NFL's investigative report

[Marley2Hendrix]

Here's the official report, the text messages are beyond enjoyable to read:

https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/investigative-and-expert-reports-re-footballs-used-during-afc-championsh.pdf



*10,000 : 1 that the Pat's low fumble rates over the last 5 years due to chance alone.

My reaction on the NFL forum I frequent(sorry, not trying to Troll as I'm a Packer fan, but I'm genuinely intrigued by this story):

Wow. One has to wonder, if Brady is so non-nonchalant about engaging in this kind of business (and his texts telling his co-conspirator to chill), what other occasions has he tiptoed around obvious ethical/professional issues. Unquestionably still an excellent qb, but like McGuire and Sosa, I can't help but feel that this drastically changes his legacy among educated fans. Very eager to hear the discipline that comes out of this. Four game suspension seems like a minimum, and given NE's reluctance to allow the follow-up interview with one of the co-conspirators and unwillingness with Brady's electronic devices, it would seem appropriate for them to be penalized in some fashion (particularly given their relatively recent past misgivings).

I haven't looked to much (fine, just loaded up grantland), but seems like this should be much more publicized/discussed than what I'm seeing.

Very interested to hear everyone else's thoughts/opinions about appropriate punishment to Brady and potentially NE.

ETA, another poster wrote:

Cowherd did a good segment on it this morning IMO. Basically said what Brady did wasn't the end of the world, but it was something. And if Brady didn't feel it was important, no way does Brady risk what he did in pulling this off.

Cowherd also said he spoke with 4 NFL QB's and all said they didn't think ball feel that critical for a QB, but did say RB's and WR's would have an easier time hanging onto the ball and thus explain Pat's lack of fumbles. That's where they said the true advantage might reside, beyond the psychological one Brady obtained himself by using deflated balls.

Final point CC made was that Brady in report claims he doesn't know who one equipment manager even is, but then report details all the text messages the two had with each othe

[OFWGKTA]

The Pats fumble rates are low because BB will bury you if you fumble often, see Ridley coming off a 1200 yard season. In the report it states that the officials inflated the balls to 16 PSI in the Jets game, Brady was pissed. Brady then sought out the rules and told the equipment guys to inflate the balls to 12.5 and show the officials a copy of the rules before each game. The firm that did the investigation is known for creating favorable conclusions for its clients. This same firm concluded that second hand smoke couldn't cause cancer. There is zero hard evidence of anything, Brady shouldn't be suspended at all.

Also the rule book states ball tampering is a 25k fine, Brady will dig that out of his couch cushions if need be.

[Curmudgeon]

I've been totally bored by this story from day 1. Who cares that the footballs were a smidgeon below some arbitrary minimum PSI limit? All teams prepare the balls the way their QB likes it.

Let them suspend Brady for 6 games and see what happens to their TV ratings. Belichick will still make the playoffs, and the next time he plays the Colts he will rub their noses in Brady's excrement.

[truth18]

There is a Patriots sub forum.

Also, Coward is a lisping idiot.

Gl next year, I like Aaron Rodgers.

[Ben-N1ce]

All I know is he threw 3 TD's in the 2nd half of the Colts game then 4 in the SB with 2 INT and the team had zero fumbles. Regardless he will get suspended anywhere between 2-4 games.

[sam_I_am]

Against Jets the balls were 14 PSI or higher. Brady was unhappy. McNally and Jastremski were being pressured by Brady.

If one assumes that Brady wanted the balls at 12.5 and is honest - the text messages make sense. "Deflategate" didn't exist when McNally called himself the deflator. Deflating the balls to 12.5 still makes you a deflated, If one assumes that Brady conspired to get ball to 11.5 to cheat - they also make sense. There really is no proof at all that they were trying to cheat. I'm not a naive homer - I think Brady's press conference was an embarrassment and in my opinion he was trying to pull a Clintonesque double talk.

Wells report doesn't address the fact that NFL has no idea what all the other QBs in league do because nobody actually checks and records PSIs of balls every game every Sunday.

At end of day, we know the Hawks definitely cheated in a way - much more than deflating footballs or filming signs that everybody in stadium can see is cheating. For some reason, pundits and ESPN don't care about piping in extra noise to make it harder for visitors to hear plays in huddle.

[Geoffrey P]

Soooo where's the actual evidence or are they just going to keep speculating? Cause they totally are. How this is still a story is beyond me.

Reminds me of spygate when you damn well know every team in the league is pulling the same crap but the one that gets caught is the one to be made an example of while all others slide by unharmed. Except that they actually had evidence.

