nate33 wrote:payitforward wrote:...Could just say that, by and large, the best player in the draft isn't usually among the first 3 picks. Or, for that matter, in the first 5.
I gotta disagree with a bunch of these, or at least provide some context.
2023 - We do know that Wemby will be the best, barring a major injury.
You may not know, but the rest of us do.
2022 - Banchero (#1) or Chet (#2)
2021 - Mobely (#3) or Barnes (#4) or Cade (#1) with a small chance that Green (#2) or Suggs (#5) or Trey Murphy III (#17) move up the ranks.
2020 - Edwards (#1) or Haliburton (#12) Every GM in the league takes Edwards over Maxey right now because of his two-way play. It's not even arguable.
2019 - Morant (#2) or Zion (#1). And even if you want to say Zion hasn't lived up to the hype, it's because of injuries.
2018 - Doncic (#3) or SGA (#11)
2017 - Tatum (#3)
So that's a 7 year run where the top 3 pick was the best, or at least arguably the best player in the draft. 7 straight years! So let's not act like the draft is a random crapshoot. High picks matter....
Of course high picks matter, nate!
& of course there is every reason to
predict that Wemby
will be a generational player. All the same, let's work with a history of established facts not expectations!
Nor have I ever said that the pick process is a crapshoot -- or, obviously, that it's random. It is, however, imperfect -- &
inherently so:
1) the ability to pick is imperfect, obviously, although everyone does their best;
2) the future of any given prospect is uncertain.
Neither of those factors can be eliminated. Period. Nor are they about "basketball" in any particular way. They're true about all examples of taking action in conditions of uncertainty.
That's why, looking at a single well-remembered draft...
Darko Miličić is taken at #2,
Mike Sweetney goes 10 picks before David West.
Reece Gaines goes in the lottery while Boris Diaw, Kendrick Perkins & Josh Howard wait.
Jarvis Hayes goes at 10, while Kyle Korver is picked at 51.
Troy Bell goes mid R1 while Mo Williams is picked in the 2d half of R2
Ndudi Edi hears his name in R1 yet plays only 81 minutes, & R1 pick Žarko Čabarkapa logs a total of 1550 minutes in the league -- while, R2 picks Luke Walton, Steve Blake, Willie Green, Zaza Pachulia, James Jones, Keith Bogans & Matt Bonner combined to play
88 NBA seasons.
All in one draft!
A number of your other points also argue with positions I don't hold. I.e. I agree that jaylen Brown is very good, & Embiid would have been the best player in many many drafts, & Harden is a first ballot HOF player, Rose was terrific, etc.
But nothing eliminates the limitations that are inherent in "knowledge in advance." & nothing eliminates uncertainty on the players' sides as well -- whether of health, character, development, etc. Hence...
nate33 wrote:...So this idea that the best player in the draft isn't usually in the top 3 is pretty conclusively disproven.
In the last 20 drafts, the top 3 pick was best or at least arguably the best in 12 out of 20 drafts:
2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2012, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2004.
Lets leave out the last 3 drafts as too early to call. But go back 3 further to keep the same number. No in '01, No in '02, yes in '03. Hence, even if your claim were true, it would be 10 out of 20 -- flipping a coin.
But, your claim is not credible:
1. Tyrese is the best player out of the '20 draft.
2. Russ is the best player out of the '08 draft.
3. Dame is clearly better than AD (no shame in that!).
All human actions are taken by imperfect minds in conditions subject to uncertainty. That's why only a few Nobel Prize winners were Harvard undergraduates.
For similar reasons, not many of the best NBA players were picked in the top 3.
Giannis, Jokic, SG-A, Luka, Haliburton, Kawhi, Embiid & Jimmy Butler would be 8 of the names on anyone's list of the 10 best players in the NBA today. A pair of #3 picks. The others taken at 12, 12, 15, 15, 30 & 41.
nate33 wrote:... there are really only 3 out of 20 drafts where all 3 of the top 3 picks would be considered disappointing....
Fair enough, but you are disproving a claim I would never have made!
Drop it, nate --
-- there's nothing to argue about here, & you know that I have a high regard for your basketball commentary!