WEEK 5: Patriots host Bengals, Sun. Oct 5th, 8:30 PM

[Parliament10]

Bengals vs. Patriots, Sunday Night Football: Odds, preview, prediction
By OddsShark on Oct 3 2014

http://www.sbnation.com/odds/2014/10/3/ ... prediction

The New England Patriots are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog. The Patriots will be in that role for just the second time since 2005 this Sunday night when they host the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati is a one-point favorite heading into New England at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. New England's recent struggles and Cincinnati's sound play on both sides of the ball point to the Bengals as a solid pick at -1, even on the road in this one.

The Cincinnati Bengals are off to a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS start to the season and have had a bye week to prepare for a struggling New England Patriots team. Cincinnati is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine regular season games overall and has allowed just 11 points per game this season while scoring 26.7 per game. Cincinnati passed its first road test of the year at Baltimore and will face another hostile environment on Sunday.

OddsShark Computer Prediction: Cincinnati 36.2, New England 28.2

Patriots have seldom lost two in a row.

In fact, name the last three times that we've lost two in a row, in the Brady Era?

[Parliament10]

Cameron Fleming, Nate Ebner ruled out for Sunday night
Published: October 03, 2014 04:31 PM

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports ... -night.ece

FOXBORO — Both offensive lineman Cameron Fleming and defensive back Nate Ebner have been officially ruled out for Sunday night’s game against the Bengals with finger injuries....

Defensive lineman Dominique Easley was added to the injury report with a knee injury; the rookie is questionable. Linebackers Jamie Collins (thigh) and Dont’a Hightower (knee), end Chandler Jones (shoulder) and cornerback Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder) are also listed as questionable for the game against Cincinnati. That quintet was all limited at practice Friday.

Tight end Rob Gronkowski is probable; he participated fully in practice all week.

Brandon Browner, Brian Tyms working to get in football shape
Published: October 03, 2014 03:06 PM

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports ... -shape.ece

FOXBORO — Both Brandon Browner and Brian Tyms are back from their four-game suspensions and practicing with the Patriots. It remains to be seen whether they’re active on Sunday night against the Bengals.

In order to activate either the cornerback Browner or the receiver Tyms, the Patriots would have to make a corresponding move with their 53-man roster. (New England has a roster exemption for the two that runs out on Monday.)

[truth18]

Massacre. We are going to lose two in a row, I'm sure of it. First time for everything I guess.

Smh

[truth18]

Thompkins waived.

[Geoffrey P]

I'm not supposed to swear but the time is right and what the **** is wrong with this team/what the hell are they doing.

And also Browner/Tyms aren't even activated for Sunday. This team is going to get freaking creamed.

I like how this article says "Dobson, the team's second-round draft choice from 2013, has only played in one game this season, and Thompkins' release potentially will create more opportunity for him." What a crock. He'll get what, a whole 5 more snaps?

This team man. Way to really piss away Brady's last years.

[truth18]

What makes it worse is that Dobson was benched for mouthing off at Josh McDaniels. He has every reason to mouth off at McDaniels, he's a terrible OC. Ridiculous.

Are you supposed to use profane language as a mod, Geoff? My ban from the gb was partially because of that, lol.

[Geoffrey P]

Eh not supposed to use it too much. Before I was I got warned on the GB for calling someone a moron. That was the end of me being on the GB.

But seriously this team is terrible on offense and then you take away one guy who is supposed to be able to get down the field and did decent last year?

What about AMENDOLA? The guy's almost like Keith Bogans except he's actually playing some. God I LOVE that $5 year, $29 million contract. FOL.

[Parliament10]

Eh not supposed to use it too much. Before I was I got warned on the GB for calling someone a moron. That was the end of me being on the GB.

But seriously this team is terrible on offense and then you take away one guy who is supposed to be able to get down the field and did decent last year?

What about AMENDOLA? The guy's almost like Keith Bogans except he's actually playing some. God I LOVE that $5 year, $29 million contract. FOL.

Really, Amendola needs to get in there, among some other sidelined players; Tyms, etc.

[15th overall]

I actually think this has the feeling of a redemption game. Bengals will do something Bengalish when the game's on the line, Marv will be sure of it. Cincinnati looks damn good, but I've seen this episode before.

Get Dobson on the effin field. There's no way he's more useless than James White.

[Captain_Caveman]

The thing about this game is that the Bengals might be a better team even if we were playing well.

