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Post mortem 2022-23

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JujitsuFlip
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#41 » by JujitsuFlip » Sat Apr 29, 2023 11:51 pm

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:Do we just run it back and attempt to sign some shooters with the MLE?

"They could also try to trade for a forward with the MLE since the new CBA allows it to be used as a trade exception".

I posted this on the GB but if it's true, this wrinkle adds flexibility to the Cavs trying to find their starting SF with the MLE.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/cavaliers-mitchell-next-season-levert-garland-wing-upgrades.html

MLE also going up to $12.2 million, BAE projected at $4.44 million, and Agbaji TPE is $3.91 million... Cavs could get good depth, quick, fast, and in a hurry this summer.

What kind of depth do you think we will get with sub-Osman level contracts? We realistically add one rotation player, possibly get a better situational C than RoLo (Bryant?), and add one roll-the-dice player like Danny Green, Otto Porter, or Yuta Watanabe.

Realistically we are as likely to see internal improvement from Wade or Stevens or even Merrill as we are to land someone with the BAE.
I think hitting on the starting SF with the MLE is most important.

But for the BAE, there will be guys out there wings and bigs, just gotta negotiate the role with em, gotta sell em on the vision.

For the TPE, I've said all along it will be difficult but gotta be a shot in the dark project, like boom or bust.

Then if LeVert won't re-sign, hopefully a S&T can be worked for a return asset of some sort (not necessarily a player).

Last with the 49th pick, gotta go for a NBA ready player so probably a 4 year type guy. Could potentially have an impact.

The avenues are there, it won't be easy but that is why Koby gets paid the big bucks.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#42 » by toooskies » Sun Apr 30, 2023 12:11 am

JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:"They could also try to trade for a forward with the MLE since the new CBA allows it to be used as a trade exception".

I posted this on the GB but if it's true, this wrinkle adds flexibility to the Cavs trying to find their starting SF with the MLE.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/cavaliers-mitchell-next-season-levert-garland-wing-upgrades.html

MLE also going up to $12.2 million, BAE projected at $4.44 million, and Agbaji TPE is $3.91 million... Cavs could get good depth, quick, fast, and in a hurry this summer.

What kind of depth do you think we will get with sub-Osman level contracts? We realistically add one rotation player, possibly get a better situational C than RoLo (Bryant?), and add one roll-the-dice player like Danny Green, Otto Porter, or Yuta Watanabe.

Realistically we are as likely to see internal improvement from Wade or Stevens or even Merrill as we are to land someone with the BAE.
I think hitting on the starting SF with the MLE is most important.

But for the BAE, there will be guys out there wings and bigs, just gotta negotiate the role with em, gotta sell em on the vision.

For the TPE, I've said all along it will be difficult but gotta be a shot in the dark project, like boom or bust.

Then if LeVert won't re-sign, hopefully a S&T can be worked for a return asset of some sort (not necessarily a player).

Last with the 49th pick, gotta go for a NBA ready player so probably a 4 year type guy. Could potentially have an impact.

The avenues are there, it won't be easy but that is why Koby gets paid the big bucks.

What starting SF do you see on the market that's going to sign for the MLE? Seriously. I'd rather go for a solid bench big that can stretch the floor a little than add another guy that's either worse than LeVert at D or worse than Okoro at 3s.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#43 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:31 am

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:What kind of depth do you think we will get with sub-Osman level contracts? We realistically add one rotation player, possibly get a better situational C than RoLo (Bryant?), and add one roll-the-dice player like Danny Green, Otto Porter, or Yuta Watanabe.

Realistically we are as likely to see internal improvement from Wade or Stevens or even Merrill as we are to land someone with the BAE.
I think hitting on the starting SF with the MLE is most important.

But for the BAE, there will be guys out there wings and bigs, just gotta negotiate the role with em, gotta sell em on the vision.

For the TPE, I've said all along it will be difficult but gotta be a shot in the dark project, like boom or bust.

Then if LeVert won't re-sign, hopefully a S&T can be worked for a return asset of some sort (not necessarily a player).

Last with the 49th pick, gotta go for a NBA ready player so probably a 4 year type guy. Could potentially have an impact.

