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Rainwater wrote:

RookieStar wrote:

KillMonger wrote:why? is that case still ongoing?

As far as I know it hasn't been closed yet right? And a lot of "experts" or whatever you wanna call them predicted that the case would re-open/ make some noise once Miller earns his millions.

Who knows, maybe there are some wink-wink and its finally over??

I doubt Miller is charged with anything.

I thought it was closed but, if anything, could come back in a civil suit - meaning “pay up and it goes away” - not jail

Nobody in CHA feeling regret about that pick

cedric76 wrote:Another podcast mentioning that Carter would be perfect in Orlando

https://youtu.be/9UCWv9oqk-s?si=RYwi7nYLJHoMv77B

If we felt like we had Carter at 18…I’d be a lot more comfortable including AB in a trade for Murray or Simons (ATL & POR should value AB)…Carter looks more than a little like Cason Wallace. PG could go from ORL’s biggest weakness to biggest 1/2 position of strength overnight.

drsd wrote:

Ja Morant Hires Mike Miller As Agent

Banchero's agent. Does this mean anything?

How far would the Magic go here in a trade?

Suggs, Black, Carter, the 2024 FRP, the better of the Magic or Denver FRP, the Orl/Wiz/Suns FRP once it becomes something Memphis wants.

I really don't think there is an offer the Magic would refuse, so long as F-Wagner and Banchero was not included.

Mike Miller stays here in Memphis and lol no Grizz not trading Ja. But how are you guys feeling about a Kennard 25 1st for Wendell Carter Jr.

eyriq wrote:

Watch on YouTube

Lot's of analyses over the years basically say the same thing; if a player post lottery even becomes a rotational player, then it was a good pick. And if not, well the expected value was NBA-bust, so it's ok - just move on.

Example: Anthony (good pick) and Okeke (move-on). That is, drafting these two players, Orlando did actually find value.

Another point: at 18, it is VERY unlikely the Magic will gain value. That's why drafting a player like Carter as a 3rd-string PG is not a horrible idea, as there is cap value in that sort of pick. And so-called BPA in this range of the draft is literally throwing a dart at a board for the randomness of players that have value. That's why Edey at 18 can never be a "bust pick". p.s. I still like KyShawn George as BPA, if the Magic keep the pick.

What I found very interesting by this presenter was "path to building a contender". Which basically is get a top-10 player (nearly impossible), add a top-20 player and a top-50 player. The other 12 roster slots "don't matter".

Based on this logic: so for Orlando the needs for this team is simple individual improvement for Banchero to become a top-10 player (likely), F-Wagner to become a top-20 player (likely) and Suggs to become a top-50 player (likely). That is: the core is already built for this team to be a contender. It's all window dressing from here on!

drsd wrote:

eyriq wrote:

Watch on YouTube

Lot's of analyses over the years basically say the same thing; if a player post lottery even becomes a rotational player, then it was a good pick. And if not, well the expected value was NBA-bust, so it's ok - just move on.

Example: Anthony (good pick) and Okeke (move-on). That is, drafting these two players, Orlando did actually find value.

Another point: at 18, it is VERY unlikely the Magic will gain value. That's why drafting a player like Carter as a 3rd-string PG is not a horrible idea, as there is cap value in that sort of pick. And so-called BPA in this range of the draft is literally throwing a dart at a board for the randomness of players that have value. That's why Edey at 18 can never be a "bust pick". p.s. I still like KyShawn George as BPA, if the Magic keep the pick.

This analysis is also a pretty good case not freaking out if 2 or 3 frps are traded for an established player.

Skybox wrote:This analysis is also a pretty good case not freaking out if 2 or 3 frps are traded for an established player.

And-1

Love this guy yelling at us, "after the 11th pick in the draft, 50% of selections will not become rotational players in the NBA".

It really emphasizes the value these picks have as trade assets over actually being kept. Look: a horrible team can select 5 or 6 of these players and keep the only good one. Orlando is not in that place.

Another nerd view on this:
Tim Schmitz: How valuable is each NBA draft pick?



