Prospects and trade discussion

[Quake Griffin]

is he throwing across his body ala Max Scherzer?

[Neddy]

is he throwing across his body ala Max Scherzer?

well, sorta exact opposite.

Max has rather a fast and compact leg extension followed by a violent torq and long follow through where he seems to throw across his body and spins out upon landing, also has an upper body rotation when releasing the ball.

this kid has little to no leg extension, no vertical shift of weight, staying tall relatively the entire time of delivery, so no power is coming from his legs. his follow through is lazy, and he slings his arm which can have an injury concern, and little upper body rotation. he seems totally a raw prospect who if coached properly, could be something. but man watch where his pitches are landing and its all over the place.

[Ranma]

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[Neddy]

I would not mind getting Yadier as long as we coach him up right.

and BTW i was too caught up watching the video of Alvarez throwing so i missed it at first, but Olivera has a very well balanced swing even though I think his bat speed isn't elite. what a great balanced stands and natural swing that generates a smooth bat through the hitting zone. other than the speed difference, it reminded me of Ken Griffey Jr. I know, I know, Hector doesn't pickup his lead foot off the dirt like Jr, but that swing is uncanny. he doesn't turn up his back hand like Tony Gwynn used to, he doesn't have all the extra timing mechanism Bonds or Sheffield had along with those heavy swings. this guy is very simple yet elegant, transfers his weight forward very easily and naturally, and his bat just travels through the strike zone constantly every time.

my concern would be that with a guy who is older and have durability concerns who's bat speed is already average at best, (frankly i think its already slightly behind average) he has a high bust potential if he can't stay on the field enough to get acclimated to MLB soon enough. his physical condition could let him down before he can get used to US baseball.

having said that, there is a right price for everything. if he can be signed relatively short term for moderate to a steep cost, i think it is worth the risk. a high cost for a long term deal should be avoided.

[Neddy]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best ... ff-season/

interesting read.

[Quake Griffin]

You guys seen any tape on Moncada?

are you impressed with his fielding?


obviously loving the fangraphs article

[Ranma]

Yoan Moncada

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Yadier Alvarez

Watch on YouTube

Hector Olivera

Watch on YouTube

[Ranma]

Nick Cafardo, Boston Globe (2/8/15)

You can’t find one GM, either involved or not involved in obtaining him, who doesn’t rave about Yoan Moncada, and who wouldn’t take him No. 1 in the draft if he were an American amateur player.

Moncada is a 19-year-old Cuban middle infielder with great arm strength, great range at second base in particular (though he also can play shortstop and third), great bat speed, and very good speed.

Most teams involved can’t talk about Moncada on the record because he’s a free agent, but one National League talent evaluator pointed out, “He could be the next Robinson Cano/Chase Utley, but more Cano. That’s the kind of potential bat we’re talking about.”
...

One GM thinks Moncada would need some minor league seasoning before coming to the big leagues. How much time remains to be seen. And the feeling is that while Moncada is a natural second baseman, he’d be able to handle shortstop or third base.
...

“He may be better than [Yasiel] Puig or [Jose] Abreu or [Yoenis] Cespedes or [Jorge] Soler,” said one National League GM. “Certainly there’s more upside, and the fact he’s a middle infielder who can hit for average and power makes him a much sought-after commodity. There isn’t anyone who compares to him in the draft or a player of his age around the league. He’s got every tool.”

Yankees GM Brian Cashman believes in his team

[Neddy]

thanks for the videos, Ranma. just finished all 3 videos on Moncada. came away seeing some similar things then a few different things than that narrator of the last video about him.

first, what i agree with the narrator. the bat speed. that really jumped out at me. a switch hitter with an elite bat speed. then his raw speed. that bunt was terrible to the third base, it was hit hard, fast and right at the third baseman and yet he had no play with Joan's foot speed. it looked as he tweaked something at the end of that run, tho.

now some things that was not discussed that i felt stood out.

