Draft lottery Thread - Mavs #10

[DJ_3_Ball]

I think there is a big difference between prospect and project. A project is a player with insane potential but doesn’t really have any NBA ready skills yet. Giannis was a project, Bilal Coulibaly is a project. DL2 and OMax both have NBA ready skills. Expecting them to contribute right away is not the same as thinking that they can. Particularly Lively. Michael Finley said that they were impressed with his defensive reads and knowledge. If he gets the learning aspects down. We also need to know his weight, a lot of reports are saying he’s 230-235. If that’s true he can easily be 240 by opening day. He can come in a block shots, finish lobs, and rebound the ball just fine because those are his strengths and those skills translate very well. We have seen a ton of young bigs come in and make impact right away. Mobley, Kessler, JJJ, Duren, Williams, Robinson are all in just the last 5 years. Now granted some of them were playing garbage ball on bad teams but Mobley made the playoffs playing 33 minutes and Kessler could’ve made the playoffs with Utah but they decided to tank. I think Lively’s goal should be to be starting by January-February.

For O-Max it’s more difficult. The win last night was Dallas got the best on ball defender and the best interior defender in college basketball. However, Lively’s skills will be easier to translate because the offensive side of the ball will be such a cake walk. Finish lobs and set screens that’s it. For O-Max it will come down to can he hit his 3s. If he can he can play. He for sure has the defensive tools and skills, I would say there is a very good chance he is the best on ball defender Dallas has to start the season. He’s also 21 and has a NBA body so the weight won’t be an issue their.

David Robinson played between 231 lbs - 236 lbs at 7'1"

Lively did not look anywhere close to The Admiral's physique on Draft Night. Kid is very young. He has time to add muscle to his frame. He looks like the 215 lbs he's listed as. Maybe with a nutritionist and time in the weight room this off season, Lively can add 8 - 10 lbs of muscle this season. That would be great.

[Teffer10]

Not bad... But if Green will not become a solid starter this season it's a disaster.
This must be his year.

The problem with Green is he's too small for SF(he's got the size of a SG) and Hardy is more of a SG than PG...if Mavs didn't have Kyrie Cason Wallace would be perfect for this team..Mavs did ok,drafted for their need but you can't expect this team to do much better than last season...rookies rarely help to win games..Mav still have a hole at the PF and SF position...Nico said this is Just the begining,we'll see what they do next... they're obviously waiting on Kyrie and even if he resigns could opt to fully reload in the next offseason

This is modern day position less basketball. Hardy is going to get 0 minutes at the 1 next year when Luka and Kyrie are healthy. And even still Josh was the 3rd ball handler so he’d get PG minutes over Hardy.

Josh being a SG or SF is unimportant. He’s an athletic wing who shoots well and guards small wings and guards the best. To counter that Dallas needs a wing player who guards big wings and forwards best.

Also remember that offensively Luka plays the 1 but defensively he play more of a 4.

Luka, Hardy, THJ and Kyrie's defensive deficiencies won't be as much of a factor as last season when spectators got to see opponents blow past them doing layup drills with Powell having the best seat in the house.

They can get up on shooters more aggressively now knowing there should be some resistance in the paint if the opponent blows past them.

We also have some shot-disruptors now, so opponents that are struggling to shoot, might think twice about driving it to the rim as a contingency strategy.

[BeiBeau]

I think there is a big difference between prospect and project. A project is a player with insane potential but doesn’t really have any NBA ready skills yet. Giannis was a project, Bilal Coulibaly is a project. DL2 and OMax both have NBA ready skills. Expecting them to contribute right away is not the same as thinking that they can. Particularly Lively. Michael Finley said that they were impressed with his defensive reads and knowledge. If he gets the learning aspects down. We also need to know his weight, a lot of reports are saying he’s 230-235. If that’s true he can easily be 240 by opening day. He can come in a block shots, finish lobs, and rebound the ball just fine because those are his strengths and those skills translate very well. We have seen a ton of young bigs come in and make impact right away. Mobley, Kessler, JJJ, Duren, Williams, Robinson are all in just the last 5 years. Now granted some of them were playing garbage ball on bad teams but Mobley made the playoffs playing 33 minutes and Kessler could’ve made the playoffs with Utah but they decided to tank. I think Lively’s goal should be to be starting by January-February.

