a 3-point specialist, but it has never happened for the Stanford product; he shot just 22.2% this season. He doesn't have a contract for next season and is likely heading back to Europe.
How The Grizzlies Were Acquired
Conley, Gay, Lowry, and Warrick were acquired via the draft.
A. Brown, Cardinal, Jacobsen, McKie, and Millicic were free agent acquisitions.
K. Brown, Collins, Crittenton, Miller, and Navarro were acquired via trades.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and the creator of The Reina Value which determines the value of players in relation to their contract. |
