Wage Has a 93% correlation with Team Sucesss

[freethedevil]

For whatever reason, coaches continue to be assessed based on team achievements, rather than impact. However, the reality is that better coaches almost always lose to worse coaches if their teams have lower wages. Soccernomics did a 25-year study where they took into account over the past 25 years the positions of all teams and compared this to the expected positioning due to spending within the last 5 years. They then did the mathematical equation for variance and standard deviation to find the average distance a point is from the mean taking into account the number of outliers within the results. They found out that 71% of the time spending on a team’s transfers would not correlate to position, wereas only 6% of the time did league position not with wage budget.

Iow, 94% of the time, how much your players are paid will tell you how well your team will do.

If you're looking for the value of a coach, you're probably better off looking at position- wage, than simply comparing "resumes".

[HIF]

Aren't you the guy saying that Klopp or Pep - I forget which - is the greatest of all time?

[DCRYsing89]

Well Man U really doing something wrong.

I get what your saying, and it’s a quite interesting fact, but I still feel a manager with a good system, that gets players in that fit that system will be able to show they are elite (Klopp is the best example, not every team can work that hard).

If you spending money meanlessly trying to get the best players, even overpaying, it will fail.

[coldfish]

This is going to be highly skewed if you look at the big picture. That is to say, Real, Barca, Bayern, PSG, Juve plus England's big six win the vast majority of their league games and they pay the biggest wages.

The real questions start to get raised when you are talking about competition within that group and I strongly suspect that wages play a much less dominant role. PSG paying more than Barca hasn't made them better than Barca.

[SgtPepper]

This hypothesis was basically adopted and disproven by Florentino Perez's galacticos, which underperformed the investment expectation.

Soccernomics also has dated data at this point, with a lot more money being pumped into the EPL midtable since then and diluting the value of investment into predicting or driving the EPL. This style of thinking is also too statistical and not process-oriented enough. It's more reasonable even within the confines of the assumptions of Soccernomics to argue that player valuations in the market are roughly accurate, therefore the teams with the highest book value for their squad actually have the best net talent. If wages were a real driver, then teams would just need to have the best wage increase program and not the best players.

[danfantastk32]

This hypothesis was basically adopted and disproven by Florentino Perez's galacticos, which underperformed the investment expectation.

Come on....disproven? By this one team? I mean, if anything, this article comes with a "no sh&%*" factor. Of course teams with the big budgets win all the time. I don't know how long you've been a fan of the sport, but you just look at Chelsea when Brom to over, and they just flooded the market with $$$ and went from a 'strong side' to a power house. Man-City was essentially Everton, and in one summer (with $300+ mil in spending) became an elite team.

If people want to go dive into the weeds about nuances, ya'll can be my guest. But you don't need websites with "data" to show whats in front of your face on a daily basis.

Yeah.....you can spend tons of money and not get a good squad. Leeds united basically screwed themselves in the late 90's / early 2k's doing that very thing. But they did come in 2nd one year....so it's not like it amounted to nothing.

You spend...you get into top-4. You get into CL. That comes with $$$.....more money to spend. Top players look for teams in the CL. And it snowballs. It's not hard to see. Will spending automatically make you #1? No. But it's gonna put you in the running. And if you consistently spend, and therefore consistently get into things like the CL.....you will be top destinations for young up-and-comers.

Until Real and Barca take them from you =0)

[danfantastk32]

I'd say 20 or so years ago, the bigger "no duh" aspect of this was your city size. Big city's had bigger fan bases had bigger media contracts, more merchandise sales....and on and on. Again....it didn't correlate to an automatic win, but if you were a big city, and weren't being run by a total loser....you were in the hunt on a yearly basis. You were in the CL, further separating you from the pack, and it snowballed on and on. Nowadays, at least you can have some billionaire roll in, and decide your his new favorite shiny toy for the next couple years, and he can skew things.

And please people: don't argue with the handful of exceptions. I am aware of the Leicester's that pop up from time to time. And it's why we like them....they totally buck the trend. But those exceptions make the rule.

[SgtPepper]

This hypothesis was basically adopted and disproven by Florentino Perez's galacticos, which underperformed the investment expectation.

You spend...you get into top-4. You get into CL. That comes with $$$.....more money to spend. Top players look for teams in the CL. And it snowballs. It's not hard to see. Will spending automatically make you #1? No. But it's gonna put you in the running. And if you consistently spend, and therefore consistently get into things like the CL.....you will be top destinations for young up-and-comers.

