Dodgers sign kazmir and top pitcher from japan

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/682296774459969537[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DodgerInsider/status/682295861100064768[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/682297895475933184[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/jonweisman/status/682329403213410304[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/682300051545264134[/tweet]

[Quake Griffin]

Initial thoughts in cliffs:

- I like the signing.
- I view him as a quality #3. But even then, my sense of a #3 is warped because 1 and 2 for us has been lights out over the last 2 years.
- I like this better than Iwakuma
- Doesn't cost us a draft pick
- Wonder how worried we are about our left handedness in the rotation aka is Wood as a control arm, a piece for another deal or will we throw out lefties to start the year?

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BrettAnderson35/status/682298933566173185[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/KeepingitEZ/status/682307360392609792[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/AdrianTitan23/status/682320484067864576[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/BMcCarthy32/status/682303984040804352[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/682298025709056000[/tweet]

Dustin Nosler, DodgersDigest.com (12/29/15)

Kazmir was once power fastball/slider guy with a decent changeup. Now, he’s more of a slightly above-average fastball guy with a good changeup and a cut-fastball.



As you can see, his 4-seam fastball usage has fallen considerably in his last eight seasons. His sinker has picked up in that time as well, but he’s not an extreme ground ball pitcher by any means (43.8 percent in 2014 is his career-best).

What has improved most is his command. He was a wild pitcher who struck out a lot of hitters early on. A sexy 9.7 K/9 also came with an ugly 4.1 BB/9. Since coming back in 2013 he owns a more-than acceptable 8.1 K/9 and a good 2.6 BB/9. Whatever he’s doing, it’s working for him. He’s a much better pitcher now than he was early in his career (when he was a thrower).

And if you’re worried about having too many lefties in the rotation, Kazmir has actually posted reverse platoon splits the last two seasons.

2014: .227/.280/.360, .285 wOBA (league-average is .320)
2015: .225/.301/.344, .285 wOBA

In his first season back (2013), he was better against lefties (.226/.251/.321) than righties (.275/.339/.455), but he has shown an ability to be effective against right-handed hitters recently.

Kershaw can get any hitter out, so his splits are moot. Anderson had a higher slugging percentage allowed to righties (thanks to 17 home runs) in 2015, but had a better batting average an on-base percentage against against righties. Even Ryu has been more successful against righties (.247/.290/.353) in his career than lefties (.276/.317/.390). Wood is the pitcher who had the traditional platoon splits — .223/.243/.274 against lefties, .292/.359/.429 against righties — in 2015.

Scott Kazmir Could End Up Being a Bargain If the Dodgers Sign Him

[Ranma]

idnt-h8urteam via DodgersDigest.com comments

The Yankee's intent is to keep Miller, but its only because they don't think anyone will agree to their trade demands. Cashman has been the one who has pushed a Miller deal by calling around looking a potential trading partner and he continues to do so. As of now he still is asking for 2 young controllable SP for Miller.

Yanks are asking for JDL and Holmes

Dodger will (probably, I think) adamantly say no.

LiveFyre Profile Activity Stream

[Quake Griffin]

Scott Kazmir
@scottkazmir19
1h
What a great day to officially be a Dodger! Happy birthday to my lefty idol Sandy Koufax!
View details ·

[Ranma]

Scott Kazmir
@scottkazmir19
1h
What a great day to officially be a Dodger! Happy birthday to my lefty idol Sandy Koufax!
View details ·

[tweet]https://twitter.com/spaikin/status/682210272686112769[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/espn/status/682288813771640833[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DugoutLegends/status/682230264131620870[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MLBGIFs/status/682238054375936001[/tweet]

[Quake Griffin]

Ranma.

are we official here?
awaiting a physical?

lol.
I'd like to not be happy we acquired someone and then find out theyre not coming.
Yea. It's been that kind of offseason.

[Ranma]

Ranma.

are we official here?
awaiting a physical?

lol.
I'd like to not be happy we acquired someone and then find out theyre not coming.
Yea. It's been that kind of offseason.

LOL...it's official. I've updated my first post on the Kazmir signing with a tweet stating that it's official. Plus, Zaidi was on a conference call with the media confirming the official signing.