I thought we were the 3rd best team until a week or two ago, but now I think it just might be them.

Tomorrow will help to answer that, but damn, if this were a road game, we'd be in some seeeerious ****.

[grindtime22]

if this were a road game, we'd be in some seeeerious ****.

I think the Patriots actually win this game

Its at home which is huge. I really don't think this Bengals team is all that different from last year. Everybody is already anointing the Bengals as the best team in football after 3 games. Meanwhile, they have only played 1 road game and they could have easily lost that game. The Bengals are a juggernaut at home and that is the team everybody has in their minds right now. Remember, we haven't seen them play on the road since week 1.

Last year they were 8-0 at home with a +141 point differential. 7 of the 8 were by a touchdown or more and 6 of the 8 were double digits. They were every bit as dominant at home as the Seahawks or Saints. Meanwhile, they were 3-5 on the road with a -16 point differential. Their 3 road wins they were by 3, 3, and 7 points. Their defense is elite, but Andy Dalton hasn't really traveled well. His rating last year was 98.3 at home and 80.8 on the road.

Its simply a much different team on the road. Yes the Ravens win (week 1) was a good one, but they were outgained 423-380 and had 16 1st downs to the Ravens 26. They were completely dominated in the 2nd half of that game until the AJ Green bomb.

Patriots off a loss are almost always on point and I think they will have a good game plan for this one. Perception after that monday night game is that the Patriots absolutely blow, but we have already seen a number of teams bounce back off these prime time losses. Tampa Bay after being killed by the Falcons? Pittsburgh after being dominated by the Ravens.

Perception is rarely reality when it comes to the NFL. One game a week makes people take extreme views after a game. The Bengals are a really good team, but I don't think they are at the top. Even if they are taking a step back, the Patriots certainly not as bad as they showed Monday night.

[Captain_Caveman]

if this were a road game, we'd be in some seeeerious ****.

I think the Patriots actually win this game

Its at home which is huge. I really don't think this Bengals team is all that different from last year. Everybody is already anointing the Bengals as the best team in football after 3 games. Meanwhile, they have only played 1 road game and they could have easily lost that game. The Bengals are a juggernaut at home and that is the team everybody has in their minds right now. Remember, we haven't seen them play on the road since week 1.

Last year they were 8-0 at home with a +141 point differential. 7 of the 8 were by a touchdown or more and 6 of the 8 were double digits. They were every bit as dominant at home as the Seahawks or Saints. Meanwhile, they were 3-5 on the road with a -16 point differential. Their 3 road wins they were by 3, 3, and 7 points. Their defense is elite, but Andy Dalton hasn't really traveled well. His rating last year was 98.3 at home and 80.8 on the road.

Its simply a much different team on the road. Yes the Ravens win (week 1) was a good one, but they were outgained 423-380 and had 16 1st downs to the Ravens 26. They were completely dominated in the 2nd half of that game until the AJ Green bomb.

Patriots off a loss are almost always on point and I think they will have a good game plan for this one. Perception after that monday night game is that the Patriots absolutely blow, but we have already seen a number of teams bounce back off these prime time losses. Tampa Bay after being killed by the Falcons? Pittsburgh after being dominated by the Ravens.

Perception is rarely reality when it comes to the NFL. One game a week makes people take extreme views after a game. The Bengals are a really good team, but I don't think they are at the top. Even if they are taking a step back, the Patriots certainly not as bad as they showed Monday night.

I hear you, but even coming into the year, I had Cincy, SD and Philly pegged as teams who could make the leap. Obviously a lot of people saw either or both of the Niners and Panthers slipping, which I think is true but overstated.

In sum, don't think there is much gap in teams 3-13 which probably includes in no real order Cincy, NE, SF, Indy, SD, Colts, Carolina, GB, Arizona, Batimore and NO.

It's pretty wide open this year, I think.

As to the Pats, they always tend to start slow, and not troubled by their being 2-2 so much as how. Weak schedule, totally dysfunctional offense despite playing a bunch of highly injured defenses and haven't even shown up for some or all of these games. Tomorrow should tell us a lot about the Pats spirit, because they know they are in the deep weeds now. Another performance like the last two and I am hitting the panic button, I think.

[KamikazeK]

What makes it worse is that Dobson was benched for mouthing off at Josh McDaniels. He has every reason to mouth off at McDaniels, he's a terrible OC. Ridiculous.

Are you supposed to use profane language as a mod, Geoff? My ban from the gb was partially because of that, lol.

