Jays Minor League Affiliate/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Holmes]

Davis Romero is gone for the season FYI.

[Michael Bradley]

Ryan Patterson broke his arm a little while ago, so he's going to be out a few months as well.

[Raptorsrock]

Pitchers:
1) Ricky Romero, LHP (soft tosser - but great changeup, lacks an 'out' pitch)
2) Dustin McGowan, RHP (great stuff, poor command - potential to be a top starter - getting old for a prospect)
3) Francisco Rosario, RHP (out of options - most likely will be traded)
4) David Purcey, LHP (unbelievable stuff - but I've heard of a problem in his delivery, leading to poor command)
5) Chi-hung Cheng, LHP (Never actually seen him play, but he sounds intriguing - hopefully someone has more info)

Hope this is a start.

So out of your top 5, one is designated for assignment and probably won't pitch for the Jays again and another has just had shoulder surgery.

So that's not a good start at all

[rdua]

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So out of your top 5, one is designated for assignment and probably won't pitch for the Jays again and another has just had shoulder surgery.

So that's not a good start at all

To be fair, I did write that Rosario will be most likely be traded and hopefully we can obtain someone of similar value in return. And if your referring to Cheng having surgery, I thought he was already throwing? Surgery certainly doesn't take him off the prospect list does it?

Obviously, our farm is not our organizations strength at the moment. I was just merely giving my opinion on some of the prospects at someone's request.

Hopefully it is the START of a much more in-depth look at some of our prospects.

[-MetA4-]

In my opinion rdua's pitching list is a bit outdated. What I mean is: counting Rosario as a "prospect" this late is stretching it, McGowan is getting up there too. Cheng had surgery on a torn labrum and he'll be out for the year (you're looking at probably the most devastating pitcher injury in today's game - who knows if he even comes back anywhere near normal). Purcey is on his last string before gaining bust status, his control has gone nowhere ever since being drafted.

In my opinion its time to start looking at the next batch of pitching prospects...guys like Magee, Litsch, etc. Two to watch for are Ginley and Lirette down in Lansing. Both were drafted last year (rounds 16 and 17 I believe off the top of my head) as players who ended up falling on draft day due to signing worries. On pure talent both would have gone quite a bit higher, we were able to snag them (along with a few others - Graham Godfrey being one) and sign them to 6-figure deals (pretty big money for kids taken in that range). Ginley is a pure power arm, throws mid 90's consistently and is only 20 years old if I remember correctly (signed out of JUCO). Last year after being drafted he spent time in the bullpen (didn't want to throw him out in the rotation after he just finished a college season) and he ended up striking out 40-something batters in only 20-something innings (cant remember the actual numbers but it was just under a 2 to 1 K:IP ratio). He had some control issues but for a young power pitcher thats expected. Lirette doesn't have as overpowering stuff but I believe his secondary stuff is better (as is his control). He had some good success after being signed as well, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 40 IP (37 strikeouts and just 7 walks). Posted under a 1.00 WHIP.

[-MetA4-]

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Incorrect. The former BJ team in Pulaski was a rookie league team which no longer exists. Snider will be playing in Low A Lansing of the Midwest league.

Yeah just realized I totally got the two mixed up again. I've never been able to get the two perfectly separate, although with Pulaski being gone it should get easier now.

[rdua]

In my opinion rdua's pitching list is a bit outdated. What I mean is: counting Rosario as a "prospect" this late is stretching it, McGowan is getting up there too. Cheng had surgery on a torn labrum and he'll be out for the year (you're looking at probably the most devastating pitcher injury in today's game - who knows if he even comes back anywhere near normal). Purcey is on his last string before gaining bust status, his control has gone nowhere ever since being drafted.

