2022 Offseason thread

[wco81]

Here are the 49ers free agents:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/san-francisco-49ers/

I count about 8 starters or players who are regularly in packages, such as nickel.

No first round pick and obviously there will be big changes at QB. There is even some talk about Aaron Rodgers but the 49ers gave away their draft assets so they don't have much to offer what will likely be a very high asking price if Rodgers try to force his way out of Green Bay.

Unless they're willing to take Lance.

Impossible to know what the Hawks or Cards will look like but Rams should still have their big stars, this isn't their last run.

But there are big changes in NO and maybe one or other NFC teams which may be vying for playoff slots. So unless Trey is a disaster they should be able to contend for a WC slot.

They will have McGlinchey and Kinlaw coming back and they're both expected to start or get a lot of snaps.

Apparently Mostert and Verrett are free agents so those are two key positions they have to either re-sign or replace. The secondary could use an upgrade.

[thesack12]

Read on Twitter

This is good news for the 49ers.

Ryans had a very impressive rookie campaign calling the shots. Especially considering what he had to work with in the secondary. Also, moving Armstead inside really catapulted the Pass rush as well.

[thesack12]

Read on Twitter

[thesack12]

Read on Twitter

Considering what transpired in training camp and early this season, it makes you wonder what the motivation for that quote from Aiyuk might be.

I'd also like to think that the 49ers can do better than Sudfeld for QB2 next season. Not only is Sudfeld just an incredibly underwhelming player, but he's has the polar opposite type of skillset than Lance does. Shanahan would have to completely reform his offense if Sudfeld was ever forced into action. He's on record saying he doesn't like to do such things when similar things happened this year with Garoppolo/Lance.

Someone like Tyrod Taylor for QB2 immediately comes to mind. Taylor would also represent a solid veteran presence to be a sounding board for Trey and help prepare him.

All that said, I like the sound of Aiyuk/Lance spending time building chemistry this offseason.

[Jikkle]

Here are the 49ers free agents:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/san-francisco-49ers/

I count about 8 starters or players who are regularly in packages, such as nickel.

No first round pick and obviously there will be big changes at QB. There is even some talk about Aaron Rodgers but the 49ers gave away their draft assets so they don't have much to offer what will likely be a very high asking price if Rodgers try to force his way out of Green Bay.

Unless they're willing to take Lance.

Impossible to know what the Hawks or Cards will look like but Rams should still have their big stars, this isn't their last run.

But there are big changes in NO and maybe one or other NFC teams which may be vying for playoff slots. So unless Trey is a disaster they should be able to contend for a WC slot.

They will have McGlinchey and Kinlaw coming back and they're both expected to start or get a lot of snaps.

Apparently Mostert and Verrett are free agents so those are two key positions they have to either re-sign or replace. The secondary could use an upgrade.

I'd like Mostert and Verrett back at the right price but I don't think they are vital to resign.

Looks like there will be some secondary talent in free agency so they'll have a chance to improve going that avenue if they choose to do that which so far doesn't seem to be their MO under Lynch/Shanahan.

Fortunately this team really only has two needs and that's offensive line and secondary. All the rest of the roster is in pretty good shape.

I'd wager this offseason will look like past offseasons and they'll bring in some low key free agents but mainly focus money on extending their own.

[Pattersonca65]

What I said earlier in the season. To work on mechanics one needs to step away from the daily grind of football. Can't do both at the same time

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/kyle-shanahan-wants-trey-lance-114023382.html

[CrimsonCrew]

I realize we were discussing cap cuts in one of the other threads, but I'll import it here as it's more relevant for this. Ebukam is due to have a cap hit north of $8 million next year, and only a $1.75 million hit if we cut him. I'm not sure we can really cut him until we know who is coming back (Key and Willis in particular), but he's not worth that amount of money, and we'd save about $6.5 million by cutting him. Seems like Kocurek can get that level of performance from just about anyone.

[thesack12]

Read on Twitter

Really, not much to see here.

Only thing that comes to my mind is they just can't seem to quit Jordan Mathews for whatever reason.

[Jikkle]

Read on Twitter

Great news if it's true but who knows since a lot of these rumblings turn out to be nothing or strong push ends up being mildly interested in.

I still think the most they get for Jimmy is a 2nd but if the Bucs and Steelers do actually make a strong push a 1st rounder wouldn't be out of the question since they have theirs in the 20s. Obviously Denver's 1st wouldn't be in play but their 2nd would be.

If the 9ers can somehow pull off a 1st rounder for Jimmy that would be an amazing roll of the dice on their parts.

If they got the Bucs and especially Steelers 1st rounder they would have effectively improved their draft position in the upcoming draft by trading for Trey and when you break it down the only pick that would be a true loss for them is the 2023 1st round pick. The 3rd rounder was a comp pick from Saleh and we still made a 3rd round selection with the other comp pick we gained so we didn't really lose a 3rd rounder but just gave up an extra one if that makes sense.

[thesack12]

Read on Twitter

Great news if it's true but who knows since a lot of these rumblings turn out to be nothing or strong push ends up being mildly interested in.