Until Real and Barca take them from you =0)

Cool story, that's why Wolves are in top 4 right? Or why Man Utd's cash burn over the last 5 years have kept them competitive?

The lazy conflation here is that throwing money at football problems will drive or solve them, when at pretty much a league level the high spending hasn't produced competitive continental class football in comparison to the middle and top class of Spain or Germany over the last decade.

[danfantastk32]

[quote="SgtPepper"] Cool story, that's why Wolves are in top 4 right? quote]

Top 4 in what? I count them 7th in Prem.

Again...this isn't difficult, or something that anyone needs to layer all sorts of computer algorithms over the top of. 93% not 100%. Your gonna get these 'lightning in a bottle' teams occasionally....and your gonna find teams who manage to screw it up. It's not that complicated.

[tobysunsfan]

Well Man U really doing something wrong.

I get what your saying, and it’s a quite interesting fact, but I still feel a manager with a good system, that gets players in that fit that system will be able to show they are elite (Klopp is the best example, not every team can work that hard).

If you spending money meanlessly trying to get the best players, even overpaying, it will fail.

I'd be more interested in seeing how wages grow with success, and if that could be a way of measuring. Both Real Madrid and Barcelona both have the highest wages of any two clubs, and that's off the back of a dominant decade. If their players didn't win so many trophies (most of the UCLs, World Cup, European Championships), they would definitely be on the level of a Bayern or Juventus.
Eventually if Liverpool continue to win a lot, it will only rise and rise.

[Foye]

Will be interesting to see whether this covid19 crisis has any future effect on implementing a more reasonable salary system for the top european leagues.
It's ridiculous that a fairly large amount of clubs (who have been receiving billions from tv revenue and sponsorship deals - for years) are letting the average tax payer pay (partly) for their employees salaries now.

The salaries, players management fees and transfer fees need to be reduced to a respectable limit.

[danfantastk32]

Will be interesting to see whether this covid19 crisis has any future effect on implementing a more reasonable salary system for the top european leagues.
It's ridiculous that a fairly large amount of clubs (who have been receiving billions from tv revenue and sponsorship deals - for years) are letting the average tax payer pay (partly) for their employees salaries now.

The salaries, players management fees and transfer fees need to be reduced to a respectable limit.

My guess is that until fans stop buying these sports packages, and stop shelling out huge $$$ to be in the seats, none of this will change. You might see a couple 'lean years' on the horizon....but that will prob end up hurting the smaller teams more so. The big cities, with huge fan-bases, and plenty of affluent fans will prob notice little more than a tiny 'tick'. People continue to shell out their cash in big ways for sports. And the whole Covid thing will "still be warm" before fans start coming back, and paying huge. I just don't see an upheaval of the system. It's gonna take fans not paying...and there are still plenty who can.

My thoughts on it.

[freethedevil]

Aren't you the guy saying that Klopp or Pep - I forget which - is the greatest of all time?

I hve saf as the goat due to longetivity as well as what he did with man united right before retirement and his success with abderdeen. i've pretty strongly argued klopp > pep tho and that he has been ever since his dortmund title winning days.

[danfantastk32]

I hve saf as the goat due to longetivity as well as what he did with man united right before retirement and his success with abderdeen.

It makes me want to gouge my eyes out admitting this...but you gotta respect it where it's due.

[freethedevil]

I hve saf as the goat due to longetivity as well as what he did with man united right before retirement and his success with abderdeen.

It makes me want to gouge my eyes out admitting this...but you gotta respect it where it's due.

I'm wondering if I'm underappreciating wenger though

[danfantastk32]

I hve saf as the goat due to longetivity as well as what he did with man united right before retirement and his success with abderdeen.

It makes me want to gouge my eyes out admitting this...but you gotta respect it where it's due.

I'm wondering if I'm underappreciating wenger though

Another great coach IMO. But what Alex did was next level. That early 2000's Arsenal team was something special, but Fergison did it with several major changes over 25 years or so. Wenger built one of the all-time great powerhouse teams...but as soon as a couple pieces left / got old, it never got close to what it was again. I wanna say Fergison won with 3 different squads. Van Nistelrooy, Beckham, C.Ronaldo, Rio Ferdinand, Giggs, Berbatov, Van Der Saar, Timmy Howard, Shmical, Rooney, tons of others, all came and went under Fergie rule. And still titles came. Even got one with that bastard traitor M. Owen

As a Liverpool fan, believe me that I would love to hand the crown to Wenger over Fergison. But I cant.

[freethedevil]

It makes me want to gouge my eyes out admitting this...but you gotta respect it where it's due.

