MIA V. CLIPS, 1/1/2024~ 10:30PM LET'S GET IT!

[dubasilva]

Happy New Year!
Tyler H has a weak game. Tyler wants to be the man and an All-Star. Well, he missed an excellent opportunity to showcase his talents.
I doubt he'll ever be the man.
We need to figure out a way to improve this team. Maybe trade Tyler for a PG that can help us win games. I also think Duncan plays better when he starts.
Keep developing JJJ and Jovic.

[DayofMourning]

Good try OP. Wasnt able to stay up for this one. Looks like we got clamped and couldnt return the favor.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Biggest issue will still remain finding the right 4 next to Bam honestly.

This right here has always been the key to unlocking everything but our stubborn organization continues to go back down to the well of playing undersized 6’5 200 pound wingers at the position. Bam needs a true dirty work banger that can take on bigger players. PJ was only 6’5 but at 250 he was a load down in the box and could cover the wing. His skill set was special here and Spo really unlocked it all for him.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Donovan Mitchel is such a meh fit in this team, with Jimmy in tow. Unless your exchanging Jimmy for a younger 3pt shooting wing that can hit 40%+ off the dribble. I don't like the fit at all, the only reason were passable is because of Herros ability to hit the 3 pointer at an elite level. Getting to the basket at will will only get us so far exchanging Herro for Donovan. Id pass unless were clearly moving on from Jimmy.

Herro shoots 2% higher from 3 on their careers on less volume, that doesn’t offset Mitchell being the far better player and explosive scorer. Jimmy/Bam/Mitchell would be elite now and for the future.

[twix2500]

Got some bad news to report. A doc buddy of mine that works closely with the team has told me that Jimmy has plantar fasciitis. This is why he slowed down last year towards the end of the playoffs and this is why he is playing pretty mediocre to start this season.

Imo plantar fasciitis is one of the worse things you can have as a basketball player and imo Jimmy is now damaged goods

No its not. I have had it numerous time. It hurts like a Bi, but it goes away suddenly. Mine was caused by my shoes.

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

Yea the plantar fasciitis talk is being WAY overblown lol. Chill and let it play out, IF that’s even what it is he’ll be fine with some rest and treatment. I doubt that’s the issue though.

[twix2500]

Biggest issue will still remain finding the right 4 next to Bam honestly.

This right here has always been the key to unlocking everything but our stubborn organization continues to go back down to the well of playing undersized 6’5 200 pound wingers at the position. Bam needs a true dirty work banger that can take on bigger players. PJ was only 6’5 but at 250 he was a load down in the box and could cover the wing. His skill set was special here and Spo really unlocked it all for him.

Tucker biggest weakness was his lack of rebounding. Jaquez might be the best rebounding 4 the Heat has had in Spo era besides Love.

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[dolphinatik]

heat had a decent first half, the second not too much though bam tried to carry us. the thing is that he is not that type of player. the jaken had a pretty lousy game but i dont blame him because he's a rookie. the rest of the team looked it they want it to celebrate new years still lol

either way, i'm not mad. you cant beat a super team like that if you are ailing from injuries and rests. it is what it is. next

I was about to say first half was excellent basketball and shots looks like missiles into the bottom of the net. 2nd half rotations and gameplan was weak. The whole time I was marveling at PG and that this is the player everything thought wouldnt walk again.

[IceColdCubano]

Donovan Mitchel is such a meh fit in this team, with Jimmy in tow. Unless your exchanging Jimmy for a younger 3pt shooting wing that can hit 40%+ off the dribble. I don't like the fit at all, the only reason were passable is because of Herros ability to hit the 3 pointer at an elite level. Getting to the basket at will will only get us so far exchanging Herro for Donovan. Id pass unless were clearly moving on from Jimmy.

Herro shoots 2% higher from 3 on their careers on less volume, that doesn’t offset Mitchell being the far better player and explosive scorer. Jimmy/Bam/Mitchell would be elite now and for the future.