Actually to be fair, Belichick came out with a statement denying that report. I don't think it's true.

With that said, I am cautiously optimistic about this game. I really hope they manage to turn it around, and given their track record I have confidence that they will. I look forward to the game.

[truth18]

What makes it worse is that Dobson was benched for mouthing off at Josh McDaniels. He has every reason to mouth off at McDaniels, he's a terrible OC. Ridiculous.

Are you supposed to use profane language as a mod, Geoff? My ban from the gb was partially because of that, lol.

Actually to be fair, Belichick came out with a statement denying that report. I don't think it's true.

With that said, I am cautiously optimistic about this game. I really hope they manage to turn it around, and given their track record I have confidence that they will. I look forward to the game.

Then why isnt Dobson playing? He's not injured? Belichick is just incompetent now? I don't think so, I buy the McDaniels story

[LarryBirdsFingr]

Bill reminds me of that one guy in your fantasy league who tries to pick a bunch of random lower tier guys in hopes they become a bargain basement value.

I'm tired of bargain basement football

[Ben-N1ce]

They will not be winning 32 regular season home games in a row against AFC opponents

[cloverleaf]

BB isn't perfect, but he's pretty darned good.

I think he looked at Brady's last three years of steadily declining numbers and candidly told Kraft that a) the championship window was closed on the Brady era, and b) he thought there really was a chance Jimmy G. could grow into their next franchise quarterback. Kraft IMO smartly gave BB the go-ahead to start working on the next great era.

For Celtics fans, I suspect Danny Ainge did something similar a year before the rebuild in Boston, but Grousbeck was more the sentimental fan, and he wouldn't let Danny start the rebuild without a spectacularly one-sided trade. The cost of that one year delay was the C's getting less for their diminishing assets and taking on several long-term contracts that didn't make sense for their actual situation.

The Patriots IMO have timed it perfectly, got themselves a real gem in Jimmy G., and are managing their franchise to maximize their total championship opportunities.

[truth18]

Clover, Jimmy is completely unproven. And I don't think he is a piece of our long terms plans. BB would trade Brady if he thought that era was over, he's not the kind of coach that would do anything you suggested. At least I hope not.

You sound way too optimistic. I LOVE Belichick but he's made mistakes this year, and a long term mistake in keeping McDaniels here for so long.

We don't have a gem in Jim, we have a decent qb who might be better than that. We may or may not find out depending on how we rebuild/reload.

Things are not good for the Pats right now and will only get worse tonight.

[cloverleaf]

Clover, Jimmy is completely unproven. And I don't think he is a piece of our long terms plans. BB would trade Brady if he thought that era was over, he's not the kind of coach that would do anything you suggested. At least I hope not.

You sound way too optimistic. I LOVE Belichick but he's made mistakes this year, and a long term mistake in keeping McDaniels here for so long.

We don't have a gem in Jim, we have a decent qb who might be better than that. We may or may not find out depending on how we rebuild/reload.

Things are not good for the Pats right now and will only get worse tonight.

Of course he's completely unproven--they just drafted him, and we just disagree--I think Jimmy is a gem and the Pats' future.

There's absolutely no reason for the Pats to trade Brady now:

-- he's cheap and it's not until the end of the year that the rest of his contract becomes guaranteed,
--there's always a chance that he'll somehow turn around his slide and be good for this or another year,
--Jimmy needs at least a year of seasoning before he's ready to start,
--they're just now finding out with more certainty what they have in Jimmy (and 37yi Brady), and
--it'll probably take this full year for Pats fans to catch up Brady being too far past his prime.

But I think arguably the Pats have made a couple of hard decisions around the QB question, such as not paying Mankins and starting a couple of rookies up front to get them the seasoning they need as well. Those sorts of moves look like a team that is thinking ahead.

That said, I think their front line will gel for Brady around midseason, as so many of the Pats teams typically do. If the Pats can put it together otherwise, I think Brady will end up with better protection by the season's end than he would have had, had they stuck with the declining vets around him.

Yeah, I'm ready to move on from McDaniels as well.

[Parliament10]

Is Brady done? -- Probably not.

Is he on the decline? -- Hell Yeah!
Brady has been "off" and declining for the past 3 years.

At some point, he will be replaced.
But probably Not now.

Brady's accuracy isn't the only problem on this team.

The Defense -- Dismal.
The Offense -- Abysmal.
Coaching? -- Well, that's the Real problem...isn't it?