2023 NBA Draft

[76ciology]

My final mock, ranked not based on how I think the draft will go BUT ranked on how good they’ll be in the league

06/18/23

1 Wembayama (once in a lifetime prospect)
2 Brandon Miller (likely star wing)
3 Brice Sensabaugh (superb 3 level scorer)
4 Scoot (likely star guard but cant shoot)
5 Brandin Podziemski (tyler herro to jalen brunson upside)
6 Taylor Hendricks (borderline star scorer with defense)
7 Kobe Bufkin (playmaking and shooting upside)
8 Jarace Walker (reminds me of Jerami Grant)
9 Bilal Coulilbaly (versatile wing who can shoot and play defense; could be higher if i got more sample size)
10 Jordan Hawkins (borderline star off ball scorer) defender potential.
11 Cam Whitmore (good foundation on offense with multi position .7apg is a redflag tho)
12 Gradey Dick (reliable 3&d with high IQ)
13 Amen Thompson (im not a fan of poor shooter)
14 Ausar Thompason (im not a fan of poor shooter)
15 Marcus Sasser (high production guard on both ends)
16 Leonard Miller (2 way forward)
17 Jaime Jacquez (versatile guard on both ends)
18 Keyonte George (scorer but inefficient)
19 Jett Howard (scorer + size)
20 Cason Wallace (not a fan of non scoring guards)
21 Trayce (reminds me of John Collins)
22 Kobe Brown (shooting + upside as multi position defender)
23 Adama Sagono (reminds me of big Al)
24 Kris Murray (twin of Keegan and he’s also productive)
25 Dereck Lively (upside as a starting big)
26 Noah Clowney (upside as a starting PF)
27 Terquavion Smith (i like his style of play but he needs to clean up his efficiency)
28 Anthony Black (not a fan, i dont like poor shooters or non scoring guard. I think he’s a forward masks as a guard)
29 Colby Jones (productive role playing backup guard)
30 Nick Smith Jr (upside)

I can get with a lot of your mock, like the Thompson twins being overrated, while guys like Podz, Sasser, and TJD are underrated. But to have Sensabaugh that high when he’s allergic to defense and passing is off to me. Also, Anthony Black that low is blasphemous. He should be top 8 at worst.

I dont think you can win with Anthony Black at guard position in today’s NBA. You need atleast a shooter. And to be a star you need to be a shooter and a scorer. I think Black is a forward, but he’s short at 6’7” with 6’7-ish wingspan, so he slides to G position which makes him “sexy prospect”, i think he’d be a fraud.

Sensa is that high because if he’s healthy, he can be a 20-25ppg type scorer in the league with efficiency. At worst that’s derozan-lavine-beal type value. That archetype is valued a lot more than Jerami Grant type archetype with whitemore-Hendricks-thompson twins.

[BoyzNTheHood]

My final mock, ranked not based on how I think the draft will go BUT ranked on how good they’ll be in the league

06/18/23

1 Wembayama (once in a lifetime prospect)
2 Brandon Miller (likely star wing)
3 Brice Sensabaugh (superb 3 level scorer)
4 Scoot (likely star guard but cant shoot)
5 Brandin Podziemski (tyler herro to jalen brunson upside)
6 Taylor Hendricks (borderline star scorer with defense)
7 Kobe Bufkin (playmaking and shooting upside)
8 Jarace Walker (reminds me of Jerami Grant)
9 Bilal Coulilbaly (versatile wing who can shoot and play defense; could be higher if i got more sample size)
10 Jordan Hawkins (borderline star off ball scorer) defender potential.
11 Cam Whitmore (good foundation on offense with multi position .7apg is a redflag tho)
12 Gradey Dick (reliable 3&d with high IQ)
13 Amen Thompson (im not a fan of poor shooter)
14 Ausar Thompason (im not a fan of poor shooter)
15 Marcus Sasser (high production guard on both ends)
16 Leonard Miller (2 way forward)
17 Jaime Jacquez (versatile guard on both ends)
18 Keyonte George (scorer but inefficient)
19 Jett Howard (scorer + size)
20 Cason Wallace (not a fan of non scoring guards)
21 Trayce (reminds me of John Collins)
22 Kobe Brown (shooting + upside as multi position defender)
23 Adama Sagono (reminds me of big Al)
24 Kris Murray (twin of Keegan and he’s also productive)
25 Dereck Lively (upside as a starting big)
26 Noah Clowney (upside as a starting PF)
27 Terquavion Smith (i like his style of play but he needs to clean up his efficiency)
28 Anthony Black (not a fan, i dont like poor shooters or non scoring guard. I think he’s a forward masks as a guard)
29 Colby Jones (productive role playing backup guard)
30 Nick Smith Jr (upside)