I am using this years Herro as the measuring stick not his averages, he is 23 years old and should be improving as seasons keep getting behind him, its not like were comparing season vets in their prime who have multiple years of data we can lock down were their numbers are steady. I would look at what Herro provides now and possibly in the future vs what he did when he was still growing into his skillset. Donovan is still young enough that he could still have a progression band as well, he is just slightly closer to his prime, so their might be less of an improvement band. I don't question the fact that Mitchell is a far better explosive scorer, I just don't think he fits as well with Jimmy as part of the big three. Its like having a Ferrari with one flat tire, its gonna move quickly but the ride is gonna suck most of the time and feel awkard around corners. Dame Lillard would have fit like a glove here because of his ability to shoot and create a vacuum when he moves with the ball. way too many times Ive seen Donovan get taken out of games when the defense builds a wall to the paint or they put a taller defender on him, his jumper is streaky and he isn't as good in the mid range game.

[twix2500]

Donovan Mitchel is such a meh fit in this team, with Jimmy in tow. Unless your exchanging Jimmy for a younger 3pt shooting wing that can hit 40%+ off the dribble. I don't like the fit at all, the only reason were passable is because of Herros ability to hit the 3 pointer at an elite level. Getting to the basket at will will only get us so far exchanging Herro for Donovan. Id pass unless were clearly moving on from Jimmy.

Herro shoots 2% higher from 3 on their careers on less volume, that doesn’t offset Mitchell being the far better player and explosive scorer. Jimmy/Bam/Mitchell would be elite now and for the future.

I am using this years Herro as the measuring stick not his averages, he is 23 years old and should be improving as seasons keep getting behind him, its not like were comparing season vets in their prime who have multiple years of data we can lock down were their numbers are steady. I would look at what Herro provides now and possibly in the future vs what he did when he was still growing into his skillset. Donovan is still young enough that he could still have a progression band as well, he is just slightly closer to his prime, so their might be less of an improvement band. I don't question the fact that Mitchell is a far better explosive scorer, I just don't think he fits as well with Jimmy as part of the big three. Its like having a Ferrari with one flat tire, its gonna move quickly but the ride is gonna suck most of the time and feel awkard around corners. Dame Lillard would have fit like a glove here because of his ability to shoot and create a vacuum when he moves with the ball. way too many times Ive seen Donovan get taken out of games when the defense builds a wall to the paint or they put a taller defender on him, his jumper is streaky and he isn't as good in the mid range game.

I will be careful to use Herro current averages as a overall permanent measuring stick. Hes only played 12 games. He has a history of starting the season off high.

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[IceColdCubano]

Herro shoots 2% higher from 3 on their careers on less volume, that doesn’t offset Mitchell being the far better player and explosive scorer. Jimmy/Bam/Mitchell would be elite now and for the future.

I am using this years Herro as the measuring stick not his averages, he is 23 years old and should be improving as seasons keep getting behind him, its not like were comparing season vets in their prime who have multiple years of data we can lock down were their numbers are steady. I would look at what Herro provides now and possibly in the future vs what he did when he was still growing into his skillset. Donovan is still young enough that he could still have a progression band as well, he is just slightly closer to his prime, so their might be less of an improvement band. I don't question the fact that Mitchell is a far better explosive scorer, I just don't think he fits as well with Jimmy as part of the big three. Its like having a Ferrari with one flat tire, its gonna move quickly but the ride is gonna suck most of the time and feel awkard around corners. Dame Lillard would have fit like a glove here because of his ability to shoot and create a vacuum when he moves with the ball. way too many times Ive seen Donovan get taken out of games when the defense builds a wall to the paint or they put a taller defender on him, his jumper is streaky and he isn't as good in the mid range game.

I will be careful to use Herro current averages as a overall permanent measuring stick. Hes only played 12 games. He has a history of starting the season off high.

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Obviously we need to wait for the season to finish, but even so he has been playing much improved from last year, even in comp to the beginning of the season. His movement and quicker decisions is off the bounce, hell his dribble has gotten better. The current iteration of Herro fits better, its left to see if he continues, but its looking like it should be maintain.

