free agents and trades and bears oh my!

[Sweezo]

For anyone who thinks the M's aren't doing anything this offseason, prepare to have your minds blown:

Nothing officially announced yet, but according to multiple sources, the Mariners have traded Michael Pineda to the Yankees in a deal that will bring catcher Jesus Montero, one of the best power prospects in baseball, to the Mariners.

Yes, it's a blockbuster.

According to Greg Johns of MLB.com (which I have confirmed), 19-year-old pitcher Jose Campos, a right-hander, will also go to the Yankees, and Hector Noesi, a right-handed pitcher, will come to Seattle. Noesi, 24, appeared in 30 games for the Yankees last year (two starts), and had a 4.47 ERA. Look for him to be a candidate for the back end of the Mariners rotation -- he started in the minors, and was the Yankees' No. 7-ranked prospect by Baseball America heading into last season.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2017234244_big_mariners_trade_is_apparent.html

The response so far from a good portion of the M's fanbase has been less than pleasant. Switching back between KIRO and KJR made that perfectly clear. But I don't see the reason for it:

[1] Pineda was ours, and fans tend to like to hang on to their young prospects that they know. Which might explain why Yankees fans seem less than thrilled about losing Montero. Both players are very good young players with seemingly similar levels of talent.

[2] Adding Fielder was seemingly going nowhere. The longer the negotiations have gone on, the more likely it seems we are simply being used as leverage for deeper pocket teams like Texas and Washington. If we want to add Fielder, and he wants to play here, this deal certainly does not preclude that from happening.

[3] SP is an area of strength for this organization. With Hultzen/Walker/Paxton waiting in the wings, we had the ability to move a young talented SP without it being franchise crippling.

[4] Montero is a RH hitter. But who cares? Sure, Safeco favors lefties, but Montero has shown power to all fields. Our offense was terrible against LHP last year and we needed a RH hitter who can have a positive impact.

[5] I don't know why people see Pineda as a lock to be a stud SP. His slider/fastball combo is dominant, but his change-up most certainly isn't. As good as he was to start the year, once he went around the league and logged more innings he seemed far less effective to me as the season went on. Considering he's previously battled elbow problems, there may have been some good reasons to 'sell high.'

[6] Bringing FA power hitters here has been a huge struggle. SP? Not so much. If trading SP prospect to bring young hitters in is how we get good young hitters, then do it.

Overall, I like the trade. Sure, Campos has a lot of promise, but Noesi doesn't seem to be too far away from being a solid SP himself.

[Sweezo]

Also, according to the M's official Twitter feed, Justin Smoak has lost a good bit of weight while adding muscle, and Guti has added 19 pounds. Part of the problems with the offense last year were definitely related to Smoak's slow decline as the season dragged on, and Guti's reversion to warning track power. The offseason is always littered with stories about players being in the best shape of their lives, but with these two players the idea of a turnaround if they're healthy certainly isn't far-fetched.

[Bay_Areas_Finest]

I love the trade. LOVE IT.

People against the trade are simply homer fans with giant hard ons for Pineda. Sure, the kid has a ton of talent and could be a force in this league, but we have really good young starters in the minors.

We have had a horrible offense for way too long and we just acquired a 19 year old slugger who can rake. Come on now. He will catch for us atleast for now and instantly becomes a force in the lineup.

Damn good trade!

[moocow007]

As a Yankee fan who has watched Montero play quite a bit, yes, you guys are getting one of the best looking young hitting prospects in the game. Montero's power isn't just in the distance that he can hit a ball but also how hard the balls he hits, even grounders, are. There were numerous times during last season when the other teams infielders had problems fielding ground balls hit right to them by Montero, it was that hard. And he also showed that he can not only hit for power but also for average. The slack he's received has absolutely nothing to do with his hitting and has to do with his catching. He's best as a DH or a 1B...though there was talk in previous years about Montero possibly being moved to RF. He's got great size, strength and athletic ability (for a big strong guy like him). I've seen hyped Yankee prospects that probably didn't deserve it who I could care less about being dealt and I've seen Yankee prospects that I really didn't want to see go. Montero is definitely the latter.