The avenues are there, it won't be easy but that is why Koby gets paid the big bucks.

What starting SF do you see on the market that's going to sign for the MLE? Seriously. I'd rather go for a solid bench big that can stretch the floor a little than add another guy that's either worse than LeVert at D or worse than Okoro at 3s.

Strus would be perfect, T Ross or Lonnie Walker would be good fits, long shot but Dillon Brooks, since he just beat us I doubt it but Josh Hart, not that I'm a fan but Crowder probably would, Gary Trent might be talked into it, Divencenzo would get a raise, Josh Richardson if it were his Heat days, it would be an overpay for Warren, Craig, or Ingles, Okogie but he's short, Barton stays hurt, idk if he's a starter but Jalen McDaniels. Then if we were to trade the MLE could get 1 of Burks, Royce O'Neal, Bullock, or Batum.

Spending the MLE on a back-up big is tough bc they aren't gonna lure Brook Lopez away, maybe Naz Reid but $12.2 million seems like an overpay, Saric or Lyles ya might be able to talk them into the BAE bc $12.2 mil is for sure an overpay for either of them, Gabriel but he is a prime BAE candidate, outside of Wood I don't see anyone else who fits the bill.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#44 » by toooskies » Sun Apr 30, 2023 4:23 am

JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:I think hitting on the starting SF with the MLE is most important.

But for the BAE, there will be guys out there wings and bigs, just gotta negotiate the role with em, gotta sell em on the vision.

For the TPE, I've said all along it will be difficult but gotta be a shot in the dark project, like boom or bust.

Then if LeVert won't re-sign, hopefully a S&T can be worked for a return asset of some sort (not necessarily a player).

Last with the 49th pick, gotta go for a NBA ready player so probably a 4 year type guy. Could potentially have an impact.

The avenues are there, it won't be easy but that is why Koby gets paid the big bucks.

What starting SF do you see on the market that's going to sign for the MLE? Seriously. I'd rather go for a solid bench big that can stretch the floor a little than add another guy that's either worse than LeVert at D or worse than Okoro at 3s.

Strus would be perfect, T Ross or Lonnie Walker would be good fits, long shot but Dillon Brooks, since he just beat us I doubt it but Josh Hart, not that I'm a fan but Crowder probably would, Gary Trent might be talked into it, Divencenzo would get a raise, Josh Richardson if it were his Heat days, it would be an overpay for Warren, Craig, or Ingles, Okogie but he's short, Barton stays hurt, idk if he's a starter but Jalen McDaniels. Then if we were to trade the MLE could get 1 of Burks, Royce O'Neal, Bullock, or Batum.

Spending the MLE on a back-up big is tough bc they aren't gonna lure Brook Lopez away, maybe Naz Reid but $12.2 million seems like an overpay, Saric or Lyles ya might be able to talk them into the BAE bc $12.2 mil is for sure an overpay for either of them, Gabriel but he is a prime BAE candidate, outside of Wood I don't see anyone else who fits the bill.

Strus is an option but may get offered more by the Heat. Everyone else you listed is either not getting paid more than the MLE or isn't starting over Okoro/LeVert.

To use the MLE as an exception, we need to return something of value. I don't see us doing making that happen for those players.

Naz Reid is my ideal offseason target and I'd give him the full MLE. Good enough to play major minutes and has some semblance of an outside shot. I'd pay Lyles $7m to pay above tax MLE teams and have an over-BAE amount left for a second guy, the BAE for a third guy.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#45 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Apr 30, 2023 4:49 am

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:What starting SF do you see on the market that's going to sign for the MLE? Seriously. I'd rather go for a solid bench big that can stretch the floor a little than add another guy that's either worse than LeVert at D or worse than Okoro at 3s.

Strus would be perfect, T Ross or Lonnie Walker would be good fits, long shot but Dillon Brooks, since he just beat us I doubt it but Josh Hart, not that I'm a fan but Crowder probably would, Gary Trent might be talked into it, Divencenzo would get a raise, Josh Richardson if it were his Heat days, it would be an overpay for Warren, Craig, or Ingles, Okogie but he's short, Barton stays hurt, idk if he's a starter but Jalen McDaniels. Then if we were to trade the MLE could get 1 of Burks, Royce O'Neal, Bullock, or Batum.