his bat control. on that first video, he butchers the contact of the first hit. but between the power, bat speed, and his control of the bat, he makes a violent, off the target contact and thanks to his foot speed as well as high bounces, he makes it to first safely with room to spare. but it was the second hit(the third at bat) of the first video that really made his bat control a thing of a beauty. that is a classic "take what they give you" approach and also understanding the situation of a hit and run(it technically is run and hit but it's just semantics) a runner breaks for second, the pitch is down and away, clearly diving below his knees, and his eyes are never fooled, tracking the pitch it's entire way, takes an easy swing to the opposite field as you are supposed to, not over powering or trying to pull, then drops a nice single which allows the baserunner to move over to third. impressive.

now for his size... not a prototypical infielder body type. as he ages there will be a need to put him somewhere his body doesn't have to take a toll. maybe a second baseman initially, possibly move to third if and only if Corey is our SS of the future (which i strongly doubt) but may have to take over the 1B or even consider LF in the future. didn't see him defend or throw on any of those videos so all i can go about his his obvious physique and what appears to be even a young body stretching or grabbing his knees or thigh after quick burst of a run to the first base.

did not see him make a dead on contact while exerting his power. his quick bat speed is allowing him to watch the ball longer than others, and his strong wrist and hand eye coordination he can adjust his swing on the fly and make a contact, and on slow pitches he sits on them as shown, but i did not see a single at bat where he hit the ball so hard that the ball exploded off the sweet spot of the bat.
I want to see his power, not hear about his power. obviously i can see his raw power from his strength, but from a mechanical stand point to add to his body, raw talent, and bat speed all put into one motion. other than that opposite field hit, everything else i saw were slightly off the sweet spot. very small sample size Im sure, but would have liked to have seen it.

now off to the next video...

[Neddy]

ok, thanks to Ranma for the new videos on Yadier and my second take on him...

the first video of him on the mound, in a game situation is a different guy than the second video and the original video i saw from another post of him throwing off of a flat ground.

on the mound, in a game situation, his control is immensely better. his pitching motion is easy, but does not look lazy as he did on bullpen session or that scouting session without a mound. from the catcher's POV, his similarity to Ramon Martinez is uncanny. it was as if i was a kid again and watching young Ramon. his pithing mechanics are practically the same. good velocity on his fastballs. not overpowering fastball, but heavy fastball. considering his age, he could even tack on a few more mph. I like his slider. not a weapon against lefties yet but good action on the ball, late break and tails off away and down naturally, from right handed batters. good eventual strike out pitch against RH hitters not sure if its there yet. his change up is pretty damn good. he can't control his curve yet, at least from that short video. his best pitch combo right now seems his fastball/changeup but his slider has a ton of potential. curve was effective against the level of hitters he was pitching against, but again, with this small sample size it looked a lost cause to me. don't like his defense despite how well he positions himself after each pitch. he lands on the same spot after every pitch and for every type of pitch. thats important as he grows as a player to keep the deception going against higher level hitters who will pickup any pitch tipping from any slight deviation of his motions.

[Neddy]

I still come away most impressed with Hector Olivera. probably because he is much more polished player at much older age.

his swing is compact, no wasted motion, still love his swing. I don't think it is as close to Ken Griffey's now having watched more swings of him, maybe a dash of Adrian Beltre in that swing but he doesn't force it like Adrian. Beltre's swing is more like a shotgun blast... Hector's is very fluid, more like a sniper? hard to explain it but Olivera is not a stiff swinger like Eric Karros or Mike Piazza, not as animated or have a unique timing motion like Sheffield, it is just very smooth and a text book swing. I can't stop praising how great his swing looks.

having said that, there is no tape on him in a game situation. everything i have seen of Hector are in a batting cage, and against batting practice pitches. all of his balls are jumping off the bat, to the center or pull to the left field. i didn't see a single hit going opposite direction. remember, even Billy Ashley would have been a hall of famer if batting cage swing was all that counted.

out of the three, I think Hector can step in today and make a major league roster. the other two will take some seasoning down in the minors. Joan obviously is the one who is hailed as the "can't miss" prospect and i agree. I didn't like Yadier initially but i changed my mind on him. I don't think he is the second coming of Ramon, but boy his mechanics and his look on the mound... wow. it's a carbon copy from appearance stand point.

oh boy i can't wait for baseball. I am already trying to convince my wife to travel on weekend away games to try different cities and stadiums this year. let's see how that goes.

