Miami Heat 2023/2024 Regular Season - Thread 3.0

[Daffy]

Read on Twitter

Did we just fix our 4th quarter offense as well?

I think so. A lot of those games where we had leads that we blew he probably stops us from losing 60-70% of those games.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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AirP, you didn’t want a big star you wanted Goran Dragic level scoring, well here it is but better

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Jalen Smith from Indiana is a guy I would love to have on this team.

Same, his size shooting and skillset would be awesome to see next to Bam and Jimmy in the front court and he’s only like 22. No clue what Indy’s plans are for him

[twix2500]

It’s fools gold but only because he’ll be starting along Herro who is likely to be taking shots and usage from him; if not based on all metrics this year it’s far from fools gold

I dont expect this team to become a PnR heavy team. I think Spo is gonna continue to utilize Bam as a point guard a lot more making him a facilitator hoping to create a mismatch problem. Off ball cutting is gonna be vital, not pnr.

We damn near spam pick and roll as it is and now we’ve just added the 2nd best/most efficient pick and roll ball handler in the league, we will be running a lot of pick and roll or we’re not serious about winning lol

This year the Heat are 20th in the league in the frequency of their plays being Pick N Roll. The Hornets were first in frequency. I do not see Spo completely changing the offense midseason. Most likely adds Rozier into the current sets they have in place.

If they want to increase their pnr sets. May likely have to play Duncan and Herro together a lot to open the paint

The Heat are 8th in post up offensive frequency because of Jaime, Bam and Butler. Been kind of their bread and butter

[MettaWorldPanda]

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Royce maybe because he’s expiring, I would love DFS but I don’t see a match because of his future salary. Both would be great fits and an upgrade at the 4.

BK already has a cheap Herro in Cam Thomas. Would have to be Duncan and a 1st. Probably messing around with the 2029 pick like they did with the 2027. Trading Martin and Bryant for O’Neale makes no sense. Martin is the better player.

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

AirP, you didn’t want a big star you wanted Goran Dragic level scoring, well here it is but better

I wanted a vet scorer, just wish he had a better playoff resume.

On the DFS... if you can turn Robinson into DFS wouldn't the team be much better this year and for the next 2-3 years?

You have Rozier and Herro still for 3pt shooting, you can even use Highsmith out there as a 3&D option, Love, maybe get away with Jaquez Jr and possibly just convert Swider for another high volume shooter when on the court.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I dont expect this team to become a PnR heavy team. I think Spo is gonna continue to utilize Bam as a point guard a lot more making him a facilitator hoping to create a mismatch problem. Off ball cutting is gonna be vital, not pnr.

We damn near spam pick and roll as it is and now we’ve just added the 2nd best/most efficient pick and roll ball handler in the league, we will be running a lot of pick and roll or we’re not serious about winning lol

This year the Heat are 20th in the league in the frequency of their plays being Pick N Roll. The Hornets were first in frequency. I do not see Spo completely changing the offense midseason. Most likely adds Rozier into the current sets they have in place.

If they want to increase their pnr sets. May likely have to play Duncan and Herro together a lot to open the paint

The Heat are 8th in post up offensive frequency because of Jaime, Bam and Butler. Been kind of their bread and butter

He better change the offense midseason, we’re a bottom 5 offense right now

[inhabitMiami]

I dont expect this team to become a PnR heavy team. I think Spo is gonna continue to utilize Bam as a point guard a lot more making him a facilitator hoping to create a mismatch problem. Off ball cutting is gonna be vital, not pnr.

We damn near spam pick and roll as it is and now we’ve just added the 2nd best/most efficient pick and roll ball handler in the league, we will be running a lot of pick and roll or we’re not serious about winning lol

This year the Heat are 20th in the league in the frequency of their plays being Pick N Roll. The Hornets were first in frequency. I do not see Spo completely changing the offense midseason. Most likely adds Rozier into the current sets they have in place.

If they want to increase their pnr sets. May likely have to play Duncan and Herro together a lot to open the paint

The Heat are 8th in post up offensive frequency because of Jaime, Bam and Butler. Been kind of their bread and butter

I mean a big part of why we're 20th in P&R frequency is that we didn't have a multi-threat guard/wing to do it with Bam. Ideally it'd be Jimmy but his lack of shooting makes things difficult. Herro is not yet mature enough in his game (and his ballhandling is too weak) to do so in a way that produces consistent results. I rather not talk about Lowry.

[twix2500]

I am just thinking outloud. Lets go with the theory 3Hammy has and I think many others want. That this team converts into a heavy PnR and Kickout team similar to the Waiters and Dragic peak together. I think that is what many envision. They will really need to stretch the floor. That team kept 3 of the four of Dragic, Waiters, Ellington and Babbit stretching the floor. That means a lot more Duncan and Love and possibly Jovic being the third shooter. That means less Highsmith and Martin, and mean its more likely Heat would target Olynyk and Tucker.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

AirP, you didn’t want a big star you wanted Goran Dragic level scoring, well here it is but better

I wanted a vet scorer, just wish he had a better playoff resume.

On the DFS... if you can turn Robinson into DFS wouldn't the team be much better this year and for the next 2-3 years?