I can get with a lot of your mock, like the Thompson twins being overrated, while guys like Podz, Sasser, and TJD are underrated. But to have Sensabaugh that high when he’s allergic to defense and passing is off to me. Also, Anthony Black that low is blasphemous. He should be top 8 at worst.

I dont think you can win with Anthony Black at guard position in today’s NBA. You need atleast a shooter. And to be a star you need to be a shooter and a scorer.

Sensa is that high because if he’s healthy, he can be a 20-25ppg type scorer in the league with efficiency. At worst that’s derozan-lavine-beal type value. That archetype is valued a lot more than Jerami Grant type archetype with whitemore-Hendricks-thompson twins.

I disagree. I think Black is exactly the type of player you win with. Excellent defender, and passer with size for the position.

Sensabaugh seems like empty stats to me. I can see him being a net zero on the court like Derozan was for many of his Toronto years.

[76ciology]

I can get with a lot of your mock, like the Thompson twins being overrated, while guys like Podz, Sasser, and TJD are underrated. But to have Sensabaugh that high when he’s allergic to defense and passing is off to me. Also, Anthony Black that low is blasphemous. He should be top 8 at worst.

I dont think you can win with Anthony Black at guard position in today’s NBA. You need atleast a shooter. And to be a star you need to be a shooter and a scorer.

Sensa is that high because if he’s healthy, he can be a 20-25ppg type scorer in the league with efficiency. At worst that’s derozan-lavine-beal type value. That archetype is valued a lot more than Jerami Grant type archetype with whitemore-Hendricks-thompson twins.

I disagree. I think Black is exactly the type of player you win with. Excellent defender, and passer with size for the position.

Sensabaugh seems like empty stats to me. I can see him being a net zero on the court like Derozan was for many of his Toronto years.

Sorry but like who? Delon wright? kriss dunn? Michael Carter Williams? Every year its the same agents hyping these type of guys and the story always ends the same.

If Derozan can shoot 3s and get to the line, he’d be much better.

[Tha King]

I can get with a lot of your mock, like the Thompson twins being overrated, while guys like Podz, Sasser, and TJD are underrated. But to have Sensabaugh that high when he’s allergic to defense and passing is off to me. Also, Anthony Black that low is blasphemous. He should be top 8 at worst.

I dont think you can win with Anthony Black at guard position in today’s NBA. You need atleast a shooter. And to be a star you need to be a shooter and a scorer.

Sensa is that high because if he’s healthy, he can be a 20-25ppg type scorer in the league with efficiency. At worst that’s derozan-lavine-beal type value. That archetype is valued a lot more than Jerami Grant type archetype with whitemore-Hendricks-thompson twins.

I disagree. I think Black is exactly the type of player you win with. Excellent defender, and passer with size for the position.

Sensabaugh seems like empty stats to me. I can see him being a net zero on the court like Derozan was for many of his Toronto years.

Regarding empty stats, Sensabaugh had a BPM of 8.6 compared to 6.7 for AB. TS% of 59% (on 48/41/83 splits) compared to 55%. WS/40 of .19 compared to .13.

He's a 6'6 potential (efficient) three level scorer. Playmaking and defense are definitely question marks but the potential skillset he does have -as a wing- is extremely valuable as well.

[GSWFan1994]

We dont need to guess Whitmore's height though. He's 6'5.75" barefoot. That was done at the combine, that is as official as a measurement as we can get.

