ImageImageImageImageImage

The Brock Purdy Thread

Moderators: CalamityX12, MHSL82

CrimsonCrew
RealGM
Posts: 11,387
And1: 967
Joined: Aug 21, 2014
 

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#21 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:06 pm

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
He’s been good because he has insanely good weapons, and he does a good job being a system qb. Gardner Minshew put up huge numbers when he was a starter too. Doesn’t mean he’s going to be able to beat elite defenses & QBs deep in the playoffs.


He literally beat an elite defense in the playoffs last year.


Yes, but the Cowboys have Dak Prescot at QB who is incompetent himself.


Very few teams in today's NFL have an elite QB and an elite defense. Currently only the Eagles really come close, and I think you could reasonably quibble with the elite label for both QB (just not enough sample size, yet) and D (not great against the run).
CrimsonCrew
RealGM
Posts: 11,387
And1: 967
Joined: Aug 21, 2014
 

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#22 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:08 pm

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:And Gardner Minshew is 8-16 as a starter, including 1-3 with the Eagles over the past two years.


That's because he doesn't have Shanahan setting the table for him.


Because the Eagles had awful playcalling last year? They were 14-1 in games that Minshew didn't start. He scored 10 points at home against the Saints.
Pattersonca65
Analyst
Posts: 3,322
And1: 208
Joined: Aug 29, 2014
     

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#23 » by Pattersonca65 » Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:39 pm

Big J wrote:
zman1 wrote:
arich35 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Dink and dunk QB
Dink and dunk may be where it's at now: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38378450/nfl-death-long-passing-deep-ball-aerial-yards-negative-trend

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk


Yea, except in order to be able to get the wide open short throws you have to have the threat of being able to throw the long ball. Otherwise good defenses will start taking away the easy stuff.


You keep pushing this BS narrative that all Purdy does is dink and dunk. He all throws a good mid range ball. He doesn't just throw the easy stuff. Your whole premise is BS
Pattersonca65
Analyst
Posts: 3,322
And1: 208
Joined: Aug 29, 2014
     

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#24 » by Pattersonca65 » Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:42 pm

zman1 wrote:
Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
None of us can really say at this point. He can't get a contract extension for two seasons, so we've got some time to see how he develops before we have to make a decision.


It’s not hard to say it because there is maybe 1 qb in league history who has had similar physical limitations and won a SB, and that was Drew Brees, and nobody in their right mind is comparing Purdy to Drew Brees.
What about Joe Montana? How does he rate on arm strength or running? About average I would say. Purdy's strengths are more like Joe's and maybe good enough?

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk


Montana was very mobile the first few years of his career till the 1986 season when he had the back surgery. He wasn't the same after that and became more like Brady from the pocket.
User avatar
Big J
General Manager
Posts: 9,626
And1: 7,479
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#25 » by Big J » Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:52 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:And Gardner Minshew is 8-16 as a starter, including 1-3 with the Eagles over the past two years.


That's because he doesn't have Shanahan setting the table for him.


Because the Eagles had awful playcalling last year? They were 14-1 in games that Minshew didn't start. He scored 10 points at home against the Saints.


That's because their whole offense was built around a mobile QB, which Minshew is not. The Niners offense is built around having a game manager at QB.
zman1
Pro Prospect
Posts: 950
And1: 128
Joined: Sep 15, 2014
   

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#26 » by zman1 » Wed Sep 13, 2023 7:56 pm

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
He’s been good because he has insanely good weapons, and he does a good job being a system qb. Gardner Minshew put up huge numbers when he was a starter too. Doesn’t mean he’s going to be able to beat elite defenses & QBs deep in the playoffs.


He literally beat an elite defense in the playoffs last year.


Yes, but the Cowboys have Dak Prescot at QB who is incompetent himself.
But Dak is bigger than Purdy with a much stronger arm and he is a better runner. Doesn't that make Dak better than Purdy by your way of looking at qbs?

