Game 41 Memphis at Minnesota 1/18/24 29-11

[Guest84]

Ant had a good second half but man Finch has to try and reign him in while he’s going at times. He gets going but other guys lose rhythm due to the tunnel vision. The only one who seems still do well after not getting it for awhile is Naz.

I also felt there was a long drought where Kat didn’t touch the ball in the second half. Yeah the dunks are great for show and crowd morale but you gotta use that gravity to incorporate your team.

Reid was wide open on that ally. Towns is usually open off the pick, etc.

[winforlose]

Ant had a good second half but man Finch has to try and reign him in while he’s going at times. He gets going but other guys lose rhythm due to the tunnel vision. The only one who seems still do well after not getting it for awhile is Naz.

I also felt there was a long drought where Kat didn’t touch the ball in the second half. Yeah the dunks are great for show and crowd morale but you gotta use that gravity to incorporate your team.

Reid was wide open on that ally. Towns is usually open off the pick, etc.

Your point about Ant is valid. But if you look at the +/- in the second half (a stat I usually loath,) Kyle is -6 in 5:13. The next lowest player is +5 and the starters are all in positive double digits. Kyle is becoming a problem.

[KGdaBom]

Sometimes the hand cools in between quarters or at the timeout or with something else that takes you out of rhythm. What you call a myth is something regularly seen most nights in the NBA and in basketball games at every other level.

Thank you for making my point. If the Hot Hand regularly becomes the cold hand most nights in the NBA than the Hot Hand is a myth. If you mean sometimes players have better than average shooting games sure. Not Hot Hands, just a good shooting game. By the end of the game Naz had a good shooting game. Started great, went ice cold, ended well. No hot hand, no cold hand, just a better than average shooting game.

Your point is that a very real and quantifiable phenomenon is not a real and quantifiable phenomenon. I turn your attention back to Keegan Murray who hit 12 of his first 13 3 point attempts. A 37.6% 3 point shooter shooting 92.3% on that volume is not normal. Ask him to do it again on any given night or even any given year and he will fail. Smaller samples exist like a guy going 3 for 3 from deep in a quarter and missing the rest for the game. Heck, you could go to a gym and ask the pick up guys if they have ever seen a player just go off and not miss for an afternoon. I know I personally have had hot hand games and cold hand games. When I have the cold hand I pass more and feed my teammates. When I have the hot hand, they feed me. I think you are a little too interested in playing the technicality game and trying to trip me up. I have been very clear that hot hands cool off, especially when not fed. I have been very clear they are not always full game phenomena, and I have been very clear their can be multiple at once.

In other words a MYTH.

[winforlose]

Thank you for making my point. If the Hot Hand regularly becomes the cold hand most nights in the NBA than the Hot Hand is a myth. If you mean sometimes players have better than average shooting games sure. Not Hot Hands, just a good shooting game. By the end of the game Naz had a good shooting game. Started great, went ice cold, ended well. No hot hand, no cold hand, just a better than average shooting game.

Your point is that a very real and quantifiable phenomenon is not a real and quantifiable phenomenon. I turn your attention back to Keegan Murray who hit 12 of his first 13 3 point attempts. A 37.6% 3 point shooter shooting 92.3% on that volume is not normal. Ask him to do it again on any given night or even any given year and he will fail. Smaller samples exist like a guy going 3 for 3 from deep in a quarter and missing the rest for the game. Heck, you could go to a gym and ask the pick up guys if they have ever seen a player just go off and not miss for an afternoon. I know I personally have had hot hand games and cold hand games. When I have the cold hand I pass more and feed my teammates. When I have the hot hand, they feed me. I think you are a little too interested in playing the technicality game and trying to trip me up. I have been very clear that hot hands cool off, especially when not fed. I have been very clear they are not always full game phenomena, and I have been very clear their can be multiple at once.

In other words a MYTH.

You sir don’t understand what the word myth means. . You saw it happen in real time with Luke Kennard and JJJ. If you don’t believe me, your fellow board members, your eyes, or common sense, you will cry fake news and never believe anything. You should watch the movie Don’t Look Up.

[KGdaBom]

Your point is that a very real and quantifiable phenomenon is not a real and quantifiable phenomenon. I turn your attention back to Keegan Murray who hit 12 of his first 13 3 point attempts. A 37.6% 3 point shooter shooting 92.3% on that volume is not normal. Ask him to do it again on any given night or even any given year and he will fail. Smaller samples exist like a guy going 3 for 3 from deep in a quarter and missing the rest for the game. Heck, you could go to a gym and ask the pick up guys if they have ever seen a player just go off and not miss for an afternoon. I know I personally have had hot hand games and cold hand games. When I have the cold hand I pass more and feed my teammates. When I have the hot hand, they feed me. I think you are a little too interested in playing the technicality game and trying to trip me up. I have been very clear that hot hands cool off, especially when not fed. I have been very clear they are not always full game phenomena, and I have been very clear their can be multiple at once.