Spending the MLE on a back-up big is tough bc they aren't gonna lure Brook Lopez away, maybe Naz Reid but $12.2 million seems like an overpay, Saric or Lyles ya might be able to talk them into the BAE bc $12.2 mil is for sure an overpay for either of them, Gabriel but he is a prime BAE candidate, outside of Wood I don't see anyone else who fits the bill.

Strus is an option but may get offered more by the Heat. Everyone else you listed is either not getting paid more than the MLE or isn't starting over Okoro/LeVert.

To use the MLE as an exception, we need to return something of value. I don't see us doing making that happen for those players.

Naz Reid is my ideal offseason target and I'd give him the full MLE. Good enough to play major minutes and has some semblance of an outside shot. I'd pay Lyles $7m to pay above tax MLE teams and have an over-BAE amount left for a second guy, the BAE for a third guy.
I do not believe with certainty the broad stroke that those guys would have to come off the bench. However, even if they did, it's still depth, might even be able to get a couple wings with the MLE split and then grab a big with the BAE.

Point is, JB needs to be right next to Koby with every transaction this summer and we can be the team that is 10 guys deep. Obviously JB will only play 6 or 7 of them, even in the regular season, it's his "style" but at least he can hand pick the guys he wants, so no more excuses.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#46 » by JonFromVA » Sun Apr 30, 2023 6:34 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:Strus would be perfect, T Ross or Lonnie Walker would be good fits, long shot but Dillon Brooks, since he just beat us I doubt it but Josh Hart, not that I'm a fan but Crowder probably would, Gary Trent might be talked into it, Divencenzo would get a raise, Josh Richardson if it were his Heat days, it would be an overpay for Warren, Craig, or Ingles, Okogie but he's short, Barton stays hurt, idk if he's a starter but Jalen McDaniels. Then if we were to trade the MLE could get 1 of Burks, Royce O'Neal, Bullock, or Batum.

Spending the MLE on a back-up big is tough bc they aren't gonna lure Brook Lopez away, maybe Naz Reid but $12.2 million seems like an overpay, Saric or Lyles ya might be able to talk them into the BAE bc $12.2 mil is for sure an overpay for either of them, Gabriel but he is a prime BAE candidate, outside of Wood I don't see anyone else who fits the bill.

Strus is an option but may get offered more by the Heat. Everyone else you listed is either not getting paid more than the MLE or isn't starting over Okoro/LeVert.

To use the MLE as an exception, we need to return something of value. I don't see us doing making that happen for those players.

Naz Reid is my ideal offseason target and I'd give him the full MLE. Good enough to play major minutes and has some semblance of an outside shot. I'd pay Lyles $7m to pay above tax MLE teams and have an over-BAE amount left for a second guy, the BAE for a third guy.
I do not believe with certainty the broad stroke that those guys would have to come off the bench. However, even if they did, it's still depth, might even be able to get a couple wings with the MLE split and then grab a big with the BAE.

Point is, JB needs to be right next to Koby with every transaction this summer and we can be the team that is 10 guys deep. Obviously JB will only play 6 or 7 of them, even in the regular season, it's his "style" but at least he can hand pick the guys he wants, so no more excuses.


Alternatively, Altman can pick out players for his next coach because as long as it seems he's doing his job, and JBB continues to come off as stubborn and inflexible ... it will likely be JBB that gets canned if things go South and Koby may have the opportunity to try to find a coach that matches the roster he's built.

I presume Altman actually wants everyone to work together and be on the same page, but I'm not sure that's so much a two-street for JBB and sometimes politics sneaks in to the best ideas/plans.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#47 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Apr 30, 2023 11:56 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:Strus is an option but may get offered more by the Heat. Everyone else you listed is either not getting paid more than the MLE or isn't starting over Okoro/LeVert.

To use the MLE as an exception, we need to return something of value. I don't see us doing making that happen for those players.