Also, I never said Purdy was Joe Montana, just that their best attributes are similar.

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk
CrimsonCrew
RealGM
Posts: 11,387
And1: 967
Joined: Aug 21, 2014
 

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#27 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed Sep 13, 2023 8:04 pm

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
That's because he doesn't have Shanahan setting the table for him.


Because the Eagles had awful playcalling last year? They were 14-1 in games that Minshew didn't start. He scored 10 points at home against the Saints.


That's because their whole offense was built around a mobile QB, which Minshew is not. The Niners offense is built around having a game manager at QB.


That's fair to a degree. Even without Hurts as a running threat, that's still an incredibly potent offense. Best OL in the league, close to the top at WR, probably top-5 at TE, and a good, deep RB room. I think Purdy beats the Saints if he's thrust into that position.
User avatar
Big J
General Manager
Posts: 9,626
And1: 7,479
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#28 » by Big J » Wed Sep 13, 2023 10:11 pm

zman1 wrote:
Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
He literally beat an elite defense in the playoffs last year.


Yes, but the Cowboys have Dak Prescot at QB who is incompetent himself.
But Dak is bigger than Purdy with a much stronger arm and he is a better runner. Doesn't that make Dak better than Purdy by your way of looking at qbs?

Also, I never said Purdy was Joe Montana, just that their best attributes are similar.

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk


Dak is better than Purdy. His problems are between the ears.
CrimsonCrew
RealGM
Posts: 11,387
And1: 967
Joined: Aug 21, 2014
 

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#29 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed Sep 13, 2023 11:57 pm

Big J wrote:
zman1 wrote:
Big J wrote:
Yes, but the Cowboys have Dak Prescot at QB who is incompetent himself.
But Dak is bigger than Purdy with a much stronger arm and he is a better runner. Doesn't that make Dak better than Purdy by your way of looking at qbs?

Also, I never said Purdy was Joe Montana, just that their best attributes are similar.

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk


Dak is better than Purdy. His problems are between the ears.


Dak is incompetent, but still better than the first QB in the history of the league to start his career by going 6-0 with two passing TDs in every game and a passer rating above 95 in every game? Either Dak is pretty darn good, or Purdy's better than him.
User avatar
Big J
General Manager
Posts: 9,626
And1: 7,479
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#30 » by Big J » Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:10 am

CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
zman1 wrote:But Dak is bigger than Purdy with a much stronger arm and he is a better runner. Doesn't that make Dak better than Purdy by your way of looking at qbs?

Also, I never said Purdy was Joe Montana, just that their best attributes are similar.

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk


Dak is better than Purdy. His problems are between the ears.


Dak is incompetent, but still better than the first QB in the history of the league to start his career by going 6-0 with two passing TDs in every game and a passer rating above 95 in every game? Either Dak is pretty darn good, or Purdy's better than him.


Plenty of QB's have had hot 6 game stretches. Purdy's just happened to be at the beginning of his career on a team loaded with the best weapons in the league.
CrimsonCrew
RealGM
Posts: 11,387
And1: 967
Joined: Aug 21, 2014
 

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#31 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Sep 14, 2023 12:53 am

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
Dak is better than Purdy. His problems are between the ears.


Dak is incompetent, but still better than the first QB in the history of the league to start his career by going 6-0 with two passing TDs in every game and a passer rating above 95 in every game? Either Dak is pretty darn good, or Purdy's better than him.


Plenty of QB's have had hot 6 game stretches. Purdy's just happened to be at the beginning of his career on a team loaded with the best weapons in the league.