[Neddy]

I think I will be able to make it to the Camelback Ranch by the last weekend of March. hopefully wifey comes through and makes it happen ( it should be tragically obvious who makes all financial decisions in this household ) its gonna be against the Gnats, Aholes, then a split squad games on Sunday. I can't wait!

[Quake Griffin]

Joc n Seager showed up today.
awesome.

Kershaw said he's had some success throwing to AJ but sorta punted on the personal catcher question with, "that's Donnie's call." Good punt. It is Donnie's call. Now be quiet an throw to YG 400!

Ned, I know you like personal catchers. I do not. I want Grandal getting the larger share of the reps over AJ Ellis. 70-30 to start at minimum…I'd like 80-20 tbh.
Ellis can earn a better share good split if he plays his ass off.

[Quake Griffin]

J.P. Hoornstra ✔ @jphoornstra
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Greinke did say he's open to negotiating a contract extension before the season ends, but team hasn't talked to him about it yet.
11:21 AM - 19 Feb 2015


looks like he just wanted to see what Lester and Scherzer got.
He's willing to talk extensions and it's **** FEBRUARY. Get this thing done.

[Neddy]

Joc n Seager showed up today.
awesome.

Kershaw said he's had some success throwing to AJ but sorta punted on the personal catcher question with, "that's Donnie's call." Good punt. It is Donnie's call. Now be quiet an throw to YG 400!

Ned, I know you like personal catchers. I do not. I want Grandal getting the larger share of the reps over AJ Ellis. 70-30 to start at minimum…I'd like 80-20 tbh.
Ellis can earn a better share good split if he plays his ass off.

Im pretty sure it will be 80-20 anyway.

AJ catches Kershaw

Grandal catches everybody else.

the reason why i like it is simply that it gives an automatic off day for your everyday catcher, so he gets at least 1 day off every week to keep him fresh.
your best pitcher or your most fickle pitcher gets to have a full time mate who can only focus his game plan around just one pitcher, according to his strength, weakness, tendencies when in a pinch, so on and so forth. of course having a better bat in the lineup in a short series is important, but not if that pitcher who prefers his personal catcher is named Kershaw. his ERA, FIP, WHIP is just that much better than any other that taking away 30% of offense out of your 1/9th of the lineup (which impacts what, 1/27th or so?) isn't going to make a difference whereas the comfort level of that pitcher with that particular catcher in a short series can be a determining factor when in a pinch and making the correct pitch selections (which hasn't quite worked out for Kershaw and AJ in playoffs, but going from handling the entire pitching staff to just one, can make the difference)

if we don't make it far or Donnie chooses to use Grandal with Kershaw and Clayton shows a great result, AJ is done in dodger blue so it is going to either payoff big time or be just a one year experiment anyhow.

[Star-Lord]

Me want Moncada. Me want Moncada bad. The things that separate 18 and 19 year old kids are the physical tools, and this kid looks like a total specimen. When looking at what the Dodgers have done with Yasiel in such short order, it's hard not to get excited about the idea of seeing Moncada playing somewhere in the infield at Chavez come 2016. And if Friedman and Co. decide to pull the trigger on that deal, they might as well go for broke and try to swoop up Olivera, Alvarez, and hell, might as well snatch up Yasiel's boy Jorge Hernandez (I really, REALLY want to see some video of this guy now) while they're at it. It's not like they'll accrue more years of forced inactivity on the international market, if such silly rules are even still in place by this time in 2016.