I still think the most they get for Jimmy is a 2nd but if the Bucs and Steelers do actually make a strong push a 1st rounder wouldn't be out of the question since they have theirs in the 20s. Obviously Denver's 1st wouldn't be in play but their 2nd would be.

If the 9ers can somehow pull off a 1st rounder for Jimmy that would be an amazing roll of the dice on their parts.

If they got the Bucs and especially Steelers 1st rounder they would have effectively improved their draft position in the upcoming draft by trading for Trey and when you break it down the only pick that would be a true loss for them is the 2023 1st round pick. The 3rd rounder was a comp pick from Saleh and we still made a 3rd round selection with the other comp pick we gained so we didn't really lose a 3rd rounder but just gave up an extra one if that makes sense.

It makes complete sense.

Which just proves all the blind Garoppolo haters have no depth with their thought processes. They only cared about not seeing Garoppolo in a 49ers uniform any longer.

They wanted to outright cut him after Lance was drafted. Then tried to spin it as, well we'd gain the cap space by doing so. Nevermind free agency was over a month old at the time and was pretty much picked clean by then. Then it was well, they could just toll the cap space over to next season. Cool, but when Garoppolo is moved this offseason they still attain the 2022 cap space so what did you actually gain here?

Then it was Trey Lance needs to start from Day 1. Nevermind, he's the greenest/least experienced 1st round rookie QB the NFL has probably ever seen. The roster was also a very talented veteran group that was primed for another Super Bowl run. But who cares, Jimmy sucks we need Trey.

Every time Jimmy makes an in game mistake, bench his ass. Put in Trey. Doesn't matter where Trey is in his development, we just don't want to see Jimmy anymore.

Basically, they were incapable of or didn't care to do any objective or forward thinking. Their sole motivation was for Jimmy to go bye bye.

Yet here we are, coming off 2 road playoff wins and narrowly missing another Super Bowl appearance. Which unless you are operating under the Super Bowl or bust standard, is a successful season by most any measure and one 28 other teams would have been thrilled to have.

49ers are sitting pretty with their QB of the future in house, and they allowed him to develop organically and didn't have to throw him to the wolves. Their incumbent QB holds a solid amount trade value, and will be able to use him to recoup some of the draft capital they used to get their QBOTF.

Their 2021 QB plan was a masterful one. It utilized both short term and long term vision for the direction of this team. Their plan allowed the team to remain a legitimate contender in 2021, while at the same time building for the future.

Jimmy Garoppolo has more trade value today than he did on April 29, 2021.
Trey Lance is better equipped today to take the reins than he was on April 29, 2021.
The 49ers are more successful today than they were on April 29, 2021.

Well played Lynchahan, you did a marvelous job with this one.

[CrimsonCrew]

Kind of interesting exercise by the ESPN team, writers playing the role of teams and players, making trade and contract offers, and projecting what will happen with QBs in the offseason:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33192933/simulating-nfl-starting-quarterback-changes-projected-offseason-trade-offers-free-agent-deals-draft-picks-2022

They have us sending Jimmy to Tampa Bay for their second-round pick this year. That's decent return, but of the options here, I'd take the Panthers' offer instead, for two reasons.

First, the Panthers offer more. Their fourth this year, and their second next year. That second is pretty likely to be higher than the Bucs' this year, so we get two players who should at least be in the mix for starting spots. Second, although the Panthers are by no means devoid of talent, and arguably are just a QB away from potentially being quite good, they aren't as talented as the Bucs. If we can get more in exchange, and not help a team that could potentially threaten us in the playoffs, it's a win-win.

I think a second-round pick is pretty reasonable, but we do have leverage here. Teams like the Bucs and Steelers probably won't be legitimately competitive with a rookie QB next year - particularly if it's a guy they're taking in the 20s.

[CrimsonCrew]

Read on Twitter

Great news if it's true but who knows since a lot of these rumblings turn out to be nothing or strong push ends up being mildly interested in.

I still think the most they get for Jimmy is a 2nd but if the Bucs and Steelers do actually make a strong push a 1st rounder wouldn't be out of the question since they have theirs in the 20s. Obviously Denver's 1st wouldn't be in play but their 2nd would be.

If the 9ers can somehow pull off a 1st rounder for Jimmy that would be an amazing roll of the dice on their parts.

If they got the Bucs and especially Steelers 1st rounder they would have effectively improved their draft position in the upcoming draft by trading for Trey and when you break it down the only pick that would be a true loss for them is the 2023 1st round pick. The 3rd rounder was a comp pick from Saleh and we still made a 3rd round selection with the other comp pick we gained so we didn't really lose a 3rd rounder but just gave up an extra one if that makes sense.

It makes complete sense.

Which just proves all the blind Garoppolo haters have no depth with their thought processes. They only cared about not seeing Garoppolo in a 49ers uniform any longer.

They wanted to outright cut him after Lance was drafted. Then tried to spin it as, well we'd gain the cap space by doing so. Nevermind free agency was over a month old at the time and was pretty much picked clean by then. Then it was well, they could just toll the cap space over to next season. Cool, but when Garoppolo is moved this offseason they still attain the 2022 cap space so what did you actually gain here?