No one has ever had a six-game stretch like Purdy has to start a career. It's special. That's not to say he'll be a HOF QB, but acting like what we're seeing him do is run-of-the-mill and no big deal is absurd. It suggests a real lack of perspective when it comes to evaluating the QB position.
User avatar
Big J
General Manager
Posts: 9,626
And1: 7,479
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#32 » by Big J » Thu Sep 14, 2023 1:01 am

CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Dak is incompetent, but still better than the first QB in the history of the league to start his career by going 6-0 with two passing TDs in every game and a passer rating above 95 in every game? Either Dak is pretty darn good, or Purdy's better than him.


Plenty of QB's have had hot 6 game stretches. Purdy's just happened to be at the beginning of his career on a team loaded with the best weapons in the league.


No one has ever had a six-game stretch like Purdy has to start a career. It's special. That's not to say he'll be a HOF QB, but acting like what we're seeing him do is run-of-the-mill and no big deal is absurd. It suggests a real lack of perspective when it comes to evaluating the QB position.


Actually, no. It’s called being objective and not being a homer. Think about it. Most rookie QBs go to terrible teams and don’t have the luxury of playing on stacked rosters with good coaches. Which is why they lose more games and look worse.
CrimsonCrew
RealGM
Posts: 11,387
And1: 967
Joined: Aug 21, 2014
 

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#33 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Sep 14, 2023 5:47 am

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
Plenty of QB's have had hot 6 game stretches. Purdy's just happened to be at the beginning of his career on a team loaded with the best weapons in the league.


No one has ever had a six-game stretch like Purdy has to start a career. It's special. That's not to say he'll be a HOF QB, but acting like what we're seeing him do is run-of-the-mill and no big deal is absurd. It suggests a real lack of perspective when it comes to evaluating the QB position.


Actually, no. It’s called being objective and not being a homer. Think about it. Most rookie QBs go to terrible teams and don’t have the luxury of playing on stacked rosters with good coaches. Which is why they lose more games and look worse.


So there are a few problems with this.

First, most rookies don't go to terrible teams. Most early first-round QBs go to terrible teams. But lots of QBs are drafted every year, many of them to good if not great teams. Jalen Hurts was drafted by the division-winning Eagles. He went 1-3 as a rookie starter, 2-4 over his first six, and had two games with a 95+ passer rating. Tommy Stevens went to the 13-3 Saints that same year. He didn't exactly light it up. The year before Jarrett Stidham and Trace McSorley went to top-tier teams in NE and Baltimore. They're hanging around, but haven't exactly set the world on fire. Mason Rudolph went to the 13-3 Steelers before that. He didn't play a snap as a rookie, then went 3-3 in his first six starts as a second-year player. Hell, Patrick Mahomes went to the 12-4 Chiefs, is supremely physically talented, sat on the bench for almost a full year, and he didn't play as well as Purdy has (three games with a rating below 95, also three games with one or fewer passing TDs) - though he did go undefeated for his first six starts before losing his seventh.

Second, that stat doesn't mention first six starts as a rookie, just first six starts. So it considers players like Aaron Rodgers, who took over what had been a 13-3 team going into his fourth season and went 5-8 in his 13 starts.

It's not being a homer to acknowledge the objective fact that Purdy's play has been extremely impressive to date. I keep qualifying this and saying that it's not yet clear that he can carry a team when he's the most expensive player, but so far, he has looked like a savvy vet in a fairly unprecedented way. Refusing to acknowledge that, and acting as if anyone with a pulse could do the same, reveals an obvious bias.
User avatar
Harry Palmer
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 40,575
And1: 2,601
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Location: It’s all a bit vague.

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#34 » by Harry Palmer » Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:01 am

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
Dak is better than Purdy. His problems are between the ears.


Dak is incompetent, but still better than the first QB in the history of the league to start his career by going 6-0 with two passing TDs in every game and a passer rating above 95 in every game? Either Dak is pretty darn good, or Purdy's better than him.


Plenty of QB's have had hot 6 game stretches. Purdy's just happened to be at the beginning of his career on a team loaded with the best weapons in the league.



