My latest mock

[Icness]

http://www.detroitlionsdraft.com/2012/1 ... -4-update/

Top ten:
KC-Joeckel
JAX-Lotulelei
OAK-Teo
PHI-T. Wilson
CAR-Milliner
CLE-Werner
DET-D. Moore
ARI-Geno Smith
TEN-Richardson

Chiefs fans apparently hate this. Or perhaps they hate me giving them Barkley at 33.

[eliasrapp98]

Absolutely hate it for Philly. Foles is playing fine for a rookie and we don't need lineman once Peters, Kelce, Watkins, and Herremans come back.

[gswhoops]

Every other mock I've seen has Jarvis Jones as a top-3 pick...why did you have him fall until 30?

[Cammo101]

Every other mock I've seen has Jarvis Jones as a top-3 pick...why did you have him fall until 30?

There is no chance Jarvis Jones falls out of the top 10. Barring injury of course.

[Icness]

Every other mock I've seen has Jarvis Jones as a top-3 pick...why did you have him fall until 30?

Two reasons:
1. Spinal stenosis. He has the same condition that forced Marcus McNeill to retire at 28 and lose considerable athletic prowess before then. NFL teams are going to take this VERY seriously. It wouldn't surprise me at all if half the teams in the league black flag him medically. Given the increased emphasis on player safety and the litigiousness of the NFLPA, teams are going to be rightly scared to take a risk on a guy with that kind of condition.

2. He's not very good in tight quarters, can't extend his arms and get off blocks well. Doesn't mean he's not a good player, and often he's great, but he's got more holes than most people like to acknowledge.

[CJ_18]

2 Questions if you have time sir

1. How does Dee Milliner compare to the other 2 top 10 SEC corners of the past 2 years? (Claiborne and Peterson)
I would assume hes a little closer in terms of talent to Claiborne, because Peterson seemed to seperate himself ahead a little bit as he nears an elite level.

2. How is Miami QB Stephen Morris as an nfl prospect? Just interested because I watch alot of Miami games and I don't know anything about scouting, but his arm strength and touch on some of his passes (deep passes specifically) seem tremendous to me. Just interested in your thoughts about him so I can improve my perspective of college QBs

[Icness]

Milliner is not as good as either Claiborne or Peterson overall, but not far behind. He's not as apt to lock someone down, but he is very good at making plays on the ball in the air. He's a better tackler than Peterson. More of a guy you want as a wide-side corner in a zone scheme, not a man-to-man scheme.

Honestly I haven't evaluated Morris, never been on my radar. Can't say I watched more than about a half of Miami football this year so far.

[gswhoops]

Hey Ice, where do you think Marcus Lattimore will go, now that he's declared?

[Rafael122]

Where would you take Marcus Lattimore?

[gswhoops]

Mid-to-late second round, probably. Someone like the Jets, Packers, Bengals, etc. will pick him up somewhere in that range, I'd assume. Depends on how the team docs grade his recovery & prognosis.

[Rafael122]

Second round? Waste of a pick. I think anywhere from 4-6th is where he should go. He's already torn his ACL in both knees, most likely a torn LCL on top of that. Remember, this is a kid who might not play in 2013 at all. Wasting a 2nd round pick on him would be a huge mistake. A 2nd rounder is a potential starter/rotational guy.

[Roger Murdock]

I doubt Lattimore gets drafted. Both his knees are destroyed. Nobody has ever come back from a double ACL tear IIRC. It ruined Gary Baxters career a few years ago.

Even if you think he can get back to full health, he plays a non premium position, will not play at all in 2013 guaranteed and if he plays at all in 2014 will not be recovered fully yet, and has always gets injured anyways.

Thoughts on Anthony Barr? I think he might be my favorite prospect in the draft.

[RiotPunch]

Hey Jeff-

Have you heard anything on Louis Nix III declaring? If he does, where do you think he goes off the board?

[NeedsMoreCheese]

Second round? Waste of a pick. I think anywhere from 4-6th is where he should go. He's already torn his ACL in both knees, most likely a torn LCL on top of that. Remember, this is a kid who might not play in 2013 at all. Wasting a 2nd round pick on him would be a huge mistake. A 2nd rounder is a potential starter/rotational guy.

I'd tend to agree with that, but keep in mind Willis McGahee was projected as a 3rd rounder after his injury and ended up being picked 23rd overall, so its hard to say and all it takes is one team. I know its not the exact same situation (though McGahee missed all of his rookie season due to the rehab needed) and Lattimore had not just one but two injuries, but its the closest parallel you can really get in a situation like this.

[Worm Guts]

Both Cedric Griffin and Terry Allen tore their ACL's twice and came back. Allen scored 20 TD's a couple seasons after his 2nd surgery. I expect he'll return and eventually be close to what he was.

[gswhoops]

Second round? Waste of a pick. I think anywhere from 4-6th is where he should go. He's already torn his ACL in both knees, most likely a torn LCL on top of that. Remember, this is a kid who might not play in 2013 at all. Wasting a 2nd round pick on him would be a huge mistake. A 2nd rounder is a potential starter/rotational guy.

He looked good this year before the injury, so I would tend to think that the previous ACL injury is a lesser concern.

I see guys like Willis McGahee and Frank Gore who recovered from gruesome knee injuries and went on to have very successful NFL careers. Look at what Adrian Peterson is doing in Minny after tearing his ACL. It's very possible to come back from these kinds of injuries and be a successful pro, especially with the fact that Lattimore will have access to the absolute best doctors and facilities in the NFL.

Considering that before the injury he was far and away the best RB in this class and pretty much a lock to be a top-20 pick, I don't think him going on the second day is a stretch at all. Obviously it all depends on how a team's doctors evaluate his injury, but I think its likely he'll be a 2nd/3rd rounder.

[Icness]

I doubt Lattimore goes before the compensatories at the end of the 3rd. Too much risk involved. Don't forget, NFL teams look beyond just "is he healthy now?" but also want some measure of comfort that he can stay healthy. Lattimore has not shown that ability. He's not as good a prospect as Willis McGahee was and his injury is far more severe than McGahee's (4 torn ligaments to 2), plus he's had another knee before this one.

Personally I would DND him if I were running a team. Some NFL teams will. Great kid but great risk.

[Worm Guts]

I have to believe at some point it becomes worth the risk. They're so good at repairing ACL's now, and considering how many 7th rounders get cut out of camp, I think it's gotta be worth the gamble at that point.

[Icness]

Someone will definitely take the risk. But he tore all four, and he tore the other ACL the year before. Spurrier ran him to death too. Seriously high risk there.

It is pretty cool/amazing the progress with ACL surgery and rehabilitation techniques. Not even a 10-month injury for RBs anymore when it used to wipe out 12 months and the following 12 months wouldn't be higher than about 85%.

[GYBE]

Hey Jeff-

Have you heard anything on Louis Nix III declaring? If he does, where do you think he goes off the board?

Not Ic obviously, but I've followed him closely. I'm not sure if he'll declare. On the one hand, I know nothing would make his mom happier than graduating from Notre Dame. On the other hand, from what I've heard, his family's situation badly needs some financial help.

Notre Dame has done a pretty good job of keeping high draft picks in school (Floyd and Te'o over the last two years for example). Selfishly, I hope he stays since he's so important to the defense.

As to where he goes, I really think he's a 1st rounder. Once people realize just how athletic he is as a nose tackle, I can't see him outside the first 30 picks. For whatever it's worth, WalterFootball has him going #23 in 2014. Another guy on that site, Charlie Campbell, has him at #13.