In my opinion its time to start looking at the next batch of pitching prospects...guys like Magee, Litsch, etc. Two to watch for are Ginley and Lirette down in Lansing. Both were drafted last year (rounds 16 and 17 I believe off the top of my head) as players who ended up falling on draft day due to signing worries. On pure talent both would have gone quite a bit higher, we were able to snag them (along with a few others - Graham Godfrey being one) and sign them to 6-figure deals (pretty big money for kids taken in that range). Ginley is a pure power arm, throws mid 90's consistently and is only 20 years old if I remember correctly (signed out of JUCO). Last year after being drafted he spent time in the bullpen (didn't want to throw him out in the rotation after he just finished a college season) and he ended up striking out 40-something batters in only 20-something innings (cant remember the actual numbers but it was just under a 2 to 1 K:IP ratio). He had some control issues but for a young power pitcher thats expected. Lirette doesn't have as overpowering stuff but I believe his secondary stuff is better (as is his control). He had some good success after being signed as well, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 40 IP (37 strikeouts and just 7 walks). Posted under a 1.00 WHIP.

I agree some of these are stretching their "prospect" tags. I guess its still hopeful thinking. I still have hopes for McGowan especially, I think JP was wrong in trying to take these college 'ready' players.

Still a weak farm system to say the least though. I agree with Magee and Litsch as well, the organization will definately need to turn toward these guys if some of the earlier picks aren't panning out.

The question is, at what point do you just give up on a guy? I think giving up on Rosario may turn out to be a mistake. Accardo I believe still has an option available and although I don't put a lot of merit into spring training, he was thoroughly outperformed by Rosario.

[-MetA4-]

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The question is, at what point do you just give up on a guy? I think giving up on Rosario may turn out to be a mistake.

Thats always been the big question. We (as fans) often have a lot of trouble accepting the reality which is why we continually look down upon parting ways with high profiled prospects who havn't developed as expected, especially ones with unique abilities. I remember a ton of people were pissed when we let Guillermo Quiroz go, Josh Phelps as well. You always have the thought stuck in the back of your mind that these guys will go elsewhere and then finally live up to the hype - it does happen; look at Bobby Jenks...let go by the Angels (I believe) and ends up becoming a very good closer for the White Socks after FINALLY gaining control of his fastball. With most of these guys you just get to a point where you realize that it simply isn't meant to be with our organization, Rosario is almost 27 years old now...the probability of him magically learning how to throw a strike at this point is slim to none. Sure, a change of scenery could prompt a total miracle to happen, but I really dont think that will happen with the Blue Jays.

[rdua]

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With most of these guys you just get to a point where you realize that it simply isn't meant to be with our organization, Rosario is almost 27 years old now...the probability of him magically learning how to throw a strike at this point is slim to none. Sure, a change of scenery could prompt a total miracle to happen, but I really dont think that will happen with the Blue Jays.

Definitely, I respect your opinion regarding Rosario. I still think Rosario would have been a better addition than Accardo (this season anyways). But could be wishful thinking on my part.

What's your outlook on McGowan? Supposedly, they've found a flaw in his mechanics and think he could turn it around. I remember Halladay having a problem like this a few years back, and obviously we know how he turned out. I'm not comparing him to Halladay by any means, but still feel he could turn out to be a solid 2 or 3.

[Michael Bradley]

-= original quote snipped =-With most of these guys you just get to a point where you realize that it simply isn't meant to be with our organization, Rosario is almost 27 years old now...the probability of him magically learning how to throw a strike at this point is slim to none. Sure, a change of scenery could prompt a total miracle to happen, but I really dont think that will happen with the Blue Jays.

How did you conclude that any success Rosario may have will be based on divine intervention, and that the probability of that happening is slim to none? He had excellent ratios in AAA last season and struggled in his first exposure to the big leagues (he still had a 8.22 K/9). That's enough to write him off completely?

Jason Frasor was 26 out of AA when the Jays put him in the MLB bullpen. He couldn't throw consistent strikes either. Now he's a very solid MLB reliever. The list is endless of 25+ year olds who never got a break but broke out later in their careers. Hell, how many 22-23 year old relievers do you see out there? A good percentage of relievers are likely failed starters, which Rosario likely falls into at this point.