Bill Shaikin, Los Angeles Times (12/30/15)

Kazmir, who turns 32 next month, went 7-11 with a 3.10 earned-run average for the Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros last season. He ranked fourth in the American League in ERA, behind David Price, Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray.

Scott Kazmir Signs Three-Year Deal with Dodgers


Jon Weisman, DodgersDigest.com (12/30/15)

Over the past two seasons, right-handed batters have a .643 OPS against Kazmir. That’s the seventh-best figure in baseball for lefties, just ahead of Madison Bumgarner. (Clayton Kershaw, not surprisingly, is No. 1, while Alex Wood and Brett Anderson are in the top 15.)

“Kaz is a guy who’s got a very balanced split,” Dodger general manager Farhan Zaidi said in a conference call with reporters today, shortly after the Dodgers announced the acquisition of the soon-to-be 32-year-old. “His best pitch is his changeup, which really neutralizes righties. He’s not a lefty in the conventional sense.”
...

“He was really a fastball-breaking guy in the Tampa days,” Zaidi said. “In Oakland, he really evolved into a fastball-changeup guy. His changeup is one of the best in baseball. I think when pitchers have that type of athleticism, that ability to adapt as pitchers … those guys tend to be more successful.”
...

Zaidi acknowledged that after the 2016 season, Kazmir can opt out of his contract — a clause that isn’t new but seems increasingly prevalent of late. It’s a negotiating tool to help close a deal, but one in this case that dovetails nicely with the expected ascendancy of the Dodgers’ top minor-league pitching. In addition, the Dodgers would have the potential of getting draft-pick compensation if Kazmir signs elsewhere.

Dodgers Are All Right with Lefty Kazmir

[Quake Griffin]

why an opt out clause after one year though?

yuck

[Neddy]

Initial thoughts in cliffs:

- I like the signing.
- I view him as a quality #3. But even then, my sense of a #3 is warped because 1 and 2 for us has been lights out over the last 2 years.
- I like this better than Iwakuma
- Doesn't cost us a draft pick
- Wonder how worried we are about our left handedness in the rotation aka is Wood as a control arm, a piece for another deal or will we throw out lefties to start the year?

of course you should love this signing. if you negate the abberation year of 2015 for Greinke's once in a life time BABIP against and Ryu being hurt, and simply go about all of their 2014 stats, and make the minimum innings qualified at 150 or better, Zach is 15th best starting pitcher in all baseball with 4.4 WAR, followed by Ryu at 20th best with 3.8 WAR. they are then chased after by the likes of Kazmir at 30th overall with 3.2 WAR, and Iwakuma is the last among them at 35th overall with 3.2 WAR.

so unless we believe Zack can somehow sustain his insane .220 BABIP year after year from here on, Ryu is right there with Zack before his injury. the way i see it, our rotation when everyone is healthy, goes from Clayton - Ryu - Kazmir - McCarthy - Anderson - Wood - Bolsinger. if we still get in on Maeda, he would probably slate at our 5th as to lessen his load to give him extra rest whenever possible to save him for the playoffs, as I see him still comparable to Ryu and better than Kazmir when we are in a short series.

do not worry about being too left-handed. that is a myth and perception and not reality. Ryu and Kazmir both give up far more hits to left handed batsman then they do to right handed bats. Wood is your classic lefty who dominates lefty bats and gives up against right handed bats. Clayton dominates both, and two of the remaining 4 pitch better against RHBs. we are gonna be just fine.

[Ranma]

why an opt out clause after one year though?

yuck

I generally hate giving out player opt-outs in MLB contracts except in certain circumstances and, based on what I've heard so far, I actually like what the Dodgers' front office did in this instance. First, unlike most free-agent contracts nowadays where it's typically a safety net for the player with the team taking all the risk without the benefit of trade-offs in the deal, the Dodgers actually seem to have gotten concessions from the negotiations. We not only get him for potentially 3 years where he'll be 34 by the time the contract ends, money was also deferred interest-free to lower the real value of his contract by purportedly $1 million annually.