FYI I just looked at his splits for the 2022-23 season by month, he did slightly better from FEB-APRIL than from OCT-JAN on percentages. Herro has played a total of 15 games to date. Last year looks to be an outlier as well seeing as he has improved in all categories every year and took a slight dip last year, looks to have picked right off where he left off on the improvement trajectory. He may never be an isolation scorer like Donovan, but he is a better fit to our structured style of play so as long as Jimmy is part of the big three.

Past that, once Jimmy is gone which looks like he is degrading faster that wax inside a cremation chamber set to high we may pull the trigger and have him here ready to resign once Jimmy deactivates.

[oreon]

Happy New Year!
Tyler H has a weak game. Tyler wants to be the man and an All-Star. Well, he missed an excellent opportunity to showcase his talents.
I doubt he'll ever be the man.
We need to figure out a way to improve this team. Maybe trade Tyler for a PG that can help us win games. I also think Duncan plays better when he starts.
Keep developing JJJ and Jovic.

Ya'll need to chill with the Tyler talk. Let season play out first. This was a tough matchup for Herro and the team as a whole. They were going to loose this game.
Clips had PG13 and Kawhi on Herro. On pretty much every position Clips were bigger than Heat. Herro struggled getting into his spots because of his poor handling. The only player who had any matchup advanatage was Bam. And for this game they should have went to him for pretty much every possession.
Games like this, is where you miss Butler. Herro is gonna struggle being guarded by the other team best defender especially if they are PG13 and Kawhi. Butler taking on that challenge makes it easier for everyone.
And on the other side, defensively we could not match up. Again on pretty much every position outsized and Clips like Heat have tons of shooting. And also our 3 best wing defenders were out. I didn't see how they were gonna win this one
This is a L you chalk up to injuries and scheduling and move on.

[Bishop45]

Y'all finna make the Lakers GT or do I need to double dip?

[dubasilva]

Happy New Year!
Tyler H has a weak game. Tyler wants to be the man and an All-Star. Well, he missed an excellent opportunity to showcase his talents.
I doubt he'll ever be the man.
We need to figure out a way to improve this team. Maybe trade Tyler for a PG that can help us win games. I also think Duncan plays better when he starts.
Keep developing JJJ and Jovic.

Ya'll need to chill with the Tyler talk. Let season play out first. This was a tough matchup for Herro and the team as a whole. They were going to loose this game.
Clips had PG13 and Kawhi on Herro. On pretty much every position Clips were bigger than Heat. Herro struggled getting into his spots because of his poor handling. The only player who had any matchup advanatage was Bam. And for this game they should have went to him for pretty much every possession.
Games like this, is where you miss Butler. Herro is gonna struggle being guarded by the other team best defender especially if they are PG13 and Kawhi. Butler taking on that challenge makes it easier for everyone.
And on the other side, defensively we could not match up. Again on pretty much every position outsized and Clips like Heat have tons of shooting. And also our 3 best wing defenders were out. I didn't see how they were gonna win this one
This is a L you chalk up to injuries and scheduling and move on.

The kid wants to be a star and gets paid well. Playing against those players should be an excellent opportunity to showcase his game. I don't think he has it. Good role player and it might help us get another player that will make the Heat better.

[IceColdCubano]

Happy New Year!
Tyler H has a weak game. Tyler wants to be the man and an All-Star. Well, he missed an excellent opportunity to showcase his talents.
I doubt he'll ever be the man.
We need to figure out a way to improve this team. Maybe trade Tyler for a PG that can help us win games. I also think Duncan plays better when he starts.
Keep developing JJJ and Jovic.

Ya'll need to chill with the Tyler talk. Let season play out first. This was a tough matchup for Herro and the team as a whole. They were going to loose this game.
Clips had PG13 and Kawhi on Herro. On pretty much every position Clips were bigger than Heat. Herro struggled getting into his spots because of his poor handling. The only player who had any matchup advanatage was Bam. And for this game they should have went to him for pretty much every possession.
Games like this, is where you miss Butler. Herro is gonna struggle being guarded by the other team best defender especially if they are PG13 and Kawhi. Butler taking on that challenge makes it easier for everyone.
And on the other side, defensively we could not match up. Again on pretty much every position outsized and Clips like Heat have tons of shooting. And also our 3 best wing defenders were out. I didn't see how they were gonna win this one
This is a L you chalk up to injuries and scheduling and move on.