It was a mistake, whether Rosario pans out or not (obviously it will be bigger if he does pan out). Accardo had options left. He was shelled in his first exposure to the AL last season and wasn't remarkably better in ST (I don't think he was better at all other than for BB rate). He's only a year and a half younger than Rosario. The smart thing to do would have been to keep Rosario and put Accardo in AAA. Then if Rosario craps the bed, the Jays can drop him and still have Accardo as a fallback. Now if Accardo doesn't pan out, where's Rosario? Probably in Philly.

Giving up an arm like Rosario for nothing, and a player like Quiroz for nothing (just so the team can spend $5.0 million on an overweight catcher who can't hit RHP) are not good moves. Sure, maybe those players don't pan out. But you have to look at the situation clearly.

[OldNo7]

I found that relievers in general are much older than starting pitchers, especially coming out of the minors.

[-MetA4-]

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Sure, maybe those players don't pan out. But you have to look at the situation clearly.

Look at the situation clearly? Both Rosario and Quiroz were signed as under-20 free agents, in other words, they've been in our minor league system for almost 10 YEARS now (Rosario was signed in 1999). When you've been in the system for 8 years and you're STILL a fringe major leaguer who STILL cant control his pitches then I honestly dont see what else you're holding out for. Rosario is a good arm, but the guy isn't throwing 110MPH fastballs or anything extraordinary. As stupid as it may sound, guys who throw 96-97mph with little to no control aren't THAT rare. If we let him go then so what? We've got Purcey in the minors who is Rosario version 2.0: great arm, great stuff, no control. Both are going to be destined to bullpen roles. You already mentioned Accardo, his arm is almost as good as Rosario's but you fail to realize that despite his age he is still considerably younger than Rosario in pitchers years. Accardo was converted into a pitcher something like halfway through his collegiate career, so even though he is 25 there is still potential for improvement from him because he literally just recently started pitching. Quiroz flat out couldn't hit after all the injuries he had and whats he done after we let him go? He got signed by the Mariners and they too proceeded to release him....the guy just didn't have what it takes, period.

I never said I agreed with it, just that theres absolutely no reason why we should continue listing a 27 year old who isn't even going to be with the team much longer as a Top 5 pitching prospect. I'd personally keep Rosario, but if the management really think he's just wasting a roster spot then I'm fine with parting ways. The guy's arm isn't good enough for me to get to a point where I'm willing to waste a roster spot just so that we can nurture a 27 year old who still cant control his stuff.

[Michael Bradley]

-= original quote snipped =-Look at the situation clearly? Both Rosario and Quiroz were signed as under-20 free agents, in other words, they've been in our minor league system for almost 10 YEARS now (Rosario was signed in 1999). When you've been in the system for 8 years and you're STILL a fringe major leaguer who STILL cant control his pitches then I honestly dont see what else you're holding out for. Rosario is a good arm, but the guy isn't throwing 110MPH fastballs or anything extraordinary. As stupid as it may sound, guys who throw 96-97mph with little to no control aren't THAT rare. If we let him go then so what? We've got Purcey in the minors who is Rosario version 2.0: great arm, great stuff, no control. Both are going to be destined to bullpen roles. You already mentioned Accardo, his arm is almost as good as Rosario's but you fail to realize that despite his age he is still considerably younger than Rosario in pitchers years. Accardo was converted into a pitcher something like halfway through his collegiate career, so even though he is 25 there is still potential for improvement from him because he literally just recently started pitching. Quiroz flat out couldn't hit after all the injuries he had and whats he done after we let him go? He got signed by the Mariners and they too proceeded to release him....the guy just didn't have what it takes, period.

I never said I agreed with it, just that theres absolutely no reason why we should continue listing a 27 year old who isn't even going to be with the team much longer as a Top 5 pitching prospect. I'd personally keep Rosario, but if the management really think he's just wasting a roster spot then I'm fine with parting ways. The guy's arm isn't good enough for me to get to a point where I'm willing to waste a roster spot just so that we can nurture a 27 year old who still cant control his stuff.

I don't understand your "under 20" argument. Kelvim Escobar was signed in 1992 (age 17) and didn't become a good pitcher until 2001 (age 25). There are tons of examples like that. Just because a player is signed at a young age, it doesn't mean he's supposed to pan out years before a regular player would. Physical maturity is age related, not necessarily experience related.