Naz Reid is my ideal offseason target and I'd give him the full MLE. Good enough to play major minutes and has some semblance of an outside shot. I'd pay Lyles $7m to pay above tax MLE teams and have an over-BAE amount left for a second guy, the BAE for a third guy.
I do not believe with certainty the broad stroke that those guys would have to come off the bench. However, even if they did, it's still depth, might even be able to get a couple wings with the MLE split and then grab a big with the BAE.

Point is, JB needs to be right next to Koby with every transaction this summer and we can be the team that is 10 guys deep. Obviously JB will only play 6 or 7 of them, even in the regular season, it's his "style" but at least he can hand pick the guys he wants, so no more excuses.


Alternatively, Altman can pick out players for his next coach because as long as it seems he's doing his job, and JBB continues to come off as stubborn and inflexible ... it will likely be JBB that gets canned if things go South and Koby may have the opportunity to try to find a coach that matches the roster he's built.

I presume Altman actually wants everyone to work together and be on the same page, but I'm not sure that's so much a two-street for JBB and sometimes politics sneaks in to the best ideas/plans.

It is pointless to do that, just fire JB now if that is the plan. This coming season is most likely Mitchell's final season in a Cavs uniform, they gotta make the most of it.

If Mitchell won't extend next summer, the Cavs absolutely have to trade him. They can't hope he picks up his PO or that they can re-sign him. Trade him summer of 2024 when he has 1+1 left on is deal. The return will be trash compared to what we gave up, especially if it follows another early playoff exit but ya gotta get something for him. Him walking for nothing in the summer of 2025, cannot be an option.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#48 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 1, 2023 3:32 am

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:I do not believe with certainty the broad stroke that those guys would have to come off the bench. However, even if they did, it's still depth, might even be able to get a couple wings with the MLE split and then grab a big with the BAE.

Point is, JB needs to be right next to Koby with every transaction this summer and we can be the team that is 10 guys deep. Obviously JB will only play 6 or 7 of them, even in the regular season, it's his "style" but at least he can hand pick the guys he wants, so no more excuses.


Alternatively, Altman can pick out players for his next coach because as long as it seems he's doing his job, and JBB continues to come off as stubborn and inflexible ... it will likely be JBB that gets canned if things go South and Koby may have the opportunity to try to find a coach that matches the roster he's built.

I presume Altman actually wants everyone to work together and be on the same page, but I'm not sure that's so much a two-street for JBB and sometimes politics sneaks in to the best ideas/plans.

It is pointless to do that, just fire JB now if that is the plan. This coming season is most likely Mitchell's final season in a Cavs uniform, they gotta make the most of it.

If Mitchell won't extend next summer, the Cavs absolutely have to trade him. They can't hope he picks up his PO or that they can re-sign him. Trade him summer of 2024 when he has 1+1 left on is deal. The return will be trash compared to what we gave up, especially if it follows another early playoff exit but ya gotta get something for him. Him walking for nothing in the summer of 2025, cannot be an option.


We shouldn't completely ignore what we might do with cap space, albeit Evan will minimally have a big cap hold or a new deal kicking in. Just depends how much we have and if there are any players in the class we like who might fall to us.

But yes, it's preferable that the FO and JBB are on the same page and that we try to get something for Mitchell if/when it becomes clear he wants out.

It is a judgement call if Mitchell won't commit ahead of his free-agency. There are some scenarios where I'd let things play out. LeBron didn't walk out on Mobley, Allen, and Garland and for all we know the Knicks may have list interest in him.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#49 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon May 1, 2023 4:44 am

JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Alternatively, Altman can pick out players for his next coach because as long as it seems he's doing his job, and JBB continues to come off as stubborn and inflexible ... it will likely be JBB that gets canned if things go South and Koby may have the opportunity to try to find a coach that matches the roster he's built.

I presume Altman actually wants everyone to work together and be on the same page, but I'm not sure that's so much a two-street for JBB and sometimes politics sneaks in to the best ideas/plans.

It is pointless to do that, just fire JB now if that is the plan. This coming season is most likely Mitchell's final season in a Cavs uniform, they gotta make the most of it.