I also dont think Okoro is a bad comp, but just because he didnt workout doesnt mean all guys with similar comps dont work out. Miles Bridges is a very similar physical comp and skill comp at the same age. Bridges was a 20/7 guy on +3% TS% before he was an idiot off the court.

I dont think he has the same passing skills as Bridges at the same age, but I think he is a quicker and faster athlete and has the better handles than Bridges at the same age. I also think he is the better defender than Bridges at the same age.

Look, I don't dislike Whitmore. I just think he's being overrated for his mocked position.

At the 10-14 range, ok. I'll even give you a bit more and say 8 onwards.

But drafting him at 4? No way.

Let's say your median outcome for him is something between Okoro and Bridges. Would you draft this guy at 4?

[GSWFan1994]

Shabazz Muhammad and Hacimura were lower, but thats it basically.

But re: Okoro, I think it depends on how much you buy Whitmore's 3pt shooting, which is probably his biggest difference from Okoro coming into the draft. Well that and as Clyde said, Whitmore is another level up as an athlete. Whitmore had close to double the dunk rate Okoro did, and was much more in line with an athlete like Miles Bridges.

Okoro was a low volume 3pt shooter who shot 28%, and Whitmore was a high volume 3pt shooter at 34%. If Cam's college 3pt shooting is an illusion then it might be rough for him, but I think he'll be at least average there.

Yes, both comps fits.

Shabazz had 151 assists in 4.772 minutes played (0,5/game) and was out of the league by age 25.

Is Hachimura a high end starter, let's say, a guy who could be your 3rd best starter on a playoff contending team? We all know the answer.

As for Miles Bridges, he had 150 assists in 1.962 minutes while in college (2,4/game). Compared to Whitmore, that's simply another level. This shows a way higher level of ballhandling, playmaking, court vision, etc.

Now please understand the point I'm trying to make: even if Whitmore turns out to be a capable outside shooter, you'd have someone who is:

- great athlete
- great slasher
- good outside shooter
- average defender

... but nothing else.

Is this guy worth the 4th pick on a weak/below average draft?

Like I said, I'm not sold into Whitmore. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he turns out everything you guys say he will be in the future.

The way I see it, the more fantastic players around, the better the game will be from the perspective of a fan.

[76ciology]

What makes Whitmore better than Leonard Miller?

[916fan]

What makes Whitmore better than Leonard Miller?

Better scorer and shooter who's projectable in the typical SF molds we've seen in the past few decades that can score at 3 levels: Tobias Harris, Rudy Gay, Kawhi Leonard, etc. Not saying he's Harris or Leonard, but a high scoring wing is probably one of the most coveted positions. He has a relatively safe floor just because his scoring is so advanced.

Leonard Miller is a F/PF mold with some people thinking he can play C down the road. He's a big forward who doesn't having the scoring prowess of Whitmore. With ball handling at his size and length, the only comp we have to go off of is Giannis.This makes Miller's future projection more of an unknown. I think he has a higher ceiling that Whitmore, but his floor is a lot lower.

[BoyzNTheHood]

I dont think you can win with Anthony Black at guard position in today’s NBA. You need atleast a shooter. And to be a star you need to be a shooter and a scorer.

Sensa is that high because if he’s healthy, he can be a 20-25ppg type scorer in the league with efficiency. At worst that’s derozan-lavine-beal type value. That archetype is valued a lot more than Jerami Grant type archetype with whitemore-Hendricks-thompson twins.

I disagree. I think Black is exactly the type of player you win with. Excellent defender, and passer with size for the position.

Sensabaugh seems like empty stats to me. I can see him being a net zero on the court like Derozan was for many of his Toronto years.

Sorry but like who? Delon wright? kriss dunn? Michael Carter Williams? Every year its the same agents hyping these type of guys and the story always ends the same.

If Derozan can shoot 3s and get to the line, he’d be much better.

