This is unquestionably a fairly wide open NCAA Tournament. How do the 65 teams rank in terms of their odds of winning the National Championship?

The Eventual Champion

1. UCLA (1): The Bruins are my favorite (by a fairly wide margin if they end up healthy) to win the National Championship. They have Final Four experience, reaching the final in 2006 and the semifinals last year in Atlanta, a not so problematical bracket and most importantly, the best balance of talent in the field.

The addition of Kevin Love and the emergence of Russell Westbrook, gives them components (interior rebounding and perimeter defense) that they didn’t really have last season while Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have all improved.

To win it all you need a nice balance of guard-play and interior scoring, and UCLA does that better than anyone else in the field.

The Other Final Four Teams

2. Kansas (1): Like UCLA, the Jayhawks have tremendous balance in all facets of the game and great depth. With Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson, and Sasha Kaun up front, and Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Sherron Collins, and Russell Robinson in the backcourt, Kansas has plenty of talent to withstand anyone in their region.

Possible moment of high intrigue could come in the Elite Eight against K-State.

3. North Carolina (1): The Tar Heels won’t have to leave the state to get to the Final Four, playing their first two games in Raleigh before the regional in Charlotte. The Tyler Hansborough-era teams have met their demise at the hands of George Mason and Georgetown and could see the Patriots again in the Sweet 16 this year. But it is very unlikely that a DC Metro team will shatter their Final Four hopes. Louisville is really the only team that could challenge them in the East.

4. Stanford (3): Brook Lopez is the kind of player that can carry a team like Stanford to the Final Four with the best interior game in the country. His supporting cast will not make too many mistakes, so if they can get elevated guard-play from Mitch Johnson and enough scoring from Robin Lopez to alleviate the Brook double-teams, they will be the last man standing in the difficult South region.

The Teams I Love But Hate Who They Have To Play

5. Memphis (1): I’ve already heard some people say the East is the toughest region, but without question it is the South for me. There are six schools (Memphis, Texas, Stanford, Pittsburgh, Michigan State and Marquette), who are good enough to get to the Final Four in any region.

In seven-game or even three-game series, Memphis would eventually win out purely on the depth of their talent. But with such a tough road to San Antonio, including going through the middle of Texas, I think their streakiness will leave them vulnerable.

Regardless, I believe we will see a Derrick Rose who will more actively seek to takeover games (especially as a scorer) as he did in small spurts throughout the season.

6. Texas (2): Texas has a great pedigree of schedule, beating Tennessee, UCLA, and Kansas, but I think their lack of size will get them into problems. D.J. Augustin is one of the premier playmakers in this tournament, but Connor Atchley and Damion James will determine the Longhorns’ ceiling.

7. Louisville (3): Rick Pitino’s team finished the Big East regular season with nine-consecutive wins before losing a close one at Georgetown. They have battled injuries throughout the season, but their losses to BYU, Dayton, and Purdue are bothersome. Their defense can be suffocating, and Earl Clark has come on strong of late. I also like their chances in a potential Sweet 16 game against Tennessee.

Talented 2’s But Don’t Like Their Chances At All

8. Tennessee (2): They were a dangerous team in last year’s tournament and are, of course, much improved with Tyler Smith, but I think they have too many duplicate parts to get too far. I think they will go as Wayne Chism goes up front.

9. Georgetown (2): The Hoyas (somewhat flukishly) reached the Final Four a year ago, and I think they will be unable to repeat the task. I like the improvement of Patrick Ewing, love the experience of Roy Hibbert and Jonathan Wallace, and the versatility of Dajuan Summers, but I look at their schedule and see numerous narrow fortunate wins and not too many excessively impressive wins.

10. Duke (2): Out of the four number two seeds, the Blue Devils will be most vulnerable in their second round game because of West Virginia and Arizona.

They also finished the season by losing four out of five games and haven’t reached the Final Four since 2004.

Could See Them Slip In

11. Wisconsin (3): The Badgers were a sexier team last season when Alando Tucker was a dominant senior, but they might be better with the combination of Michael Flowers and Trevon Hughes.

12. Pittsburgh (4): The Panthers are playing with a lot of swagger right now after winning the Big East tournament. I like their talent up front with Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, and Jamie Dixon is one of the most underrated/under-mentioned coaches in college basketball.

13. Arizona (10): Maybe it was because I was a last second decision away from going to college in Tucson, but the Wildcats have always held a special place in my heart, and they especially do this season because they have such a talented big three in Jerryd Bayless, Chase Budinger, and Jordan Hill.

This is the time of year when their amazing RPI should really mean something, particularly with the return of Nic Wise from injury.

