Hot take alert: It's time to finish the rebuild

[bkohler]

This will be a very glass-half-empty post - you have been warned.

It's a challenging time for Utah Jazz fans. The landscape of the NBA is shifting, and we find ourselves at a crossroads. The question looms: where does the team go from here? Do we keep pushing for play-in games, or are we actually trying to build a contender?

The lack of high-end talent on our current roster is evident. While we have potential, it's arguable that our best player, Lauri Markkanen, is better suited as a secondary or tertiary option on a championship-contending team. This isn't to diminish Lauri's contributions; he's been instrumental to our successes and excelled way beyond expectations. However, his team-friendly contract, while attractive now, presents long-term challenges. With his expected max contract demands in a couple of years, we're faced with the dilemma of determining his actual value to the team. On top of this is what happens if he plateaus or regresses? His value is most likely never going to be higher, nor is salary matching ever easier.

Sexton's performance hasn't quite hit the mark, and he feels more like an underwater asset. Clarkson's situation is another puzzle. He's an undeniable talent, but his fit within our timeline is questionable. It's time to move him while he has value.

Collins is a wildcard. He's shown promise, but the long-term vision with him remains unclear, and it feels likey he'll be a near underwater asset ala Sexton. And while our youth is brimming with potential, it feels somewhat suppressed by veterans with a limited ceiling. Players like Kris Dunn and Kelly O have been solid, but are they the future pillars of the Jazz?

The case of THT is frankly annoying. His promise is undeniable, but without control over his rights, we're in a precarious position. If he excels, keeping him on board might be a challenge. And I'm not convinced his game will age well, as It seems predicated on bullying his way to the rim. It just doesn't seem like the skill is there.

It's clear that the future should be centered around our budding talents. Ochai, Keyonte, Hendrick, and Kessler deserve the limelight and the bumps and bruises that come with it. It's time to move others in exchange for picks.

Reflecting on the past year, there were moments of hope and frustration. Securing promising players in the draft was a highlight, but there was a palpable hesitation to commit to the tanking strategy fully. Players like Wemby have showcased their capabilities, making us wonder what could've been with a better draft position.

As we gaze into the horizon, a 2-3 year tanking strategy seems the most sound, IMO. The 2024 draft could bring in a vital role player, and 2025 offers more high-end talent.

I know someone will throughout the whole, 'the plan is to trade for Luka or some other disgruntled superstar,' but I ask you, when was the last time talent flowed from a large market to a small market that wasn't due to an age-related decline of value?

So I guess team #tanknote?

Is this an overreaction to the first game - probably? But I look at the talent this year, the way free agency has worked the last few years, and see very few ways the Jazz are significantly better next year than this year based on the current direction we're moving.

[Catchall]

Jazz took a year to tear down the previous team, getting value where they could for Mitchell, Gobert, O'Neale, Bogdanovic and Conley. You can consider that the "tear-down" phase, and the front office did a really good job of it. They even got value for Rudy Gay, which is impressive. But they haven't rebuilt anything yet.

Jazz are accumulating assets and looking for opportunistic trades. They're basically running a pawn shop right now. Looking towards the long term, it sounds as though the Jazz like Lauri, Ochai and Keyonte, but I don't think anyone is above being traded if the right deal came around.

The Jazz likely have two options for this season:

1) Push to win 35-40 games, bag the 9th seed, and win one or two post-season games; then they'll hand the #12 pick in the draft to OKC (as if the Thunder needs yet another lottery pick).

2) Trade out the holdovers from the past (including Clarkson, Olynyk's expiring deal and maybe THT's expiring deal), play their young players, win under 30 games, and try to add another All Star-caliber talent in the draft.

Personally, I think the more responsible path is 2), and I think that's what the Jazz have positioned themselves for.

[Inigo Montoya]

Finish the rebuild? We just started it last season+1 game. We're ahead of schedule. I would guess that the Jazz will once again try to be good until the trade deadline in order to showcase the players on the roster, and then try to tank in earnest. It is possible that THT and Clarkson are starting in order to build their value for a trade down the line.

[bkohler]

Finish the rebuild? We just started it last season+1 game. We're ahead of schedule. I would guess that the Jazz will once again try to be good until the trade deadline in order to showcase the players on the roster, and then try to tank in earnest. It is possible that THT and Clarkson are starting in order to build their value for a trade down the line.

From my view, it looks like we're attempting to straddle both sides of the road. I would offer that there's a good chance doing the rebuild half-heartedly will actually put us further behind schedule.

I suppose it's possible that THT/Clarkson are starting to build value I've yet to see that work for any team. I firmly believe their value now is going to be the same as it will be in a few months, with the exception of perhaps waiting until Dec 15th to deal (gotta wait for Clarkson) so there's more players that can be moved in deals.