In other words a MYTH.

You sir don’t understand what the word myth means. . You saw it happen in real time with Luke Kennard and JJJ. If you don’t believe me, your fellow board members, your eyes, or common sense, you will cry fake news and never believe anything. You should watch the movie Don’t Look Up.

Guys sometimes make more shots than usual for a stretch. It's not a Hot Hand it's guys making more shots than usual for a stretch. It always ends and you never know when it's going to end. It's a myth.

[Worm Guts]

Your point is that a very real and quantifiable phenomenon is not a real and quantifiable phenomenon. I turn your attention back to Keegan Murray who hit 12 of his first 13 3 point attempts. A 37.6% 3 point shooter shooting 92.3% on that volume is not normal. Ask him to do it again on any given night or even any given year and he will fail. Smaller samples exist like a guy going 3 for 3 from deep in a quarter and missing the rest for the game. Heck, you could go to a gym and ask the pick up guys if they have ever seen a player just go off and not miss for an afternoon. I know I personally have had hot hand games and cold hand games. When I have the cold hand I pass more and feed my teammates. When I have the hot hand, they feed me. I think you are a little too interested in playing the technicality game and trying to trip me up. I have been very clear that hot hands cool off, especially when not fed. I have been very clear they are not always full game phenomena, and I have been very clear their can be multiple at once.

In other words a MYTH.

You sir don’t understand what the word myth means. . You saw it happen in real time with Luke Kennard and JJJ. If you don’t believe me, your fellow board members, your eyes, or common sense, you will cry fake news and never believe anything. You should watch the movie Don’t Look Up.

If you flip a coin and get 5 heads in a row, heads wasn't hot. When it comes to percentages, sometimes you get stretches that defy those percentages.
Of course there's a lot of variables in the human body and I'm sure players at certain times are more capable of making shots than others based on diet, exercise, sleep or whatever, but I'm also guessing when it comes to hitting 5 or 6 shots in a row there's some luck involved.

[BlacJacMac]

Guys sometimes make more shots than usual for a stretch. It's not a Hot Hand it's guys making more shots than usual for a stretch. It always ends and you never know when it's going to end. It's a myth.

How are those 2 things different?

[KGdaBom]

Guys sometimes make more shots than usual for a stretch. It's not a Hot Hand it's guys making more shots than usual for a stretch. It always ends and you never know when it's going to end. It's a myth.

How are those 2 things different?

W4L thinks there is a magical Hot Hand thing. It's not magical. It's a guy randomly making more shots than normal for a short stretch of time and it's not likely to continue. You can't count on it. Myth.

[guest81]

Guys sometimes make more shots than usual for a stretch. It's not a Hot Hand it's guys making more shots than usual for a stretch. It always ends and you never know when it's going to end. It's a myth.

How are those 2 things different?

W4L thinks there is a magical Hot Hand thing. It's not magical. It's a guy randomly making more shots than normal for a short stretch of time and it's not likely to continue. You can't count on it. Myth.

Have you ever played basketball?

[KGdaBom]

How are those 2 things different?

W4L thinks there is a magical Hot Hand thing. It's not magical. It's a guy randomly making more shots than normal for a short stretch of time and it's not likely to continue. You can't count on it. Myth.

Have you ever played basketball?

Yes. Thanks for asking.
Let me help you out here. How many shots does a player have to make to determine his hand is hot? By the time you realize his hand is hot, his hand might have already gone cold.
Naz Reid last night. 5-5 hand couldn't have been any hotter. Say you figured out his hand was hot after the first 3 shots. So you got 2 baskets from him when determining his hand was hot. He went on to miss his next four shots. Say it took you 3 shots to determine his hand was cold. He then went on to make 3 of his next 4 shots. Let's say that took you 3 shots to figure out so you got his final shot. By going on hot or cold hand you end up with a 2-5 shooting stretch you miss a 2-3 shooting stretch and you get a 1 for 1 shooting stretch. Did paying attention to Hot/Cold hand do you any good? No it didn't.

[BlacJacMac]

Guys sometimes make more shots than usual for a stretch. It's not a Hot Hand it's guys making more shots than usual for a stretch. It always ends and you never know when it's going to end. It's a myth.

How are those 2 things different?

W4L thinks there is a magical Hot Hand thing. It's not magical. It's a guy randomly making more shots than normal for a short stretch of time and it's not likely to continue. You can't count on it. Myth.

Nothing magical about it. Sometimes players get hot shooting. Sometimes a great shooter can barely hit the rim for an entire game.