If you think he’ll be mediocre like those guys that’s your opinion. I think differently. Anthony Black is essentially in the 3rd tier of prospect for me behind Wemby, then Scoot. He’s right there with Miller, Whitmore, Walker, and Hendricks in terms of impact. He plays both ends of the floor and doesn’t handicap his team on the defensive side.

Sensabaugh scores at an incredible clip. I’m not going to trash him like you are with Black. But he lacks key skills needed to win at a high clip. He might end up being Derozan with a 3, but a much more likely scenario for him in my opinion is TJ Warren who isn’t anything special no matter what people try to tell you about him. Having a few great games doesn’t make you something you’re not.

[BoyzNTheHood]

I dont think you can win with Anthony Black at guard position in today’s NBA. You need atleast a shooter. And to be a star you need to be a shooter and a scorer.

Sensa is that high because if he’s healthy, he can be a 20-25ppg type scorer in the league with efficiency. At worst that’s derozan-lavine-beal type value. That archetype is valued a lot more than Jerami Grant type archetype with whitemore-Hendricks-thompson twins.

I disagree. I think Black is exactly the type of player you win with. Excellent defender, and passer with size for the position.

Sensabaugh seems like empty stats to me. I can see him being a net zero on the court like Derozan was for many of his Toronto years.

Regarding empty stats, Sensabaugh had a BPM of 8.6 compared to 6.7 for AB. TS% of 59% (on 48/41/83 splits) compared to 55%. WS/40 of .19 compared to .13.

He's a 6'6 potential (efficient) three level scorer. Playmaking and defense are definitely question marks but the potential skillset he does have -as a wing- is extremely valuable as well.

You can throw any stat you want at me. I’m going to take the guy who chooses not to ignore 50% of the game. Black and Sensabaugh are in two different stratospheres.

[76ciology]

Does Sensabaugh really has a 7’2” wingspan? I cant find any links to this

[CptCrunch]

Sensabaugh is likely a Nick Young type player. One way player, decent shooter off the bench in the average case.

Black is all-NBA third team defense in his average case. Black is likely the best defensive prospect this year after Wemby and Hendricks.

[TyCobb]

Personally I have Jarace Walker as the 2nd best defensive prospect in this draft, then Black, and Hendricks fourth.

[CptCrunch]

Overthinking on a big defensive guard (with some viewing with high end passing talent) is the definition of over thinking.

Anthony Black is one of the few defensive players who exhibits the Dwight Howard effect from non center position ever. Go watch late season Arkansas games to see this Black's impact on defense.

[clyde21]

im fairly convinced AB's the most underrated cat in the entire class at this point, not that I think everyone should have him top 3 or 5, that's preference I guess, but people are starting to REALLY underrate every aspect of his game because he's not a great shooter.

there's just been way too hard of an overcorrection on shooting/scoring in general even if it's inefficient scoring, that's how you have non-winning players like Beal and Poole getting absurd contracts despite the fact that they have numerous mission critical flaws in their games...but as long as they score, even barely treading water in terms of TS, it doesn't matter.

you have a 6-7, athletic, two-way, high BBIQ, potential lead guard with a high FTA rate who led an SEC team at 18 years old who can defend multiple levels/positions at a high rate...but a **** player like Brice Sensabaugh who's a headless chicken on defense is apparently better because he can hit a 3.

just nonsense and I hate that these entire convos have essentially devolved into just 'who can shoot better' most of the time.

[BostonCouchGM]

uh oh, you're going to ruffle some feathers. I agree, Cam barely looks 6'5". He had a very disappointing season considering the hype entering the season. He could be closer to Okoro than Brown and that's why he can't be high lottery imho.

Yes, the Okoro comp is valid and fits very well... Okoro has been really underwhelming so far. He barely improved so far.

He averages a 9.7 PER in 3 seasons in the NBA. Single digit PER for a former 5th pick. Can we label him a bust yet?

Now look at that: if you go to Okoro's page in College BBallRef, he's listed at 6'6''. Link.

But if you go to his NBA's page on BBallRef, he's listed at 6'5''. Link.

How about that? Which one should we trust? I'd rather trust my eyes, sir. Same thing with Whitmore, Mathurin and countless others.