Possibly but that doesn’t solve our 2nd apron issue unfortunately. DFS is Highsmith on steroids except a slightly worse defender imo. They’re identical size wise, DFS is 2 inches taller but they weigh the same and both have 7 foot wingspans. Hes the better shooter for sure. It would be cool to have both and have a lineup of Jimmy, Martin, Highsmith, DFS, and Bam out there when you need a stop

[3ammy3uck3ts]

We damn near spam pick and roll as it is and now we’ve just added the 2nd best/most efficient pick and roll ball handler in the league, we will be running a lot of pick and roll or we’re not serious about winning lol

This year the Heat are 20th in the league in the frequency of their plays being Pick N Roll. The Hornets were first in frequency. I do not see Spo completely changing the offense midseason. Most likely adds Rozier into the current sets they have in place.

If they want to increase their pnr sets. May likely have to play Duncan and Herro together a lot to open the paint

The Heat are 8th in post up offensive frequency because of Jaime, Bam and Butler. Been kind of their bread and butter

I mean a big part of why we're 20th in P&R frequency is that we didn't have a multi-threat guard/wing to do it with Bam. Ideally it'd be Jimmy but his lack of shooting makes things difficult. Herro is not yet mature enough in his game (and his ballhandling is too weak) to do so in a way that produces consistent results. I rather not talk about Lowry.

I’m actually baffled we’re 20th because Bam sets like 3 screens minimum for ball handlers a possession it seems lol no one can gain separation without them.

[greg4012]

I don't understand how people feel like Rozier doesn't move the needle for us. Sometimes you don't need a big name star. Aaron Gordon was thought to be a losing player on a bad team and look what he did for Denver. Gordon is a big part of what they do now.

If we go into the playoffs healthy we're definitely improved as far as offensive help around Butler. We basically doing the following:

Gabe into Rozier
Struss into Herro (hate him or love him he won't play as bad as max did all those games)
Duncan improved offensively
Lowry into Jaquez
Bam also improved offensively.
Love has also been better with a full year in the system and Richardson even has his moments.

We no longer need Jimmy to go nuclear. We can even have an off night from 1 of Herro or Bam now and won't be completely screwed now that we have Rozier and Jaquez providing an offensive punch for us.


Our biggest issue now remains our defense not being as good as last year or seasons prior.

Agreed. Increased Haywood implementation will have something to say about the last point.

With the ballhandling/playmaking of Jimmy, Bam, and Jaime, I'm interested to see Spo experiment with some 6'6+ lineups. Maybe something like

Caleb (obviously not a PG but can defend guards)
Jimmy
Jaime
Highsmith
Bam

[twix2500]

This year the Heat are 20th in the league in the frequency of their plays being Pick N Roll. The Hornets were first in frequency. I do not see Spo completely changing the offense midseason. Most likely adds Rozier into the current sets they have in place.

If they want to increase their pnr sets. May likely have to play Duncan and Herro together a lot to open the paint

The Heat are 8th in post up offensive frequency because of Jaime, Bam and Butler. Been kind of their bread and butter

I mean a big part of why we're 20th in P&R frequency is that we didn't have a multi-threat guard/wing to do it with Bam. Ideally it'd be Jimmy but his lack of shooting makes things difficult. Herro is not yet mature enough in his game (and his ballhandling is too weak) to do so in a way that produces consistent results. I rather not talk about Lowry.

I’m actually baffled we’re 20th because Bam sets like 3 screens minimum for ball handlers a possession it seems lol no one can gain separation without them.

I mean who else sets screens? Love does but his mins is sporatic. Not a heavy min guy. And much of the screens are not pnr.

Maybe this is were Jovic can make himself more vaulable. I have notice a proble with Jovic, he slips screens a lot. He fakes as if he gonna screen and cuts to the basket early which a lot times causes the ball handler to get double if he doesnt slip the pass.

[SerialChiller]

Dwyane Wade just dropped his 2nd episode of his new podcast. He sits down the Pat Riley in this one. Should be a very interesting convo!

Watch on YouTube

[greg4012]

I dont expect this team to become a PnR heavy team. I think Spo is gonna continue to utilize Bam as a point guard a lot more making him a facilitator hoping to create a mismatch problem. Off ball cutting is gonna be vital, not pnr.

We damn near spam pick and roll as it is and now we’ve just added the 2nd best/most efficient pick and roll ball handler in the league, we will be running a lot of pick and roll or we’re not serious about winning lol

This year the Heat are 20th in the league in the frequency of their plays being Pick N Roll. The Hornets were first in frequency. I do not see Spo completely changing the offense midseason. Most likely adds Rozier into the current sets they have in place.

If they want to increase their pnr sets. May likely have to play Duncan and Herro together a lot to open the paint

The Heat are 8th in post up offensive frequency because of Jaime, Bam and Butler. Been kind of their bread and butter

Makes sense--especially with Miami having no ballhandler that ranked top 30 in pick and roll efficiency (so basically the worst pick and roll ballhandler situation in the league). I would taper down pick and roll usage in that scenario, also.