Rosario started out strong in 2002. Missed all of 2003 with surgery. Came back in 2004. Battled injuries and inconsistency in 2005. Really started to pan out (in the minors) in 2006. That's not an uncommon path. Dustin McGowan is going through something similar, and it remains to be seen if he pans out. I'd be just as upset if the team kept Marcum over McGowan this year, for example (Jays lucked out getting an extra option year with Dustin).

The situation has to be looked at clearly. Accardo has options left and he did very little to prove he's an MLB reliever (at least in the AL). Rosario is the same except he doesn't have options left and his stuff and upside is better than Accardo's. Where's the rocket science here? Keep the guy with no options left and take advantage of Accardo's options. How many 22-year old relievers are out there right now? Most relievers are older because they are generally failed starters who didn't develop as expected. Or maybe they were relievers who went under the radar for many years. It happens. Saying that Rosario can't develop because he's 26, despite the fact that he's coming off the best K/9, BB/9, H/9, and HR/9 since his A-ball stints, is a bit premature.

As for Quiroz, he hit .304/.359/.428 in AAA last season, but didn't get any playing time for Seattle. He's still only 25. The smart thing to do would have been to platoon Zaun with Quiroz last season, and save the $5.0 million that was given to Bengie Molina to be an offensive sinkhole against RHP. Again, Quiroz isn't/wasn't a guarantee to pan out, but it was the smart fiscal decision to make. Losing guys like Rosario, Gaudin, Quiroz, Lyon, etc, due to options while keeping Accardo, Pete Walker, Molina, etc, in place of them is very short-sighted, IMO.

[rdua]

Again, I have to agree. Letting Rosario leave could turn out to be costly. Accardo is yet to prove himself and still has options available. I didn't see the logic behind management's decision here. I give management the benefit of the doubt because they have the advantage of seeing him work everyday, but from an outsiders perspective it didn't look wise.

It could be the failed starter argument, but regardless its true that relievers often tend to be on the older side of 'prospect'. I somewhat compare them to bigmen in the NBA; often it just takes them longer to have everything click. It could be pressure, overthrowing...a number of things. More than anything, poor control can often be attributed to poor mechanics or the mental aspect of game. Halladay had this problem in the past as did Brad Lidge in '06.

Here's hoping the Jays staff 'gets it' more often than not in '07.

[-MetA4-]

The smart thing to do would have been to platoon Zaun with Quiroz last season, and save the $5.0 million that was given to Bengie Molina to be an offensive sinkhole against RHP. Again, Quiroz isn't/wasn't a guarantee to pan out, but it was the smart fiscal decision to make. Losing guys like Rosario, Gaudin, Quiroz, Lyon, etc, due to options while keeping Accardo, Pete Walker, Molina, etc, in place of them is very short-sighted, IMO.

We were pushing for a playoff spot, theres absolutely zero room on the roster to carry completely useless players like Quiroz. Why dont the Yankees or Red Sox ever carry complete busts who cant contribute anything to the actual team on their active roster? We aren't the Yankees or Red Sox but we're playing for the same thing, and thats a playoff spot. Molina vs. Quiroz isn't even a comparison, no matter how badly everyone talks down Molina he was still 100x a better option in a PLATOON catching situation than Quiroz ever would have been. You're not seriously trying to tell me that we were going to make a playoff push last year with Quiroz splitting games with Zaun?

[Bleeding Green]

Curtis Thigpen mashes lefties.

Last year:

RHP: 318 AB, 68 K, .217/.313/.336
LHP: 132 AB, 16 K, .394/.491/.659

[rdua]

Quiroz definitely would not have be able to split time with Zaun last season. As much as I disliked Molina last season he contributed more than Quiroz ever could have.

I think the evaluation period for a pitcher and postional player is entirely different. Quiroz struggled both defensively and offensively in his stint with the big club. From that standpoint, Phillips also may not a be huge talent, but at least he'll be able to have a veteran presence until the arrival of Thigpen. Quiroz couldn't have contributed anything last season, he had to be released.