[TTown]

i'm a trail blazer fan. a couple years back, i got into a discussion with another diehard blazer. i asked him, "you know, we're always rumored to be making a play for chris paul. what would you package to new orleans for hims?"

he thinks for a minute and says, "anyone but roy or nic batum."

and i, astonished, said, "nic batum?? you wouldn't trade nic batum for chris paul?"

and he says, "no. nic batum is going to be a superstar. future best small forward in the game."

years later, nic batum is not the best small forward in the game. nor is he a superstar. last year, portland traded for a better small forward, sending nic batum to the bench.

the lesson to this long-winded post (and it was mentioned above, making my contribution more or less irrelevant, i guess): fans over-value their own prospects/young players to an INSANE degree. while i'm guilty of this at times, too, i will say this: i liked michael pineda a great deal. but i didn't love him, nor was he untouchable. anyone who screams bloody murder to this right now (i don't live in seattle, so i'm not getting the 'local' response) simply overvalued pineda.

seattle NEEDS offense. that's the understatement of the freaking century. montero has a big bat. pineda has a big arm, but we're not short on big arms, and we're not exactly playing for 2012 anyway. i like the trade. i like it a lot. if montero fails? yeah, i'll curse Z's name, if i ever learn to spell it correctly. but for now, i say well done.

[nuke the whales]

The funny thing is, reading the yankees board, how many over there are saying how could we trade our guy for a pitcher who had one decent season. Could we have gotten more based on the Latos trade? Maybe, but having a right handed hitter with opposite field power (based on what I've been reading) is worth so much more to the M's right now then other teams.

[Sweezo]

As a Yankee fan who has watched Montero play quite a bit, yes, you guys are getting one of the best looking young hitting prospects in the game. Montero's power isn't just in the distance that he can hit a ball but also how hard the balls he hits, even grounders, are. There were numerous times during last season when the other teams infielders had problems fielding ground balls hit right to them by Montero, it was that hard. And he also showed that he can not only hit for power but also for average. The slack he's received has absolutely nothing to do with his hitting and has to do with his catching. He's best as a DH or a 1B...though there was talk in previous years about Montero possibly being moved to RF. He's got great size, strength and athletic ability (for a big strong guy like him). I've seen hyped Yankee prospects that probably didn't deserve it who I could care less about being dealt and I've seen Yankee prospects that I really didn't want to see go. Montero is definitely the latter.

in that same vein, in Pineda you are getting an incredibly talented pitcher. His fastball can and does hit 100. And his slider is simply unhittable.

That package makes him a very tough pitcher to hit. But he needs a third pitch to use against left-handers, and his change up needs a fair amount of work. You'd only see him throw it once or twice a game as a 'show me' pitch more than anything else.

As the game goes on, he doesn't stop challenging hitters with his fastball. And likes to throw it faster/harder as the game goes on. Swung and missed at a 94 mph fastball in the 3rd inning? Well, you're going to get a 97 mph in the 5th inning.

I like Pineda a lot, but our offense is so pitiful that I am fine with him being a sacrificial lamb.

[Sweezo]

the lesson to this long-winded post (and it was mentioned above, making my contribution more or less irrelevant, i guess): fans over-value their own prospects/young players to an INSANE degree. while i'm guilty of this at times, too, i will say this: i liked michael pineda a great deal. but i didn't love him, nor was he untouchable. anyone who screams bloody murder to this right now (i don't live in seattle, so i'm not getting the 'local' response) simply overvalued pineda.

And a lot of people who are whining about Campos being thrown in to the thrown probably wouldn't be able to pick his picture out of a police line-up. I like his promise but one season of single-A ball doesn't mean a whole lot.

For the most part, people who call into sports radio shows up here are fickle idiots. Which makes the Seattle fanbase similar to...every other fanbase. As soon as Montero hits a couple home runs in spring training, today's outrage will be forgotten.

[Jeff23]

Wow i am shocked. I dont like this trade. Michael Pineda was a favorite of mine and he's going to have an amazing career. Pineda, i am gonna miss you. Why didnt we just draft a strong hitter damn.

