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Authored by Christopher Reina/Jon Nichols - 21st December, 2008 - 11:49 pm
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In a new series with Jon Nichols of Basketball-Statistics.com, I pose a question that has been on my mind and he examines the statistical evidence.
CR: One thing that has always been interesting to me, Jon, is how Carmelo Anthony is considered a superstar and a good scorer, but he has always had a very ordinary offensive rating in comparison to a LeBron or Charles Barkley. How does he really compare as a scorer and how can he become more efficient?
JN: If you look at the offensive ratings of Anthony, James, and Barkley, you see that Carmelo is significantly behind the other two in terms of
career numbers. Barkley posted a rating of 119 for his career, LeBron is at 112, and Carmelo is last at 106. That's a pretty big difference, especially when you consider that 106 is usually around the league average. Obviously Carmelo is not an average offensive player, but in terms of pure efficiency, he is (at least so far).
The biggest problem with Anthony is that, in all of the aspects that go into offensive rating (shooting percentages, assists, offensive rebounds, turnovers), he's not particularly good in any of them. Take a look at LeBron James, who's offensive rating isn't even among the league leaders. LeBron's true shot percentage (.551), offensive rebound percentage (3.6%), and turnover percentage (11.6%) are nothing special. However, he makes up for it with an assist rate of 32 that rivals most of the league's top point guards.
Next, lets check out Barkley, who's offensive rating is spectacular. He turns the ball over a lot and doesn't get a bunch of assists, but he makes up for it with the other two categories. For his career, he grabbed 12.5% of his teams' misses and had a very high true shot percentage of .612. His rating of 119 would generally be towards the top of the league.
Finally, let's examine Carmelo. His true shot percentage is just .544, he turns the ball over more than the other two, his offensive rebounding is OK but only half of Barkley's, and his passing is the lowest of the three. He doesn't have that one thing that makes him extremely effective. He's a high volume scorer capable of creating his shot at ease (and this is very useful), but he's not especially efficient.
So how can Anthony improve? Because he's relatively equal in all of the categories, you can't really pinpoint one thing. To improve his shooting percentages, he should work on his shot selection (but you don't need me to tell you that). His three-point shooting isn't great, so he should either work on that or limit the amount he takes. Crashing the offensive boards would help. Lastly, ball-handling and passing should be worked on. He draws a lot of attention, so instead of forcing up tough shots with multiple defenders guarding him, he should look for easy opportunities for his teammates. Going along
with this theme, if he doesn't try to do too much, his turnovers will go down.
This all comes with a big caveat. Improving his efficiency will most likely require decreasing his role in the offense. The big decision comes: are the Nuggets better with Anthony creating a lot of offense
and allowing his teammates to only shoot what they can make, or are they better off sharing the ball more and expanding the roles of other players? It all comes down to the skills of those other players, and
the Nuggets coaches would know more than me about that.
CR: If Carmelo isn't as efficient offensively as those other players, then who does he compare to most closely? Do you think his career path follows an Alex English?
Furthermore, with the Nuggets playing well since the Chaunce Billups trade and playing beside a creator like that, why do you believe his efficiency has decreased this season? His 3-point shooting is at a career high of 41.3%, but from the floor he is more rookie Melo than six-year veteran Melo.
Do you believe this is just a typical shooting slump or is his ceiling of offensive efficiency about 110?
JN: Well, if you compare Carmelo and English through their first six seasons, they have a relatively equal PER. However, English was more efficient according to Offensive Rating, where he holds a five-point advantage. The only significant reason for this is rebounding. English had an offensive rebound percentage of 9.4, compared to 6.3 for Melo.
According to John Hollinger's numbers, Anthony at this age compares most closely to Kobe Bryant (I'm sure Nuggets fans would be pleased with that). Personally, he reminds me of Antawn Jamison, a gifted offensive player who was highly renowned coming out of college but who struggles on defense. Remember, we haven't talked about defense yet, which is Melo's biggest weakness.
His efficiency has decreased because his shooting is tied for the second-worst of his career and he's turning the ball over more than he ever has. I can see why he may be turning the ball over more. Billups is excellent but he doesn't create as much offense as Iverson, so perhaps Anthony is trying too hard to pick up some of the slack (I don't think he should - Denver has plenty of capable scorers). The
shooting I don't really get. He's taking more three's and making more of them than he ever has, so it would seem that his true shot percentage would go up. The problem is he's struggling with two's. That could go back to trying to do too much, or it could just be a
shooting slump. It's early in the season so we'll have to wait and see on that.
- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM
- Jon Nichols is the creator and editor of Basketball-Statistics. Check out the site for more stuff like this, including Jon's own player rating system called Composite Score. Also, look for daily
statistical recaps of each night's games. |