They have lost seven out of their last 11 games and have been erratic during a tumultuous off-the-court season, but they also took Kansas to overtime in Lawrence and looked very good a few Saturdays ago at home against UCLA. I really like the odds of seeing an all-Pac-10 regional final (in Phoenix) against the Bruins, largely because the West region is so weak.

14. Connecticut (4): The Huskies exceeded expectations this season largely due to the breakout play of A.J. Price, who averaged 14.9 points and 6.0 assists per game. Hasheem Thabeet has made a dramatic improvement from his freshman season, and Jeff Adrien is one of the most underrated players in the Big East.

15. Michigan State (5): After a 19-2 start, which included a narrow loss to UCLA and wins of Texas, Purdue, and BYU, the Spartans were .500 over their final 12 games.

New Neitzel and Raymar Morgan receive the majority of the attention from opposing defenses, but Drew Naymick and Goran Suton finished the season strong.

I have come to expect Tom Izzo teams to overachieve in March.

16. Vanderbilt (4): They are an extremely entertaining team to watch, and I love the play of Shan Foster and A.J. Ogilvy. They are a team of streaks, winning their first sixteen games before losing four out of five in SEC play. The Commodores then went on a seven-game win streak, including a 72-69 win over briefly number one ranked Tennessee.

Not A Believer

17. Xavier (3): Xavier returns to the tournament as a number three seed one year after playing the most exciting game of last year’s tournament against in-state rival Ohio State.

They have tremendous balance, but I think they will struggle against the winner of the Purdue/Baylor matchup, and if they reach the Sweet 16, Duke/Arizona/West Virginia are more battle-tested and arguably more talented.

18. Clemson (5): The Tigers have just one win over a ranked opponent (Duke in the ACC tournament), but they do have non-conference victories over Mississippi State, Purdue, and Alabama.

K.C. Rivers is one of the most underrated players in the country averaging 14.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game while shooting 41% from 3-point territory while James Mays and Trevor Booker are very effective up front.

Even though I like Clemson, I think they are the most vulnerable of the perennially vulnerable number five seeds, especially facing the Big East Villanova Wildcats.

The Dangerously Good But Not Good Enough Big East Teams

19. Marquette (6): I don’t think the Big East has a team that has a legitimate chance of winning the National Championship, but I throw the Golden Eagles in that category of Final Four contenders along with Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh, and UConn.

They should have beaten Georgetown at home a few Saturdays ago and impressively beat Notre Dame in the tournament.

This is now Jerel McNeal’s team, but they need Wesley Matthews and Dominic James to outplay Stanford’s backcourt in order to advance past the second round.

20. West Virginia (7): Joe Alexander has been playing inspired basketball going for 30 or more points in three of his last six games. The Mountaineers are peaking at the perfect time and could easily upset Duke if they get past Arizona in the first round.

21. Notre Dame (5): The Fighting Irish remind me of one of those NBA teams that wins 50 games and is an early exit out of the playoffs because they are already playing as good as they can and don’t have the talent to elevate their game. This is why they lost to Marquette in the Big East tournament and why their March will be short-lived.

The Dangerously Good But Not Good Enough Pac-10 Team

22. Washington State (4): Kyle Weaver will be a very good 2nd round pro while Derrick Low and Robbie Cowgill have done a ton with a little, but they cannot even begin to entertain notions of defeating UNC, even if they squeak past Notre Dame.

The Chaos Theory Chance

23. USC (6): They meet Kansas State in the first round, which has a ton of storylines, between the O.J. Mayo/Bill Walker reunion and the Michael Beasley/Mayo battle. Beyond maybe West Virginia/Arizona, it should be the best game of the first round. The bottom half of the Midwest bracket is wide open, and they are just two hot shooting Mayo nights away from the Sweet 16.

The Trojans have beaten the best team in the country (UCLA) and also narrowly lost to region number one Kansas in December.

Additionally, the supporting cast of Taj Gibson, Davon Jefferson, and Daniel Hackett is decidedly underrated.

24. Indiana (8): Gordon has missed 40 of his last 50 3-point attempts as the Hoosiers limp into the tournament. But even though it appears the team has quit on Dan Dakich, this team has enough areas of strength to give the Tar Heels a decent game if they can defeat Arkansas.

25. Kansas State (11): Because I’m not very bullish on Georgetown or Wisconsin for that matter and K-State already knows they can beat Kansas, I don’t think I’ve ever liked the chances of an 11th seed so much.

The Wildcats’ problem has been stringing together a series of victories mainly because of the inconsistency of Bill Walker and Jacob Pullen.