Dude, I was with you on Trey being kinda screwed and > Darnold, but you keep underrating Purdy as a game manager when he routinely takes intermediate shots when shorter is available. He also routinely buys time for intermediate and even long second windows to open up, he’s throwing 50/50 balls despite no starter on the team with the possible exception of Kittle having shown much history of winning those, and literally every NFL round table is talking about how aggressive Kyle’s game plan suddenly is with Purdy. One of the best defensive HC’s in recent history had all offseason to study him, plan accordingly and despite the right side of the OL getting beat like a drum Purdy sliced and diced. And this game’s offence was almost entirely Purdy’s arm and the running game; YAC wasn’t.

But more you keep talking like proposing that the opposite of what he’s done literally every game he’s played in and not blown his arm out is less likely than what you imagine his future play will be. That’s not reasonable. Saying you need more time before believing that he’ll keep doing what he’s done every game is getting closer to unreasonable, but still viable. Saying that his play will certainly be what it has never yet been feels like you’re just grinding an axe. We both wish Trey was still here, but don’t let that blind you to how impressive Purdy is playing.

And it’s not like Foles throwing bombs into baskets, it’s not unrepeatable, almost everything Purdy’s doing comes from reading and understanding coverages and where X means Y is open, etc. and then just basic accuracy, plus the ability to buy time with his ridiculous short area speed. None of that just goes away. Will he increasingly see different looks? Prbably some, but like I said no one is going to have more time to try and make him do what they don’t think he can do than Tomlin just had. Not telling you to buy in, your take, but I’m suggesting constantly yelling ‘sell, sell, sell’ is seeming a bit odd. Try just watching what he does, not what we wish Lance was doing. I think there’s a very good chance we got something here. Maybe not a guy who Carrie’s us when the surrounding talent falls away, but right here, right now, the way he’s playing we’re probably the best team in the league. Enjoy it.
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.

-Arthur Schopenhauer
User avatar
Big J
General Manager
Posts: 9,626
And1: 7,479
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#35 » by Big J » Thu Sep 14, 2023 1:57 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
No one has ever had a six-game stretch like Purdy has to start a career. It's special. That's not to say he'll be a HOF QB, but acting like what we're seeing him do is run-of-the-mill and no big deal is absurd. It suggests a real lack of perspective when it comes to evaluating the QB position.


Actually, no. It’s called being objective and not being a homer. Think about it. Most rookie QBs go to terrible teams and don’t have the luxury of playing on stacked rosters with good coaches. Which is why they lose more games and look worse.


So there are a few problems with this.

First, most rookies don't go to terrible teams. Most early first-round QBs go to terrible teams. But lots of QBs are drafted every year, many of them to good if not great teams. Jalen Hurts was drafted by the division-winning Eagles. He went 1-3 as a rookie starter, 2-4 over his first six, and had two games with a 95+ passer rating. Tommy Stevens went to the 13-3 Saints that same year. He didn't exactly light it up. The year before Jarrett Stidham and Trace McSorley went to top-tier teams in NE and Baltimore. They're hanging around, but haven't exactly set the world on fire. Mason Rudolph went to the 13-3 Steelers before that. He didn't play a snap as a rookie, then went 3-3 in his first six starts as a second-year player. Hell, Patrick Mahomes went to the 12-4 Chiefs, is supremely physically talented, sat on the bench for almost a full year, and he didn't play as well as Purdy has (three games with a rating below 95, also three games with one or fewer passing TDs) - though he did go undefeated for his first six starts before losing his seventh.

Second, that stat doesn't mention first six starts as a rookie, just first six starts. So it considers players like Aaron Rodgers, who took over what had been a 13-3 team going into his fourth season and went 5-8 in his 13 starts.

It's not being a homer to acknowledge the objective fact that Purdy's play has been extremely impressive to date. I keep qualifying this and saying that it's not yet clear that he can carry a team when he's the most expensive player, but so far, he has looked like a savvy vet in a fairly unprecedented way. Refusing to acknowledge that, and acting as if anyone with a pulse could do the same, reveals an obvious bias.