Feed the guy that's hot until he isn't.

[KGdaBom]

How are those 2 things different?

W4L thinks there is a magical Hot Hand thing. It's not magical. It's a guy randomly making more shots than normal for a short stretch of time and it's not likely to continue. You can't count on it. Myth.

Nothing magical about it. Sometimes players get hot shooting. Sometimes a great shooter can barely hit the rim for an entire game.

Feed the guy that's hot until he isn't.

Check out the numbers I gave for Naz. It doesn't work. Takes too long to determine who's hot and takes too long to determine who's cold. I used a 3 shot sample to determine hotness or coldness. Do you want to use a 2 shot sample to determine hot or cold. Is a 2 shot sample really something to hang your hat on?

[TimberKat]

Ant had a good second half but man Finch has to try and reign him in while he’s going at times. He gets going but other guys lose rhythm due to the tunnel vision. The only one who seems still do well after not getting it for awhile is Naz.

I also felt there was a long drought where Kat didn’t touch the ball in the second half. Yeah the dunks are great for show and crowd morale but you gotta use that gravity to incorporate your team.

Reid was wide open on that ally. Towns is usually open off the pick, etc.

Ant talks about team structure approach. He is saying the right stuff and is learning. It's still a work in progress more so than Ball, Banchero, Holmgren and Wembanyama in this perspective.

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[Klomp]

It was easy in the heat of the moment to be frustrated with the Wolves defense giving Jaren Jackson Jr virtually anything he wanted last night, to the tune of 36 points on an efficient 15-23 shooting. But that was the only real option the Grizzlies had, as despite that huge performance they still only scored 103 points as a team. That's because the rest of the team shot just 38.7% from the field, which even includes Kennard hitting five 3-pointers and scoring 18 points on just nine total shots (that means the other eight players made just 33.9% of shots). When you have a team as deep as the Timberwolves are this year, you can absorb a blow from one or two players and still come out ahead.

[gandlogo]

When you have a team as deep as the Timberwolves are this year, you can absorb a blow from one or two players and still come out ahead.

I think it's more accurate to say when your opponent is missing seven rotation players - including four starters - you can absorb the blow. That said, mobile bigs remain a huge issue for the Wolves.

[Klomp]

When you have a team as deep as the Timberwolves are this year, you can absorb a blow from one or two players and still come out ahead.

I think it's more accurate to say when your opponent is missing seven rotation players - including four starters - you can absorb the blow.

Sure, it doesn't hurt...

[KGdaBom]

When you have a team as deep as the Timberwolves are this year, you can absorb a blow from one or two players and still come out ahead.

I think it's more accurate to say when your opponent is missing seven rotation players - including four starters - you can absorb the blow.

Sure, it doesn't hurt...

The thing I love about this game was we had played poorly and we were in position to lose the game on National TV to a team missing their entire roster. We would have become a laughing stock. We didn't panic and blew them out in the 4th.

[younggunsmn]

Looks like another of KG's "but we won!" games.
Down 5 entering the 4th. JJJ and Kennard going ballistic.
Kind of bailed out by JJJ getting into foul trouble.

Jaden had zero fouls for the 2nd straight game, which is an encouraging sign.
We also didn't play very well defensively in either game.

[younggunsmn]

To wade into the "Hot Hand" dumpster fire a little bit...

Pro NBA shooters can regularly make 15-20 in a row in practice.
To go on a hot streak in a game it takes 3 things:
1. Skill
2. Confidence
3. Repetition

As a defense, you can't do anything about point one, but you can affect points 2 and 3 by:
A) getting into a shooters space/face and limiting their vision
B) getting them off their spots that they are comfortable shooting from

If basketball was just a glorified 3 point shooting contest with no defenders, guys would shoot 70-80%.
If a guy is going on an extended heater, chances are you are not doing much of A and B above.

Anyone who has played a little bit or done well in a 3 point contest knows what it's like to be "in the zone" at times where your confidence is sky high and you feel like every shot is going in, and your muscle memory just seems to be perfect.

It doesn't happen like that all the time or even often, but confidence is a real thing, humans aren't robots, but they function closest to robots (perfect repetition) when they are the most confident in their own success, and nothing breeds more confidence like more success.

KAT was like 70% from 3 over the previous 5 games for example and we spent the first 3 weeks of the year wondering where his shot had gone.

[KGdaBom]

Looks like another of KG's "but we won!" games.
Down 5 entering the 4th. JJJ and Kennard going ballistic.
Kind of bailed out by JJJ getting into foul trouble.

Jaden had zero fouls for the 2nd straight game, which is an encouraging sign.
We also didn't play very well defensively in either game.

Sure does. A win is a win is a win is a win is a win.
Go Wolves.