Second, while there is certainly risk in handing out the opt-out, the downside is fairly minimized with a very good likelihood that Kazmir will exercise that option after 2016 in order to capitalize on the dearth of quality pitching available on the marketplace next winter in addition to trying to secure a long-term contract while he has more of his prime years left instead of doing so at the end of those marketable years. Injury is obviously the wildcard, but that applies to any ball player and he hasn't been an injury-prone player to my recollection. Even in that worst-case scenario, the Dodgers would only be on the hook for 2 more seasons with deferred money. Compare that to Cueto's recently signed deal where the Giants are on the hook for 4 more seasons after his opt-out at a much higher AAV.

Third, this move not only doesn't cost the Dodgers a draft pick but also gives us the opportunity to gain another one for possibly 3 first-rounders in the 2017 MLB Amateur Draft should we provide qualifying offers to both Brett Anderson and Kazmir.

And finally, I've always been a fan of Kazmir's but I have to acknowledge my surprise at how good he's been in recent seasons. He was 4th in the AL in ERA last season and should benefit from playing in the NL. He was also better than both Bumgarner and Hamels in OPS vs. right-handed batters over the past 2 seasons. Plus, outside of Kershaw and Wood, every member of our new all-left-handed starting rotation has pitched better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters and Kershaw is obviously negligible since he dominates against everyone.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/682303974049988609[/tweet]
Eric Stephen, TrueBlueLA.com (12/30/15)

Kazmir will get a $5 million signing bonus, then salaries of $11 million in 2016, $16 million in 2017 and $16 million in 2018. But $8 million of each season will be deferred without interest for three years, such that the left-hander will be paid over six years:

2016: $5 million bonus plus $3 million salary
2017: $8 million
2018: $8 million
2019: $8 million (deferred from 2016)
2020: $8 million (deferred from 2017)
2021: $8 million (deferred from 2018)

With the deferred money, MLB will count the equivalent average annual value as roughly $15 million annually.

Scott Kazmir Contract Includes Opt-Out Clause, Deferred Money

[Neddy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BMcCarthy32/status/682303984040804352[/tweet]

[Neddy]

why an opt out clause after one year though?

yuck

why would you hate this? we need a stop gap for 2017 but we don't need no road block comes 2017.

Kershaw, Ryu, and McCarty will be under contracts.

Wood, Bolsinger, and to a certain extend Wieland and Frias are under control.

Urias and De Leon will be more than ready to join the rotation by then, at least one of them will surely take over with better ceiling than what Kazmir can give us.

and this is without potentially extending Anderson for another single year contract, if he stays healthy for another year and other GMs stay away from him.

then there are Walker Buehler, Grant Holmes, Chris Anderson, and even Zach Lee who may surprise us with a De Leon in 2015 like growth to jump into the 5th and final spot.

we are about to get very crowded comes 2017.

[Ranma]

Jeff Sullivan, FanGraphs.com (12/22/15)

Kazmir has always thrown a changeup. Now, this is a day and age where pitchers are increasingly willing to throw their changeups hard. Maybe that’s anecdotal, but it helped turn Zack Greinke into what he is. Kazmir has gone the other way. Since his debut, he’s had a pretty large velocity gap between his fastball and his change, but recently the gap has grown enormous.

Here’s a table showing Kazmir’s career. There’s average fastball velocity, then average changeup velocity, then the difference between the two. After that, there’s the league-average difference, and finally Kazmir’s difference over the league’s difference, expressed as a percent.


...

Now for some 2015 league context. Here are the starting pitchers with the biggest differences, setting the lowest possible minimum of 0 innings pitched.


...

This is the new stage of Scott Kazmir: pretty good, somewhat durable, with the biggest fastball-changeup gap in the game as far as starters go. That last quality could conceivably allow Kazmir to age better than he might’ve as a fastball/slider guy. The changeup seems the best it’s ever been, and Kazmir got here by slowing it down. That makes him very different from Zack Greinke. Lots of things make him very different from Zack Greinke. Add the changeup thing to the list.