The Not Enough Talent Section

26. Purdue (6): I would be hard-pressed to find a team that has overachieved more than Matt Painter. The Boilermakers defeated Wisconsin twice, as well as Louisville.

27. Oklahoma (6): Nearly every part of Blake Griffin’s body has been hurt this season, and even though he will be a POY favorite next season if stays in school, they are a below-average sixth seed. They were blown out by Texas in the Big 12 tournament and have recently lost to Nebraska and Colorado.

Griffin will show up no matter what, but they’ll need a great game from Tony Crocker to even get past St. Joseph’s.

28. Gonzaga (7): Mark Few and the Bulldogs have now reached the tournament for 10 consecutive seasons but were last seen in the Sweet 16 in 2006 when they were knocked off by UCLA.

Jeremy Pargo and Matt Bouldin have had nice seasons, but this team is decidedly less talented than previous editions.

29. Drake (5): Like the Drake? With apologies to Adam Emmenecker, I really don’t see how they’re ranked so high. They shoot the ball extremely well, but they will live and die by the 3-pointer and will have a tough time against squads that are big and athletic.

30. Butler (7): Butler had nice wins over Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Ohio State, and Florida State, but schools from conferences like the Horizon League are always boxes of chocolate for me, and I think South Alabama is not a good matchup for them.

The Only Pro Scouts Will Care Team

31. Texas A&M (9): The Aggies are a randomly awful team with talented pieces like Josh Carter, Joseph Jones, and lottery prospect DeAndre Jordan. I was expecting them to be much better when the season began- this is one of the worst underachieving teams in the country.

The Darkhorses

32. Mississippi State (8): I love their chances against Oregon, primarily because I love Jamont Gordon, and Jarvis Varnado is the most prolific shot blocker in the country. Charles Rhods has come on strong of late, and the Bulldogs could give Memphis a difficult second round opponent, particularly if they control the pace.

33. Baylor (11): I like Baylor’s chances in the first round against Purdue. Curtis Jerrells is a very good ,and any team that can win a quintuple overtime game at Texas A&M is prepared for the Madness of March.

34. South Alabama (10): Demetric Bennett heads up an intriguing Jaguars' team that narrowly lost to Ole Miss and Vanderbilt but beat Mississippi State and Western Kentucky twice. A higher seed was anticipated before they were knocked off in their conference semifinals.

Below The Middle Of The Pack Teams

35. Arkansas (9): The Razorbacks have decent depth, led by Sonny Weems and Patrick Beverley, but I’m afraid they are a product of a weak SEC. Their non-conference schedule included losses at Providence and Oklahoma.

36. Miami (7): Frank Haith has done a great job with this Hurricanes’ team as they were expected to be among the bottom of the ACC. Jack McClinton averages 17 points per game, and Dwayne Collins has moments of brilliance down low.

37. BYU (8): Trent Plaisted and Lee Cummard make BYU a dangerous Mountain West team. They narrowly beat Louisville in the Las Vegas Invitational before losing to UNC by 10 points. They also lost to Boise State and UNLV twice.

38. Davidson (10): Jason Richards leads the nation in assists even though Stephen Curry gets the majority of the ink.

39. UNLV (8): Wink Adams and the Runnin’ Rebels are back in the tourney, winning the MWC tournament for the second consecutive season. They reached the Sweet 16 last year, but behind Adams, Curtis Terry, and 27-year-old Corey Bailey, there wasn’t as much of a drop-off as anticipated.

The Big Underdogs In Supposedly Close Matchups

40. Oregon (9): Ernie Kent’s Ducks have underachieved all season long, and I don’t anticipate it changing here in the tournament. If Oregon can knock off Mississippi State in the first round, it will validate many of the testaments to the difficulty of the 07-08 Pac-10.

41. Kent State (9): Haminn Quaintance and Al Fisher lead the Golden Flashes who recently defeated St. Mary’s in Moraga. They won the Mid-American tournament championship for the second time in three years.

42. St. Mary’s (10): The Gaels’ win over then 12-ranked Oregon put them on the map, but it has decreased in significance as the Ducks struggled. But, they also beat Drake, Seton Hall, and Gonzaga. Patrick Mills and Diamon Simpson lead Randy Bennett’s club. If they can get past Miami, it would set up a second round rematch with Texas.

The Bracket Buster

43. St. Joseph’s (11): Pat Calathes and the Hawks are a halfway safe upset bet over the Sooners in round one coming out of the underrated Atlantic-10.

