Post#35 » by dsg2021 » Fri Jul 17, 2009 11:47 pm
Wow, after looking at him and his stats, he's a real gem in the rough. I really like him and I actually think the Warriors may match..
Going to the negative first, his stats suggest he's a poor distributer. Like I mean, Nelson is a score first PG, but he is still dishing 5.4 APG. This dude is at 2.7 APG.. I think some of it might be GSW way of life, but we'll see as his career progresses. This might suggest Magic might play him as a combo guard or they believe his style is just score first PG, I agree with the latter. I don't know about his defense enough either, he's only 6-2 but Magic and us fans haven't really been looking at big guards either, but he's quick and young. That can always improve if its poor or average right now.
Going to the positive, he's young at 25. He has just two years of NBA experience, but he improved in every single category from his 1st yr to his 2nd yr, this last season. Just a glance at that Youtube vid provided shows his quickness and slashing game. But he likes to slash alot to shoot closer in. And that's actually great, because he's a deadly shooter. He came into the league shooting 42 fg% and 34 3p%, but he upped it last season to a highly impressive 45 fg% and 40 3p%. So he has that beautiful long range 3pnt shot Magic highly covet. And his stats/career suggest it wasnt a 2nd yr outlier, it should stay hold or improve. He also grabbed 2.5 boards per game and 1.2 steals per game in his 24 minutes per game average, so the steal rate is nice and might allude to a decent defense too actually. His other great positive is FT shooting at 79% his 1st season, 87% this last season. Not only that, but because he likes to slash to score, he got sent to the line 2.5 times per game which is nice and slightly higher than normal, and this is a big plus. In essential, hes a accurate, scoring PG who's still quite young. That's a real gem in the rough right there IMO. I did not see this coming at all, but I really hope they can grab him from GSW. Overall, I really like everything Im reading about him. I really love PG styles to stay similar between start-backup, its great to keep the team playing on a same system always and you always know what to expect from the PGs offense as they are similar. This is a slasher PG who might get to the line slightly more than Nelson statistically, but is such a good shooter that it's a big part of his game too and he has the range of anywhere to expand that role further like Nelson does so. I was always frustrated how Rafer Alston was almost a whole package of what you want in a PG, but I really did not care to retain him so much b/c his shooting is so absolutely horrid, and it was going to be such a big change for shooting from a starter PG Nelson to the backup PG Alston. IMO, Id still love the dude. God forbid Nelson goes down again, Id be throwin the TPE his way again, but Im being honest.
Here is Hollinger's take on C.J. Watson and alot of this I took along with stats and what I've seen from him to describe above, altho note this is last updated roughly a year ago:
2007-08 season: Called up from the D-League after a very strong half-season, Watson also played reasonably well in 32 games with Golden State. He shot fairly well in both stops, hitting 40 percent on 3s at the NBDL's Rio Grande Valley and 34.6 percent for the Warriors, a tough feat considering how sporadic his minutes were once he joined the Warriors. (His PER for 07-08 was 11.10)
Scouting report: Though he's a 6-2 point guard, Watson is more of a slashing scorer in the Bobby Jackson mold than a pure point guard. His assist ratios were quite low at both Golden State and Rio Grande Valley (side note: Isn't the Rio Grande like a thousand miles long? Is a "Nile Valley" franchise far behind? Can we be a little more specific here, D-League people?), and he had an extremely high rate of free throws in the D-League. He's a good foul shooter too, so if he can get to the stripe in the pros he'll stick around for a while.
2008-09 outlook: Watson re-signed with Golden State and stands to benefit from the injury to Monta Ellis, as he and Marcus Williams are the only healthy point guards on the Warriors' roster. Don Nelson's style doesn't really demand him to be a distributor, so he's a good fit here, and based on how well he played last season he has a good shot to gain a foothold in the league and stick around for half a decade or so. (His PER was 14.27 this past season)
GSW's Situation- Why they might/might not Match:
GSW has Monta Ellis, Acie Law, Speedy Claxton, and newly drafted Stephen Curry for the PG spots. That's alot of players for PG, but Curry and Ellis are combo guards. Marcus Williams is a PG who expired this summer for GSW, he did not get much PT in GSW at all, but in his 1st 2 seasons at NJN, he seemed OK statistically. I don't know where he is going this summer.
That still means Ellis is the starting PG tho, b/c that's how GSW wants it. They dont need pass first PGs, not their style.
Acie Law and Speedy Claxton were acquired recently from ATL, and both serve as expiring contracts. It can be assumed Claxton is to be little used, he is 31, 5-11 in height, and has been statistically free-falling the last 2 seasons due to injuries.
Acie Law is still young, and has only played 2 seasons and less minutes per game than C.J. Watson did, but the stats and looks seem to show Law is a step below of Watson at the moment. I don't know if GSW will use him, but its very possible.
Stephen Curry is just drafted, has not shot the ball well in summer league (teams rarely care about SL play tho), but everything else - his PG skills, creating, overall playing has been very solid and he was the 7th overall pick afterall. I don't know what position he'll play, and this could be key to whether GSW might keep C.J. Watson or not, but I think Curry is to play PG behind Ellis, or atleast get plenty of time behind Ellis there and at the backup 2 spot.
Im under the assumption the starting lineup is Ellis - Maggete - Azubuike - Jackson - Biedrins as they hold most of their respective spots' minutes.
The depth chart for PG would seem to be Ellis - Watson - Curry - Law depending on which of the three young backup PGs GSW wants to play more, itd might be more along thier thoughts of a Ellis - Curry - Watson depth. And even if the 1st depth chart seems right for GSW, Law and Curry should be capable enough to handle that backup spot instead. That I can't say for sure tho.
On a franchise money side for total salary, GSW is in fairly good financial shape with 13 players on roster alrdy and only just barely over the cap level (Not the Lux tax level, still 13mil below). Altho PG depth is alittle heavy for a typical team if they match Watson. And if its to a long term contract, GSW will not like it. With Claxtons expiring deal and the rejection of 1 or 2 Team Optioned contracts, GSW can get 5-8mil below cap level too.