Game 40 Wolves at Pistons 1/17/24 28-11

[Klomp]

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[FrenchMinnyFan]

I think we may be able to fix the offense with our current players. Need KAT, MCD and Mike to shoot a big more.
I'm more worry about the ball movement. When Mike sit, we are really struggling and Ant turn back to stupid play. A good back up PG is probably what we need. But not easy to get in our situation. Won't be surprised if we keep the same guys all season.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

I think we may be able to fix the offense with our current players. Need KAT, MCD and Mike to shoot a big more.
I'm more worry about the ball movement. When Mike sit, we are really struggling and Ant turn back to stupid play. A good back up PG is probably what we need. But not easy to get in our situation. Won't be surprised if we keep the same guys all season.

[Nick K]

Why is Wiseman not seeing the floor?

I still think of so many that wanted Wiseman instead of Ant in that draft. We argued like crazy on that one.

Thank god we averted that disaster.

[younggunsmn]

50 wins is looking very likely right now. That was quite questionable to start the season.

If we play .500 the rest of the way we will end up with exactly 50 wins.

If we sweep the bad teams and split the rest of our games, we should be able to hit 55+ pretty easily.
But there is still a lot of season left.

Depends on what you mean by "bad teams". How bad do they have to be. I don't expect us to sweep the sub 500 teams. Can't take care of business every single game. I don't expect us to split with the over 500 teams. I expect us to do better than that. 55 Minimum with a goal of 60 which should win us the west.

Well we have 11 games left with DET, WAS, MEM, POR, SA, and CHA.
That's what I meant by bad teams.
For "not so great" teams, we have
6 against BRK, CHI, TOR, and ATL
2 against HOU

Of the Eastern Contenders, we are done with BOS, PHI, NYK, and MIA
We have 2 left with MIL and CLE, and 1 each with IND and ORL.

That leaves 17 games versus the western contenders,
3 vs DEN, LAC
2 vs OKC, PHX, LAL, UTAH
1 vs SAC, DAL, GSW
We are done with NO

So 19 games vs the bads, say we go 15-4
23 games vs teams with aspirations of contending, say we go 12-11

That's a pretty middle of the road estimate that gets us to 56 wins.

It's likely going to take around 50 wins minimum to avoid the play-in this year,
7th pace Dallas is currently on pace for 46, and I expect 8th place Phoenix to go on a run too.

Seeding is nice to think about, but main goal should be to avoid the play-in, it's like winning a whole round of the playoffs before they even start. With injuries and stuff, having highest seed isn't going to necessarily mean facing the weakest opponent.
Lakers got 7 seed last year and probably ended up with the most favorable matchups in each of the 1st 2 rounds.
But they also could easily have been bounced out of the play-in had a couple things not gone their way like Gobert punching slo-mo and New Orleans getting upset by OKC.

[younggunsmn]

Why is Wiseman not seeing the floor?

I still think of so many that wanted Wiseman instead of Ant in that draft. We argued like crazy on that one.

Thank god we averted that disaster.

Yeah boy was I wrong on that one.

To be fair, was the pandemic draft and we had a super small sample size on Wiseman, and a lot of bad tape on Ant.
I really didn't like what Ant showed in that televised workout he did and that tipped it for me.
But boy am I glad to be wrong!

[KGdaBom]

If we play .500 the rest of the way we will end up with exactly 50 wins.

If we sweep the bad teams and split the rest of our games, we should be able to hit 55+ pretty easily.
But there is still a lot of season left.

Depends on what you mean by "bad teams". How bad do they have to be. I don't expect us to sweep the sub 500 teams. Can't take care of business every single game. I don't expect us to split with the over 500 teams. I expect us to do better than that. 55 Minimum with a goal of 60 which should win us the west.

Well we have 11 games left with DET, WAS, MEM, POR, SA, and CHA.
That's what I meant by bad teams.
For "not so great" teams, we have
6 against BRK, CHI, TOR, and ATL
2 against HOU

Of the Eastern Contenders, we are done with BOS, PHI, NYK, and MIA
We have 2 left with MIL and CLE, and 1 each with IND and ORL.

That leaves 17 games versus the western contenders,
3 vs DEN, LAC
2 vs OKC, PHX, LAL, UTAH
1 vs SAC, DAL, GSW
We are done with NO

So 19 games vs the bads, say we go 15-4
23 games vs teams with aspirations of contending, say we go 12-11

That's a pretty middle of the road estimate that gets us to 56 wins.

It's likely going to take around 50 wins minimum to avoid the play-in this year,
7th pace Dallas is currently on pace for 46, and I expect 8th place Phoenix to go on a run too.

Seeding is nice to think about, but main goal should be to avoid the play-in, it's like winning a whole round of the playoffs before they even start. With injuries and stuff, having highest seed isn't going to necessarily mean facing the weakest opponent.
Lakers got 7 seed last year and probably ended up with the most favorable matchups in each of the 1st 2 rounds.
But they also could easily have been bounced out of the play-in had a couple things not gone their way like Gobert punching slo-mo and New Orleans getting upset by OKC.

If our goal is to avoid the play in round we need new leadership and right now. Our goal should definitely be the #1 seed. Then winning it all.

[younggunsmn]

Your goals should be like a ladder.
Your first and most immediate goal is to make the playoffs (not the play-ins).

Being able to avoid the play-in is another rung up on the ladder (higher up on the ladder than we've been in 20 years to be perfectly honest).
It should be the next rung the team is grasping at.
If we miss that rung, all it takes is another loss or 2 to fall completely off the ladder.

I'm not as hung up on seeding as you.
Being at home for a potential game 7 is nice, but it's not as nice as being able to avoid playing elimination games before you even get into the playoff bracket.
We could get the #1 seed and draw a team like NO, SAC, or PHX.
There are no easy outs in the West this year, every series is going to be hard on the way to the Finals.