[sully00]

My reaction on the NFL forum I frequent(sorry, not trying to Troll as I'm a Packer fan, but I'm genuinely intrigued by this story):

So the interesting thing here is then you are probably aware that Rodgers has admitted to doing the reverse in an interview prior to this whole debacle. He has his equipment guy pump the balls up to 16 psi after refs check them same with Eli Manning.

The report is kind of a debacle for the league and I am not sure why they didn't either come up with no conclusions or do a more thorough job. Turning the concept of adding or removing air from a football after the ref checks them into steroids in a league that steroids isn't steroids is just really dumb.

Now this to me isn't on whether they Patriots did it or not they clearly probably did. There are 3 key issues.

This is essentially the same circumstances as George Brett and the pine tar on the bat. If it goes before a judge the league will lose. You can't know someone is breaking a rule and ignore it until it is convenient for you to pull the card to get a competitive advantage.

The Commissioner lied again. It is in the report. He stated that he had no prior knowledge of the Patriots having under inflated balls until after the AFC Championship game and league was in fact forwarded an email from the Colts about prior to the game which is why we are having this discussion to begin with. Why did he lie about that?

The glaring omissions in the report as far as testimony offered by Brady and other circumstances surrounding the inflation of footballs in the league in general are going to require further investigation if a decisions is rendered that has to be mitigated.

I think the team the gets fined and maybe loses a late round pick for the equipment people screwing with the balls. But I think that there is a stern rebuke of Brady but that Goodell says that there just isn't enough to go on with Brady and it dies. I think that was sort of what Kraft meant with his comments on excepting whatever the discipline is. If Goodell goes after Brady for more than say a fine I think that is when the fun starts.

Imagine being Robert Kraft and hearing that your (enter your superlative) QB has been suspended two games for suspicion of generally knowing that the equipment guy let some air out of the game balls while the entire league was dragged through the mud the past year. I think the gloves would be off.

[Marley2Hendrix]

Thanks for the replies. I'll mention the reason I posted it here rather than the Pats' forum is that this has been my primary forum for over a decade, I have a good familiarity with the majority of you, and, accordingly, value the opinions here.

Agreed that this is yet another mustard stain on the metaphorical tie of the commissioner. What I'm hanging on with the fumbling statistic is that while I get why it was scaled as such to fit comfortably in browsers, I think the statistical relevance of 10,000 to 1 would be more apparent if scaled proportionately along the Y-Axis. With respect to statistical significance, I tend to dismiss the argument that BB's disdain for fumbling is the sole reason for such a glaring disparity.

As far as over vs under-inflators, I appreciate Rodgers downplaying the significance of this incident for a fellow qb. If a compelling case is made that intentional over-inflation leads to a statistical advantage, I'd have no qualms if all guilty parties were to be punished similarly.

The shame in this is, as indicated by the score board and subjective viewing experience of the game, Brady did not need to do this. Again, to me, the more compelling piece is why and what insights this might suggest about his character/persona.

[truth18]

[youtube]https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W3GNECVnPPw[/youtube]

Watch out for secret indictments, Tom.

[SmartWentCrazy]

Thanks for the replies. I'll mention the reason I posted it here rather than the Pats' forum is that this has been my primary forum for over a decade, I have a good familiarity with the majority of you, and, accordingly, value the opinions here.

Agreed that this is yet another mustard stain on the metaphorical tie of the commissioner. What I'm hanging on with the fumbling statistic is that while I get why it was scaled as such to fit comfortably in browsers, I think the statistical relevance of 10,000 to 1 would be more apparent if scaled proportionately along the Y-Axis. With respect to statistical significance, I tend to dismiss the argument that BB's disdain for fumbling is the sole reason for such a glaring disparity.

As far as over vs under-inflators, I appreciate Rodgers downplaying the significance of this incident for a fellow qb. If a compelling case is made that intentional over-inflation leads to a statistical advantage, I'd have no qualms if all guilty parties were to be punished similarly.

The shame in this is, as indicated by the score board and subjective viewing experience of the game, Brady did not need to do this. Again, to me, the more compelling piece is why and what insights this might suggest about his character/persona.

Regarding the 10,000 to 1 statistic:

I am assuming this is from the Wallstreet Journal article from a few months ago. FiveThirtyEight aggregated articles from statistics experts that tore that figure to shreds:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/your-guide-to-deflate-gateballghazi-related-statistical-analyses/

In brief, the stats used were incredibly cherry picked. They excluded dome teams, rather than dome games, included kick offs in the sample, when the kicking balls are independent from game balls, and ignored external factors, such as numerous reports stating how much the pats focus on ball security vs the rest of the NFL.

[threrf23]

I don't know what to think about the Wells report and the context surrounding the situation. I am just thankful for Malcolm Butler. Has a statue been erected yet?