Let's ignore that the 6 is a bad pick (thanks to Orlando). And focus on 18. It actually has historically had good value for its range. It has projected to be a player with 21.5 win shares but actually becomes a player with 24.2 win shares.

Looked up some random players. Pat Garrity is 18.7. Keith Bogans is 20.4. Keyon Dooling is 18.5. Maurice Harkless is 23.0. Mickaël Piétrus is 19.7. Carlos Arroyo is 20.1

So if the Magic gets that sort of player at 18, it was an ok draft.

I kind of want a new ePat now. But isn't that Jingles role?

QMemphis wrote:But how are you guys feeling about a Kennard 25 1st for Wendell Carter Jr.

The very last thing the Magic would want is another draft pick. And Carter is on a very good contact for Orlando.

So flip it around: Orlando's 18, Houstan-or-Howard, and the Denver 2025 FRP for Kennard. Orlando is trading for depth, not assets.

drsd wrote:

QMemphis wrote:But how are you guys feeling about a Kennard 25 1st for Wendell Carter Jr.

The very last thing the Magic would want is another draft pick. And Carter is on a very good contact for Orlando.

So flip it around: Orlando's 18, Houstan-or-Howard, and the Denver 2025 FRP for Kennard. Orlando is trading for depth, not assets.

I would definitely take it.

drsd wrote:
Lot's of analyses over the years basically say the same thing; if a player post lottery even becomes a rotational player, then it was a good pick. And if not, well the expected value was NBA-bust, so it's ok - just move on.

Example: Anthony (good pick) and Okeke (move-on). That is, drafting these two players, Orlando did actually find value.

Another point: at 18, it is VERY unlikely the Magic will gain value. That's why drafting a player like Carter as a 3rd-string PG is not a horrible idea, as there is cap value in that sort of pick. And so-called BPA in this range of the draft is literally throwing a dart at a board for the randomness of players that have value. That's why Edey at 18 can never be a "bust pick". p.s. I still like KyShawn George as BPA, if the Magic keep the pick.

What I found very interesting by this presenter was "path to building a contender". Which basically is get a top-10 player (nearly impossible), add a top-20 player and a top-50 player. The other 12 roster slots "don't matter".

Based on this logic: so for Orlando the needs for this team is simple individual improvement for Banchero to become a top-10 player (likely), F-Wagner to become a top-20 player (likely) and Suggs to become a top-50 player (likely). That is: the core is already built for this team to be a contender. It's all window dressing from here on!

I agree, and love the term "window dressing". Pretty much the critical task is for the front office to draft lotto talent with the highest potential to hit stardom and for coaching to maximize development. Everything else is window dressing.

Here is the list of #18s over the last 15 years for perspective.


Jaime Jaquez Jr. 2023
Dalen Terry 2022
Tre Mann 2021
Josh Green 2020
Goga Bitadze 2019
Lonnie Walker IV 2018
TJ Leaf 2017
Henry Ellenson 2016
Sam Dekker 2015
Tyler Ennis 2014
Shane Larkin 2013
Terrence Jones 2012
Chris Singleton 2011
Eric Bledsoe 2010
Ty Lawson 2009

QMemphis wrote:

drsd wrote:

QMemphis wrote:But how are you guys feeling about a Kennard 25 1st for Wendell Carter Jr.

The very last thing the Magic would want is another draft pick. And Carter is on a very good contact for Orlando.

So flip it around: Orlando's 18, Houstan-or-Howard, and the Denver 2025 FRP for Kennard. Orlando is trading for depth, not assets.

I would definitely take it.

Of course you would, it s a terrible trade for the Magic, come on drsd

cedric76 wrote:

QMemphis wrote:

drsd wrote:
The very last thing the Magic would want is another draft pick. And Carter is on a very good contact for Orlando.

So flip it around: Orlando's 18, Houstan-or-Howard, and the Denver 2025 FRP for Kennard. Orlando is trading for depth, not assets.

I would definitely take it.