Dude, I’ve never denied that Purdy can win regular season games by playing within the Shanahan system. Jimmy G won a hell of a lot of them doing the same thing. My issue is that we’ve already seen the outcome of what happens in the playoffs when you have a limited qb. Kyle saw this happen himself up close which is why he traded 3 firsts to draft Lance.
User avatar
Big J
General Manager
Posts: 9,626
And1: 7,479
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#36 » by Big J » Thu Sep 14, 2023 2:28 pm

Harry Palmer wrote:
Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Dak is incompetent, but still better than the first QB in the history of the league to start his career by going 6-0 with two passing TDs in every game and a passer rating above 95 in every game? Either Dak is pretty darn good, or Purdy's better than him.


Plenty of QB's have had hot 6 game stretches. Purdy's just happened to be at the beginning of his career on a team loaded with the best weapons in the league.



Dude, I was with you on Trey being kinda screwed and > Darnold, but you keep underrating Purdy as a game manager when he routinely takes intermediate shots when shorter is available. He also routinely buys time for intermediate and even long second windows to open up, he’s throwing 50/50 balls despite no starter on the team with the possible exception of Kittle having shown much history of winning those, and literally every NFL round table is talking about how aggressive Kyle’s game plan suddenly is with Purdy. One of the best defensive HC’s in recent history had all offseason to study him, plan accordingly and despite the right side of the OL getting beat like a drum Purdy sliced and diced. And this game’s offence was almost entirely Purdy’s arm and the running game; YAC wasn’t.

But more you keep talking like proposing that the opposite of what he’s done literally every game he’s played in and not blown his arm out is less likely than what you imagine his future play will be. That’s not reasonable. Saying you need more time before believing that he’ll keep doing what he’s done every game is getting closer to unreasonable, but still viable. Saying that his play will certainly be what it has never yet been feels like you’re just grinding an axe. We both wish Trey was still here, but don’t let that blind you to how impressive Purdy is playing.

And it’s not like Foles throwing bombs into baskets, it’s not unrepeatable, almost everything Purdy’s doing comes from reading and understanding coverages and where X means Y is open, etc. and then just basic accuracy, plus the ability to buy time with his ridiculous short area speed. None of that just goes away. Will he increasingly see different looks? Prbably some, but like I said no one is going to have more time to try and make him do what they don’t think he can do than Tomlin just had. Not telling you to buy in, your take, but I’m suggesting constantly yelling ‘sell, sell, sell’ is seeming a bit odd. Try just watching what he does, not what we wish Lance was doing. I think there’s a very good chance we got something here. Maybe not a guy who Carrie’s us when the surrounding talent falls away, but right here, right now, the way he’s playing we’re probably the best team in the league. Enjoy it.


I can’t enjoy it because I’ve already seen the outcome of what happens on this team with a guy who has a similar skill set. Sure they win a bunch of regular season games, but don’t have enough to take out the big boys in the playoffs. Purdy is a cute little underdog story, but he’s limited. Why did Kyle trade 3 firsts for a qb who had elite physical traits?
User avatar
Harry Palmer
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 40,575
And1: 2,601
Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Location: It’s all a bit vague.

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#37 » by Harry Palmer » Thu Sep 14, 2023 3:44 pm

Big J wrote:
Harry Palmer wrote:
Big J wrote:
Plenty of QB's have had hot 6 game stretches. Purdy's just happened to be at the beginning of his career on a team loaded with the best weapons in the league.