Then it was Trey Lance needs to start from Day 1. Nevermind, he's the greenest/least experienced 1st round rookie QB the NFL has probably ever seen. The roster was also a very talented veteran group that was primed for another Super Bowl run. But who cares, Jimmy sucks we need Trey.

Every time Jimmy makes an in game mistake, bench his ass. Put in Trey. Doesn't matter where Trey is in his development, we just don't want to see Jimmy anymore.

Basically, they were incapable of or didn't care to do any objective or forward thinking. Their sole motivation was for Jimmy to go bye bye.

Yet here we are, coming off 2 road playoff wins and narrowly missing another Super Bowl appearance. Which unless you are operating under the Super Bowl or bust standard, is a successful season by most any measure and one 28 other teams would have been thrilled to have.

49ers are sitting pretty with their QB of the future in house, and they allowed him to develop organically and didn't have to throw him to the wolves. Their incumbent QB holds a solid amount trade value, and will be able to use him to recoup some of the draft capital they used to get their QBOTF.

Their 2021 QB plan was a masterful one. It utilized both short term and long term vision for the direction of this team. Their plan allowed the team to remain a legitimate contender in 2021, while at the same time building for the future.

Jimmy Garoppolo has more trade value today than he did on April 29, 2021.
Trey Lance is better equipped today to take the reins than he was on April 29, 2021.
The 49ers are more successful today than they were on April 29, 2021.

Well played Lynchahan, you did a marvelous job with this one.

A few thoughts on this. There are some outright Jimmy haters out there, but I think they're pretty few and far between. Some guys may underestimate his value, or overestimate the state of affairs at the QB position in the NFL, but I find that most have a pretty realistic view of Garoppolo's weaknesses.

I don't recall many people urging that we simply cut Garoppolo, though the reason some people were saying that was indeed because of the cap savings. I don't recall how much we would have saved, but it would have been $20+ million, as memory serves. Because we can roll that into this year, we would now have something like $25 million instead of the $3 million we currently have (I swear that figure was more like $5 or 6 million a couple days ago). After trading Garoppolo, we'd have $50+ million in cap space instead of the $30ish million we're expected to have now. The savings would have been dramatically higher, and that's not nothing. It would pay for a year of the Deebo extension and probably more. That said, I was personally always on board with keeping Jimmy and trying to turn him into draft picks this offseason, as I think most people were.

The calls to bench Jimmy really picked up around the time we were 3-5, and I'll admit that I was among them. My thought process was that we were effectively out of the playoff hunt at that point. We were something like four or five games back in the division race. We had lost arguably the most important player on our defense for the season in Verrett (IMO, only Bosa is even close to the significance, when we factor in position and caliber of replacements).

We were 1-5 over the past six games after almost blowing the opening two games to mediocre (or truly bad, in the case of the Lions) teams. Our CBs were a disaster, and outside of Bosa, our pass rush was completely underwhelming at that point (all credit to Kocurek and Ryans for turning that unit around). We weren't utilizing Aiyuk (1 reception for six yards that week, and only one game with more than two catches), Kittle was hurt, Mostert was out for the year. It was F-ing grim. If it was going to be a lost season, we might as well start getting Lance some seasoning. I also felt that the only real chance we had of making a SB run was if Lance played and was a revelation - admittedly that was a huge longshot.

A few weeks after that, I mostly changed my mind as our team rebounded and it became clear that none of the NFC teams were dominant. They all had glaring flaws, and it seemed as if we were as talented as any of them. But it wasn't looking that way earlier when the Bucs, Cards, and Packers were all looking pretty lethal.

In terms of the situation this offseason, IMO, the fact that there is a market for Garoppolo speaks as much or more to the state of the QB position in today's NFL than it necessarily does to Garoppolo. I remember being shocked when we traded Alex Smith for two second-round picks, and I was and am a pretty big Alex Smith fan (though I still thought it was the right decision to trade him and roll with Kaepernick). But the value of competent-yet-limited players speaks more to how hard is it to even find a serviceable guy at that position than the outright talent of those guys. For that reason, we're absolutely running a risk that the guy who replaces him will never be even as good as Jimmy is. But I still think we've got to take a chance on the upside, given the flaws Jimmy has that I have documented exhaustively in this thread and elsewhere. Like Smith, his physical limitations are too great to truly get him over the hump without a truly excellent team surrounding him, particularly when you throw in the repeated, crushing mistakes.

Ultimately, it appears that the FO did handle the situation well. Obviously we'll never know what would have happened if Lance played for half the year, but it's very unlikely we would have made it to within a few minutes of the SB. And Jimmy probably has elevated his value, though the past few games haven't helped much. And at least some of that increase in value is due to the fact that we didn't look to float him until after FA and the draft, when basically no one was looking for a QB, and there aren't a lot of QB options available this year. Let's all hope we get some real value for moving off of him.