[moocow007]

As a Yankee fan who has watched Montero play quite a bit, yes, you guys are getting one of the best looking young hitting prospects in the game. Montero's power isn't just in the distance that he can hit a ball but also how hard the balls he hits, even grounders, are. There were numerous times during last season when the other teams infielders had problems fielding ground balls hit right to them by Montero, it was that hard. And he also showed that he can not only hit for power but also for average. The slack he's received has absolutely nothing to do with his hitting and has to do with his catching. He's best as a DH or a 1B...though there was talk in previous years about Montero possibly being moved to RF. He's got great size, strength and athletic ability (for a big strong guy like him). I've seen hyped Yankee prospects that probably didn't deserve it who I could care less about being dealt and I've seen Yankee prospects that I really didn't want to see go. Montero is definitely the latter.

in that same vein, in Pineda you are getting an incredibly talented pitcher. His fastball can and does hit 100. And his slider is simply unhittable.

That package makes him a very tough pitcher to hit. But he needs a third pitch to use against left-handers, and his change up needs a fair amount of work. You'd only see him throw it once or twice a game as a 'show me' pitch more than anything else.

As the game goes on, he doesn't stop challenging hitters with his fastball. And likes to throw it faster/harder as the game goes on. Swung and missed at a 94 mph fastball in the 3rd inning? Well, you're going to get a 97 mph in the 5th inning.

I like Pineda a lot, but our offense is so pitiful that I am fine with him being a sacrificial lamb.

Thanks. Yeah I think it was a trade that makes a lot of sense for both teams.

To emphasize on hard hitting and Montero a little more...he's a guy that very likely will hit for nice average, not because he's a slap hitter or he's knows how to shoot gaps or that he uses all fields but rather, and it's back to the hard hitting, balls jump off his bat like nobodies business. Grounders are in the outfield a lot of times even before the infielders can react. That's where his high average is going to come from. He takes the pitch where it's thrown and he hammers it. That inevitably will lead him to hit and get on base and not just be a home run hitter. It will be interesting to see how he does at Safeco and I'm sure that he'll lose some homers due to it but he's definitely got the power to hit it out of anywhere. Like I said, the last time I've seen balls jump off of a guys bat like balls jump off of Montero's bat was Strawberry and before him, Dave Winfield. You guys will see laser beam line drives go over the fence quite regularly where the OF'ers wont even have to move.

[TTown]

okay:

we have montero, olivo, and jaso, and, i suppose, adam moore, if he's even healthy. let's scratch moore off the list for now. but we do have a lot of catchers. i've read a lot about montero being 'questionable' behind the plate, but i mean, so is olivo. still, i haven't quite sensed a consensus from scouts: i've read that he 'may' be able to catch in the majors, he 'may not', and 'he might for 5-6 years, but he's not a long term option' (which is silly, not every catcher can play the position into his 30s anyway). then again, i heard a lot about how dustin ackley probably couldn't play second base at this level, and i think that was a crock. so...

1. i'm going to operate under the assumption that we're going to rotate montero and olivo at catcher, with montero on DH duty on his days off behind the plate.

2. i'm going to operate under the assumption that carp is our DH on days montero catches, and he plays LF on days olivo catches. i know, i know, he's not god's gift to defense, but i was reading over some comments on lookout landing last night and this subject was broached, to which someone replied, "do we really want another raul ibanez?" and i thought to myself... yes. yes, we do. our CF and our RF have incredible range, and we can always put in wells or trayvon in late inning situations. i'm all for sound defense, believe me, but i really like carp's bat.

3. i'm going to operate under the assumption that wells is our LF on days carp DHs.

agree, disagree?

this is all assuming we don't go out and do something like sign prince fielder, which seems like a long shot now.

[Sweezo]

we have montero, olivo, and jaso, and, i suppose, adam moore, if he's even healthy. let's scratch moore off the list for now. but we do have a lot of catchers. i've read a lot about montero being 'questionable' behind the plate, but i mean, so is olivo. still, i haven't quite sensed a consensus from scouts: i've read that he 'may' be able to catch in the majors, he 'may not', and 'he might for 5-6 years, but he's not a long term option' (which is silly, not every catcher can play the position into his 30s anyway). then again, i heard a lot about how dustin ackley probably couldn't play second base at this level, and i think that was a crock. so...