Dude, I was with you on Trey being kinda screwed and > Darnold, but you keep underrating Purdy as a game manager when he routinely takes intermediate shots when shorter is available. He also routinely buys time for intermediate and even long second windows to open up, he’s throwing 50/50 balls despite no starter on the team with the possible exception of Kittle having shown much history of winning those, and literally every NFL round table is talking about how aggressive Kyle’s game plan suddenly is with Purdy. One of the best defensive HC’s in recent history had all offseason to study him, plan accordingly and despite the right side of the OL getting beat like a drum Purdy sliced and diced. And this game’s offence was almost entirely Purdy’s arm and the running game; YAC wasn’t.

But more you keep talking like proposing that the opposite of what he’s done literally every game he’s played in and not blown his arm out is less likely than what you imagine his future play will be. That’s not reasonable. Saying you need more time before believing that he’ll keep doing what he’s done every game is getting closer to unreasonable, but still viable. Saying that his play will certainly be what it has never yet been feels like you’re just grinding an axe. We both wish Trey was still here, but don’t let that blind you to how impressive Purdy is playing.

And it’s not like Foles throwing bombs into baskets, it’s not unrepeatable, almost everything Purdy’s doing comes from reading and understanding coverages and where X means Y is open, etc. and then just basic accuracy, plus the ability to buy time with his ridiculous short area speed. None of that just goes away. Will he increasingly see different looks? Prbably some, but like I said no one is going to have more time to try and make him do what they don’t think he can do than Tomlin just had. Not telling you to buy in, your take, but I’m suggesting constantly yelling ‘sell, sell, sell’ is seeming a bit odd. Try just watching what he does, not what we wish Lance was doing. I think there’s a very good chance we got something here. Maybe not a guy who Carrie’s us when the surrounding talent falls away, but right here, right now, the way he’s playing we’re probably the best team in the league. Enjoy it.


I can’t enjoy it because I’ve already seen the outcome of what happens on this team with a guy who has a similar skill set. Sure they win a bunch of regular season games, but don’t have enough to take out the big boys in the playoffs. Purdy is a cute little underdog story, but he’s limited. Why did Kyle trade 3 firsts for a qb who had elite physical traits?


He’s better than Jimmy. He has more natural ability. Watch any round table or player podcast, they’re all saying it. Whenever Jimmy went off script you held your breath until often letting it out in a curse, with Brock so far it’s the opposite; at worse it’s an incompletion. Now will he get burned moving forwards? Sure. But he has much better mobility and he doesn’t seem to have Jimmy’s blind spots. But Kyle…the guy who wanted out from under Jimmy and never really bought in…that same guy loves him, and I don’t mean in press conferences. Just watch the play calls, he trusts Brock and lets him loose a million times more than he ever did Jimmy. And he’s been right to do so. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, etc. The list of great qbs without astonishing toolsets is about as long as those who have them, and that’s because the biggest tool is between the ears. And that’s impossible to scout well, which is why so many greats go later than they should. Now will Brock be that good? Odds aren’t great, but consider this: he’s off to a better start than any of them, or any of the unicorns. If you had your choice between Joe Montana and Colin Kaepernick, who do you take?
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.

-Arthur Schopenhauer
Pattersonca65
Analyst
Posts: 3,322
And1: 208
Joined: Aug 29, 2014
     

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#38 » by Pattersonca65 » Thu Sep 14, 2023 4:02 pm

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
Actually, no. It’s called being objective and not being a homer. Think about it. Most rookie QBs go to terrible teams and don’t have the luxury of playing on stacked rosters with good coaches. Which is why they lose more games and look worse.


So there are a few problems with this.

First, most rookies don't go to terrible teams. Most early first-round QBs go to terrible teams. But lots of QBs are drafted every year, many of them to good if not great teams. Jalen Hurts was drafted by the division-winning Eagles. He went 1-3 as a rookie starter, 2-4 over his first six, and had two games with a 95+ passer rating. Tommy Stevens went to the 13-3 Saints that same year. He didn't exactly light it up. The year before Jarrett Stidham and Trace McSorley went to top-tier teams in NE and Baltimore. They're hanging around, but haven't exactly set the world on fire. Mason Rudolph went to the 13-3 Steelers before that. He didn't play a snap as a rookie, then went 3-3 in his first six starts as a second-year player. Hell, Patrick Mahomes went to the 12-4 Chiefs, is supremely physically talented, sat on the bench for almost a full year, and he didn't play as well as Purdy has (three games with a rating below 95, also three games with one or fewer passing TDs) - though he did go undefeated for his first six starts before losing his seventh.

