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[Ranma]

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[Quake Griffin]

There's life in our front office.

Just keeping score here.
Neddy is big on Maeda and you're not big on Maeda right Ranma?

[Ranma]

Yeah, I'm really not that high on Maeda, but I do think he'll be a nice addition to the staff. I actually like Iwakuma more than him in a vacuum, but the recent comparisons of Mike Leake and Aaron Nola seem to be the consensus. I think he has a nice floor of being a solid contributor with a lowered ceiling as a possible #3 starter as a realistic probability. I'm primarily concerned with his frail build and need to adjust to a major-league pitching routine.

While money shouldn't be a problem, I hope we're not committing too many years to him or paying dollars that are commensurable to established MLB vets. As was noted before, the Dodgers' internal staff is not entirely sold on him either if the source is to be believed.

Having said that, Neddy is not alone in his belief in Maeda. I don't know how legit the numbers are shown below, but as Neddy has also pointed out, he has performed better than Iwakuma and is currently better than Kuroda in Japan having won the Sawamura Award twice, the Cy Young equivalent in NPB.

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[Neddy]

wow our pitching staff just got DEEP in a hurry. my guess on WAR of each pitcher would be something like

Kershaw - around 7.5 to 8.5
Anderson - optimistically around 2.5 to 3.0 if stays healthy, but probably not.
Kazmir - close to 3.0 range.
Ryu - assuming he can start from april and stay healthy, 3.5 to 4.0 range and a comeback player of the year candidate.
Maeda - 3.5 range if stays healthy.

not sure what the order of the rotation will be other than Kershaw at the top, but even with probable injuries and whatnot, we will not have a weak spot in the rotation this season with Wood still available and McCarthy returning at some point. throwing Magic MIke in there too, we now have 8 starters who can give us a chance to win at any given night. come playoffs, Ryu will probably take the mound for game 2. all the rehab and core workout he's been putting away will payoff this year.

looking at the bullpen as of now

Jensen
JP (L)
Hatcher
Wood (L) - as a setup man as Ranma has been suggesting, along with Hatcher and JP
Avilan (L)
Baez
Garcia
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and have Frias, Montas still available if needed. there are other options such as Liberatore, Ravin, and I think Ian Thomas is still with the organization too.

I don't think we are done building up our pen tho, we are going after another big time setup man beihnd Jensen for sure.

[Neddy]

Yeah, I'm really not that high on Maeda, but I do think he'll be a nice addition to the staff. I actually like Iwakuma more than him in a vacuum, but the recent comparisons of Mike Leake and Aaron Nola seem to be the consensus. I think he has a nice floor of being a solid contributor with a lowered ceiling as a possible #3 starter as a realistic probability. I'm primarily concerned with his frail build and need to adjust to a major-league pitching routine.

While money shouldn't be a problem, I hope we're not committing too many years to him or paying dollars that are commensurable to established MLB vets. As was noted before, the Dodgers' internal staff is not entirely sold on him either if the source is to be believed.

Having said that, Neddy is not alone in his belief in Maeda. I don't know how legit the numbers are shown below, but as Neddy has also pointed out, he has performed better than Iwakuma and is currently better than Kuroda in Japan having won the Sawamura Award twice, the Cy Young equivalent in NPB.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NEIFIco/status/682696971451285505[/tweet]

that's how i see it too, come playoffs it's gonna be Kershaw / Ryu / Maeda / McCarthy /Kazmir / Anderson in pecking order.

glad someone else more professional projects Maeda similar to my out of thin air guessing job too when it comes to WAR value

plus, with Maeda's projected WAR added, we are now officially the best team in basball surpassing the Cubs in team total WAR.

[Ranma]

Again, I don't know how reliable or valid NEIFI Analytics is but here are some more optimistic tweets from them just before the Maeda signing. Let's see if other analytics houses have similar numbers.

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[Ranma]

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[Neddy]

There's life in our front office.