Overall I just fear purgatory you see a team like the Wizards in. Long stretches of high 30 - low 40 win teams with no franchise player to anchor them. I get the argument that Lauri is that franchise player, but I also think it's possible he just had the best season of his life.

[Catchall]

Finish the rebuild? We just started it last season+1 game. We're ahead of schedule. I would guess that the Jazz will once again try to be good until the trade deadline in order to showcase the players on the roster, and then try to tank in earnest. It is possible that THT and Clarkson are starting in order to build their value for a trade down the line.

From my view, it looks like we're attempting to straddle both sides of the road. I would offer that there's a good chance doing the rebuild half-heartedly will actually put us further behind schedule.

I suppose it's possible that THT/Clarkson are starting to build value I've yet to see that work for any team. I firmly believe their value now is going to be the same as it will be in a few months, with the exception of perhaps waiting until Dec 15th to deal (gotta wait for Clarkson) so there's more players that can be moved in deals.

Overall I just fear purgatory you see a team like the Wizards in. Long stretches of high 30 - low 40 win teams with no franchise player to anchor them. I get the argument that Lauri is that franchise player, but I also think it's possible he just had the best season of his life.

Once we start the season something like 3-7, it'll be pretty clear which side of the road we're on.

[AGE1207]

I don’t think we are doing too bad as this is just the start of year 2. We have more building blocks than we could have hoped for: Kessler, Markannen, Agbaji, George, Collins and possibly Heyndricks.
And we have (tradeable) assets such as Sexton, Clarkson, THT, Dunn & Olynyk.

Do we need more talent? Yes, obviously. Do we have holes in our selection? Yes, of course. But do we really need to start tanking already? I doubt it…Let’s just play for a while instead and see where the chips fall. Plenty of time still to decide which is the best course of action.

[Jammer]

I'm a basketball junkie who analyzes all types of situations just for fun. But, in some ways, you get an impartial analysis.

I think that what the Jazz have done the past 20 months has been BRILLIANT. Starting with swapping Royce O'Neal for a future 1rst (Brice Sensabaugh). The Gobert and Mitchell trades were absolutely slam dunks. So was the roster balancing Bogdonovic for Olynyk at $7M less per year. Creating room for young guards by moving Conley, while creating the cap space to absorb Collins, was also BRILLIANT.

Now, for the impatient, the future is VERY Bright. Quick summary from a HARSH CRITIC of talent.

The Jazz have 7 CERTAIN QUALITY PLAYERS:
C Walker Kessler
PF John Collins, Kelly Olynyk (even though the Jazz often play Olynyk out of position as a backup C)
SF Lauri Markkanen
SG Jordan Clarkson
PG Keyonte George, Kris Dunn

You've got 3 Unknowns (or TBD):
Taylor Hendricks (will initially learn more in practice and by watching than throwing him out on the court)
Brice Sensabaugh
Ochai Agbaji

Some guys you want to move for assets, even if just a 2nd Round pick, and thus they get time they MAY NOT DESERVE:

Talen Horton -Tucker (expiring, probably would like to move for something, ie to Toronto for Thaddeus Young, Garrett Temple + 2026 Unprotected 1rst Round Pick)
Collin Sexton (ideally scorer off the bench quick enough to guard point guards) - could be worth two 2nd Round Picks into Cap Space or say, swapped to Miami, with Olynyk, for Unprotected 2028 1rst Round Pick + Kyle Lowry

There are guys who won't be back, i.e. Fontecchio

And there are guys with limitations, ie. Samanic and to a lesser extent Yurtseven, who might be a pleasant surprise at backup C.

Seems like Management wants to move Horton-Tucker and Sexton, which they eventually will.

Have a choice to make on Hendricks replacing Olynyk, and if so, Olynyk won't be re-signed and at that point he becomes trade eligible as well since he wouldn't be needed for the rotation if Sophmorish Hendricks is deemed ready before the end of this season.

If you miss the play-in and are bottom 10, you keep your pick. You've got 3 1rst's in 2025, 1 in 2026, 4 in 2027 (1 is Top 4 Protected). You're going to be very good for a long time. I'd be hesitant to give up those Minnesota picks unless you had someone signed longterm. Anunoby would be great at SF, but you'd have to probably send Collins to the bench if Anunoby came on board. Don't know how he'd take it, or even accept it, but he would be great as a backup PF to Markkanen and backup C. And, Toronto would press for the Minnesota picks in 2025 and 2027, which I'd be reluctant to give up. They could be really low if that team has injuries or implodes.

I think that patience is the order of business. Allow the rookies to develop. Allow the front office to create time for the youngsters by eventually moving Talen Horton-Tucker and Sexton THIS YEAR. And just enjoy the ride.