Second, that stat doesn't mention first six starts as a rookie, just first six starts. So it considers players like Aaron Rodgers, who took over what had been a 13-3 team going into his fourth season and went 5-8 in his 13 starts.

It's not being a homer to acknowledge the objective fact that Purdy's play has been extremely impressive to date. I keep qualifying this and saying that it's not yet clear that he can carry a team when he's the most expensive player, but so far, he has looked like a savvy vet in a fairly unprecedented way. Refusing to acknowledge that, and acting as if anyone with a pulse could do the same, reveals an obvious bias.


Dude, I’ve never denied that Purdy can win regular season games by playing within the Shanahan system. Jimmy G won a hell of a lot of them doing the same thing. My issue is that we’ve already seen the outcome of what happens in the playoffs when you have a limited qb. Kyle saw this happen himself up close which is why he traded 3 firsts to draft Lance.



Dude, you keep saying limited after a handful of games. Kyle didn't know exactly what he had in Jimmy G when he traded for him but using your logic the 49ers wasted three first round picks on a limited QB who can't read defenses or throw a ten yard slant pass.
CrimsonCrew
RealGM
Posts: 11,387
And1: 967
Joined: Aug 21, 2014
 

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#39 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Sep 14, 2023 4:14 pm

Big J wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
Big J wrote:
Actually, no. It’s called being objective and not being a homer. Think about it. Most rookie QBs go to terrible teams and don’t have the luxury of playing on stacked rosters with good coaches. Which is why they lose more games and look worse.


So there are a few problems with this.

First, most rookies don't go to terrible teams. Most early first-round QBs go to terrible teams. But lots of QBs are drafted every year, many of them to good if not great teams. Jalen Hurts was drafted by the division-winning Eagles. He went 1-3 as a rookie starter, 2-4 over his first six, and had two games with a 95+ passer rating. Tommy Stevens went to the 13-3 Saints that same year. He didn't exactly light it up. The year before Jarrett Stidham and Trace McSorley went to top-tier teams in NE and Baltimore. They're hanging around, but haven't exactly set the world on fire. Mason Rudolph went to the 13-3 Steelers before that. He didn't play a snap as a rookie, then went 3-3 in his first six starts as a second-year player. Hell, Patrick Mahomes went to the 12-4 Chiefs, is supremely physically talented, sat on the bench for almost a full year, and he didn't play as well as Purdy has (three games with a rating below 95, also three games with one or fewer passing TDs) - though he did go undefeated for his first six starts before losing his seventh.

Second, that stat doesn't mention first six starts as a rookie, just first six starts. So it considers players like Aaron Rodgers, who took over what had been a 13-3 team going into his fourth season and went 5-8 in his 13 starts.

It's not being a homer to acknowledge the objective fact that Purdy's play has been extremely impressive to date. I keep qualifying this and saying that it's not yet clear that he can carry a team when he's the most expensive player, but so far, he has looked like a savvy vet in a fairly unprecedented way. Refusing to acknowledge that, and acting as if anyone with a pulse could do the same, reveals an obvious bias.


Dude, I’ve never denied that Purdy can win regular season games by playing within the Shanahan system. Jimmy G won a hell of a lot of them doing the same thing. My issue is that we’ve already seen the outcome of what happens in the playoffs when you have a limited qb. Kyle saw this happen himself up close which is why he traded 3 firsts to draft Lance.


