OT: Superbowl

[EvanZ]

The chiefs themselves admitted they had a plan and divulged that plan after the game because they actually prepared for it. Kyle didn't prepare for it at all. Half the niners didn't even know what the rules were in ot because they never even discussed it.

If you actually play out all scenarios possible before the game you'd realize all the advantages are to go 2nd. Just do basic game theory

Tell me what are the probabilities then Mr. Game Theory.

There's 4 options
Get a stop
Give up a fg
Give up a td
Give up a 2 point conversion (this is the only scenario where it would benefit the receiving team). This is the only thing that ensures getting a 3rd possession. Every other outcome benefits the team going 2nd.

These are not probabilities. They are events. You have to actually know the odds of everything to do this calculation.

"It's just something we talked about with, you know none of us had a ton of experience with it, but we went through all the analytics and talked to those guys and we decided it would be better — we wanted the ball third," Shanahan said of the 49ers' coin-toss decision. "If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones to have a chance to go win. We got that field goal so we knew we had to hold them to at least a field goal and if we did then we thought it was in our hands after that."

They wanted the ball on the third possession for a reason. If someone can actually present real numbers and not hand waiving that proves they were wrong, I'm open to it. I just haven't seen the numbers. I doubt anyone here has.

[Onus]

Tell me what are the probabilities then Mr. Game Theory.

There's 4 options
Get a stop
Give up a fg
Give up a td
Give up a 2 point conversion (this is the only scenario where it would benefit the receiving team). This is the only thing that ensures getting a 3rd possession. Every other outcome benefits the team going 2nd.

These are not probabilities. They are events. You have to actually know the odds of everything to do this calculation.

"It's just something we talked about with, you know none of us had a ton of experience with it, but we went through all the analytics and talked to those guys and we decided it would be better — we wanted the ball third," Shanahan said of the 49ers' coin-toss decision. "If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones to have a chance to go win. We got that field goal so we knew we had to hold them to at least a field goal and if we did then we thought it was in our hands after that."

They wanted the ball on the third possession for a reason. If someone can actually present real numbers and not hand waiving that proves they were wrong, I'm open to it. I just haven't seen the numbers. I doubt anyone here has.

There are no numbers for it because this is the first time it's happened in the playoffs with the new rules. So asking for probabilities for something that has never happened is pointless.

Also Patrick Mahomes needing a td, with no time constraints, it goes to another period if time runs out, 3 time outs and knowing they have 4 downs to go down the field. Doesn't sound like a great probability.

Every single event gives an advantage to the 2nd team except the last one, which is the least probable. The Chiefs stated that they wanted the ball 2nd, and if they needed a td they were going for 2 to win the game.

[EvanZ]

There's 4 options
Get a stop
Give up a fg
Give up a td
Give up a 2 point conversion (this is the only scenario where it would benefit the receiving team). This is the only thing that ensures getting a 3rd possession. Every other outcome benefits the team going 2nd.

These are not probabilities. They are events. You have to actually know the odds of everything to do this calculation.

"It's just something we talked about with, you know none of us had a ton of experience with it, but we went through all the analytics and talked to those guys and we decided it would be better — we wanted the ball third," Shanahan said of the 49ers' coin-toss decision. "If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones to have a chance to go win. We got that field goal so we knew we had to hold them to at least a field goal and if we did then we thought it was in our hands after that."

They wanted the ball on the third possession for a reason. If someone can actually present real numbers and not hand waiving that proves they were wrong, I'm open to it. I just haven't seen the numbers. I doubt anyone here has.

There are no numbers for it because this is the first time it's happened in the playoffs with the new rules. So asking for probabilities for something that has never happened is pointless.

Right. Nobody knows. Not even you Mr. Game Theory.

[EvanZ]

There are known probabilities for going for it on fourth down. That's not really up for debate. In this situation we really don't have those probabilities so it is unknown. People can guess and make up all the numbers they want to support their narratives. But the fact is we just don't know.

[Onus]

There are known probabilities for going for it on fourth down. That's not really up for debate. In this situation we really don't have those probabilities so it is unknown. People can guess and make up all the numbers they want to support their narratives. But the fact is we just don't know.

You don't know.

Chiefs knew going 2nd was better. Tony Romo knew it was better to go 2nd. Hell even the AI chat bots tell you that it is now better to go 2nd in overtime.

Just you and Kyle didn't know.

[EvanZ]

There are known probabilities for going for it on fourth down. That's not really up for debate. In this situation we really don't have those probabilities so it is unknown. People can guess and make up all the numbers they want to support their narratives. But the fact is we just don't know.

You don't know.

Chiefs knew going 2nd was better. Tony Romo knew it was better to go 2nd. Hell even the AI chat bots tell you that it is now better to go 2nd in overtime.

Just you and Kyle didn't know.

You, me and Kyle. And his analytics team. And other stats nerds I've been talking to.