If Mitchell won't extend next summer, the Cavs absolutely have to trade him. They can't hope he picks up his PO or that they can re-sign him. Trade him summer of 2024 when he has 1+1 left on is deal. The return will be trash compared to what we gave up, especially if it follows another early playoff exit but ya gotta get something for him. Him walking for nothing in the summer of 2025, cannot be an option.


We shouldn't completely ignore what we might do with cap space, albeit Evan will minimally have a big cap hold or a new deal kicking in. Just depends how much we have and if there are any players in the class we like who might fall to us.

But yes, it's preferable that the FO and JBB are on the same page and that we try to get something for Mitchell if/when it becomes clear he wants out.

It is a judgement call if Mitchell won't commit ahead of his free-agency. There are some scenarios where I'd let things play out. LeBron didn't walk out on Mobley, Allen, and Garland and for all we know the Knicks may have list interest in him.

Idc about cap space, CLE is not a destination.

It's not about Mitchell wanting out, if he won't extend, that's the green light to move on, especially if they are eliminated early again next season.

If they trade Mitchell they might as well trade Allen too. The team's future is Garland at 1, Mobley at 5, surrounded by three 3&D wings.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#50 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 1, 2023 2:44 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:It is pointless to do that, just fire JB now if that is the plan. This coming season is most likely Mitchell's final season in a Cavs uniform, they gotta make the most of it.

If Mitchell won't extend next summer, the Cavs absolutely have to trade him. They can't hope he picks up his PO or that they can re-sign him. Trade him summer of 2024 when he has 1+1 left on is deal. The return will be trash compared to what we gave up, especially if it follows another early playoff exit but ya gotta get something for him. Him walking for nothing in the summer of 2025, cannot be an option.


We shouldn't completely ignore what we might do with cap space, albeit Evan will minimally have a big cap hold or a new deal kicking in. Just depends how much we have and if there are any players in the class we like who might fall to us.

But yes, it's preferable that the FO and JBB are on the same page and that we try to get something for Mitchell if/when it becomes clear he wants out.

It is a judgement call if Mitchell won't commit ahead of his free-agency. There are some scenarios where I'd let things play out. LeBron didn't walk out on Mobley, Allen, and Garland and for all we know the Knicks may have list interest in him.

Idc about cap space, CLE is not a destination.

It's not about Mitchell wanting out, if he won't extend, that's the green light to move on, especially if they are eliminated early again next season.

If they trade Mitchell they might as well trade Allen too. The team's future is Garland at 1, Mobley at 5, surrounded by three 3&D wings.


Who other than LeBron has left the team for less money in free-agency (and even in his case, he's also signed with us in free-agency multiple times). The difference? The circumstances, the team we'd built around him, the opportunity to build a super-friends-team and then his desire to be in LA.

We know Mitchell would love to play in NYC and was looking forward to it happening last Summer, but what if neither the Knicks nor the Nets are in position to sign him or simply don't want him?

Circumstances are important, including the possibility that there might be players that would be excited to replace Mitchell in our core of players and willing to signal the Cavs of their interest.

As for Mobley at C, I'll get on board with that when he seems physically ready for it and the data suggests we'd be a better team with him at C. In the meantime, we'll be trying to add 3&d wings, so we will hopefully have better units to look at than say Garland-LeVert-Osman-Love-Mobley who played all of 57 minutes together with a +6 net rating. By comparison, our Okoro starting unit was +8 and our LeVert starting unit was +16.

Jarrett Allen finished with the 2nd best oncourt +/- and net +/- to Garland and here's another fun fact ... our only 2-man group to finish with a positive net rating in the playoffs was Allen-Mobley.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#51 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon May 1, 2023 4:39 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
We shouldn't completely ignore what we might do with cap space, albeit Evan will minimally have a big cap hold or a new deal kicking in. Just depends how much we have and if there are any players in the class we like who might fall to us.

But yes, it's preferable that the FO and JBB are on the same page and that we try to get something for Mitchell if/when it becomes clear he wants out.

It is a judgement call if Mitchell won't commit ahead of his free-agency. There are some scenarios where I'd let things play out. LeBron didn't walk out on Mobley, Allen, and Garland and for all we know the Knicks may have list interest in him.