Except Purdy is already better than Jimmy. He doesn't make as many of the dumb mistakes. He's markedly more elusive and is able to extend plays. He appears to see the field better. And he's already played very well in the playoffs, unlike Jimmy, who truly was basically just along for the ride (4 TDs, 6 INTs in six playoff games; never thrown for more than 232 yards; only one game with a rating above 87.1, and that was a game in which he threw 8 passes).

And again, that's comparing rookie Brock Purdy with experienced vet Jimmy Garoppolo.
CrimsonCrew
RealGM
Posts: 11,387
And1: 967
Joined: Aug 21, 2014
 

Re: The Brock Purdy Thread 

Post#40 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Sep 14, 2023 4:19 pm

Big J wrote:
Harry Palmer wrote:
Big J wrote:
Plenty of QB's have had hot 6 game stretches. Purdy's just happened to be at the beginning of his career on a team loaded with the best weapons in the league.



Dude, I was with you on Trey being kinda screwed and > Darnold, but you keep underrating Purdy as a game manager when he routinely takes intermediate shots when shorter is available. He also routinely buys time for intermediate and even long second windows to open up, he’s throwing 50/50 balls despite no starter on the team with the possible exception of Kittle having shown much history of winning those, and literally every NFL round table is talking about how aggressive Kyle’s game plan suddenly is with Purdy. One of the best defensive HC’s in recent history had all offseason to study him, plan accordingly and despite the right side of the OL getting beat like a drum Purdy sliced and diced. And this game’s offence was almost entirely Purdy’s arm and the running game; YAC wasn’t.

But more you keep talking like proposing that the opposite of what he’s done literally every game he’s played in and not blown his arm out is less likely than what you imagine his future play will be. That’s not reasonable. Saying you need more time before believing that he’ll keep doing what he’s done every game is getting closer to unreasonable, but still viable. Saying that his play will certainly be what it has never yet been feels like you’re just grinding an axe. We both wish Trey was still here, but don’t let that blind you to how impressive Purdy is playing.

And it’s not like Foles throwing bombs into baskets, it’s not unrepeatable, almost everything Purdy’s doing comes from reading and understanding coverages and where X means Y is open, etc. and then just basic accuracy, plus the ability to buy time with his ridiculous short area speed. None of that just goes away. Will he increasingly see different looks? Prbably some, but like I said no one is going to have more time to try and make him do what they don’t think he can do than Tomlin just had. Not telling you to buy in, your take, but I’m suggesting constantly yelling ‘sell, sell, sell’ is seeming a bit odd. Try just watching what he does, not what we wish Lance was doing. I think there’s a very good chance we got something here. Maybe not a guy who Carrie’s us when the surrounding talent falls away, but right here, right now, the way he’s playing we’re probably the best team in the league. Enjoy it.


I can’t enjoy it because I’ve already seen the outcome of what happens on this team with a guy who has a similar skill set. Sure they win a bunch of regular season games, but don’t have enough to take out the big boys in the playoffs. Purdy is a cute little underdog story, but he’s limited. Why did Kyle trade 3 firsts for a qb who had elite physical traits?


I mean, you could argue it's because he's a bad personnel guy. All else being equal, you'd of course rather have the guy with the superior skill set. But QB play is about hitting certain benchmarks and then showing you can do more. Can you read a defense and see the field? Can you get rid of the ball quickly and within rhythm? Can you make plays under pressure? Do you recognize "NFL open"? Can you hit open receivers accurately and in stride? Once you can do those things, then we get to the next steps. Can you extend the play? Can you threaten all areas of the field with your arm? Can you hurt a team with your legs?

But if a guy can't hit those initial benchmarks, it doesn't matter if he can hit the later ones. And that's where Lance fell well short of Purdy. As with many, I think he deserved more of a chance. But circumstances intervened. There's no doubt that Purdy is better than Lance right now, and the odds of Lance ever hitting the level that Purdy has already hit to date are pretty small at this point.

Return to San Francisco 49ers