[thesack12]

A few thoughts on this. There are some outright Jimmy haters out there, but I think they're pretty few and far between. Some guys may underestimate his value, or overestimate the state of affairs at the QB position in the NFL, but I find that most have a pretty realistic view of Garoppolo's weaknesses.

I don't recall many people urging that we simply cut Garoppolo, though the reason some people were saying that was indeed because of the cap savings. I don't recall how much we would have saved, but it would have been $20+ million, as memory serves. Because we can roll that into this year, we would now have something like $25 million instead of the $3 million we currently have (I swear that figure was more like $5 or 6 million a couple days ago). After trading Garoppolo, we'd have $50+ million in cap space instead of the $30ish million we're expected to have now. The savings would have been dramatically higher, and that's not nothing. It would pay for a year of the Deebo extension and probably more. That said, I was personally always on board with keeping Jimmy and trying to turn him into draft picks this offseason, as I think most people were.

The calls to bench Jimmy really picked up around the time we were 3-5, and I'll admit that I was among them. My thought process was that we were effectively out of the playoff hunt at that point. We were something like four or five games back in the division race. We had lost arguably the most important player on our defense for the season in Verrett (IMO, only Bosa is even close to the significance, when we factor in position and caliber of replacements).

We were 1-5 over the past six games after almost blowing the opening two games to mediocre (or truly bad, in the case of the Lions) teams. Our CBs were a disaster, and outside of Bosa, our pass rush was completely underwhelming at that point (all credit to Kocurek and Ryans for turning that unit around). We weren't utilizing Aiyuk (1 reception for six yards that week, and only one game with more than two catches), Kittle was hurt, Mostert was out for the year. It was F-ing grim. If it was going to be a lost season, we might as well start getting Lance some seasoning. I also felt that the only real chance we had of making a SB run was if Lance played and was a revelation - admittedly that was a huge longshot.

A few weeks after that, I mostly changed my mind as our team rebounded and it became clear that none of the NFC teams were dominant. They all had glaring flaws, and it seemed as if we were as talented as any of them. But it wasn't looking that way earlier when the Bucs, Cards, and Packers were all looking pretty lethal.

In terms of the situation this offseason, IMO, the fact that there is a market for Garoppolo speaks as much or more to the state of the QB position in today's NFL than it necessarily does to Garoppolo. I remember being shocked when we traded Alex Smith for two second-round picks, and I was and am a pretty big Alex Smith fan (though I still thought it was the right decision to trade him and roll with Kaepernick). But the value of competent-yet-limited players speaks more to how hard is it to even find a serviceable guy at that position than the outright talent of those guys. For that reason, we're absolutely running a risk that the guy who replaces him will never be even as good as Jimmy is. But I still think we've got to take a chance on the upside, given the flaws Jimmy has that I have documented exhaustively in this thread and elsewhere. Like Smith, his physical limitations are too great to truly get him over the hump without a truly excellent team surrounding him, particularly when you throw in the repeated, crushing mistakes.

Ultimately, it appears that the FO did handle the situation well. Obviously we'll never know what would have happened if Lance played for half the year, but it's very unlikely we would have made it to within a few minutes of the SB. And Jimmy probably has elevated his value, though the past few games haven't helped much. And at least some of that increase in value is due to the fact that we didn't look to float him until after FA and the draft, when basically no one was looking for a QB, and there aren't a lot of QB options available this year. Let's all hope we get some real value for moving off of him.

In regards to the first paragraph and rolling over cap space. While on the surface yes, cutting Jimmy and rolling over the cap space would have found the 9ers with around 50 mil of cap space this season. However, its VERY important to note that there is a BIG difference between how much you are allowed to spend (available cap space) and what your actual cap number is. The salary cap number does not change because you have extra money to spend. Its basically the same as getting a new credit card with a $10,000 spending limit. While yes, it allows your buying power to increase by $10,000, but you didn't actually gain $10,000 in actual money. Every dollar you spend still counts towards the bottom line, and that bottom line does not change.

So Theoretically yes, in this scenario 9ers could have spent upwards of $50 mil this winter because they had the cap space. However, that would have resulted in the 49ers being WAYYY over the actual cap number. And it would have caused many complications down the line, and in subsequent seasons.

Rolling over cap is the main reason why you see teams get into cap hell. Like the Packers currently being like $45 mil over and the Saints being like $60 mil over the cap. They overspent because they were allowed to, but all they were doing was murdering their actual cap numbers.

As for the Lance vs Jimmy debate. From day one, I always have said that until the 49ers have a clearly better option at QB than Jimmy should be the guy. From what we saw from Lance this season, its pretty safe to say that he was not nearly close to being ready when the season started is still a work in progress. That said, Lance showed he made tremendous strides from his start against Arizona to his start against the Texans late in the season. Of course, play calling played a factor in that. But play calling is made by the guy who sees Trey every single day on the practice field, and in the film room/meetings. In that Arizona game, it was obvious that Kyle thought Trey was quite limited with what he could be trusted with and what he could bring to the table. Whereas in the Texan game, Trey looked like an actual QB out there, not just an athlete taking snaps like he did in the Arizona. This is very encouraging as it shows that Trey is indeed making big strides and we can tangibly see that he is.