[Michael Bradley]

-= original quote snipped =-We were pushing for a playoff spot, theres absolutely zero room on the roster to carry completely useless players like Quiroz. Why dont the Yankees or Red Sox ever carry complete busts who cant contribute anything to the actual team on their active roster? We aren't the Yankees or Red Sox but we're playing for the same thing, and thats a playoff spot. Molina vs. Quiroz isn't even a comparison, no matter how badly everyone talks down Molina he was still 100x a better option in a PLATOON catching situation than Quiroz ever would have been. You're not seriously trying to tell me that we were going to make a playoff push last year with Quiroz splitting games with Zaun?

That depends. How would the Jays have spent the extra $5.0 million they saved from not signing Bengie Molina? You also could have said "You're not seriously trying to tell me that we were going to make a playoff push last year with Rios splitting games with Hinske?" The Jays couldn't afford a sub-.700 OPS out of RF either. Fortunately, they stuck with Rios and they got much better than that.

Molina hit .246/.286/.389 against RHP last season, and 66% of his total AB's were against RHP. He killed lefties (.998 OPS) though. No, Quiroz would not have hit that well in a platoon role, but that would just mean giving more AB's to Zaun, who happened to play well last season. Keeping Quiroz was not the equivalent of having Josh Towers start 11 games. It wouldn't have been that detrimental to the team. He would have been a back-up to Zaun. It's basically what the team will do with Thigpen as early as this summer.

More importantly, the Jays could have kept Quiroz in the minors by simply keeping him on the opening day roster and then sending him back down when everyone else's rosters were set (like the Mariners did). They didn't even do that. They just dropped him outright.

For a team with a struggling farm system, it's hard to justify losing Quiroz, Gaudin, and Rosario for nothing in a span of one year. They aren't huge impact players, and in Quiroz and Rosario's case they may not become players at all, but you can use that logic for anyone. We could have dropped Rios last year and people would have said the same thing.

[aligator]

None of Quiroz, Gaudin or Roario is likely to matter one way or the other to the success of the Jays. Releasing Q was a no brainer. He played terribly here and everywhere else since. Gaudin was awful and showed no reason why he should be retained. Yes, in hindsight he did ok with the A's but I doubt he keeps that up. He has less potential than the young guys in our pen. As for Rosario, he has good stuff but can't command it. Pushing age 27, it is time to cut bait. I heard an interview with Zaun shortly after the designation in which he suggested that Accardo had better stuff, better command and a better head than Rosario. He should know.

[Michael Bradley]

None of Quiroz, Gaudin or Roario is likely to matter one way or the other to the success of the Jays. Releasing Q was a no brainer. He played terribly here and everywhere else since. Gaudin was awful and showed no reason why he should be retained. Yes, in hindsight he did ok with the A's but I doubt he keeps that up. He has less potential than the young guys in our pen. As for Rosario, he has good stuff but can't command it. Pushing age 27, it is time to cut bait. I heard an interview with Zaun shortly after the designation in which he suggested that Accardo had better stuff, better command and a better head than Rosario. He should know.

Quiroz played "terrible" everywhere else by hitting over .300 in AAA last season (he got about 2 ab's in Seattle), and Gaudin did terrible in Toronto by putting up VERY good numbers in AAA at age 22 (as a starter), then going out and doing decent in Oakland (bad walk rate but he's still young). Rosario stinks because "Zaun said so" (Zaun was also frustrated with Miguel Batista, and Batista went out and threw 200 very effective innings last season). Same thing I heard last year when I tried to suggest that letting Dave Bush go was a mistake. All I heard was "he's a 5 starter" or "he's not good enough to be in the rotation". Funny since he'd be the unanimous 3rd starter on the Jays this year for around $400,000. At least we got Overbay for him.

It's no wonder Beane gets these cheap effective guys for nothing while the Jays are the ones letting them go. It's the mentality, I guess. Yes, these guys are "role players" (though Gaudin could have been and might be more), but they still represent assets.

I guess we'll just agree to disagree.