For O-Max it’s more difficult. The win last night was Dallas got the best on ball defender and the best interior defender in college basketball. However, Lively’s skills will be easier to translate because the offensive side of the ball will be such a cake walk. Finish lobs and set screens that’s it. For O-Max it will come down to can he hit his 3s. If he can he can play. He for sure has the defensive tools and skills, I would say there is a very good chance he is the best on ball defender Dallas has to start the season. He’s also 21 and has a NBA body so the weight won’t be an issue their.

David Robinson played between 231 lbs - 236 lbs at 7'1"

Lively did not look anywhere close to The Admiral's physique on Draft Night. Kid is very young. He has time to add muscle to his frame. He looks like the 215 lbs he's listed as. Maybe with a nutritionist and time in the weight room this off season, Lively can add 8 - 10 lbs of muscle this season. That would be great.

Everyone carries weight very differently. Duke reported him at 230 last season. Looking at dudes physique is kinda weak. Especially when comparing to the Admiral who has probably one of the best physiques in NBA history. For example, Poeltl is also 7’1 230 and has the physique of a wet potato chip. Lively was reported at 215-220 coming out of high school and has very clearly add quite a bit of muscle. So I believe the 230 maybe 235. I wish he would’ve just weighted in at the combine. But I agree. 10 pounds this offseason at his size is fully attainable. I think that safely he would be between 235-245 with 10 pounds. That’s a good playing weight.

[DJ_3_Ball]

I'm warming to the idea of Draymond Green. First, I think he'd be tremendous for Lively. I also think Draymond would have gotten in everyone's ass during the 2nd half of the season when the Mavs were in free fall. Mavs haven't had that kind of leader on this team since Dirk, Jason Terry & J Kidd (as a player).

I'm favoring letting Christian Wood go. A sign & trade to move THJ frees up the cap space for Draymond.

My ideal finish to the Mavs offseason looks something like this:

Subtract:

Dwight Powell
Christian Wood
THJ

Add:

Kyrie (resign for hopefully less than the max)
Draymond (would also take Brook Lopez, Dillon Brooks, or some other significant defender)
Jakob Poeltl
DFS (either trade for DFS or sign a Bruce Brown type)
*Would love to try and sign Yuta for some shooting off the bench, if the Mavs can make the salaries work

DEPTH CHART

PG: Luka, Kyrie, Hardy
SG: Kyrie, Hardy, Green
SF: DFS/Bruce Brown, Green, Bullock, O Max
PF: Draymond, Maxi
C: Poeltl, Holmes, Lively, McGee

[Teffer10]

I think a lot of people don't realize it isn't only about protecting the rim. One of Lively's supposed strengths is his ability to switch out on smaller players and the lack of weight might actually be a plus in that regard early in his career.

And Tyson was listed at 7'1 225 when he entered the league so there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of difference between those two.

[BeiBeau]

I'm warming to the idea of Draymond Green. First, I think he'd be tremendous for Lively. I also think Draymond would have gotten in everyone's ass during the 2nd half of the season when the Mavs were in free fall. Mavs haven't had that kind of leader on this team since Dirk, Jason Terry & J Kidd (as a player).

I'm favoring letting Christian Wood go. A sign & trade to move THJ frees up the cap space for Draymond.

My ideal finish to the Mavs offseason looks something like this:

Subtract:

Dwight Powell
Christian Wood
THJ

Add:

Kyrie (resign for hopefully less than the max)
Draymond (would also take Brook Lopez, Dillon Brooks, or some other significant defender)
Jakob Poeltl
DFS (either trade for DFS or sign a Bruce Brown type)
*Would love to try and sign Yuta for some shooting off the bench, if the Mavs can make the salaries work

DEPTH CHART

PG: Luka, Kyrie, Hardy
SG: Kyrie, Hardy, Green
SF: DFS/Bruce Brown, Green, Bullock, O Max
PF: Draymond, Maxi
C: Poeltl, Holmes, Lively, McGee

I mean they’d win the NBA championship easily if they got all that. The problem is that it is completely and totally impossible. For good measure I think they should also add Nikola Jokic just to be safe.

