HAWKS OFFSEASON / DRAFT THREAD 20-21

[GRADEN]

Been an interesting season, oui?!

Anyway you look at it though the single most important thing was accomplished; Kirby Dach improving. He looked like a future #1 center during the 9 game playoff run. Everything after that fact is a distant second in terms of importance. Sure, we have a bunch of issues and are strung up in large term and money with our veterans... but there are ways around this. The draft is typically the way to do this and I'd like to dive into both our current organizational depth and the current crop of prospects in the draft.

This is a big draft for us: Do we trade Saad for a 25-50 selection? Do we actually get a high ceiling guy (Lapierre, Mercer, Amirov) or do we shrink away and take a safe selection with limited upside (Jarvis, Zary, Brisson).... Do we shy away from defense with our current blue line stable. One thing is for sure, if Stan and MK don't take a goalie in those top 110 picks they will have made a big mistake.

Here... we.... go

Current Depth:

LW: Saad, DeBrincat, Sutter (R), Shaw, Highmore, Hagel, Teply, Kayumov, Quenneville, Soderlund, Foo, Slavin

C: Toews, Dach, Strome, Kampf, Pirri, Kurashev, Barrett, Johnson, Wise, Nilsson, Hakkarainen

RW: Kane, Kubalik, Caggulia, Carpenter, Nylander, Chalupa, Entwistle, Altybarmakian, Saarela, Morrison, Nordgren


LD: Keith, De Haan, Matta, Koekkoek, Carlsson, Beaudin, Kalynuk, Seeler, Gilbert, Vlasic, Krys, Demin, Laavainen, Ess

RD: Boqvist, Murphy, Mitchell, Seabrook, Regula, Moberg, Galvas


G: Crawford, Delia, Lankanen, Tompkins, Basse


Biggest Needs: C, G, RD, RW, C, LW, C


Best Outcome for the Draft:

17. C-RW Dawson Mercer (Lapierre, Amirov, Reichel considered) - Highly competitive forward with position flexibility. Great hands and balance on the attack. Very rare; he chose to move so he could play in the Q which is typically all Quebec natives. This is a very mature player with a balanced skill range. His game has evolved to more playmaking vs his shot first start to his career. Mercer is a player I could see go as high as 9-10 or as low as 19-20 but he has NHL RW written all over him.

46. G Drew Commesso (Neighbors, Mysak, Weisblatt considered) - I love this prospect, I can't help it. I think the Hawks need to get him at all costs. Could he be available in 20-40 picks? Maybe. I'm not willing to wait, take him now. Commesso is a leader amongst men, his path to NHL Starter is clear too. He will be a 3 year starter in Boston and he will come out of that a year away from being a backup and then a year from being an NHL Starter. Thats 4 seasons to the NHL and 5 to full time starter. He is stout and determined to stand his ground and athletic enough to make the big stops. Has a very strong glove and has an insanely determined demeanor. This is the player the Hawks need.

76. D Tyler Kleven - Do I think he makes it this far? Maybe, but I feel his position is in that 65-95 range. Great sized D man maybe the less heralded of the 3 top US Dev D prospects. This is a straight forward bottom pairing guy that is going to stay home and complete his assignments.

80. C Evan Vierling - If he is still on the board, the Hawks must take him. He is a perfect fit for our needs. He is an average sized center but he has a gritty 2 way game. His compete level can't be questioned and he works hard on board battles. With just 1 year with Barrie and a summer birthday I expect Evan to go 2 more with the Colts before the AHL and then Hawks TC. Its a long play pick but with high upside. Skating / lower body strength / shot selection should all improve with Barrie.

more to come

[GRADEN]

110. LW Carter Savoie - I see experts with him ranked as high as 56 in some cases.... I mean thats BS, it has everything to do with his last name and his gaudy numbers at such a low level. Carter Savoie is a 4-6th round prospect. Small goal-scorer that has great release points on multiple shot selections. Doesn't have much else to his game other than that but at a low level is dominating on the stat sheet. He needs to see real competition which is why he is likely to be passed over in favor of more ready to advance prospects. He is worth a mid round selection to see if his shot can translate through the next 3-4 levels.

141. C Oliver Tarnstrom - Slender balanced center with a nice feel for the game. Eyes up passer that has good StT crispness. He is a little behind on the age to level over there, but he projects as a long play possible holdover and sell or trade his rights in 4-5 years asset.

172. D Luke Reid - Taking a local kid with a hail mary round seems better than anything else. Im sure a lot of teams will start considering Reid in the early 100s, however he is already 19 after his Steele days and will be going to NH for college for 3-4 years. If I was betting, Id guess that Reid is more than likely to be a 4 year college player that will make it to UFA and forgo his drafted ELC. Its a player that has good upside as a moderately decent chance at the very least making a training amp competitive for others.