The rumblings today seem to indicate M's do think Montero can play catcher, which might shift things dramatically in terms of what we they thought they could do in FA still. Now, let's say they pull a rabbit out of their hat and bring Fielder in:

1. Ichiro [RF]
2. Ackley [2B]
3. Smoak [1B]
4. Fielder [DH]
5. Montero [C]
6. Carp/Wells [LF]
7. Guti [CF]
8. Seager [3B]
9. Ryan [SS]

That's a line-up that certainly requires certain things to break right for us. Ichiro needs a dead cat bounce. Smoak has to grow and stay healthy. Fielder has to decide Seattle isn't something he hates. Carp has to avoid regression. Guti has to show he can stay healthy and that his power's come back over the offseason.

But if those things do happen...I'm not worried about that offense failing to score runs.

1. i'm going to operate under the assumption that we're going to rotate montero and olivo at catcher, with montero on DH duty on his days off behind the plate.

Everything I've heard about Montero's defense at catcher has been negative. Everything I've seen from Miguel Olivo as a catcher has been negative.

The last three catchers that have recieved regular playing time for the Mariners [Olivo, R. Johnson, J. Bard] have all been terribly defensively and unable to hit the ball worth a damn. Montero as a poor defensive catcher is par for the course. If he can hit the ball, I can live with mediocre-to-poor defense if his body's up to task.

Jaso's caught around 100 games on average the past two seasons. One positive Jaso offers is patience at the plate and a left handed bat. If the M's are looking at a 'platoon' partner at C for Montero, I'd pick Jaso over Olivo.

Olivo makes $3.5m this season, Jaso about $450k. $3.5m isn't a bad deal for a catcher, and I would think that is a contract that could easily be moved to another team looking for a catcher. Olivo's numbers over his career are terrible at Safeco, so move him somewhere where he'll be able to produce and let Adam Moore be the backup backup.

2. i'm going to operate under the assumption that carp is our DH on days montero catches, and he plays LF on days olivo catches. i know, i know, he's not god's gift to defense, but i was reading over some comments on lookout landing last night and this subject was broached, to which someone replied, "do we really want another raul ibanez?" and i thought to myself... yes. yes, we do. our CF and our RF have incredible range, and we can always put in wells or trayvon in late inning situations. i'm all for sound defense, believe me, but i really like carp's bat.

I'm not quite there yet. Plus, swapping Pineda out for...well, anyone...means we've moved a pitcher for whom a great defense isn't as much of a priority for a pitcher who's likely going to need as much help as we can get. The dropoff from Pineda to someone like Furbush is huge.

3. i'm going to operate under the assumption that wells is our LF on days carp DHs.

Assuming we don't sign Fielder, I'd agree that Wells is the clear favorite. Ryan Ludwick's still a man without a home, and I could see him added to the mix for the right price.

this is all assuming we don't go out and do something like sign prince fielder, which seems like a long shot now.

Might actually be less of a longshot, potentially. It all depends on whether this "Montero's going to catch" thing is a smokescreen. If Fielder feels wary about wandering into an situation where he is IT for the offense, maybe seeing the team upgrade a weakness with one of the most highly touted offensive prospects in the game eases that burden.

Or maybe not. It's all a big guessing game.

[Bulltalk]

I haven't had much any time to read or post much the last month with my fellow Mariner and Hawk fans. It was nice to see some intelligent reactions to this trade, including from the Yankee fan.

We need hitting. Period. To get the 2nd highest rated hitting prospect in MLB is a good thing, as much as I like(d) and thought highly of Pineda. It's not at all difficult for me to imagine (from all I've read, seen and heard) that Montero, Ackley, Smoak, and possibly Carp could well make for one of the better middle hitting lineups in the years to come. Ackley IMO is a future long time all-star. I see him as either a 2nd or 3rd hitter. Smoak can hit, has big upside, but next year is going to go a long way towards getting a handle on what we've got here. I'm cautiously optimistic. Montero, from all I've heard and read (in this thread too), is the real thing. A clean up hitter for years to come whom we more or less have control of for the next 5-6 years. Carp just looks like a guy who can hit the ball. If these other guys pan out, he might be a good 6th hitter in the lineup to have.

Sweezo you already well mentioned our other pitching options down on the farm. We're strong at SPing. We dealt from strength to fill a huge weakness, and we got a real potential killer in the middle of the lineup. Also, we have the 3rd pick in the draft this coming May/June. We could easily add the #1 or #2 pitching prospect in the draft to our franchise if we so choose to.