Basically every move you've made the last 20 months has not only been a winner - but if not a Home Run, at least an xtra base hit.

[BigJimFinn]

Finish the rebuild? We just started it last season+1 game. We're ahead of schedule. I would guess that the Jazz will once again try to be good until the trade deadline in order to showcase the players on the roster, and then try to tank in earnest. It is possible that THT and Clarkson are starting in order to build their value for a trade down the line.

The problem with this approach is that starting just highlights the flaws of both, ie. the inability to run the offense or defend starter-level guards. Watching them dribble into trouble and get stuck on the ball time and time again is so painful, I would rather watch Tucker Carlson than the Tucker-Clarkson backcourt. Any team trading for either would likely want them for the second unit scorer/creator role they are best suited for. The obvious problem is that Sexton and George are also best suited for that role. Until Jazz trade away a couple of the redundant combo guards they are limiting each other and the team performance, but I guess Ainge is happy to stay another season in the plan to accumulate and flip assets for value.

And getting back a decent big wing defender would really help. Jazz did not have a single player capable of matching up physically with Paul George or Kawhi. Hendrix is the only hope on this roster, and I have never seen him play.

[Cappy_Smurf]

Worst team in the league gets a 14% chance at the #1 pick. That's 9.5% better odds than we had at #9.

How in the hell could we miss out on such a sure-fire strategy? Just bottom out for 10 - 15 years and we can't fail.

[Catchall]

Worst team in the league gets a 14% chance at the #1 pick. That's 9.5% better odds than we had at #9.

How in the hell could we miss out on such a sure-fire strategy? Just bottom out for 10 - 15 years and we can't fail.

The worst team in the league is guaranteed a top-5 pick. I'm not saying that the Jazz should try to be the worst team in the league, but if they have the opportunity to acquire another top 10 pick they should probably take advantage of it. We're really debating the difference between being the 9th or 10th seed vs. being the 11th or 12th seed. The difference might be just a few games.

[Inigo Montoya]

How bad can we really be with Markkanen and Kessler?

[bkohler]

Well, I’d like to find out how bad/good they can be instead of riding Olynyk, Dunn, Collins and Clarkson to 37 wins.

I’m completely fine being good as long as we’re good because of players who have a future here; not by playing a bunch of 30+ players.

[Inigo Montoya]

Well, I’d like to find out how bad/good they can be instead of riding Olynyk, Dunn, Collins and Clarkson to 37 wins.

I’m completely fine being good as long as we’re good because of players who have a future here; not by playing a bunch of 30+ players.

I don't have an issue with this approach in general--I've been preaching it myself for a long time--but timing is also an issue. This draft is supposed to be weak. The time to tank outright was last season, and the Jazz chose not to do that. My bet would be that the Jazz will try to win until the trade deadline, and if by then their record is clearly not good enough to make the playoffs, they'll unload some vets and shift to outright tanking just like last season. I don't expect them to throw away the season right from the jump when the draft is weak. I will say that from a cursory and very superficial look at the top projected prospects in the coming draft, there seem to be quite a few PGs, SGs and SFs, which are positions of need for the Jazz, so that's something.

[bkohler]

Well, I’d like to find out how bad/good they can be instead of riding Olynyk, Dunn, Collins and Clarkson to 37 wins.

I’m completely fine being good as long as we’re good because of players who have a future here; not by playing a bunch of 30+ players.

I don't have an issue with this approach in general--I've been preaching it myself for a long time--but timing is also an issue. This draft is supposed to be weak. The time to tank outright was last season, and the Jazz chose not to do that. My bet would be that the Jazz will try to win until the trade deadline, and if by then their record is clearly not good enough to make the playoffs, they'll unload some vets and shift to outright tanking just like last season. I don't expect them to throw away the season right from the jump when the draft is weak. I will say that from a cursory and very superficial look at the top projected prospects in the coming draft, there seem to be quite a few PGs, SGs and SFs, which are positions of need for the Jazz, so that's something.

I’m honestly less concerned about draft positioning in this years draft than I am making sure the young players we have currently get enough run. To me that’s the big issue currently is we’re cruising towards something around the tenth pick while limiting minutes of Kessler, Ochai, and Keyonte to say nothing of Hendricks and Bryce.

[Inigo Montoya]

I’m honestly less concerned about draft positioning in this years draft than I am making sure the young players we have currently get enough run. To me that’s the big issue currently is we’re cruising towards something around the tenth pick while limiting minutes of Kessler, Ochai, and Keyonte to say nothing of Hendricks and Bryce.