Idc about cap space, CLE is not a destination.

It's not about Mitchell wanting out, if he won't extend, that's the green light to move on, especially if they are eliminated early again next season.

If they trade Mitchell they might as well trade Allen too. The team's future is Garland at 1, Mobley at 5, surrounded by three 3&D wings.


Who other than LeBron has left the team for less money in free-agency (and even in his case, he's also signed with us in free-agency multiple times). The difference? The circumstances, the team we'd built around him, the opportunity to build a super-friends-team and then his desire to be in LA.

We know Mitchell would love to play in NYC and was looking forward to it happening last Summer, but what if neither the Knicks nor the Nets are in position to sign him or simply don't want him?

Circumstances are important, including the possibility that there might be players that would be excited to replace Mitchell in our core of players and willing to signal the Cavs of their interest.

As for Mobley at C, I'll get on board with that when he seems physically ready for it and the data suggests we'd be a better team with him at C. In the meantime, we'll be trying to add 3&d wings, so we will hopefully have better units to look at than say Garland-LeVert-Osman-Love-Mobley who played all of 57 minutes together with a +6 net rating. By comparison, our Okoro starting unit was +8 and our LeVert starting unit was +16.

Jarrett Allen finished with the 2nd best oncourt +/- and net +/- to Garland and here's another fun fact ... our only 2-man group to finish with a positive net rating in the playoffs was Allen-Mobley.

Off the top of my head? Love, Drummond, JR Smith, TT, Big Z, Jamison, and Shaq... I could research and find more, I'm sure.

+/- is irrelevant when teams lose series 4-1 to lower seeds, sorry.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#52 » by ijspeelman » Mon May 1, 2023 4:58 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:Idc about cap space, CLE is not a destination.

It's not about Mitchell wanting out, if he won't extend, that's the green light to move on, especially if they are eliminated early again next season.

If they trade Mitchell they might as well trade Allen too. The team's future is Garland at 1, Mobley at 5, surrounded by three 3&D wings.


Who other than LeBron has left the team for less money in free-agency (and even in his case, he's also signed with us in free-agency multiple times). The difference? The circumstances, the team we'd built around him, the opportunity to build a super-friends-team and then his desire to be in LA.

We know Mitchell would love to play in NYC and was looking forward to it happening last Summer, but what if neither the Knicks nor the Nets are in position to sign him or simply don't want him?

Circumstances are important, including the possibility that there might be players that would be excited to replace Mitchell in our core of players and willing to signal the Cavs of their interest.

As for Mobley at C, I'll get on board with that when he seems physically ready for it and the data suggests we'd be a better team with him at C. In the meantime, we'll be trying to add 3&d wings, so we will hopefully have better units to look at than say Garland-LeVert-Osman-Love-Mobley who played all of 57 minutes together with a +6 net rating. By comparison, our Okoro starting unit was +8 and our LeVert starting unit was +16.

Jarrett Allen finished with the 2nd best oncourt +/- and net +/- to Garland and here's another fun fact ... our only 2-man group to finish with a positive net rating in the playoffs was Allen-Mobley.

Off the top of my head? Love, Drummond, JR Smith, TT, Big Z, Jamison, and Shaq... I could research and find more, I'm sure.

+/- is irrelevant when teams lose series 4-1 to lower seeds, sorry.


I don't know if that is necessarily true, but a 5 game sample is still small enough where a player's impact or a lineup cannot be directly tied to the +/-.

Just from the eye test, when Allen was without Mobley, it was not great to put it mildly. I think the Allen Mobley pairing was phenomenal on the defensive end and may have made up for their offensive shortcomings in their minutes together, but its hard to tell by just +/- alone.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#53 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 1, 2023 5:25 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:Idc about cap space, CLE is not a destination.

It's not about Mitchell wanting out, if he won't extend, that's the green light to move on, especially if they are eliminated early again next season.

If they trade Mitchell they might as well trade Allen too. The team's future is Garland at 1, Mobley at 5, surrounded by three 3&D wings.