When that same guy who sees/talks to Lance everyday determines that Garoppolo gives his team the best chance to win games. I think I will defer to that guy's judgement.

As for Garoppolo's market while of course his talent level/caliber of player he is a very big component to his value. But so does supply and demand, as you alluded to. The 9ers brass aren't dumb. This entire time they have been well aware of what the leaguewide QB landscape is, as well as what this year's draft class is shaping up as. They let all that factor into forming their 2021 QB plan. Everything was calculated, when they executed their plan.

As you mentioned its quite unlikely this team knocks on the door of another super bowl if Trey Lance was given the keys at any point this season. Of course, we'll never know for sure.

But from what we know to be fact, the 9ers had a successful season. They are also set up well moving forward by having a full season of development for the QBOTF, and will be getting assets + (actual) cap space for their much maligned former QB.

[zman1]

Read on Twitter

Great news if it's true but who knows since a lot of these rumblings turn out to be nothing or strong push ends up being mildly interested in.

I still think the most they get for Jimmy is a 2nd but if the Bucs and Steelers do actually make a strong push a 1st rounder wouldn't be out of the question since they have theirs in the 20s. Obviously Denver's 1st wouldn't be in play but their 2nd would be.

If the 9ers can somehow pull off a 1st rounder for Jimmy that would be an amazing roll of the dice on their parts.

If they got the Bucs and especially Steelers 1st rounder they would have effectively improved their draft position in the upcoming draft by trading for Trey and when you break it down the only pick that would be a true loss for them is the 2023 1st round pick. The 3rd rounder was a comp pick from Saleh and we still made a 3rd round selection with the other comp pick we gained so we didn't really lose a 3rd rounder but just gave up an extra one if that makes sense.

It makes complete sense.

Which just proves all the blind Garoppolo haters have no depth with their thought processes. They only cared about not seeing Garoppolo in a 49ers uniform any longer.

They wanted to outright cut him after Lance was drafted. Then tried to spin it as, well we'd gain the cap space by doing so. Nevermind free agency was over a month old at the time and was pretty much picked clean by then. Then it was well, they could just toll the cap space over to next season. Cool, but when Garoppolo is moved this offseason they still attain the 2022 cap space so what did you actually gain here?

Then it was Trey Lance needs to start from Day 1. Nevermind, he's the greenest/least experienced 1st round rookie QB the NFL has probably ever seen. The roster was also a very talented veteran group that was primed for another Super Bowl run. But who cares, Jimmy sucks we need Trey.

Every time Jimmy makes an in game mistake, bench his ass. Put in Trey. Doesn't matter where Trey is in his development, we just don't want to see Jimmy anymore.

Basically, they were incapable of or didn't care to do any objective or forward thinking. Their sole motivation was for Jimmy to go bye bye.

Yet here we are, coming off 2 road playoff wins and narrowly missing another Super Bowl appearance. Which unless you are operating under the Super Bowl or bust standard, is a successful season by most any measure and one 28 other teams would have been thrilled to have.

49ers are sitting pretty with their QB of the future in house, and they allowed him to develop organically and didn't have to throw him to the wolves. Their incumbent QB holds a solid amount trade value, and will be able to use him to recoup some of the draft capital they used to get their QBOTF.

Their 2021 QB plan was a masterful one. It utilized both short term and long term vision for the direction of this team. Their plan allowed the team to remain a legitimate contender in 2021, while at the same time building for the future.

Jimmy Garoppolo has more trade value today than he did on April 29, 2021.
Trey Lance is better equipped today to take the reins than he was on April 29, 2021.
The 49ers are more successful today than they were on April 29, 2021.

Well played Lynchahan, you did a marvelous job with this one.

Well said.

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk

[thesack12]

Kind of interesting exercise by the ESPN team, writers playing the role of teams and players, making trade and contract offers, and projecting what will happen with QBs in the offseason:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33192933/simulating-nfl-starting-quarterback-changes-projected-offseason-trade-offers-free-agent-deals-draft-picks-2022

They have us sending Jimmy to Tampa Bay for their second-round pick this year. That's decent return, but of the options here, I'd take the Panthers' offer instead, for two reasons.

First, the Panthers offer more. Their fourth this year, and their second next year. That second is pretty likely to be higher than the Bucs' this year, so we get two players who should at least be in the mix for starting spots. Second, although the Panthers are by no means devoid of talent, and arguably are just a QB away from potentially being quite good, they aren't as talented as the Bucs. If we can get more in exchange, and not help a team that could potentially threaten us in the playoffs, it's a win-win.

I think a second-round pick is pretty reasonable, but we do have leverage here. Teams like the Bucs and Steelers probably won't be legitimately competitive with a rookie QB next year - particularly if it's a guy they're taking in the 20s.

While Gilmore and Donte Jackson are both free agents, you have to think that at least one of those guys will return with an outside chance both do. So Carolina is basically loaded at CB. That being the case, if Carolina wants to enter the Garoppolo sweepstakes, I'd be fishing for CB's with them.