Just keeping score here.
Neddy is big on Maeda and you're not big on Maeda right Ranma?

man I am besides myself. when Kazmir having signed on presumably a week before the announcement and Maeda still making a visit on Christmas eve, I thought this was a possiblilty and glad it came true. we probably broke up Greinke's money in half and splitted between Kazmir and Maeda, and we are most likely far from being done building this roster.

just my personal opinion tho, I hope we stay away from Alex Gordon. he is a cheaper version of Hayward but already 32 years old. we already have an outfielder who plays left who's game was largely based on atheticism, speed and defense rather than power... and we all see before our eyes how those guys don't age gracefully. I think Trayce Thompson will be a fine defensive 4th OF and would like to trade Ethier out for something in value, say, an excellent setup man, before he turns 10-5. I agree with Ranma about Carl and gave up ever getting his ass traded out before his deal expires. Carl will be our Vernon Wells. not the good years version but the ugly latter years version.

[Neddy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/682703574522925057[/tweet]

oh man, please no Urias or Seager to Marlins... but I can totally see Alex going to Marlins in a large package involving B+ prospects.

Alex Wood, Zach Lee, Austin Barnes back to the fins, one of Sborz/Strippling/Cotton, and possibly De Leon or Holmes. I do want to hang on to Cotton and De Leon tho. Wood/Barnes/Lee is a good starting point and fills their needs, plus two pitching prospects not named Urias/De Leon/Cotton would be a fair market value as of now for Jose Fernandez. Im sure the Marlins fans would disagree, but he just has not been able to stay healthy. I wonder if the Mets would be willing to part with one of their young guns for the right deal, say we eat 20 million of Ethier's deal and throw in Wood as a replacement starter for them plus a prospect in the A ball level.

anywho, this is getting exciting now. if we do make a deal and say we bring in Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey, we would sport

Kershaw
Fernandez/Harvey
Ryu
'Maeda
Kazmir
Anderson
McCarthy

good damn, talking about going from rags to riches. Im sure LA times will be sucking up to Friedman if this was to happen and forget all the nonsensical bashing of not getting Cole Hamels for Seager and Urias. smfh.

[Ranma]

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[Neddy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/682708131768434692[/tweet]

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

I guess those in the Dodgers' front office who are high on Maeda are really high on him. Yikes!

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[Neddy]

just to brainstorm, we have a ton of multi-year deals and we still do not want to block at least Urias come 2017, so to minimize contracts, Kershaw, McCarthy, and Maeda are probably not going anywhere, Kershaw because he is Kershaw, McCarthy because he has no value being injured and injury prone, and old and expensive. Maeda just got signed on, he isn't going anywhere. Kazmir is on a one year deal essentially, so no. I can't see anyone picking up Anderson if they want to build for future as a small market team even if we pickup the tab on his entire salary, so no.

does this mean Ryu is also another potential trade asset? he is on a team friendly deal and still young enough to be a cornerstone of a small market team. say, Ryu + Wood + Barnes as the main package is possible, althugh I would absolutely hate sending Ryu out of LA.

just thinking out loud here.

[Neddy]

I guess those in the Dodgers' front office who are high on Maeda are really high on him. Yikes!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/DfineNrmLC/status/682697282614091776[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DfineNrmLC/status/682701521373499392[/tweet]

8 years????????? I was high on him but not for 8 years!!!!! the money better be around 10 to 15 mil per year range tops. hopefully it's more like 20 million posting fee plus 85 mil for 7 years with 1 option year plus an opt out clause after the first 3 years.

8 years? really tho????

[Neddy]

checked out some NPB news outlet and it states dodgers had made it known to the Maeda's camp that they were willing to spend up to 100 million dollars for his services. judging by the posting fee being 20, I sure hope its a 8 year deal for 80 mill with some sort of an option year or two built in.

[Ranma]

checked out some NPB news outlet and it states dodgers had made it known to the Maeda's camp that they were willing to spend up to 100 million dollars for his services. judging by the posting fee being 20, I sure hope its a 8 year deal for 80 mill with some sort of an option year or two built in.