Who other than LeBron has left the team for less money in free-agency (and even in his case, he's also signed with us in free-agency multiple times). The difference? The circumstances, the team we'd built around him, the opportunity to build a super-friends-team and then his desire to be in LA.

We know Mitchell would love to play in NYC and was looking forward to it happening last Summer, but what if neither the Knicks nor the Nets are in position to sign him or simply don't want him?

Circumstances are important, including the possibility that there might be players that would be excited to replace Mitchell in our core of players and willing to signal the Cavs of their interest.

As for Mobley at C, I'll get on board with that when he seems physically ready for it and the data suggests we'd be a better team with him at C. In the meantime, we'll be trying to add 3&d wings, so we will hopefully have better units to look at than say Garland-LeVert-Osman-Love-Mobley who played all of 57 minutes together with a +6 net rating. By comparison, our Okoro starting unit was +8 and our LeVert starting unit was +16.

Jarrett Allen finished with the 2nd best oncourt +/- and net +/- to Garland and here's another fun fact ... our only 2-man group to finish with a positive net rating in the playoffs was Allen-Mobley.

Off the top of my head? Love, Drummond, JR Smith, TT, Big Z, Jamison, and Shaq... I could research and find more, I'm sure.

+/- is irrelevant when teams lose series 4-1 to lower seeds, sorry.


We weren't interested in keeping any of those players, we'd even stopped playing or sent home the first 3 in your list.

IMO, everything is relevant when put in the proper context.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#54 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 1, 2023 5:29 pm

ijspeelman wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Who other than LeBron has left the team for less money in free-agency (and even in his case, he's also signed with us in free-agency multiple times). The difference? The circumstances, the team we'd built around him, the opportunity to build a super-friends-team and then his desire to be in LA.

We know Mitchell would love to play in NYC and was looking forward to it happening last Summer, but what if neither the Knicks nor the Nets are in position to sign him or simply don't want him?

Circumstances are important, including the possibility that there might be players that would be excited to replace Mitchell in our core of players and willing to signal the Cavs of their interest.

As for Mobley at C, I'll get on board with that when he seems physically ready for it and the data suggests we'd be a better team with him at C. In the meantime, we'll be trying to add 3&d wings, so we will hopefully have better units to look at than say Garland-LeVert-Osman-Love-Mobley who played all of 57 minutes together with a +6 net rating. By comparison, our Okoro starting unit was +8 and our LeVert starting unit was +16.

Jarrett Allen finished with the 2nd best oncourt +/- and net +/- to Garland and here's another fun fact ... our only 2-man group to finish with a positive net rating in the playoffs was Allen-Mobley.

Off the top of my head? Love, Drummond, JR Smith, TT, Big Z, Jamison, and Shaq... I could research and find more, I'm sure.

+/- is irrelevant when teams lose series 4-1 to lower seeds, sorry.


I don't know if that is necessarily true, but a 5 game sample is still small enough where a player's impact or a lineup cannot be directly tied to the +/-.

Just from the eye test, when Allen was without Mobley, it was not great to put it mildly. I think the Allen Mobley pairing was phenomenal on the defensive end and may have made up for their offensive shortcomings in their minutes together, but its hard to tell by just +/- alone.


It's statistically unreliable to attempt to predict a future outcome based on a small sample of +/-, but the numbers do tell you how those groupings performed, give or take a huge garbage time swing.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#55 » by ijspeelman » Mon May 1, 2023 6:45 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
ijspeelman wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:Off the top of my head? Love, Drummond, JR Smith, TT, Big Z, Jamison, and Shaq... I could research and find more, I'm sure.

+/- is irrelevant when teams lose series 4-1 to lower seeds, sorry.


I don't know if that is necessarily true, but a 5 game sample is still small enough where a player's impact or a lineup cannot be directly tied to the +/-.

Just from the eye test, when Allen was without Mobley, it was not great to put it mildly. I think the Allen Mobley pairing was phenomenal on the defensive end and may have made up for their offensive shortcomings in their minutes together, but its hard to tell by just +/- alone.