44. Kentucky (11): The Wildcats were written off for death following the season-ending injury to Patrick Patterson, but the play of sophomore Perry Stevenson and seniors Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley have kept them afloat.

45. Villanova (12): I like Villanova as a difficult number 12 seed for Clemson. If you throw out their five-game losing streak in late January and early February, this team was very consistent and has proven it can beat Pittsburgh and Connecticut. Look for a big game from Scottie Reynolds against Clemson.

The Thanks For Participating Rest

46. Siena (13): Siena beat Stanford, but that was when the Cardinals were without Brook Lopez. They lost by 44 at Memphis and six at Cornell, but they were impressive in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament, especially with their win over Jason Thompson’s Rider team.

47. George Mason (12): 2006 isn'tt that long ago, but it actually is when considering their best victory came at Kansas State all the way back in November.

48. Georgia (14): Dennis Felton saved his job by winning the SEC tournament, but it’s a down year for the SEC, and the Bulldogs (even if they can win four games in three days) are not a very good basketball team.

Sundiata Gaines has been their best player, winning tournament MVP honors and averaging 14.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game.

49. San Diego (13): The Toreros beat Kentucky at Rupp Arena but have lost to the Marshall’s and CSU Baskersfield’s of the world. That’s not to discount, however, their convincing victories of St. Mary’s and Gonzaga in the conference tournament.

50. Western Kentucky (12): Courtney Lee has had a great collegiate career and in drawing a five seed, they could play with (Drake), but I don’t see them being this year’s designated upset 12. To give the Hilltoppers credit, they have played their best basketball against top competition (Gonzaga and Tennessee).

51. Temple (12): Frank Dunphy has done a tremendous job replacing the legendary John Chaney.

52. Boise State (14): A lot has changed in Boise since they last reached the tournament back in 1994. The Fiesta Bowl happened, and the city is certifiably a football town. As exciting and improbable as their victory over Oklahoma, the WAC tournament title was filled with drama as well when they beat New Mexiao State 107-102 in triple-overtime.

In the axis the world spins on is irony department: Boise State’s opponent in 1994 was also Louisville.

Senior Reggie Larry has averaged 19.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game this season.

53. Winthrop (13): Winthrop seemingly lands on brackets every March as they’ve reached the tournament in eight out of the past 10 seasons. Randy Peele’s team allows a FG% of 39.1 percent this season.

54. Oral Roberts (13): Oral Roberts meets a Pittsburgh team that is playing their basketball of the season.

55. Cal State Fullerton (14): This is the Titans’ first NCAA tournament appearance since 1978, and Bob Burton’s team gets to play in Omaha, where the school has had so much success on the baseball field.

56. Cornell (14): Louis Dale is an excellent point guard, but the Big Red will need a perfect game from big man Jeff Foote against the Lopez twins. If Cornell can hit from 3-point territory (they shoot 41.4%), it can become a long night for the Cardinal.

Coincidentally, Cornell is the only team in the field with a higher high school GPA than Stanford.

57. American (15): This is the first time in the program’s 41-year history that they have made the NCAA tournament. Jeff Jones has led the Eagles to the conference championship for four years running and finally got over the hump this year.

58. Austin Peay (15): Drake Reed leads the team in scoring with 14.6 per game, and the Governors come into their matchup against Texas as winners of 11 of their past 12 games but are decidedly untested.

59. Belmont (15): The Bruins lost by 41 points when they played at Xavier and also lost to fellow number 15 seed Austin Peay two times, but they beat Alabama 85-83 and also Cincinnati 86-75.

60. UMBC (15) It took me a few minutes to find out UMBC=University of Maryland-Baltimore County. The Retrievers are led by Ray Barbosa, Jay Greene, and Darryl Proctor.

61. Portland State (16): Perhaps Jerry Glanville and Blazer-mania has carried over to PSU’s basketball club? They are 23-9 and led by Jeremiah Dominguez, who is listed at 5-6.

62. Mississippi Valley State (16): Jerry Rice’s alma mater is led by Carl Lucas and Larry Cox and has a 17-15 record.

63. UT-Arlington (16): The Mavericks haven’t reached the tournament in 49 years.

64. Coppin State (16 Play-In)/Mt. St. Mary’s (16 Play-In): I’ve always thoroughly disliked the play-in game. For small schools like Coppin State and Mt. St. Mary’s, there isn’t much of a reward to play one another as the beauty of their entry in the tournament should be in playing the UCLA’s and UNC’s.

If they want to do a play-in game, they should have it come down to the final two teams in for that 12th seed.

- Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM.com

Via Christopher Reina/RealGM

NCAA Basketball

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