Thanks for relaying those reports, Neddy. I'm trying not to panic so I want to wait until the full details come out, but I hope your estimation more or less proves true. In addition to my concerns about his body type and need for acclimatization, he'll be 36 at the end of an 8-year deal and the maximum effort for his delivery illustrated in the video below has me even more worried about how he'll be able to hold up, not only through the course of a regular and post season, but also through his MLB career.

I have trust in the front office and our scouts, but this seems counter-intuitive to me and there is supposedly internal disagreement within the organization in assessing Maeda's talent. I still disagree with trading Dee Gordon and that was another move not all our scouts and front office personnel agreed upon. I like the idea of having him in our rotation, but quite frankly, this scares me.

Previously, I advocated for a 5-year offer with an AAV of $8 million in addition to the $20 million posting fee for a total expenditure of $60 million, but if it has to be for 8 years instead, your proposed $10 million AAV is fairly close to my proposal so I hope the purported incentives factor into things where the AAV is pushed from somewhere around $8 million to $10 million based on reaching performance milestones. In addition, I hope there are team options included in the deal to minimize the risk of such a long-term commitment.

[Neddy]

thanks for posting that video! yeah he is fairly diminitive in statue, and yes the history of Japanese pitchers does indicate they are injury prone, but I am not as worried about his delivery other than his elbow. despite the announcers stating about his "Maximum effort" throwing motion, if you watch him carefully and repeatedly, he does have a rather compact pitching mechanics. Maeda is well known for his intensity, so his facial expression isn't necessarily from him physically exerting himself to his limits, but rather his emotions and his competitive spirits. when i posted his weight at 155, appearently that was quite a few years ago and he is listed at 5-11 and 175 pounds from last year's records. that only puts him at near Pedro's and not too many can be Pedro, and yes his physical limitation would be a legitimate concern, but I also would not feel too uncomfortable of having his contract being too long because of his bodily deteriation. I just hate long term deals for pitchers in general. Japanese athletes are not blessed with size and power as American counterparts do, but they are typically maticulate with their conditioning and their body do not age as quickly as our ball players do. in fact, the current ace of Hanshin Tigers Randy Messenger just made an annoucement that he would like to retire in Hanshin uniform in next 4 years, and he is 34 years old now. he stated to the Japanese media (excuse me for Randy's probable statement in Englsih that was translated to Japanese for the media outlet, which then was translated back to English for me to read) "I cannot ever picture myself pitching in another uniform, and would like nothing more than to retire as a Hanshin Tiger. it has been an honor to represent this ballclub and although many Japanese ball players do play into their 40's, my body will not allow such"

so yeah potential TJS waiting to happen after 2017, but at worst I think IF his price tag is what he all hope it is, we could afford to use his latter years as Jensen's top flight setup man, a la Kelvin Herrerra or Luke Hochevar to Kenley's Wade-ness.

[Neddy]

according to mlbtraderumors.com, although it is unclear how many years of said 8 years are guaranteed, or what the actual AAV is, it is said to be at minimum 5 years guaranteed and very incentive laden. Im gonna guess it's about 5 years, 40 million base with 3 option years with up to 20 extra for the first 5 years if those incentives are met, such as innings per season, allstar, cy young, etc etc. I feel much better about the deal although it isn't fully disclosed yet.

if he plays to the very highest ability and consistency and meets all those criterias for all or most of the incentives to be paid out, then we may have a bargain of 8 exceptional years of a top 15 pitcher for the next decade at a fraction of the acutal market value. I hope it turns out to be what we hope and wish to be.

40 million for 5 years base, 20 extra for incentives, 4 million per season or some sort of escalating incentives, then 20 per season of team option for the last 3. that would make it 8 years, maximum 120 milllion. if this is so, it would be very team friendly despite what it sounded like initially.

[Neddy]

probably not the most credible, but Naver is reporting Maeda's deal is for 8 years, 80 to 100 million total plus 20 mil of posting fee.

if true, it is 10 mil per year to 12.5 mil per year. that I think is easily palatible in terms of $$$ but I do wish there are some option years.