I'm all giddy with spring training fever. It's the time of year where stuff like this gets written, and I get genuinely excited:

http://www.truebluela.com/2015/2/19/8072867/spring-training-notes-dodgers

Hyun-jin Ryu has been in Arizona since January, trying to get a head start on 2015, said he is in better shape physically than in his first two spring trainings with the Dodgers. Ryu, who threw bullpen sessions and worked out with the LG Twins for the last month, reiterated Thursday that his goal was to pitch 200 innings in 2015, after injuries limited him to 152 frames last year.

[Neddy]

Me want Moncada. Me want Moncada bad. The things that separate 18 and 19 year old kids are the physical tools, and this kid looks like a total specimen. When looking at what the Dodgers have done with Yasiel in such short order, it's hard not to get excited about the idea of seeing Moncada playing somewhere in the infield at Chavez come 2016. And if Friedman and Co. decide to pull the trigger on that deal, they might as well go for broke and try to swoop up Olivera, Alvarez, and hell, might as well snatch up Yasiel's boy Jorge Hernandez (I really, REALLY want to see some video of this guy now) while they're at it. It's not like they'll accrue more years of forced inactivity on the international market, if such silly rules are even still in place by this time in 2016.

I'm all giddy with spring training fever. It's the time of year where stuff like this gets written, and I get genuinely excited:

http://www.truebluela.com/2015/2/19/8072867/spring-training-notes-dodgers

Hyun-jin Ryu has been in Arizona since January, trying to get a head start on 2015, said he is in better shape physically than in his first two spring trainings with the Dodgers. Ryu, who threw bullpen sessions and worked out with the LG Twins for the last month, reiterated Thursday that his goal was to pitch 200 innings in 2015, after injuries limited him to 152 frames last year.

with Olivera's age, experience, and recent injury history, I think the best spot for him with us maybe as a professional full time pinch hitter and an occasional utility infielder. problem is, we have already signed Turner and Barney for those roles. I like Barney's defense at SS better than the other options. perhaps we can simply stash him in AAA until there is a DL stint for Kendrick.

I like Alvarez now. the more i find his videos or watch the same ones over and over, I think the kid has what it takes to be a major leaguer and is not far off at all. because our rotation and the prospects are too lefty heavy, I would like to add some right handed top prospects in the mix and this kid just maybe it.

as for Ryu's comment you posted... I watched his progress through out the winter and he has gained a lot of weight. him talking about joining LG twins camp early really wasn't about him getting in shape per say, but more customary for the cultural service since so many south koreans are watching every move of our fatboy and LG just happend to be around near. knowing how terrible LG twins has been, it must have been a decent PR move for them too to have Ryu involved and be talked about back home. having said that, I do like Ryu's poise and him being fat is actually what is natural for him anyway. his nickname was "ryu-ttoong" which translates into Ryu the fatso. lol

as for your alleged spring training fever, I hear ya, I got one bad myself.

[Star-Lord]

Oh, I learned my lesson with the "Ryu's going to be skinny this year!" narrative from last year's spring training. I know it's not true, but I can't help it. Spring is around the corner and somehow Ryu will be skinny by opening day despite spending the winter shooting noodle commercials.

It's pretty tough for me to judge either Alvarez or Hernandez having seen little and none of them respectively. I do trust the farm system though. They can take a kid like Alvarez, with all of his obvious natural ability, and turn him into something special. I actually more young, Dodger era Pedro in him than Ramon. I wonder if he may end up being better off dropping his arm slot to side arm, which could help his control much like it did for Pedro back in the day as well.

[Quake Griffin]

i still don't get the penalties that result if we go after Moncada.

anybody got a short breakdown on them?

[Star-Lord]

It isn't super short, but it's a fantastic breakdown of the entire Moncada situation and what it all means for the Dodgers in the international market: http://dodgersdigest.com/2015/02/16/why-signing-yoan-moncada-makes-sense-for-the-dodgers/

Basically, going for Moncada puts the team in the penalty for the next couple of international signing periods, which limits them to offering only $300,000 maximum to any international prospect.