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Argentina 12 years ago was the last one. Which country will be the next non USA one to win gold at the Olympics?

Canada? Australia?

It'll never happen but maybe Canada if Wiggins turns into a superstar.

Maybe Australia if Ben Simmons pans out.

If another non-USA team wins it I doubt it will because another country rises above them talent wise. It'll be a similar situation to 2004, team USA will get lax and over confident and fall apart and someone will capitalize off of that like Argentina did.

USA can definitely lose again. They aren't playing best of 7s. When you get to the knockout round it's single game elimination. Even the 08 and 12 teams which were stacked to the hills and motivated played gold medal games against Spain that were both close in the 4th quarter before a late run put it away. This 16 team had two games that were decided by 3 points (though neither in the knockout round). They can certainly lose again, and international talent continues to grow. Add Ben Simmons to Australia in 4 years and even when accounting for a dip in play from Bogut that team will be real dangerous. Canada is on the come-up. France even after losing Parker will still field a good team, they keep producing talent and this year they didn't even have Fournier. Serbia gets an improved Jokic in 4 years after a silver this year (though kind of a Wack silver going 4-4). Still they gave the usa a good game in pool play

France

Very possible they lose in 2020. Canada and Australia could both be very good and if Team USA brings their B team again, who knows? I don't think they win this year if Durant doesn't play. Plenty of star players turned them down this year. If that happens in 2020, and other countries bring their best, it will be far from a guarantee. Also winning every game is hard enough as it is. Even great teams with a lot more talent lose every now and then, and after 5 straight international tournaments going undefeated they are certainly due.

Kuwait

Forget Canada. They face the same problems as the USA (lack of cohesiveness) but with significantly less talent.

Australia might have a chance, but many things have to go right. France keeps producing good players and will likely have a deep teem for years to come, but chances are they won't have the star potential to do it. Croatia is the country producing the top talent in Europe in the last few years, but they tipically struggle to make the most of it and it's mostly frontcourt players, so the playmaking and floor-general duties are always a concern.

All in all, I wouldn't bet on anybody.

Why only two options, one of which is currently nowhere close to being a top team?

Australia...yes. Serbia's core will be around for a while and throw in Bjelica, Marjanovic and young talent. Croatia has a lot of young talent. France will be strong with plenty of talent.

Also, the USA doesn't seem to have anywhere near the same level of talent in the last few years coming into the NBA as they had back in the time frame of Lebron, Durant, Carmello and Curry, those guys who are in their late 20s early 30s now.

The thing is you only need a good starting 5 in an Olympic gold game.. So USA can bring all the stars they want, you can only play 5. If some other country produced an LBJ esque player it would be a close game right down to the end because there's still only 5 guys and 1 ball. Imagine LBJ plus 4 great 3+D players and chemistry, it could be enough to put away USA In a single game knockout

Canada

Tristan Thompson / Kelly Olynyk / Robert Sacre
Trey Lyles / Andrew Nicholson/ Kelly Olynyk / Dwight Powell
Andrew Wiggins / Anthony Bennett
Nik Stauskas / Tyler Ennis
Jamal Murray / Cory Joseph


Australia

Andrew Bogut
Ben Simmons / Aron Baynes
Joe Ingles
Patty Mills
Dante Exum / Matthew Dellavedova


Canada looks like they will have a better team for 2020 but who knows.

It would be interesting to look at this question from the standpoint of growing population of country vs. growing popularity of sport in that country. That might have some predictive power.

If simmons can play wing

Guys like Mills excel at Fiba ball. Its just our wings are average. Ingles is ok but cant guard a chair. Offensively hes good in Fiba because he can take a 3 and is an excellent and willing passer. Broekhoff was in the team purely because he can stretch the floor

Think of
Bogut/Baynes
Maker/Humphroes
Simmons/Ingles
Mills/Exum
Delly


Thats a silver medal team

mihail_petkov wrote:Canada

Tristan Thompson / Kelly Olynyk / Robert Sacre
Trey Lyles / Andrew Nicholson/ Kelly Olynyk / Dwight Powell
Andrew Wiggins / Anthony Bennett
Nik Stauskas / Tyler Ennis
Jamal Murray / Cory Joseph


Australia

Andrew Bogut
Ben Simmons / Aron Baynes
Joe Ingles
Patty Mills
Dante Exum / Matthew Dellavedova


Canada looks like they will have a better team for 2020 but who knows.

Yeah I'm not sure Bogut will even be playing in 2020. They could go small and try to run teams. Team USA has a habit of slacking.

for Simmons and Exum coming there will be Bogut, Andersen and Ingles fading, while team Canada maybe will not have enough.

Maybe you should add France as an option, or Croatia.. in 4 years Saric, Hezonja, Zubac will be a huge FIBA big 3.

Not likely, but lots of teams 'can' win.

It's fiba rules, no superstar calls and just one game.

Serbia were probably the fourth best team in my opinion after Spain and Australia, but again given this is all best of one scenarios, anyone can win on any given night.

If Exum, Simmons and Maker become solid, Delly and Baynes improve etc, Australia keeps competing.

Spain, Lithuania, Serbia, Argentina will always have strong teams as well.

Again, not likely but not impossible.

while I could definitely see a few teams close the gap similar to how Spain did 8 years back, I just can't see America losing in the immediate future without some sort of political turmoil - i.e. the US doesn't field an olympic team out of protest or another USSR-style superpower emerges.

YogurtProducer wrote:The thing is you only need a good starting 5 in an Olympic gold game.. So USA can bring all the stars they want, you can only play 5.

that's an ignorant statement. while it is true that only five players can play at a time, players don't play the entire game and thus need to be relieved by backup players. likewise, some lineups match up better against different opposing teams. finally, players occasionally have off games, at which point it would be advantageous to reduce their minute load. thus having 12 all-star caliber players instead of just 5 is a tremendous advantage for any team.

I only see someone beating them if they get bored.

All 26 and under:

PG: Wall, Irving, Lillard
SG: Harden, Mccollum, Thompson, Middleton, Oladipo, Beal
SF: PG, Butler, Kawhi, Hayward
PF: AD, Favors, Green
C: Cousins, Drummond, Noel, Okafor

Could anyone beat a team assembled by these players? None of these players are all time greats (yet), and I feel they could have won the gold this year easily.

The scary thing is that these are the players that the US will always pump out. Team USA will never have a problem putting out 15 All-Star caliber players, and even if there are no generational talents from the US again (which isn't likely), I still don't see how they could lose.

Croatia may have a shot if a decent PG emerges.

Bogdanovic (31 in 2020), Hezonja(25), Samanic(20),Bender(23), Saric(26), Zubac(23), Zizic(23). Really stacked team from 3 to 5, great size, athleticism, shooting and passing.
Guards are an issue though and there are no good ball handlers (Saric, Bender and Samanic are good, but for PF's). Bogdanovic and Hezonja could play the SG so that could be taken care of, but someone needs to play the PG too. Lot's of mediocre talents. I would be really happy if we are able to produce at least Euroleague level PG.