You know what would have happened if we deferred? Very likely Mahomes would have gotten the ball back on a third possession and won the game and you'd be here whining that Kyle deferred.

Also LMAO at using Tony Romo as some bastion of analytics credibility. Is he also Mr. Game Theory?

[Onus]

There are known probabilities for going for it on fourth down. That's not really up for debate. In this situation we really don't have those probabilities so it is unknown. People can guess and make up all the numbers they want to support their narratives. But the fact is we just don't know.

You don't know.

Chiefs knew going 2nd was better. Tony Romo knew it was better to go 2nd. Hell even the AI chat bots tell you that it is now better to go 2nd in overtime.

Just you and Kyle didn't know.

You, me and Kyle. And his analytics team. And other stats nerds I've been talking to.

You know what would have happened if we deferred? Very likely Mahomes would have gotten the ball back on a third possession and won the game and you'd be here whining that Kyle deferred.

Why would he get the ball back on a 3rd possession? The only way that happens is if both teams don't score and at that point you don't deserve to win anyway. Defense was gassed we weren't stopping them. So we have to get a td. We either get a td or we don't and then we go for 2 to win the game. Again going 2nd just gives you advantages.

[EvanZ]

You don't know.

Chiefs knew going 2nd was better. Tony Romo knew it was better to go 2nd. Hell even the AI chat bots tell you that it is now better to go 2nd in overtime.

Just you and Kyle didn't know.

You, me and Kyle. And his analytics team. And other stats nerds I've been talking to.

You know what would have happened if we deferred? Very likely Mahomes would have gotten the ball back on a third possession and won the game and you'd be here whining that Kyle deferred.

Why would he get the ball back on a 3rd possession? The only way that happens is if both teams don't score and at that point you don't deserve to win anyway. Defense was gassed we weren't stopping them. So we have to get a td. We either get a td or we don't and then we go for 2 to win the game. Again going 2nd just gives you advantages.

BINGO (both teams don't score or both score a FG or TD, several ways it can happen). It appears you literally just realized you weren't taking into account the odds of the game going to a third possession. Mr. Game Theory. Better alert Tony Romo.

[EvanZ]

I love the "at that point you don't deserve to win" as if that absolves you of having to worry about the laws of probability. lol

[Onus]

You, me and Kyle. And his analytics team. And other stats nerds I've been talking to.

You know what would have happened if we deferred? Very likely Mahomes would have gotten the ball back on a third possession and won the game and you'd be here whining that Kyle deferred.

Why would he get the ball back on a 3rd possession? The only way that happens is if both teams don't score and at that point you don't deserve to win anyway. Defense was gassed we weren't stopping them. So we have to get a td. We either get a td or we don't and then we go for 2 to win the game. Again going 2nd just gives you advantages.

BINGO (both teams don't score or both score a FG). It appears you literally just realized you weren't taking into account the odds of the game going to a third possession. Mr. Game Theory. Better alert Tony Romo.

LMAO we weren't stopping anyone so the probability of no one scoring shouldn't even go into your thought process. The defense was gassed and then them going on next most likely ends up in a td anyway. But then we get to go for it on 4th because it's the right football play, because then they actually have to go get a td.

[Onus]

I love the "at that point you don't deserve to win" as if that absolves you of having to worry about the laws of probability. lol

You think kc wasn't going to score if they didn't go first? Maybe you don't understand momentum, energy levels or watching the game.

[EvanZ]

I love the "at that point you don't deserve to win" as if that absolves you of having to worry about the laws of probability. lol

You think kc wasn't going to score if they didn't go first? Maybe you don't understand momentum, energy levels or watching the game.

It's not about what I think. It's about what the probabilities are. I am also going to argue that the "watching the game" part tells me the defense needed rest.

Either way, this was a subjective decision. You can argue Shanahan was wrong, but it's mostly hindsight, not using actual persuasive numerical logic.

[TB]

If the Niners got them to a manageable 4th down in niners territory the Chiefs would have likely kicked the field goal, thus giving Kyle his 3rd possession. So that was definitely in play.

I still think the biggest reason to go 2nd is the fact that the first team basically needs to get into FG range or they are forced to punt on 4th down not knowing what the other team has done. Hindsight again, but based on the drives we saw... Chiefs would have punted on 4th down, giving the niners the ball to win it with a FG. The niners were the only team to force a 4th down in OT... but it happened when Chiefs were in 4 down situation.

[HiRez]

Super Bowl: Several 49ers players admitted they didn't know new rules when OT started

Kansas City safety Justin Reid told The Ringer that the Chiefs had first discussed the new overtime rules as far back as training camp. Defensive lineman Chris Jones told me players were prepared for what to expect if the Super Bowl went to overtime.

“We talked through this for two weeks,” Jones said. “How we was going to give the ball to the opponent; if they scored, we was going for two at the end of the game. We rehearsed it.”