We dont need to guess Whitmore's height though. He's 6'5.75" barefoot. That was done at the combine, that is as official as a measurement as we can get.

I also dont think Okoro is a bad comp, but just because he didnt workout doesnt mean all guys with similar comps dont work out. Miles Bridges is a very similar physical comp and skill comp at the same age. Bridges was a 20/7 guy on +3% TS% before he was an idiot off the court.

I dont think he has the same passing skills as Bridges at the same age, but I think he is a quicker and faster athlete and has the better handles than Bridges at the same age. I also think he is the better defender than Bridges at the same age.

I honestly feel bad for people that believe the "official" numbers. It'll never not be funny to me. Even when they show guys being measured (like with Bilal recently) the guys measuring aren't pushing down on their hair. That alone can account for 1/4" to 2" in height depending on the hairstyle. They are measuring shoe soles from the outside but not whether there are inserted mid-sole lifts inside which can account for another 1/4" to 1/2". These flaws in the system are exacerbated when it's done at "personal" combines. Then you have the influence of agents greasing palms for more favorable results. At the end of the day, the "official" measurements are almost guaranteed to be inflated. There's very little chance Whitmore is 6'5.75" barefoot with a bald head. Even his poor wingspan actually backs up him being shorter.

[clyde21]

Yes, the Okoro comp is valid and fits very well... Okoro has been really underwhelming so far. He barely improved so far.

He averages a 9.7 PER in 3 seasons in the NBA. Single digit PER for a former 5th pick. Can we label him a bust yet?

Now look at that: if you go to Okoro's page in College BBallRef, he's listed at 6'6''. Link.

But if you go to his NBA's page on BBallRef, he's listed at 6'5''. Link.

How about that? Which one should we trust? I'd rather trust my eyes, sir. Same thing with Whitmore, Mathurin and countless others.

We dont need to guess Whitmore's height though. He's 6'5.75" barefoot. That was done at the combine, that is as official as a measurement as we can get.

I also dont think Okoro is a bad comp, but just because he didnt workout doesnt mean all guys with similar comps dont work out. Miles Bridges is a very similar physical comp and skill comp at the same age. Bridges was a 20/7 guy on +3% TS% before he was an idiot off the court.

I dont think he has the same passing skills as Bridges at the same age, but I think he is a quicker and faster athlete and has the better handles than Bridges at the same age. I also think he is the better defender than Bridges at the same age.

I honestly feel bad for people that believe the "official" numbers. It'll never not be funny to me. Even when they show guys being measured (like with Bilal recently) the guys measuring aren't pushing down on their hair. That alone can account for 1/4" to 2" in height depending on the hairstyle. They are measuring shoe soles from the outside but not whether there are inserted mid-sole lifts inside which can account for another 1/4" to 1/2". These flaws in the system are exacerbated when it's done at "personal" combines. Then you have the influence of agents greasing palms for more favorable results. At the end of the day, the "official" measurements are almost guaranteed to be inflated. There's very little chance Whitmore is 6'5.75" barefoot with a bald head. Even his poor wingspan actually backs up him being shorter.

if you're talking about Cam Whitmore it's already been pointed out to you (multiple times) that he had his hair in corn rows at the combine.

[Chuck Everett]

Sensa is that high because if he’s healthy, he can be a 20-25ppg type scorer in the league with efficiency. At worst that’s derozan-lavine-beal type value. That archetype is valued a lot more than Jerami Grant type archetype with whitemore-Hendricks-thompson twins.

One question about this. If Sensabaugh isn't going to be a capable defender, he might not even be able to get into games to show his chops at the pro level. TJ Warren and Cam Thomas are elite scorers as well, but it's the other side that doesn't keep them on the floor. You have to list those types as well. And I know TJ gets injured a lot so it's not exactly fair.

[clyde21]

jfc

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[Saints14]

Been seeing some surprising love for Whitmore lately. Pelton's stats-only model has him first in the class, and Vecenie has him 3rd on his board ahead of Miller. I have some real concerns about his feel for the game but that definitely gives me pause