Its INCREDIBLY unlikely they would offer Jaycee Horn, but if they're down I'd be ecstatic with Horn/Garoppolo straight up trade.

But like I said, Horn won't be on the table. So CJ Henderson re-enters the trade discussions. He was involved in 49er trade talks earlier this season. So Garoppolo for Henderson/2023 3rd seems like a solid deal. Carolina already gave a 3rd to Jax for Henderson. So for them it would basically boil down to 2 3rd rounders + Dan Arnold for Garoppolo.

On a side note, I'd like to see the 9ers make a run at Donte Jackson in free agency. However, this regime does not seem to prioritize CB's and doesn't invest many resources to the position.

[CrimsonCrew]

A few thoughts on this. There are some outright Jimmy haters out there, but I think they're pretty few and far between. Some guys may underestimate his value, or overestimate the state of affairs at the QB position in the NFL, but I find that most have a pretty realistic view of Garoppolo's weaknesses.

I don't recall many people urging that we simply cut Garoppolo, though the reason some people were saying that was indeed because of the cap savings. I don't recall how much we would have saved, but it would have been $20+ million, as memory serves. Because we can roll that into this year, we would now have something like $25 million instead of the $3 million we currently have (I swear that figure was more like $5 or 6 million a couple days ago). After trading Garoppolo, we'd have $50+ million in cap space instead of the $30ish million we're expected to have now. The savings would have been dramatically higher, and that's not nothing. It would pay for a year of the Deebo extension and probably more. That said, I was personally always on board with keeping Jimmy and trying to turn him into draft picks this offseason, as I think most people were.

The calls to bench Jimmy really picked up around the time we were 3-5, and I'll admit that I was among them. My thought process was that we were effectively out of the playoff hunt at that point. We were something like four or five games back in the division race. We had lost arguably the most important player on our defense for the season in Verrett (IMO, only Bosa is even close to the significance, when we factor in position and caliber of replacements).

We were 1-5 over the past six games after almost blowing the opening two games to mediocre (or truly bad, in the case of the Lions) teams. Our CBs were a disaster, and outside of Bosa, our pass rush was completely underwhelming at that point (all credit to Kocurek and Ryans for turning that unit around). We weren't utilizing Aiyuk (1 reception for six yards that week, and only one game with more than two catches), Kittle was hurt, Mostert was out for the year. It was F-ing grim. If it was going to be a lost season, we might as well start getting Lance some seasoning. I also felt that the only real chance we had of making a SB run was if Lance played and was a revelation - admittedly that was a huge longshot.

A few weeks after that, I mostly changed my mind as our team rebounded and it became clear that none of the NFC teams were dominant. They all had glaring flaws, and it seemed as if we were as talented as any of them. But it wasn't looking that way earlier when the Bucs, Cards, and Packers were all looking pretty lethal.

In terms of the situation this offseason, IMO, the fact that there is a market for Garoppolo speaks as much or more to the state of the QB position in today's NFL than it necessarily does to Garoppolo. I remember being shocked when we traded Alex Smith for two second-round picks, and I was and am a pretty big Alex Smith fan (though I still thought it was the right decision to trade him and roll with Kaepernick). But the value of competent-yet-limited players speaks more to how hard is it to even find a serviceable guy at that position than the outright talent of those guys. For that reason, we're absolutely running a risk that the guy who replaces him will never be even as good as Jimmy is. But I still think we've got to take a chance on the upside, given the flaws Jimmy has that I have documented exhaustively in this thread and elsewhere. Like Smith, his physical limitations are too great to truly get him over the hump without a truly excellent team surrounding him, particularly when you throw in the repeated, crushing mistakes.

Ultimately, it appears that the FO did handle the situation well. Obviously we'll never know what would have happened if Lance played for half the year, but it's very unlikely we would have made it to within a few minutes of the SB. And Jimmy probably has elevated his value, though the past few games haven't helped much. And at least some of that increase in value is due to the fact that we didn't look to float him until after FA and the draft, when basically no one was looking for a QB, and there aren't a lot of QB options available this year. Let's all hope we get some real value for moving off of him.

In regards to the first paragraph and rolling over cap space. While on the surface yes, cutting Jimmy and rolling over the cap space would have found the 9ers with around 50 mil of cap space this season. However, its VERY important to note that there is a BIG difference between how much you are allowed to spend (available cap space) and what your actual cap number is. The salary cap number does not change because you have extra money to spend. Its basically the same as getting a new credit card with a $10,000 spending limit. While yes, it allows your buying power to increase by $10,000, but you didn't actually gain $10,000 in actual money. Every dollar you spend still counts towards the bottom line, and that bottom line does not change.

So Theoretically yes, in this scenario 9ers could have spent upwards of $50 mil this winter because they had the cap space. However, that would have resulted in the 49ers being WAYYY over the actual cap number. And it would have caused many complications down the line, and in subsequent seasons.

Rolling over cap is the main reason why you see teams get into cap hell. Like the Packers currently being like $45 mil over and the Saints being like $60 mil over the cap. They overspent because they were allowed to, but all they were doing was murdering their actual cap numbers.