[sully00]

As far as over vs under-inflators, I appreciate Rodgers downplaying the significance of this incident for a fellow qb. If a compelling case is made that intentional over-inflation leads to a statistical advantage, I'd have no qualms if all guilty parties were to be punished similarly.

The shame in this is, as indicated by the score board and subjective viewing experience of the game, Brady did not need to do this. Again, to me, the more compelling piece is why and what insights this might suggest about his character/persona.

It doesn't work that way. Rodgers comments happened before the AFC championship game as did Eli Manning's they were available the week this story broke. The rule violation, if that is what it now is, would go either way. It isn't okay to over inflate the balls, if you tamper with the ball pressure in any way after the officials check them then you are guilty of what the Patriots are guilty of the rule isn't one way there is a maximum and a minimum. Two other high profile quarterbacks have admitted doing exactly that this year in media interviews and drew no response.

What I would be concerned with if I was someone with a vested interest in the NFL is what are we doing here? Ordinarily the league has a ton of leverage against its employees, Tom Brady at 37 years old and 5 super bowls and all the money in the world isn't that guy. I don't know what tilt is but say they suspend him for 6 games. They have almost nothing substantial to lean on, he has admitted nothing and nobody is actually pointing the finger at him. They depend on his need to earn money in the NFL to enforce that. Has anyone thought of what happens if he says screw you, I quit and I am now suing you for 1 billion dollars in damages.

See everyone wants to turn this into did they do it and ignore whether or not this is just a common occurrence some have already admitted to but the league has chosen to single out one team and possibly player for it. The belief was that this investigation would look into what was going on league wide with the inflation of footballs and it did not.

Is the NFL and its commissioner really ready to go under oath on this issue and his truthfulness?

[truth18]

Can't believe the talking heads are roasting us and Brady like this. It was freaking ball pressure. There are so many more egregious errors that legends of sports have made. Bountygate, Bonds, Andre Agassi, Karl Malone, have all done WAY worse things and don't have tainted legacies. If this bs actually effects Brady's legacy I will blame the media honestly, not the NFL/Goodell as much as I hate them. Just irresponsible stuff from CNN/ESPN.

[Geoffrey P]

http://yourteamcheats.com/cheaters/

WTB posted this and it's pretty hilarious.

[truth18]

Fours games without pay, we give up our first round draft pick, and the Patriots are fined one million.

There goes the season. ****. You ready, Jim G?

[Geoffrey P]

I'm more concerned with the Pats not doing jack **** this offseason. Also ditto on the legacy thing. Media and the internet are absolutely brutal now. Doesn't help that there are a bunch of morons inhabiting the world.

Who woulda thunk, Brady's legacy has all been possible because of deflated balls

Oh and I guess wife beaters and murderers are less of a problem to the integrity of the NFL. Puhlease

[truth18]

Right? Pipe in crowd noise to drown out teams for two years? Fined.

Knock your wife out cold and lie about it? Two games?

BUT NO, HE LIKES HIS BALLS A CERTAIN WAY: FOUR GAMES

[RobZagnut]

Sounds about right and better than expected.

They're probably go 2-2 without Brady and will still win the division, because the rest still suck. The loss of the #1 is what hurts. The Pats will probably recoup the #1 when some loser GM gives them a #1 for Garropolo who will play halfway decent in those 4 games. And if anyone thinks they only deflated during the Colts game they're delusional. They only got CAUGHT during the Colts game.

The Patriots, why is it always the Patriots?

[sully00]

The bigger issue to me is where it goes from here. This is going to get ugly. No matter what your feeling on this is you have to realize that there is drama, all of the people on the league side are guys from the Bills, Jets, Colts, Eagles. They went balls to the walls on this and I am not sure they are going to survive the deposition.

I have never heard the concept of the appeals process involving negotiations with a player and his agent. They decided to have the investigation so they have to do something I guess but they sent communications out today that were already talking about how it was a 4 game suspension because they were hoping to get 2 after the appeal and negotiations with Brady?

I know the next step is supposed to be appeal but I think it will be a defamation law suit and injunction. The problem for the league is that they have to be suspending Brady for tampering with the footballs at the AFC Championship game. They have to be able to prove the balls were tampered with. What the report says is that we have believe Walt Anderson's recollection when it comes to checking the pressure prior to the game but ignore his recollection when it comes to the device he used to do so. No judge is going to care about the argument that "we knew they were doing it and only caught them this time" if they don't have real evidence that they caught them.

If they have the evidence then they should have wrote a better report because no judge is going to care that Brady didn't cooperate with a which hunt. They could have done whatever they wanted to the team and Kraft would have eaten it but now it is bigger than that and Brady has a lot more options at his disposal to defend himself and little reason not to do so.