I attribute at least some of that to the fact that Lowry almost never looked to cross the 3-point line. NBA tracking has Lowry averaging 2 possessions per game as a pick and roll handler (around 108th in the league).

Last year Miami was 15th in pick and roll frequency at 18.3 possessions (17% of possessions) during the regular season, but jumped to the highest frequency in the playoffs of any team that advanced past round 1 (2nd highest possessions per game overall)--23.1 possessions per game (21.8% of possessions). The trend with Miami leaning heavier on pick and roll in the playoffs tracks in the 2021-2022 playoffs, as well (once again 2nd in frequency).

I think the personnel change will push Miami closer to league average in pick and roll usage--and I again expect it to be an important staple for post-season play, as that is when Spo puts an end to the experiments and developmental approach he often employs in the regular season.

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

AirP, you didn’t want a big star you wanted Goran Dragic level scoring, well here it is but better

I wanted a vet scorer, just wish he had a better playoff resume.

On the DFS... if you can turn Robinson into DFS wouldn't the team be much better this year and for the next 2-3 years?

Possibly but that doesn’t solve our 2nd apron issue unfortunately. DFS is Highsmith on steroids except a slightly worse defender imo. They’re identical size wise, DFS is 2 inches taller but they weigh the same and both have 7 foot wingspans. Hes the better shooter for sure. It would be cool to have both and have a lineup of Jimmy, Martin, Highsmith, DFS, and Bam out there when you need a stop

He's around 4 million cheaper per year than Robinson, a good to great switchable defender, shooting 40% from the corner 3 (37% overall) and he's also under contract for the next 1-2 years (player option). If Miami doesn't switch out one of their bigger contracts, Miami may be losing some players they can't pay for.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=dorian+finney-smith+stats+from+the+corner+3

[twix2500]

Funny the Heat are top ten in post ups and cuts. Number 1 in Misc plays lol. Explains when I joke about Heat not running a cohesive play just randomness

[twix2500]

We damn near spam pick and roll as it is and now we’ve just added the 2nd best/most efficient pick and roll ball handler in the league, we will be running a lot of pick and roll or we’re not serious about winning lol

This year the Heat are 20th in the league in the frequency of their plays being Pick N Roll. The Hornets were first in frequency. I do not see Spo completely changing the offense midseason. Most likely adds Rozier into the current sets they have in place.

If they want to increase their pnr sets. May likely have to play Duncan and Herro together a lot to open the paint

The Heat are 8th in post up offensive frequency because of Jaime, Bam and Butler. Been kind of their bread and butter

Makes sense--especially with Miami having no ballhandler that ranked top 30 in pick and roll efficiency (so basically the worst pick and roll ballhandler situation in the league). I would taper down pick and roll usage in that scenario, also.

I attribute at least some of that to the fact that Lowry almost never looked to cross the 3-point line. NBA tracking has Lowry averaging 2 possessions per game as a pick and roll handler (around 108th in the league).

Last year Miami was 15th in pick and roll frequency at 18.3 possessions (17% of possessions) during the regular season, but jumped to the highest frequency in the playoffs of any team that advanced past round 1 (2nd highest possessions per game overall)--23.1 possessions per game (21.8% of possessions). The trend with Miami leaning heavier on pick and roll in the playoffs tracks in the 2021-2022 playoffs, as well (once again 2nd in frequency).

I think the personnel change will push Miami closer to league average in pick and roll usage--and I again expect it to be an important staple for post-season play, as that is when Spo puts an end to the experiments and developmental approach he often employs in the regular season.

I can see that because it becomes the Jimmy Butler show and Spo defaults to pnr when he doesn't know what to do

[greg4012]

Funny the Heat are top ten in post ups and cuts. Number 1 in Misc plays lol. Explains when I joke about Heat not running a cohesive play just randomness

It's all in service of post-season play. When a team is overly systematic it can be short-circuited with gameplanning in a playoff setting.

Hence the regular season system squads that fizzle out being overly reliant on a system and style of bball that can allow them to keep advantage through the regular season but can't be counted on in playoff bball.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

I wanted a vet scorer, just wish he had a better playoff resume.

On the DFS... if you can turn Robinson into DFS wouldn't the team be much better this year and for the next 2-3 years?

Possibly but that doesn’t solve our 2nd apron issue unfortunately. DFS is Highsmith on steroids except a slightly worse defender imo. They’re identical size wise, DFS is 2 inches taller but they weigh the same and both have 7 foot wingspans. Hes the better shooter for sure. It would be cool to have both and have a lineup of Jimmy, Martin, Highsmith, DFS, and Bam out there when you need a stop

He's around 4 million cheaper per year than Robinson, a good to great switchable defender, shooting 40% from the corner 3 (37% overall) and he's also under contract for the next 1-2 years (player option). If Miami doesn't switch out one of their bigger contracts, Miami may be losing some players they can't pay for.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=dorian+finney-smith+stats+from+the+corner+3

I’m not sure that $4M does much for us bigger picture though; like next season wouldn’t we be having to send out DFS or Herro to get under the 2nd apron? We’ve basically wiped out majority of the money we were going to save for Lowry expiring already.

Also, they want 2 1sts for DFS which is crazy