I'm down with this trade. We had to give up to get. Time will tell how it pans out for both teams.

I'd still like Fielder, figuring out all our positional madness be damned. But I don't think he's coming here. I never held out much hope for it.

[Sweezo]

Sweezo you already well mentioned our other pitching options down on the farm. We're strong at SPing. We dealt from strength to fill a huge weakness, and we got a real potential killer in the middle of the lineup. Also, we have the 3rd pick in the draft this coming May/June. We could easily add the #1 or #2 pitching prospect in the draft to our franchise if we so choose to.

I read that part of your post and this thought rang through my head: This trade probably isn't possible if the M's drafted Rendon.

Think about it. Considering how much we wanted Rendon [I remember you being more disappointed when we passed on him though...] at the time, if we'd picked him over Hultzen we don't have quite the SP depth that we have now. Do we deal Pineda with only Walker/Paxton waiting in the wings? Considering Walker's probably projected to come up in '13 if we're optimistic? I kind of doubt it.

As interesting as Rendon is...who's preferable? Montero who draws comparisons to M. Cabrera/A. Pujols, or Rendon who draws comparisons to E. Longoria/R. Zimmerman? Knowing one's had some injury issues in his last year of college and the other put him pedestrian numbers in the minors last year because he seemed, quite simply, bored with the level of competition?

I think I may prefer Montero. Rendon may end up being a more complete player, but Montero should just hit the absolute **** out of the ball. I want a player who can hit the absolute **** out the ball for once.

[Sweezo]

Also, we have the 3rd pick in the draft this coming May/June. We could easily add the #1 or #2 pitching prospect in the draft to our franchise if we so choose to.

Like Mark Appel, a power arm from Stanford who's been the early favorite to go #1. And we know how much those types of pre-draft predictions are worth.

We also might have a shot at someone like Devin Marrero, a plus SS who should stick at the position [and when do you ever here THAT from a SS prospect?]. Seems like it would take him awhile to reach the big leagues...but who knows?

I don't know that I like the idea of drafting for need, but there happen to be some very talented players thought to be worth drafting early and many of them would fit a need for us. And that's...fantastic.

[Sweezo]

Not that it needs to be said but if Fielder goes to the Rangers I'm going to be severely pissed off. The Montero move may have been a bold move, but holy hell is that not enough to get this team to compete with the rest of this suddenly stacked division,

[TTown]

with the halos and rangers going AL East on us, we're going to have to learn to open up the checkbook a bit more; or, perhaps more accurately, we're going to need to spend money wiser in the future. $90-100 mil is a lot of money, and several franchises would love to get that high, but man, we've paid a lot of horrible baseball players an ungodly amount of money to play for us the last several years.

it'll be interesting to see what we do the next couple years with ichiro, then figgs, off the books. all of our top pitching prospects should be up, all of our young offensive cornerstones should be well under contract still, and we'll have money to spend. in theory.

[Sweezo]

it'll be interesting to see what we do the next couple years with ichiro, then figgs, off the books. all of our top pitching prospects should be up, all of our young offensive cornerstones should be well under contract still, and we'll have money to spend. in theory.

Around that same time our TV deal should be up for renegotiation as well.

Still, let's say the goal is to contend in 2-3 years. 2015? With our last playoff appearance coming in 2001?

I don't know that the fanbase can wait that long. Attendance at games has dwindled consistently the past five years, and we have to do something to keep the fans interested. Getting rid of Ichiro and Figgins' contracts doesn't do much good if attendance keeps dipping and the team wants to cut payroll.

[Slats]

M's get Kevin Millwood for a minor league deal and spring training invite. More pitching depth to bridge the gap to Hultzen & Paxton.

https://twitter.com/#!/JonHeymanCBS/sta ... 4088443904

millwood deal is minor-league deal but has good chance to make team. wedge & p. coach carl willis were w/ "wood'' in cleve

[TTown]

hey, i like it. nice stop-gap starter. last year never really got off the ground for him, but prior to 2011 he's made at least 29 starts every season since 2004. he was borderline terrfic as recently as 2009, his final year with the rangers.