As for the Lance vs Jimmy debate. From day one, I always have said that until the 49ers have a clearly better option at QB than Jimmy should be the guy. From what we saw from Lance this season, its pretty safe to say that he was not nearly close to being ready when the season started is still a work in progress. That said, Lance showed he made tremendous strides from his start against Arizona to his start against the Texans late in the season. Of course, play calling played a factor in that. But play calling is made by the guy who sees Trey every single day on the practice field, and in the film room/meetings. In that Arizona game, it was obvious that Kyle thought Trey was quite limited with what he could be trusted with and what he could bring to the table. Whereas in the Texan game, Trey looked like an actual QB out there, not just an athlete taking snaps like he did in the Arizona. This is very encouraging as it shows that Trey is indeed making big strides and we can tangibly see that he is.

When that same guy who sees/talks to Lance everyday determines that Garoppolo gives his team the best chance to win games. I think I will defer to that guy's judgement.

As for Garoppolo's market while of course his talent level/caliber of player he is a very big component to his value. But so does supply and demand, as you alluded to. The 9ers brass aren't dumb. This entire time they have been well aware of what the leaguewide QB landscape is, as well as what this year's draft class is shaping up as. They let all that factor into forming their 2021 QB plan. Everything was calculated, when they executed their plan.

As you mentioned its quite unlikely this team knocks on the door of another super bowl if Trey Lance was given the keys at any point this season. Of course, we'll never know for sure.

But from what we know to be fact, the 9ers had a successful season. They are also set up well moving forward by having a full season of development for the QBOTF, and will be getting assets + (actual) cap space for their much maligned former QB.

You seem to be conflating rolling over cap space with pushing cap hits into the future. They're basically polar opposites. If the Niners had saved $23 million on Garoppolo last season, and rolled it into this offseason, they would have that much more available cap space. Before making any moves, they'd be about 13th in cap space (instead they're 23rd), and upon trading Garoppolo would jump up to 5th. That's in terms of how much money they have to spend.

The Packers and Saints, on the other hand, are rolling SALARY COMMITMENTS into future years to lessen the cap hit in the present. That will eventually kill a team (Saints are, in fact, more like $76 million over the cap, and will have to unload some serious contracts to get under). Rolling cap space into the future is only a good thing, precisely because it does change your ultimate cap figure. For instance, the salary cap for 2022 is $208 million. But let's say we rolled $30 million over. We could now spend $238 million in 2022, while teams that don't roll money over are stuck at the $208 figure. The bottom line does indeed change.

Ultimately, as said, I think holding onto Garoppolo and netting a couple draft picks (assuming that happens) was the right call. Even a big number like $20 million looks pretty small when you realize it's only over a single year, and a mid-level guy on a three-year, $21 million contract will eat it up entirely. Given the draft capital we gave up to get Lance, we're better off recouping some of that and landing a couple cheap players who will be on the roster for the next few years at least.

[CrimsonCrew]

Kind of interesting exercise by the ESPN team, writers playing the role of teams and players, making trade and contract offers, and projecting what will happen with QBs in the offseason:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33192933/simulating-nfl-starting-quarterback-changes-projected-offseason-trade-offers-free-agent-deals-draft-picks-2022

They have us sending Jimmy to Tampa Bay for their second-round pick this year. That's decent return, but of the options here, I'd take the Panthers' offer instead, for two reasons.

First, the Panthers offer more. Their fourth this year, and their second next year. That second is pretty likely to be higher than the Bucs' this year, so we get two players who should at least be in the mix for starting spots. Second, although the Panthers are by no means devoid of talent, and arguably are just a QB away from potentially being quite good, they aren't as talented as the Bucs. If we can get more in exchange, and not help a team that could potentially threaten us in the playoffs, it's a win-win.

I think a second-round pick is pretty reasonable, but we do have leverage here. Teams like the Bucs and Steelers probably won't be legitimately competitive with a rookie QB next year - particularly if it's a guy they're taking in the 20s.

While Gilmore and Donte Jackson are both free agents, you have to think that at least one of those guys will return with an outside chance both do. So Carolina is basically loaded at CB. That being the case, if Carolina wants to enter the Garoppolo sweepstakes, I'd be fishing for CB's with them.

Its INCREDIBLY unlikely they would offer Jaycee Horn, but if they're down I'd be ecstatic with Horn/Garoppolo straight up trade.

But like I said, Horn won't be on the table. So CJ Henderson re-enters the trade discussions. He was involved in 49er trade talks earlier this season. So Garoppolo for Henderson/2023 3rd seems like a solid deal. Carolina already gave a 3rd to Jax for Henderson. So for them it would basically boil down to 2 3rd rounders + Dan Arnold for Garoppolo.

On a side note, I'd like to see the 9ers make a run at Donte Jackson in free agency. However, this regime does not seem to prioritize CB's and doesn't invest many resources to the position.

Horn was the 8th pick in the draft. There is absolutely no chance they move him as part of a Garoppolo trade. Maybe if they were trading for Rodgers or Wilson.