[Worm Guts]

At this point saying avoiding the play-in is our goal is like saying our goal is avoiding a complete collapse. It’s not much of a goal.
And I do see value in home court advantage. I also think getting the top seed would be good for the confidence of the team.

[KGdaBom]

Your goals should be like a ladder.
Your first and most immediate goal is to make the playoffs (not the play-ins).

Being able to avoid the play-in is another rung up on the ladder (higher up on the ladder than we've been in 20 years to be perfectly honest).
It should be the next rung the team is grasping at.
If we miss that rung, all it takes is another loss or 2 to fall completely off the ladder.

I'm not as hung up on seeding as you.
Being at home for a potential game 7 is nice, but it's not as nice as being able to avoid playing elimination games before you even get into the playoff bracket.
We could get the #1 seed and draw a team like NO, SAC, or PHX.
There are no easy outs in the West this year, every series is going to be hard on the way to the Finals.

You are very correct there are no easy outs. That said no way should we be targeting avoiding the play in round. No freaking way. It seems to me that you still don't think we have a good team.

[KGdaBom]

At this point saying avoiding the play-in is our goal is like saying our goal is avoiding a complete collapse. It’s not much of a goal.
And I do see value in home court advantage. I also think getting the top seed would be good for the confidence of the team.

My sentiments exactly.

[younggunsmn]

Your goals should be like a ladder.
Your first and most immediate goal is to make the playoffs (not the play-ins).

Being able to avoid the play-in is another rung up on the ladder (higher up on the ladder than we've been in 20 years to be perfectly honest).
It should be the next rung the team is grasping at.
If we miss that rung, all it takes is another loss or 2 to fall completely off the ladder.

I'm not as hung up on seeding as you.
Being at home for a potential game 7 is nice, but it's not as nice as being able to avoid playing elimination games before you even get into the playoff bracket.
We could get the #1 seed and draw a team like NO, SAC, or PHX.
There are no easy outs in the West this year, every series is going to be hard on the way to the Finals.

You are very correct there are no easy outs. That said no way should we be targeting avoiding the play in round. No freaking way. It seems to me that you still don't think we have a good team.

We are only half way through the season, we haven't accomplished anything yet.
Don't put the cart before the horse.
All it takes is to have a 2nd half like GSW or LAL had in the first half to potentially fall into the play-in.

I'm ecstatic the team is doing so well this season, but I've also been following this team since 1989 and we've won a playoff series exactly one year out of 33.

One goal at a time, one game at a time, that's all I'm saying.
Worry about making the playoffs (top 6), then worry about homecourt (top 4), then worry about #1 seed.

If we take each game seriously, we can do all of that.
It would make me feel a lot better about the team if we would quit playing down or up to our level of competition, and quit playing with our food before we killed it.

[KGdaBom]

Your goals should be like a ladder.
Your first and most immediate goal is to make the playoffs (not the play-ins).

Being able to avoid the play-in is another rung up on the ladder (higher up on the ladder than we've been in 20 years to be perfectly honest).
It should be the next rung the team is grasping at.
If we miss that rung, all it takes is another loss or 2 to fall completely off the ladder.

I'm not as hung up on seeding as you.
Being at home for a potential game 7 is nice, but it's not as nice as being able to avoid playing elimination games before you even get into the playoff bracket.
We could get the #1 seed and draw a team like NO, SAC, or PHX.
There are no easy outs in the West this year, every series is going to be hard on the way to the Finals.

You are very correct there are no easy outs. That said no way should we be targeting avoiding the play in round. No freaking way. It seems to me that you still don't think we have a good team.

We are only half way through the season, we haven't accomplished anything yet.
Don't put the cart before the horse.
All it takes is to have a 2nd half like GSW or LAL had in the first half to potentially fall into the play-in.

I'm ecstatic the team is doing so well this season, but I've also been following this team since 1989 and we've won a playoff series exactly one year out of 33.

One goal at a time, one game at a time, that's all I'm saying.
Worry about making the playoffs (top 6), then worry about homecourt (top 4), then worry about #1 seed.

If we take each game seriously, we can do all of that.
It would make me feel a lot better about the team if we would quit playing down or up to our level of competition, and quit playing with our food before we killed it.

I'm glad you're ecstatic about how well we are doing. However, do you realize that the other 33 Wolves seasons have zero, zip, zilch, nada to do with this years team. We have done nothing to indicate a second half collapse of epic proportions so I'm going to choose to focus on loftier goals than avoiding a second half collapse of epic proportions.

[younggunsmn]

Would you consider 18-23 or 19-22 a collapse of epic proportions?

Because that's all it might take to drop to 7th and get stuck in the play-in. Even with a 30-11 start.

[KGdaBom]

Would you consider 18-23 or 19-22 a collapse of epic proportions?

Because that's all it might take to drop to 7th and get stuck in the play-in. Even with a 30-11 start.

Yes to go from 30-11 first half to either of those second half would be a collapse of epic proportions. I'm expecting similar results in the 2nd half of the season to those of the first half of the season.
Our 30-11 first half of the season is not a small sample size. It's half the season. It's a pretty big sample size. I know if you want you can analyze it and say we were lucky blah, blah, blah, but we are what our record says we are.

[Worm Guts]

Would you consider 18-23 or 19-22 a collapse of epic proportions?

Because that's all it might take to drop to 7th and get stuck in the play-in. Even with a 30-11 start.

I would call a below .500 record in the 2nd half of the season a collapse.

[FrenchMinnyFan]

At that stage, i will be disapointed with another position than 1st or 2nd. We play hard for that and have to finish the job. I'm always worry about trading time too and it can change things. Home advantage is definitly important.