It's statistically unreliable to attempt to predict a future outcome based on a small sample of +/-, but the numbers do tell you how those groupings performed, give or take a huge garbage time swing.


Or shooting luck from one or the other side
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#56 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 1, 2023 7:14 pm

ijspeelman wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
ijspeelman wrote:
I don't know if that is necessarily true, but a 5 game sample is still small enough where a player's impact or a lineup cannot be directly tied to the +/-.

Just from the eye test, when Allen was without Mobley, it was not great to put it mildly. I think the Allen Mobley pairing was phenomenal on the defensive end and may have made up for their offensive shortcomings in their minutes together, but its hard to tell by just +/- alone.


It's statistically unreliable to attempt to predict a future outcome based on a small sample of +/-, but the numbers do tell you how those groupings performed, give or take a huge garbage time swing.


Or shooting luck from one or the other side


:lol:

Still luck (or a lack thereof) is part of what happened. Garbage time should be legitimately separated from other stats because one side has thrown in the towel - the game is basically over - and it only has slightly more legitimacy than performance in shoot-around or practice.

If something worked, it's worth looking in to why it worked and if those conditions can be repeated, trying it again, expanding on it, etc. If something didn't work or at least not as well? Well, maybe you watch it to see if it improves or can be tweaked, but a professional (like a GM) shouldn't be mapping out their future strategy on a hope.

And honestly, it's a lot simpler than all of that. The Cavs need to figure out how they're going to keep a player like Mitchell Robinson from pushing our players around and keep him off the boards. Meanwhile, it's long past time they added some wrinkles to deal with opponents who pack the paint and have decent wings with length they can put on our guards.

It's time to move on from "When trapped: pass it to the other guy". Playoff success is all predicated on being a step-ahead of the opponent, not a step-behind.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#57 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 1, 2023 7:25 pm

Ben has a very good track record, so, I don't doubt this and it fits what happened.

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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#58 » by ijspeelman » Mon May 1, 2023 8:17 pm

JonFromVA wrote:Ben has a very good track record, so, I don't doubt this and it fits what happened.

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I don’t know if this is true or not true, but the whole narrative has flip flopped now that Love is producing in the playoffs.

I think the whole time it was a weird situation and you’d think that if JB and co told Love that he wouldn’t be getting playoff minutes before the deadline, that he would have requested out before it.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#59 » by JonFromVA » Mon May 1, 2023 9:57 pm

ijspeelman wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:Ben has a very good track record, so, I don't doubt this and it fits what happened.

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I don’t know if this is true or not true, but the whole narrative has flip flopped now that Love is producing in the playoffs.

I think the whole time it was a weird situation and you’d think that if JB and co told Love that he wouldn’t be getting playoff minutes before the deadline, that he would have requested out before it.


This and other reports suggest he manipulated the team, so, he could end up where he wanted at the price he wanted (presumably so he can earn another contract somewhere he'd like to be next season).

Otoh, this train of thought presumes we had a trade for Kevin which would have moved his $28M salary and brought something back useful and we didn't pursue it out of respect for him; and I find that somewhat dubious. We'd have to go through each team that pursued him after we released him and see if they could even match his salary in a trade.

For instance, a Jae Crowder deal may have been a possibility (given Phoenix had no intention of playing him), but he's only making $10M. Duncan Robinson is closer at $16.9M, but we would have needed the Heat to throw in more salary to match AND to make it worth our while to take on what had become one of the worst contracts before his playoff revival.

So, if we might have ended up with Robinson and Caleb Martin (and perhaps more?!?) for Love would we still be playing ball? Would the Heat? Presumably Riley found a way to add Love without losing anything from his roster and presumably this was worked out with Kevin around the time he started pouting.

Just so happens that Love's agent also represents a few Heat players, so, it would be barely an inconvenience to communicate intentions.
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Re: Post mortem 2022-23 

Post#60 » by JujitsuFlip » Mon May 1, 2023 11:08 pm

JonFromVA wrote:Ben has a very good track record, so, I don't doubt this and it fits what happened.

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Doesn't matter, Cavs shoulda traded him. They had every chance for 5 to 8 years to trade him and never did. Let him walk for nothing, as is always their MO.

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