Just a brutal indictment of the coaching staff not preparing their team. What were these MFers going over for TWO WEEKS? Apart from the Chiefs not only knowing the rules, but apparently discussing the scenario since the beginning of the year.

They're not going to get rid of Shanahan but he makes a few critical mistakes that you cannot afford to make in a playoff game. He made several in this game. And I have no confidence it won't happen again with Shanahan in control, if they even ever make it back there.

[Onus]

Super Bowl: Several 49ers players admitted they didn't know new rules when OT started

Kansas City safety Justin Reid told The Ringer that the Chiefs had first discussed the new overtime rules as far back as training camp. Defensive lineman Chris Jones told me players were prepared for what to expect if the Super Bowl went to overtime.

“We talked through this for two weeks,” Jones said. “How we was going to give the ball to the opponent; if they scored, we was going for two at the end of the game. We rehearsed it.”

Just a brutal indictment of the coaching staff not preparing their team. What were these MFers going over for TWO WEEKS? Apart from the Chiefs not only knowing the rules, but apparently discussing the scenario since the beginning of the year.

They're not going to get rid of Shanahan but he makes a few critical mistakes that you cannot afford to make in a playoff game. He made several in this game. And I have no confidence it won't happen again with Shanahan in control, if they even ever make it make there.

Kyle fed everyone a line saying something about analytics and people ate it up. Knowing you have to use 4 downs is so much more powerful. The chiefs had to convert a 4th, maybe they punt if they had the ball first. The likelihood of a 3rd possession is so slim and they didn’t even guarantee themselves a 3rd possession.

The simple fact his players didn’t even know the rules means they didn’t prepare for this outcome. Anything he says otherwise is just CYA.

Also Kyle not going making it 4 down territory in the 4th when a first down essentially wins the game is another reason he’s never going to win. He’d rather put winning responsibility on the defense than on his offense. Get the first down and win the game. Instead of essentially kicking the game away.

[EvanZ]

Super Bowl: Several 49ers players admitted they didn't know new rules when OT started

Kansas City safety Justin Reid told The Ringer that the Chiefs had first discussed the new overtime rules as far back as training camp. Defensive lineman Chris Jones told me players were prepared for what to expect if the Super Bowl went to overtime.

“We talked through this for two weeks,” Jones said. “How we was going to give the ball to the opponent; if they scored, we was going for two at the end of the game. We rehearsed it.”

Just a brutal indictment of the coaching staff not preparing their team. What were these MFers going over for TWO WEEKS? Apart from the Chiefs not only knowing the rules, but apparently discussing the scenario since the beginning of the year.

They're not going to get rid of Shanahan but he makes a few critical mistakes that you cannot afford to make in a playoff game. He made several in this game. And I have no confidence it won't happen again with Shanahan in control, if they even ever make it make there.

Kyle fed everyone a line saying something about analytics and people ate it up. Knowing you have to use 4 downs is so much more powerful. The chiefs had to convert a 4th, maybe they punt if they had the ball first. The likelihood of a 3rd possession is so slim and they didn’t even guarantee themselves a 3rd possession.

And yet you can't actually tell anyone how much more because you simply don't know. If you knew, you'd tell us. Think about it. What you're saying is that the one extra down is more important than an entire possession. Not clear at all that's true. I certainly don't know. You don't know. Maybe Kyle doesn't know either but he's the one who had to make the call. Just accept it like a big boy.

[Onus]

Super Bowl: Several 49ers players admitted they didn't know new rules when OT started


Just a brutal indictment of the coaching staff not preparing their team. What were these MFers going over for TWO WEEKS? Apart from the Chiefs not only knowing the rules, but apparently discussing the scenario since the beginning of the year.

They're not going to get rid of Shanahan but he makes a few critical mistakes that you cannot afford to make in a playoff game. He made several in this game. And I have no confidence it won't happen again with Shanahan in control, if they even ever make it make there.

Kyle fed everyone a line saying something about analytics and people ate it up. Knowing you have to use 4 downs is so much more powerful. The chiefs had to convert a 4th, maybe they punt if they had the ball first. The likelihood of a 3rd possession is so slim and they didn’t even guarantee themselves a 3rd possession.

And yet you can't actually tell anyone how much more because you simply don't know. If you knew, you'd tell us. Think about it. What you're saying is that the one extra down is more important than an entire possession. Not clear at all that's true. I certainly don't know. You don't know. Maybe Kyle doesn't know either but he's the one who had to make the call. Just accept it like a big boy.

Yea that entire possession that never materialized was really important.

[EvanZ]

Literally just told on yourself.

[superunknown]

shanahan is a chocker. this ain't probabilities or events, it's facts. he always finds ways to lose games or to put the team in a position to lose.

[Onus]

Literally just told on yourself.

LMAO at backing kyle after this. Kyle looking at college stats to get his information. LMAO

Completely unprepared.