I'm wondering if I'm underappreciating wenger though

Another great coach IMO. But what Alex did was next level. That early 2000's Arsenal team was something special, but Fergison did it with several major changes over 25 years or so. Wenger built one of the all-time great powerhouse teams...but as soon as a couple pieces left / got old, it never got close to what it was again. I wanna say Fergison won with 3 different squads. Van Nistelrooy, Beckham, C.Ronaldo, Rio Ferdinand, Giggs, Berbatov, Van Der Saar, Timmy Howard, Shmical, Rooney, tons of others, all came and went under Fergie rule. And still titles came. Even got one with that bastard traitor M. Owen

As a Liverpool fan, believe me that I would love to hand the crown to Wenger over Fergison. But I cant.

Yeah, i don't think wenger really has anything that stacks up to his aberdeen years or his last man united seasons

[HIF]

There were 2 news stories in English football that got me thinking yesterday. The first was Bale possibly coming to Spurs amid the discussion of his £500K+ weekly wage, the second was the winding up of Macclesfield FC by the courts (not the first and not the last club to die because of financial problems). Macclesfield were just relegated from the football league as they were deducted points due to non-payment of debts including money owed to the manager. The total of those debts happened to be £500K.

Isn't that a sad comment on the state of English football (and football in general) when there are players earning in 1 week more than the debts of long established clubs which leave them entering liquidation and ceasing to exist? This isn't a knock on Bale or any prem footballer but the distribution of money in the game needs to change and more money needs to filter down to the lower leages and grass roots football.

Maybe for worldwide fans a handful of rich strong teams in a few countries making a competition like the Champion's league more fun is good but for football in general and national football in particular it is not a good thing.

[danfantastk32]

There were 2 news stories in English football that got me thinking yesterday. The first was Bale possibly coming to Spurs amid the discussion of his £500K+ weekly wage, the second was the winding up of Macclesfield FC by the courts (not the first and not the last club to die because of financial problems). Macclesfield were just relegated from the football league as they were deducted points due to non-payment of debts including money owed to the manager. The total of those debts happened to be £500K.

Isn't that a sad comment on the state of English football (and football in general) when there are players earning in 1 week more than the debts of long established clubs which leave them entering liquidation and ceasing to exist? This isn't a knock on Bale or any prem footballer but the distribution of money in the game needs to change and more money needs to filter down to the lower leages and grass roots football.

Maybe for worldwide fans a handful of rich strong teams in a few countries making a competition like the Champion's league more fun is good but for football in general and national football in particular it is not a good thing.

I think what you say is spot on. But what can we do? Especially as a fan in LA....I can't very well go to a 'hull city' game, or whatnot.

I suppose maybe I owe it to buy a jersey from a div-2 team once every couple years?? Find something I like, and drop the $100 in the name of football? It's a thought. I def agree that fifa needs to realize they need to step in here soon, and fix this. You can't have the same 10-12 teams win their respective league year in and year out, and expect a robust industry

[HIF]

There were 2 news stories in English football that got me thinking yesterday. The first was Bale possibly coming to Spurs amid the discussion of his £500K+ weekly wage, the second was the winding up of Macclesfield FC by the courts (not the first and not the last club to die because of financial problems). Macclesfield were just relegated from the football league as they were deducted points due to non-payment of debts including money owed to the manager. The total of those debts happened to be £500K.

Isn't that a sad comment on the state of English football (and football in general) when there are players earning in 1 week more than the debts of long established clubs which leave them entering liquidation and ceasing to exist? This isn't a knock on Bale or any prem footballer but the distribution of money in the game needs to change and more money needs to filter down to the lower leages and grass roots football.

Maybe for worldwide fans a handful of rich strong teams in a few countries making a competition like the Champion's league more fun is good but for football in general and national football in particular it is not a good thing.

I think what you say is spot on. But what can we do? Especially as a fan in LA....I can't very well go to a 'hull city' game, or whatnot.

I suppose maybe I owe it to buy a jersey from a div-2 team once every couple years?? Find something I like, and drop the $100 in the name of football? It's a thought. I def agree that fifa needs to realize they need to step in here soon, and fix this. You can't have the same 10-12 teams win their respective league year in and year out, and expect a robust industry

I don't think it's the fans fault per se. I believe it is the greed of the big clubs and the weakness of the governing bodies. They at least are supposed to be there for the sport, not the big teams. The moment the "prem" clubs broke away from the football league was the beginning of the end for the lower league clubs and a shame for football. We need the governing bodies to "tax" europe's giants and lesser giants in order to keep football in a healthy state.