The Big Board 100:

This is MY opinion and not that common amongst others. Ive studied these kids the best I can while I always keep in mind how they would translate to the hardest competition:

[GRADEN]

1. LW Lafreniere
2. C-RW Stutzle
3. C Rossi
4. D Sanderson
5. RW Holtz
6. C Byfield
7. G Askarov
8. C-LW Perfetti
9. D Drysdale
10. LW Amirov
11. C Lundell
12. C Lapierre
13. D Guhle
14. RW Mercer
15. RW Quinn
16. D Wallinder
17. LW Raymond
18. D Schneider
19. D Barron
20. LW Reichel
21. D Andrae
22. LW Torgerrson
23. D Grans
24. C Zary
25. D Poirier
26. RW Foerster
27. RW Jarvis
28. C Bourque
29. D O'Rourke
30. C Bourdeleau
31. C Khusnudinov
32. RW Perrault
33. C Greig
34. C Brisson
35. D Grans
36. C Smilanic
37. C Mysak
38. Gunnel
39. LW Tuch
40. LW Sourdif
41. LW Neighbors
42. G Commesso
43. C Holloway
44. D Cormier
45. RW Peterka
46. C Hirvonen
47. RW Weisblatt
48. D Hunt
49. C Foudy
50. C Peterson

[GRADEN]

51. RW Nybeck
52. D Viro
53. C Niederbach
54. C Finley
55. D Mukhamadullin
56. C Zlodeyev
57. C Ponomarev
58. RW Colangelo
59. D Jurmo
60. D Powell
61. LW Gushchin
62. LW Tullio
63. D Niemela
64. C Biondi
65. D Faber
66. LW Cuylle
67. D Kuznetsov
68. RW Chromiak
69. LW Heineman
70. C Farrell
71. G Daws
72. RW Simontaival
73. RW Suni
74. LW Jarventie
75. LW Berard
76. LW Hanas
77. RW Groshev
78. C Peterson
79. C Rochette
80. RW Francis
81. RW Lafrierriere
82. D Nikishin
83. LW Beryozkin
84. LW Stranges
85. RW Dufour
86. C Vierling
87. RW Rolston
88. RW Miettinen
89. D Kleven
90. D Klikorka
91. LW Magnusson
92. RW McClennon
93. C Ljungman
94. C Pytlik
95. D Kaiser
96. D Benning
97. G Bednar
98. RW Tyutnev
99. RW Coe
100. D Nickl

That's a really really good top 100 players for a draft year. This will 100% be a year where a star player will emerge in those picked in that 50-125 range you watch! C Finley, D Powell, RW Chromiak, RW Laferriere, C Vierling, RW McClennon could all be big time players in the NHL in a few years.

Here is my 1st round mock (no trades)... I am also including their NHL 2020 projection (imo) and the first number is how many seasons it should take them to make the NHL as a full time player. Please note that this is how "I" would draft and not what I think the teams will do.

1. NYR - LW Lafreniere - RTP Franchise MED
2. LAK - C/RW Stutzle - RTP Elite MED
3. OTT - C Byfield - 2 Elite LOW
4. DET - C Rossi - 1/2 Elite LOW
5. OTT - RW Holtz - RTP Elite LOW
6. ANA - D Drysdale - 1 Top 4 HIGH
7. NJD - D Sanderson - 1 Top 4 HIGH
8. BUF - C/RW Perfetti - 1 Top 6 HIGH
9. MIN - C Lundell - 1 Top 6 HIGH
10. WIN - G Askarov - 4 Elite Low
11. NSH - RW Quinn - 2 Top 6 MED
12. FLP - D Guhle - 2 Top 4 MED
13. CAR - C Lapierre - 2 Top 6 MED
14. EDM - LW Amirov - 2 Top 9 MED
15. TOR - D Schneider - 2 Top 4 MED
16. MTL - RW Raymond - 2 Top 6 MED
17. CHI - RW Mercer - 3 Top 6 MED
18. NJD - C Bordeleau - 3 Top 6 LOW
19. CAL - RW Jarvis - 2 Top 6 MED
20. NJD - RW Foerster - 2 Top 9 MED
21. CLB - C Zary - 1 Top 9 MED
22. NYR - C Bourque - 3 Top 9 MED
23. PHI - C Holloway - 4 Top 9 LOW
24. COL - C Foudy - 3 Top 9 LOW
25. WAS - RW Reichel - 2 Top 9 LOW
26. STL - D O'Rourke - 3 Top 6 D MED
27. ANA - LW Torgerrson - 2 Top 9 MED
28. OTT - D Wallinder - 3 Top 6 D MED
29. VGK - D Poirier - 4 Top 4 MED
30. DAL - D Grans - 3 Top 6 D MED
31. SJS - D Barron - 3 Top 4 LOW