Geroge, Hendricks and Sensabaugh (screw it, I'm just going to call him the Sensei from now on) are all 19 year olds, they'll have plenty of time to get some run. Even if it's the d-league, it will still do them a lot of good, especially Hendricks. And George is already getting time right from the jump. Kessler and Agbaji are also getting time and frankly, both of them have been underwhelming so far. And with how the Jazz have been looking so far, maybe they won't even have to try that hard to tank, we just might be kinda bad this season. Somewhat surprisingly, Collins' fit hasn't been that much of an issue and he's been the most solid player so far other than Markkanen.

[AGE1207]

Well, I’d like to find out how bad/good they can be instead of riding Olynyk, Dunn, Collins and Clarkson to 37 wins.

I’m completely fine being good as long as we’re good because of players who have a future here; not by playing a bunch of 30+ players.

The thing is that these 30+ players can (and should) be excellent role models for these young guys. U don’t rebuild by simply allowing the young guys to play…U rebuild by teaching young players how to compete for their spot and showing them how to train, eat, win, fight and earn their spot.
E.g.Dunn maybe won’t win us a championship but there’s quite a few things George can learn from him still. And maybe in the longer term, George can win us a championship with that knowledge.

[bkohler]

Well, I’d like to find out how bad/good they can be instead of riding Olynyk, Dunn, Collins and Clarkson to 37 wins.

I’m completely fine being good as long as we’re good because of players who have a future here; not by playing a bunch of 30+ players.

The thing is that these 30+ players can (and should) be excellent role models for these young guys. U don’t rebuild by simply allowing the young guys to play…U rebuild by teaching young players how to compete for their spot and showing them how to train, eat, win, fight and earn their spot.
E.g.Dunn maybe won’t win us a championship but there’s quite a few things George can learn from him still. And maybe in the longer term, George can win us a championship with that knowledge.

I’m not certain this is true. I few good vet role players at the end of the bench makes sense, but I’ve never seen (although I’m open to examples) a team with young players who progress by overtaking 30s olds en mass.

Instead in my view teams tend to mature with reps - full speed best on best reps. Which is why things like playoff experience is so valuable. There’s no substitute for the real thing.

[Inigo Montoya]

I’m not certain this is true. I few good vet role players at the end of the bench makes sense, but I’ve never seen (although I’m open to examples) a team with young players who progress by overtaking 30s olds en mass.

Instead in my view teams tend to mature with reps - full speed best on best reps. Which is why things like playoff experience is so valuable. There’s no substitute for the real thing.

On the other hand, there have been plenty of teams who ran with a young core and let the young players play, only to lose a bunch of games every seasons and have their young players develop a lot of bad habits--the Houston Rockets come to mind.

And if playoff experience is so important, you'll need some vets and seasoned players to get there. Just turning it over to the young guys will make the Jazz a 20 win team. If they ran with George, Hendricks, Agbaji, Sensei, Kessler etc. it would be brutal. We also don't have 'old' players, the oldest one is Olynyk at 32, who is expiring and also a great locker room presence and a good connective piece. We have Clarkson at 31, Dunn at 29 who is a backup on a minimum deal, Fontecchio is next at 28 and he also gets very few minutes and is expiring. This team is actually quite young.

[bkohler]

I’m not certain this is true. I few good vet role players at the end of the bench makes sense, but I’ve never seen (although I’m open to examples) a team with young players who progress by overtaking 30s olds en mass.

Instead in my view teams tend to mature with reps - full speed best on best reps. Which is why things like playoff experience is so valuable. There’s no substitute for the real thing.

On the other hand, there have been plenty of teams who ran with a young core and let the young players play, only to lose a bunch of games every seasons and have their young players develop a lot of bad habits--the Houston Rockets come to mind.

And if playoff experience is so important, you'll need some vets and seasoned players to get there. Just turning it over to the young guys will make the Jazz a 20 win team. If they ran with George, Hendricks, Agbaji, Sensei, Kessler etc. it would be brutal. We also don't have 'old' players, the oldest one is Olynyk at 32, who is expiring and also a great locker room presence and a good connective piece. We have Clarkson at 31, Dunn at 29 who is a backup on a minimum deal, Fontecchio is next at 28 and he also gets very few minutes and is expiring. This team is actually quite young.

Sadly I wonder if the only real way to rebuild to a true competitor is to eventually get a franchise player who’s so good that they get playing time automatically.

Also, I agree that our roster isn’t super old… but player in our rotation skew older.

[bkohler]

This seemed like it fit this convo a bit. I can understand the concern about turning into the Rockets but that also feels like they didn’t care about the character of the players just went for the best talent… and honestly I kinda like their team now.

I think we just forget it that a true tear down to the studs and rebuild takes 4-5 years.

The pistons, thunder, spurs, pelicans, t-wolves and grizz all followed this pretty successfully recently.

I think you’re all making good points I just really worry we’re going to be the 2014 suns.

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