Once Dallas signs Kyrie they have about 11-19 million dollars until they reach the first apron. If Kyrie gets his full make they have 11 million dollars. If he takes what he asked from Brooklyn then they have about 14 million. And if he takes a discount and signs for 4 years 180 million(starts at 40 million) then they have 19 million dollars.

Using the MLE or a Sign and trade hard caps you. So that means we can’t under any circumstances go over the 172 million dollars for the 1st apron. Not even to add vet mins. We have to be under that number at all times.

Let’s say Kyrie wants to win so he takes the 180 million over 4 so we have 19 million. So to start Draymond is going to get 30 million dollars per year(probably 100/3 but starts a 30). So at best Dallas could maybe send THJ/Bullock/2027 1st/ 2025 pick swap/ 2026 pick swap in a sign and trade. That is 2 rotation players and almost all our remaining draft capital to get Draymond. We still have 17 million to play with so we MLE Bruce Brown(which is a long shot because like 15 different teams are going to be offering him the MLE or more). We now have 5 million. Poeltl will be getting 20 million a year for 4 years. So we send Holmes(negative value right now, and McGee also negative value right now) for Poeltl plus every single draft pick Dallas has(it still won’t be enough) so we have to add Hardy and Green or OMax to get Poeltl. Which leaves us with

Luka/ Kyrie
Kyrie/ Luka
Bruce Brown/ OMax
Draymond/ Kleber
Poeltl/ Lively

And we would have 0 draft picks until 2031. Draymond and Kyrie will break down eventually cause they’re on the wrong side of 30. And when they do we won’t be able to replace them and then we start losing and Luka leaves.

[BeiBeau]

I think a lot of people don't realize it isn't only about protecting the rim. One of Lively's supposed strengths is his ability to switch out on smaller players and the lack of weight might actually be a plus in that regard early in his career.

And Tyson was listed at 7'1 225 when he entered the league so there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of difference between those two.

He runs like a deer and isn’t going to clamp up Steph curry but he very well could be Rudy Gobert at the rim without the weakness of getting exposed on the perimeter. Yeah he’s young and unproven. But Clint Capela would never be able to do that.

[BeiBeau]

Stein is easily a top 5 NBA reporter and he is saying that Dallas plans to have Full MLE money. The only way that could happen is if

1. Kyrie takes a discount. I don’t think it’s impossible. Kyrie hates the media and would love to prove them wrong him taking a 30 million dollars over 4 years pay cut to win would silence a lot of criticisms and I think Nico could sell that to him based on their relationship. This would leave 19 million, which is enough for a 14 man roster, the MLE, and the BAE.

2. Nico has something in the works to dump some money some where. Maybe McGee and some 2nds into the Wizards or Pistons cap would almost do the same thing as a Kyrie discount. This would leave 15 million dollars which is enough for the MLE and a 14 man roster.

With that in mind, I think the Kyrie discount is the best case scenario. So then I would want to see,

1. Bruce Brown with the MLE(Jalen McDaniels as a backup plan)
2. Sure I’ll bite Yuta Watanabe with the BAE(Keita Bates Diop as a backup plan)
3. 3 team trade:
Dallas gets Grant Williams(56 million over 4 years)
Dallas send Bullock to Celtics
Dallas send McGee and future 2nds to a tanking team
4. Resign Powell to a vet min (I know you all hate him and you’re all wrong, it’s not his fault that he’s better then the trash they’ve tried to replace him with)

That would give Dallas:

Luka/ Kyrie
Kyrie/ THJ/ Hardy
Green/ Brown / Yuta
Williams/ Kleber/ OMax
Holmes/ Lively/ Powell

Holmes has pretty negative value right now because they changed the offensive system in Sacramento in went away from what he is good at which is the PnR. Well now Luka and Kyrie can pick and roll with him all day and remind everyone that he is a starting center in the NBA. I think Lively could be ready to start by the trade deadline so Dallas should use the first half of the season to get him ready and turn Holmes’ negative into a positive and then flip him for some draft capital at the deadline.

[41Dirk41]

Holmes is a solid vet... Don't compare him with Powell please. Dwight is crap.

Holmes didn't play last year because was out of Sacramento project but he is solid for 20/25minutes a game.

[BeiBeau]

Holmes is a solid vet... Don't compare him with Powell please. Dwight is crap.

Holmes didn't play last year because was out of Sacramento project but he is solid for 20/25minutes a game.