[GRADEN]

2nd Round without projections:

32. DET - D Andrae
33. OTT - C Smilanic
34. SJS - RW Perrault
35. LAK - RW Peterka
36. ANA - C Mysak
37. NSH - C Brisson
38. BUF - D Hunt
39. MIN - C Greig
40. WIN - D Cormier
41. CAR - LW Gunler
42. NSH - C Khusnutdinov
43. FLP - LW Sourdif
44. TOR - LW Tuch
45. DET - LW Neighbors
46. CHI - G Commesso
47. MTL - C Finley
48. MTL - D Powell
49. AZC - D Viro
50. CAL - C Niederbach
51. LAK - RW Colangelo
52. OTT - D Mukhamadullin
53. CAR - RW Nybeck
54. PHI - D Faber
55. SJS - C Hirvonen
56. DET - C Zlodeyev
57. MTL - LW Lafierrier
58. BOS - RW Wiesblatt
59. OTT - LW Cuylle
60. LAK - C Biondi
61. OTT - G Daws
62. TBL - RW Chromiak

This will be one of the deeper drafts in recent memory, should produce a high amount of top 6 / top 4 players. If the Hawks can at least 4 and hopefully 5 of these top 100 players than we will be in great shape!

[Jeffster81]

I concur with Drew Commesso. Get me Drew and I'd consider this draft a success.

[GRADEN]

Agree.. in a year where we really need a goalie I took a deep dive into all of them. There should only be about 6 maybe 8-9 guys drafted. Askarov is way out of our price range now / current talk is that the Sens owner loves him and wants him at 5 even. That leaves Daws, Bednar, Commesso, Blomqvist, and Hjlavaj to consider (all other prospects I do not see as NHL guys at all).

The more and more I researched and watched tape it was clear that Commesso has all that we want. Most importantly he has a very straight path to make it big because of the trainers and coaches he has surrounded himself with.

46 too high? I don't think so at all.. don't be surprised to see him in the 40s.

[GRADEN]

Some very interesting goalie news today:

Lehner “officially” extends 5 / 25
Jarry extends 3 / 10.5
Sharks nearing deal to acquire Wild G Dubynk

Well shoot Corey, it seems 3.5 wasn’t a bad offer at all. Jarry is a 25 year old ready to be a potential star and Lehner has been a top 10 goalie for 2 seasons (IMO) and he only got 5.... that 1/3.5 doesn’t sound like it was so insulting after all.

Wonder how Florida is feeling right now ...

Crawford needs to resign - bump him up 250k - 1 / 3.75 and get this done and that’s it.

[GRADEN]

And a reported 8/64 for Pietrangelo from STL on the table
D Deangelo seems to have a 3 / 15 bridge from NYR

Taylor Hall is a mystery to me, I just highly doubt he resigns with AZC as he said winning is most important. I keep hearing Boston actually and even a short term option wildcard in Aves. A long term deal could be like a 6/50 or short term bridge like a 1/8 - 2 / 15... I don’t think he gets anything more than those type of numbers though... a year ago? Shoot maybe 7/70 but those days are gone

[GRADEN]

I’ve listened to Button / McKeens / MH / BHTPC and all the DA pods... and here is the true mentions with MK/SB

I really feel like the true names I hear the most are:

LW Rodion Amirov
D Kaiden Guhle
C Hendrix Lapierre
RW Dawson Mercer

I think that really is pool A for Kelley and Bowman right now and then the second group is:

C Connor Zary
C Mavrik Bourque
D Braden Schneider
C Dylan Holloway
C Brendan Brisson

I gotta say I don’t think I’d be upset with anyone in group A or really even Zary whom just seems solid as heck. I would however be upset with Holloway. That dude isn’t anywhere close. I don’t see his upside that people do. To me he is late 1st early 2nd type of upside pick for a contender.

[GRADEN]

Also want to include the potential darkhorse selection of Lukas Reichel whom I know they like a lot.

[GRADEN]

Hearing flyers, Canadians, and bruins hot after Laine...

Hearing that oilers are all-in to acquire a top pair D man and that OEL price tag a little high and so they are now firmly after Cup campion Sergachev and that TBL have asked for Evan Bouchard in return.

And of course no Hawks rumors because you know Stan is going to wait until all the available players are gone...