[thesack12]

You seem to be conflating rolling over cap space with pushing cap hits into the future. They're basically polar opposites. If the Niners had saved $23 million on Garoppolo last season, and rolled it into this offseason, they would have that much more available cap space. Before making any moves, they'd be about 13th in cap space (instead they're 23rd), and upon trading Garoppolo would jump up to 5th. That's in terms of how much money they have to spend.

The Packers and Saints, on the other hand, are rolling SALARY COMMITMENTS into future years to lessen the cap hit in the present. That will eventually kill a team (Saints are, in fact, more like $76 million over the cap, and will have to unload some serious contracts to get under). Rolling cap space into the future is only a good thing, precisely because it does change your ultimate cap figure. For instance, the salary cap for 2022 is $208 million. But let's say we rolled $30 million over. We could now spend $238 million in 2022, while teams that don't roll money over are stuck at the $208 figure. The bottom line does indeed change.

Ultimately, as said, I think holding onto Garoppolo and netting a couple draft picks (assuming that happens) was the right call. Even a big number like $20 million looks pretty small when you realize it's only over a single year, and a mid-level guy on a three-year, $21 million contract will eat it up entirely. Given the draft capital we gave up to get Lance, we're better off recouping some of that and landing a couple cheap players who will be on the roster for the next few years at least.

Yes, I'm aware the money they would be "allowed" to spend would increase. In other words, their adjusted salary cap would be increased by the $23 mil they would have rolled over to this year. But the league base cap is still important.

With rollover cap, its a one time use thing. So if they burned all their rollover cap this offseason, they would be obligated to adhere to whatever the base 2023 salary cap would be.

Using round numbers for convenience. Lets say they cut Garoppolo, and rolled that cap over. Which would find them with roughly $50 mil that they "could" spend, but their actual cap number would still be $180 mil. With the base cap being $210, they would only be able to spend $30 mil without exceeding the base cap. So if they spent the $50 mil that they were allowed to they would actually be $20 mil over the base cap going into next season. Fluctuating of course based on the 2023 base cap going up or down
and any money coming off the books after next season. But since they used all their rollover cap, they would be obligated to the 2023 base cap, and would need to somehow shed $20 million off their cap before the 2023 season. When you start being forced to shed salary, is when things can start to snowball.

Admittedly, I'm not capologist but this is layed out as I understand it. So if I'm not comprehending this right feel free to correct me, it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong.

At the end of the day, we're in total agreement that holding Garoppolo was definitely the right move.

[thesack12]

Kind of interesting exercise by the ESPN team, writers playing the role of teams and players, making trade and contract offers, and projecting what will happen with QBs in the offseason:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33192933/simulating-nfl-starting-quarterback-changes-projected-offseason-trade-offers-free-agent-deals-draft-picks-2022

They have us sending Jimmy to Tampa Bay for their second-round pick this year. That's decent return, but of the options here, I'd take the Panthers' offer instead, for two reasons.

First, the Panthers offer more. Their fourth this year, and their second next year. That second is pretty likely to be higher than the Bucs' this year, so we get two players who should at least be in the mix for starting spots. Second, although the Panthers are by no means devoid of talent, and arguably are just a QB away from potentially being quite good, they aren't as talented as the Bucs. If we can get more in exchange, and not help a team that could potentially threaten us in the playoffs, it's a win-win.

I think a second-round pick is pretty reasonable, but we do have leverage here. Teams like the Bucs and Steelers probably won't be legitimately competitive with a rookie QB next year - particularly if it's a guy they're taking in the 20s.

While Gilmore and Donte Jackson are both free agents, you have to think that at least one of those guys will return with an outside chance both do. So Carolina is basically loaded at CB. That being the case, if Carolina wants to enter the Garoppolo sweepstakes, I'd be fishing for CB's with them.

Its INCREDIBLY unlikely they would offer Jaycee Horn, but if they're down I'd be ecstatic with Horn/Garoppolo straight up trade.

But like I said, Horn won't be on the table. So CJ Henderson re-enters the trade discussions. He was involved in 49er trade talks earlier this season. So Garoppolo for Henderson/2023 3rd seems like a solid deal. Carolina already gave a 3rd to Jax for Henderson. So for them it would basically boil down to 2 3rd rounders + Dan Arnold for Garoppolo.

On a side note, I'd like to see the 9ers make a run at Donte Jackson in free agency. However, this regime does not seem to prioritize CB's and doesn't invest many resources to the position.

Horn was the 8th pick in the draft. There is absolutely no chance they move him as part of a Garoppolo trade. Maybe if they were trading for Rodgers or Wilson.

Agreed, and I went on mentioned that Horn wouldn't be on the table.

Still if Carolina is making calls on Jimmy, I am talking CB's with them.

[thesack12]

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Kittle seems to be quite fond of Embree, which is notable. Still outside of Kittle, the 49ers TE position has been quite underwhelming.

For a short period there last season, Dwelley seemed like he held some mild promise but he was invisible this season. Outside of the 3 games Kittle missed this season, Ross never even appeared in a box score.