Yeah you're just wrong about Powell. He brings and elite offensive skill with his finishing. Is a great locker room guy and leader, hustles and will teach Lively a lot about setting NBA screens. He also plays a lot of games and will help this team make it through the regular season. He is a steal on the vet min. Again it is not his fault the FO is incapable of finding a better center for the last 5 years.

[Mavrelous]

Holmes is a better rebounder (below average, Powell is a bad rebounder)
Holmes has a great mid range touch, Powell can't do jack away from the basket.
Powell is one of the best rim runners in the league, he reads the geometry and angles, and slides to the exact spots that needed to keep the lane open or the lob, he's also tireless and consistent, can roll hard 40 times, get 2 lobs, and still continue to do what he should do, there's a reason Luka loves to play with him.

[dirkules_41]

Holmes is a solid vet... Don't compare him with Powell please. Dwight is crap.

Holmes didn't play last year because was out of Sacramento project but he is solid for 20/25minutes a game.

Yeah you're just wrong about Powell. He brings and elite offensive skill with his finishing. Is a great locker room guy and leader, hustles and will teach Lively a lot about setting NBA screens. He also plays a lot of games and will help this team make it through the regular season. He is a steal on the vet min. Again it is not his fault the FO is incapable of finding a better center for the last 5 years.

I'm sorry but Powell might hustle but is effectively a black hole on defense and on offense can only roll to the basket (granted, he's elite at that) and set blocks alright but other than that is entirely useless on O as well. Maybe ok for spot minutes but on a winning team he should not see the court in 65 out of 82 games and definitely not in the POs.

[BeiBeau]

Holmes is a solid vet... Don't compare him with Powell please. Dwight is crap.

Holmes didn't play last year because was out of Sacramento project but he is solid for 20/25minutes a game.

Yeah you're just wrong about Powell. He brings and elite offensive skill with his finishing. Is a great locker room guy and leader, hustles and will teach Lively a lot about setting NBA screens. He also plays a lot of games and will help this team make it through the regular season. He is a steal on the vet min. Again it is not his fault the FO is incapable of finding a better center for the last 5 years.

I'm sorry but Powell might hustle but is effectively a black hole on defense and on offense can only roll to the basket (granted, he's elite at that) and set blocks alright but other than that is entirely useless on O as well. Maybe ok for spot minutes but on a winning team he should not see the court in 65 out of 82 games and definitely not in the POs.

A "black hole" is a weird way to describe a below average defender. He's not a good rim protector because he is small and has short arms but he is in position and moves his feet fine. He can comfortably play 15-20 minutes on a team that makes the playoffs especially if they are a PnR based offense which the Mavs are. He won't play in the playoffs but like it or not we need players who can get us through the RS. If we asked Maxi to do what Dwight does for us he would be broken down and done for the year before December started.

[arkuo]

Yeah you're just wrong about Powell. He brings and elite offensive skill with his finishing. Is a great locker room guy and leader, hustles and will teach Lively a lot about setting NBA screens. He also plays a lot of games and will help this team make it through the regular season. He is a steal on the vet min. Again it is not his fault the FO is incapable of finding a better center for the last 5 years.

I'm sorry but Powell might hustle but is effectively a black hole on defense and on offense can only roll to the basket (granted, he's elite at that) and set blocks alright but other than that is entirely useless on O as well. Maybe ok for spot minutes but on a winning team he should not see the court in 65 out of 82 games and definitely not in the POs.

A "black hole" is a weird way to describe a below average defender. He's not a good rim protector because he is small and has short arms but he is in position and moves his feet fine. He can comfortably play 15-20 minutes on a team that makes the playoffs especially if they are a PnR based offense which the Mavs are. He won't play in the playoffs but like it or not we need players who can get us through the RS. If we asked Maxi to do what Dwight does for us he would be broken down and done for the year before December started.

Agreed. Miami didnt do jack shite in the regular season and almost didn't make the playoffs. But they just turned it up and went to the finals. You need backup players to give your starters breathing room during the regular season. Powell should be back for like 5M or less.

[41Dirk41]

Powell is a 10/15minutes RS guy... 0 rim protector, bad rebounder,can't defend big guy and he can only scores lob.
If Dallas had not had Luka he never played so much despite his great attitude on and off the court.