Of course you would, it s a terrible trade for the Magic, come on drsd

The above posts about the near worthlessness of low FRPs notwithstanding, is it Houstan (barely a rotational player) or Howard (not close to being a rotational player) you are more keen on retaining?

The 18 is a weak draft will almost certainly be a terrible player. And the Denver pick will be in the low 20s next year, so - worse. These are not remarkable things to want. Especially as we are talking about the Magic gaining a reliable distance shooter in this trade concept.

drsd wrote:

QMemphis wrote:But how are you guys feeling about a Kennard 25 1st for Wendell Carter Jr.

The very last thing the Magic would want is another draft pick. And Carter is on a very good contact for Orlando.

So flip it around: Orlando's 18, Houstan-or-Howard, and the Denver 2025 FRP for Kennard. Orlando is trading for depth, not assets.

FO will not trade away the first round pick.
That's only the will the will of some people here.

Very good possibility that one of Carter, Da Silva, McCain, Filipowski, Kolek will be a Magician in late June.

cedric76 wrote:

QMemphis wrote:

drsd wrote:
The very last thing the Magic would want is another draft pick. And Carter is on a very good contact for Orlando.

So flip it around: Orlando's 18, Houstan-or-Howard, and the Denver 2025 FRP for Kennard. Orlando is trading for depth, not assets.

I would definitely take it.

Of course you would, it s a terrible trade for the Magic, come on drsd

Yes, he is on mission to draft away this year's first round pick.

Petre1978 wrote:

cedric76 wrote:

QMemphis wrote:
I would definitely take it.

Of course you would, it s a terrible trade for the Magic, come on drsd

Yes, he is on mission to draft away this year's first round pick.

No a Memphis fan asked if Orlando would trade Kennard and a FRP for Carter. And I stated that Orlando has no need in another FRP.

I expect Orlando to draft Devin Carter, and I am really quite fine with that. Or Edey. That would also be fine.

What I do think is that if Orland has a chance to package some assets to consolidate the roster, that would be a great idea. But I hold ZERO hope on that outcome.

drsd wrote:The 18 is a weak draft will almost certainly be a terrible player. And the Denver pick will be in the low 20s next year, so - worse. These are not remarkable things to want. Especially as we are talking about the Magic gaining a reliable distance shooter in this trade concept.

It's less about the potential of player versus wasting assets for a great shooter who has bounced around a lot because his defense is just not good. What amounts to three 1st round picks (one in Jett who we haven't seen yet) + 18 + Denver pick for Kennard is sending out assets that could be better served for other guys.

drsd wrote:

Petre1978 wrote:

cedric76 wrote:
Of course you would, it s a terrible trade for the Magic, come on drsd

Yes, he is on mission to draft away this year's first round pick.

No a Memphis fan asked if Orlando would trade Kennard and a FRP for Carter. And I stated that Orlando has no need in another FRP.

I expect Orlando to draft Devin Carter, and I am really quite fine with that. Or Edey. That would also be fine.

What I do think is that if Orland has a chance to package some assets to consolidate the roster, that would be a great idea. But I hold ZERO hope on that outcome.

Carter would be awesome but I m worried Miami grabs him before us

QMemphis wrote:

drsd wrote:

Ja Morant Hires Mike Miller As Agent

Banchero's agent. Does this mean anything?

How far would the Magic go here in a trade?

Suggs, Black, Carter, the 2024 FRP, the better of the Magic or Denver FRP, the Orl/Wiz/Suns FRP once it becomes something Memphis wants.

I really don't think there is an offer the Magic would refuse, so long as F-Wagner and Banchero was not included.

Mike Miller stays here in Memphis and lol no Grizz not trading Ja. But how are you guys feeling about a Kennard 25 1st for Wendell Carter Jr.

Kennard will likely be an FA, and we could sign him for a low contract. The Grizzlies aren't going to pay the tax. The tax threshold is projected to be $172m in 24-25. If the Grizzlies pick up Kennard's option, they'll be at $175m.

Carter has a lower salary and would put the Grizzlies under the tax threshold, and if we could draft Clingan, I'd do it. He won 2 championships in 2 years.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/donovan-clingan-1.html

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