The kid wants to be a star and gets paid well. Playing against those players should be an excellent opportunity to showcase his game. I don't think he has it. Good role player and it might help us get another player that will make the Heat better.

Lets discuss this a bit in detail, because I have been part of this board for many many years, hell I probably spent over 3-4 years reading these forums before registering or signing up. Never in the history of Heat fandom have I seen so many people completely give up on a young Heat talent like Tyler Herro. I guess it's problably because of the Jimmy window and the stakes. Outside of that I didn't see this same effort on Beasley, Derick Jones Jr, Justise Winslow, etc. Guys that were young, high upside, tons of talent never got healthy, never put it together, too immature, complete bust in the end.

Show me a single player earning 28-30M a year playing the 2guard position that you would trade Herro for 1for1 that would instantly make this team better and is producing at near or better stats on their current team. That player needs to be between the ages of 22-24 years of age (because you cannot compare a guy farther into their prime), with high upside as comp for this to work. This is all about value, it can't be a combination of two guys because I can combine two players on cheap deals and replace someone like Donovan Mitchell with a better fit. Do that homework, if you can find one that's great and if you can find more that's even better. The fact is Herro is paid at his value, and because he was paid during the right shift, he is actually a great contract based on production moving forward compared to what players are getting now.

I am going to do some of the leg work for you to simplify things:
If I go on ESPN's player efficiency site and focus on PER by position -
Tyler Herro is at 17.03 (labeled as PG, however he is a SG) - That puts him at position #13
Who are the 12 SG ahead of Herro at the Guard position?
1- Donovan Mitchell (age27)
2- Devin Booker (age27)
3-Terry Rozier (age29)
4- James Harden (age34)
5- Anthony Edwards (age22)
6- CJ McCollum (age32)
7-Desmond Bane (age25)
8- Anfernee Simons (age24)
9-Jaylen Brown (age27)
10-Dante Exum (age28)
11- Immanuel Quickley (age24)
13- Lonnie Walker IV (age25)

Ok so looking at that list the only players young than Herro producing better than him are, drum roll:
Anthony Edwards at age 22.
Other player players who would fit the criteria of being 22-24 to comp better than him are:
Anfernee Simons at age 24
Immanuel Quickley at age 24

So the list now goes like this:
1- Anthony Edwards (age22) 26.2ppg @46%FG
2- Anfernee Simons (age24) 24.6ppg @43.6%FG
3- Immanuel Quickley (age24) 15.4ppg @45%FG
4- Tyler Herro (age23) 22.7ppg @44.2%FG

Issues with trading for the above:
Minnesota is not trading Anthony Edwards, first of all because that is a legit current Superstar with ridiculous upside. Second even if they were high on crack, and Pat Riley held them up at gun point he is making 13M dollars don't match and is soon to be given a 260M extension. He is a free agent in 2024 lets see what happens there.
the other two Miami would not trade because the FO and most fans agree that Herro is better than both Anfernee Simons and Immanuel Quickly.

The second thing we want to discuss is why if he had an opportunity to showcase himself did he not, if you are blind to the entire years worth of games against great defenders and just pick this game that is a bad way to judge a player on a single game. What happens when our team on any given game one of our good defenders like Caleb Martin, Highsmith, Bam shut down another superstar and force them to a 5-24 game. To those players automatically lose their value as a star because we shut them down in a game in January 1/3 of the season in. No they are still valued the same, they have bad games and good games, the math needs to be you have way more good games than bad games. It all averages out.

I want you to just look up, the stats on shooting guards drafted young, and what they averaged at 23 years old and compare Herro to them. You will be surprised to see that Herro is comparable or better on like 95% of those guys outside of like all time greats. The story is still being written for him, and he has shown to improve every single year statistically. Hell we haven't had a chance to see the 20ppg scorer in the starting lineup version of him in the playoffs because the year he finally got there as a starter and not a microwave scorer off the bench, he broke his hand in game one of the Milwaukee series. Context is important when judging players.