The New Stage of Scott Kazmir

[Neddy]

BTW just wanted to add that with the signing of Kazmir we just added low balling estimate by steamers, another 2.5 WAR and that pushes us to 50.1 WAR total as a team and just 2.3 WAR outside of the projected league leading Cubbies at 52.4 WAR.

for context, even with the signings of Cueto and Samardzija, the Giants are projected at 39.5 WAR as a team
the D-Backs with Greinke is projected at 31.1.

the media and uninformed dodger fans need to stop the hysteria and fearmongering. we don't need no Earl Warrens around here. we already got Trump for that role.

[Ranma]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/THEREAL_DV/status/682301030122532865[/tweet]
Maybe the front office learned from the backlash of the Iwakuma failed physical, but it has been secretive with its dealings, anyway. In any case, it was reported that the Dodgers expressed some level of interest, but the fact that Friedman & Co. were able to keep the agreement under wraps for almost a week shows that an announcement for deals can come about with little to no warning.

We all know that the Dodgers do the legwork in collecting data and laying groundwork for possible deals with plenty of conversations with other teams, so it could just be a matter of pulling the trigger on moves they have queued in the background. Like they've said, one particular move may not have direct connection to another, but all their moves do have some level of connection that likely prompt contingencies.

[Neddy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/THEREAL_DV/status/682301030122532865[/tweet]
Maybe the front office learned from the backlash of the Iwakuma failed physical, but it has been secretive with its dealings, anyway. In any case, it was reported that the Dodgers expressed some level of interest, but the fact that Friedman & Co. were able to keep the agreement under wraps for almost a week shows that an announcement for deals can come about with little to no warning.

We all know that the Dodgers do the legwork in collecting data and laying groundwork for possible deals with plenty of conversations with other teams, so it could just be a matter of pulling the trigger on moves they have queued in the background. Like they've said, one particular move may not have direct connection to another, but all their moves do have some level of connection that likely prompt contingencies.

that would pre-date the signing of Scott to be prior to the visit of Kenta Maeda to the dodger stadium with a photoshopped image of him in dodger uni #15.

does that potentially indicate that we also have Kenta wrapped up and just buying the time to finish all the due diligence before the announcement? if so, I sure hope it isn't at the detriment of the up and comers of 2017 and we do have team-favorable contract regarding potential trades.

whatever the case, it is exciting for 2016. I fully expect Ryu to not only return back to his old form but thrive, Kazmir and Kenta could become a pair of Kurodas, with Anderson, Wood, eventual return of McCarthy, and potential stint of Magic Mike and Joe Wieland, and of course another expected Cy-Young season by Clayton, we are suddenly pitching rich. if we are not selling Montas, it is probably wise to have him try his 'supposedly' the best of the minors fastball-slider combo as a setup man too.

[Quake Griffin]

ok ok ok i see you guys' point.


Wonder why we're deferring payments.
Are we really trying to stay around $200 million for payroll?

[Quake Griffin]

BTW just wanted to add that with the signing of Kazmir we just added low balling estimate by steamers, another 2.5 WAR and that pushes us to 50.1 WAR total as a team and just 2.3 WAR outside of the projected league leading Cubbies at 52.4 WAR.

for context, even with the signings of Cueto and Samardzija, the Giants are projected at 39.5 WAR as a team
the D-Backs with Greinke is projected at 31.1.

the media and uninformed dodger fans need to stop the hysteria and fearmongering. we don't need no Earl Warrens around here. we already got Trump for that role.

Can you link me to where steamer has these WAR projections for teams?

I can't find it.

[Neddy]

BTW just wanted to add that with the signing of Kazmir we just added low balling estimate by steamers, another 2.5 WAR and that pushes us to 50.1 WAR total as a team and just 2.3 WAR outside of the projected league leading Cubbies at 52.4 WAR.

for context, even with the signings of Cueto and Samardzija, the Giants are projected at 39.5 WAR as a team
the D-Backs with Greinke is projected at 31.1.

the media and uninformed dodger fans need to stop the hysteria and fearmongering. we don't need no Earl Warrens around here. we already got Trump for that role.

Can you link me to where steamer has these WAR projections for teams?

I can't find it.

www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

that is before the Kazmir signing, so add whichever the projection of him you find fancy.