Dwight is great guy, very hustler and a gym rat. Awesome mindset. Perfect vet in the locker room.
Mavs fans hate him because Cuban and his crew never signed a real starting C. It's not Powell fault.

But unfortunately he hasn't basketball skills.
He tried to train his shooting skills but he failed.


For the vet min is good. No more please.

[Archx]

If you guys are comparing Holmes and Powell's ability to finish, well... In short, Powell is horrible if he's not spoon fed exactly at or above the rim.

Powell 0-3 feet = 65% per career
Holmes 0-3 feet = 75% per career

Powell 3-10 feet = 39% per career
Holmes 3-10 feet = 48% per career

For reference, Luka is 72% and 50% per career in those areas. Another great around the rim finisher Lebron 72% and 42%.

So all in all, Powell is not THAT good, actually quite bad. We all saw how many layups he fumbled in the past. He can't do anything on offense other than set screen and get a lob. On defense, he does hustle and does get hit in the face, he's elite at that.

[41Dirk41]

If you guys are comparing Holmes and Powell's ability to finish, well... In short, Powell is horrible if he's not spoon fed exactly at or above the rim.

Powell 0-3 feet = 65% per career
Holmes 0-3 feet = 75% per career

Powell 3-10 feet = 39% per career
Holmes 3-10 feet = 48% per career

For reference, Luka is 72% and 50% per career in those areas. Another great around the rim finisher Lebron 72% and 42%.

So all in all, Powell is not THAT good, actually quite bad. We all saw how many layups he fumbled in the past. He can't do anything on offense other than set screen and get a lob. On defense, he does hustle and does get hit in the face, he's elite at that.

Holmes is good maybe not good enough because he is small... This is his big problem.

A couple of inches and maybe his career was different.

[BeiBeau]

If you guys are comparing Holmes and Powell's ability to finish, well... In short, Powell is horrible if he's not spoon fed exactly at or above the rim.

Powell 0-3 feet = 65% per career
Holmes 0-3 feet = 75% per career

Powell 3-10 feet = 39% per career
Holmes 3-10 feet = 48% per career

For reference, Luka is 72% and 50% per career in those areas. Another great around the rim finisher Lebron 72% and 42%.

So all in all, Powell is not THAT good, actually quite bad. We all saw how many layups he fumbled in the past. He can't do anything on offense other than set screen and get a lob. On defense, he does hustle and does get hit in the face, he's elite at that.

Powell has shot 70% from the field for the last 2 seasons. Yeah his career number is lower cause he was worse when he was younger. Who cares about career stats when he has clearly improved over his career.

"actually quite bad" this is a perfect example of someone reading box scores and checking stats without considering what they have watched with their own eyes. Anyone who watches the Dallas Mavericks knows Dwight finishes well.

[BeiBeau]

Powell is a 10/15minutes RS guy... 0 rim protector, bad rebounder,can't defend big guy and he can only scores lob.
If Dallas had not had Luka he never played so much despite his great attitude on and off the court.

Dwight is great guy, very hustler and a gym rat. Awesome mindset. Perfect vet in the locker room.
Mavs fans hate him because Cuban and his crew never signed a real starting C. It's not Powell fault.

But unfortunately he hasn't basketball skills.
He tried to train his shooting skills but he failed.


For the vet min is good. No more please.

He played 4 seasons in Dallas without Luka and was still an NBA caliber big.

[BeiBeau]

If you guys are comparing Holmes and Powell's ability to finish, well... In short, Powell is horrible if he's not spoon fed exactly at or above the rim.

Powell 0-3 feet = 65% per career
Holmes 0-3 feet = 75% per career

Powell 3-10 feet = 39% per career
Holmes 3-10 feet = 48% per career

For reference, Luka is 72% and 50% per career in those areas. Another great around the rim finisher Lebron 72% and 42%.

So all in all, Powell is not THAT good, actually quite bad. We all saw how many layups he fumbled in the past. He can't do anything on offense other than set screen and get a lob. On defense, he does hustle and does get hit in the face, he's elite at that.

Holmes is good maybe not good enough because he is small... This is his big problem.

A couple of inches and maybe his career was different.

Holmes is a better defender then Powell and a much better rebounder even though he's a couple inches shorter(he's like 6'8"). Lively is still going to be the only rim protector though.