How about trade Saad and 76 and 2021 3rd to Canadians for 16. And then you’d have 16/17 and if Mercer and Lapierre are there you pretty much get a second line scoring machine in 1 deal. MTL wants a top 6 wing badly but 1/6 isn’t enough term for 16 so putting 2 3rds in would be fair value - win/win

[Jeffster81]

I've seen the Hawks name in connection with Matt Murray. Nothing credible,yet, just guys putting 1 and 1 together. I know Murray is 26 but he is not very good. Guess it depends on the cost and what Craw is asking for with his negotiations.

And

Olli Maatta to the Kings for Brad Morrison. Salary dump.

[GRADEN]

Maatta just traded to Kings for 23yo prospect Brad Morrison

[GRADEN]

Make no mistake that’s a dump deal - but wow it saves us money for Kubalik / Strome / Caggulia / 4K / Goalie

Morrison is 23 / former WHL all star and #113 pick 4 years ago.... he went pro AHL after PG / LB and dang he stunk and then they demoted him to EC and he was OK at best amongst the has-beens... Morrison is not likely to even make Rockford and likely out of hockey within 2 seasons id guess.

Deal saves us 4m over 2.... it’s a huge deal.

And yes I saw the nrd post on Murray - No thank you! He went from playoff hero to slowly worse and worse. Last 3 seasons in his prime have been very bad. 1 / 2m sure, nothing more

[GRADEN]

Make no mistake that’s a dump deal - but wow it saves us money for Kubalik / Strome / Caggulia / 4K / Goalie

Morrison is 23 / former WHL all star and #113 pick 4 years ago.... he went pro AHL after PG / LB and dang he stunk and then they demoted him to EC and he was OK at best amongst the has-beens... Morrison is not likely to even make Rockford and likely out of hockey within 2 seasons id guess.

Deal saves us 4m over 2.... it’s a huge deal.

And yes I saw the nrd post on Murray - No thank you! He went from playoff hero to slowly worse and worse. Last 3 seasons in his prime have been very bad. 1 / 2m sure, nothing more

[GRADEN]

Yea saw you edit that in, super stoked it wasn’t a buyout because it saves us and extra 2.5 m

[GRADEN]

From what I’m seeing could be a busy trade Halls negotiating rights day:

Bruins / Aves / Canadians / Flyers even could be front runners... I also am seeing Hall excepting a short term deal so he can bridge the flat cap...

Most teams maybe in the 6/45 range for him but he could take a 2/18 instead

Not expecting anything from hawks today - so hold tight for tomorrow

I think Koekkoek could have his rfa contract moved perhaps too.... couldn’t be a smart move but I think he is a candidate for a 2/5 and not sure hawks can swing that for a #5

[GRADEN]

3rd round

63. Detroit Red Wings - C Peterson
64. Ottawa Senators - C Farrell
65. Detroit Red Wings - LW Gushchin
66. Los Angeles Kings - D Jurmo
67. Anaheim Ducks - D Niemela
68. Vegas Golden Knights - D Kuznetsov
69. Carolina Hurricanes - C Ponomarev
70. Nashville Predators - LW Heineman
71. Ottawa Senators - LW Simontaival
72. New York Rangers - LW Jarventie
73. Nashville Predators - G Blomqvist
74. Florida Panthers - D Nikishin
75. Colorado Avalanche - LW Beryozkin
76. Edmonton Oilers - RW Rolston
77. Pittsburgh Penguins - RW McClennon
78. Montreal Canadiens - C Rochette
79. Chicago Blackhawks - D Kleven
80. Washington Capitals - RW Dufour
81. Chicago Blackhawks - C Vierling
82. Vancouver Canucks - RW Francis
83. Los Angeles Kings - D Klikorka
84. New Jersey Devils - LW Tullio
85. Tampa Bay Lightning - RW Evangelista
86. St. Louis Blues - G Bednar
87. Florida Panthers - RW Miettinen
88. St. Louis Blues - D Kaiser
89. Boston Bruins - D Edwards
90. New York Islanders - RW Coe
91. Vegas Golden Knights - LW Hanas
92. New York Rangers - LW Stranges
93. Tampa Bay Lightning - C Ambrosio

[GRADEN]

The more and more I analyze my 3 rounds the more I feel like all the players are in their correct rounds.... is someone going to draft Brisson, Bourque, or Holloway way too high? Definitely could happen.

Guys please be aware of Holloway.... I’m not seeing it. College freshman / 1 year OAer and is a sit spot wing (don’t see C) and he is as inconsistent as they come. For sure has talent, you can see it in his hands in tight spaces but dang he is a Hail Mary of a pick. I think he is 30% chance for 300 games (my measure of a player) in NHL and 10% chance of 500 games middle 6 and like a 3-5% chance he ends up with a good career in a top role.