EvanZ's 2021 Big Board

EvanZ · Post #1 » by **EvanZ** » Tue May 25, 2021 5:00 pm

Finally got around to assembling something. Let me know your thoughts.

EvanZ · Post #2 » by **EvanZ** » Tue May 25, 2021 6:12 pm

A couple guys I forgot that should be in here. Jared Butler at 26 in the 3rd tier. And then Trey Murphy somewhere in the next tier.

Charm · Post #3 » by **Charm** » Tue May 25, 2021 8:08 pm

Surprised you're not higher on Sengun overall given that you buy his shooting potential. If he can shoot then he's really the complete package offensively.

EvanZ · Post #4 » by **EvanZ** » Tue May 25, 2021 8:16 pm

Charm wrote:Surprised you're not higher on Sengun overall given that you buy his shooting potential. If he can shoot then he's really the complete package offensively.

10 is not high enough? :lol:

I mean even if he shoots, defense is a real issue with him.

Charm · Post #5 » by **Charm** » Tue May 25, 2021 8:51 pm

EvanZ wrote:
Charm wrote:Surprised you're not higher on Sengun overall given that you buy his shooting potential. If he can shoot then he's really the complete package offensively.

10 is not high enough?

I mean even if he shoots, defense is a real issue with him.

He's pretty raw defensively now, but he's 18, has a good motor, good basketball IQ, and (at least) adequate physical tools/athleticism. Ingredients are there for him to develop into a capable defensive big over time. If guys like Sabonis, Vucevic and Randle can survive on defense, then surely Sengun can.

EvanZ · Post #6 » by **EvanZ** » Tue May 25, 2021 10:12 pm

Yeah I mean, 10 is pretty high. Not sure how much higher you think he should go? 8?

Charm · Post #7 » by **Charm** » Tue May 25, 2021 10:24 pm

EvanZ wrote:Yeah I mean, 10 is pretty high. Not sure how much higher you think he should go? 8?

I happen to be particularly bullish on Sengun, but I think that whole Sengun/Giddey/Johnson group could make a strong case that their ceilings are on the level of Moody/Barnes/Kuminga/Wagner, and a cut above the rest of the guys in "the rest" grouping.

The ordering within that hypothetical Moody/Barnes/Kuminga/Wagner/Sengun/Giddey/Johnson group would then be pretty arbitrary, down to how different players fit on different teams.

EvanZ · Post #8 » by **EvanZ** » Tue May 25, 2021 11:33 pm

Fair point. I could see moving those 3 into the higher tier as well.

Hal14 · Post #9 » by **Hal14** » Wed May 26, 2021 3:24 am

Charm wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
Charm wrote:Surprised you're not higher on Sengun overall given that you buy his shooting potential. If he can shoot then he's really the complete package offensively.

10 is not high enough?

I mean even if he shoots, defense is a real issue with him.

He's pretty raw defensively now, but he's 18, has a good motor, good basketball IQ, and (at least) adequate physical tools/athleticism. Ingredients are there for him to develop into a capable defensive big over time. If guys like Sabonis, Vucevic and Randle can survive on defense, then surely Sengun can.

Vucevic is terrible on defense. Watching him play is literally like watching 2 different players. The all star on offense and the scrub on D..

Hal14 · Post #10 » by **Hal14** » Wed May 26, 2021 3:31 am

Just looking at most of the mock drafts and big boards I've seen, you've got Keon Johnson, Kai Jones, Davion Mitchell, Kispert and Garuba all much lower than consensus.

Any reason for Mitchell so low? I'm seeing the consensus on him seems to be the 7-12 range. Dude is 6'2" with a 6'5" wingspan and a 41 inch vertical. Good PGs with size, who can score from all 3 levels as well as create offense for their teammates and defend at a high level are gold in the modern NBA.

Mitchell was NCAA defensive player of the year. He's got a strong frame that's already filled out, quick as hell with tremendous blow-by speed to get by people off the dribble and lethal shooter, 44.7% from 3. Had a low usage % of 20.3% and super high assist rate of 27.7% which is perfect. 27 seems insanely low for him. If he's still there at 16 and my Celtics pass on him I'd be furious..

EvanZ · Post #11 » by **EvanZ** » Wed May 26, 2021 1:34 pm

Hal14 wrote:Just looking at most of the mock drafts and big boards I've seen, you've got Keon Johnson, Kai Jones, Davion Mitchell, Kispert and Garuba all much lower than consensus.

Any reason for Mitchell so low? I'm seeing the consensus on him seems to be the 7-12 range. Dude is 6'2" with a 6'5" wingspan and a 41 inch vertical. Good PGs with size, who can score from all 3 levels as well as create offense for their teammates and defend at a high level are gold in the modern NBA.

Mitchell was NCAA defensive player of the year. He's got a strong frame that's already filled out, quick as hell with tremendous blow-by speed to get by people off the dribble and lethal shooter, 44.7% from 3. Had a low usage % of 20.3% and super high assist rate of 27.7% which is perfect. 27 seems insanely low for him. If he's still there at 16 and my Celtics pass on him I'd be furious..

Where was Mitchell on any draft board or mock before the season? The dude had an outlier good 3P% shooting season. His FT% still sucks. He benefited from maybe the best spacing in college. He's super old.

Anyone who drafts him in the Lottery is a sucker imo. Is he a rotation guard? Sure. Is he going to be substantially better than Lu Dort? Probably not.

BTW most draft boards are just copying Givony with a slight jitter. It's pretty ridiculous. People are brain dead.

Charm · Post #12 » by **Charm** » Wed May 26, 2021 3:16 pm

I commented in part because your board is probably the most similar to my own that I've seen, though that's not saying much because most boards are so similar :lol:

My "dishonorable mentions" list when ranking my top-15 was Keon, Kispert, Jones, and Bouknight. I believe in Garuba's defensive ceiling, so I have him a bit higher, fringe lottery pending his performance in the playoffs.

Mitchell earned an "honorable mention" because I want to like him, but he's just not an outlier kind of prospect...I think McBride is better if you wanted to draft that kind of player.

As a minor note, it's interesting that you included Liddell on your board, as I haven't seen him much elsewhere. His raw production as an NCAA sophomore is hard to ignore. I think he's likely to carve out a role in the NBA despite not looking like a classic NBA PF.

Our only major disagreements are on Sengun and Cade. I seriously think Sengun's the best prospect in this draft...if you compare him at 18 to other elite centers at 18, he's on another planet offensively. And while his defensive fundamentals are still raw, he's nonetheless leading a reasonably strong professional league in steal+block rate. The sky's the limit.

I like Cade's shooting, but I don't think he has the quickness, handle, or strength to get where he wants to go off the dribble. Put him in a primary ballhandling role against NBA defenders and they'll eat him alive. His lack of functional athleticism in the paint is another serious weakness...in terms of dunk rate and offensive rebound rate, he's probably among the worst lottery wings of all time. I think he'll find a role thanks to his shooting, length, and all-around IQ, but he doesn't have the ceiling of some of these other prospects.

Hal14 · Post #13 » by **Hal14** » Wed May 26, 2021 4:15 pm

EvanZ wrote:
Hal14 wrote:Just looking at most of the mock drafts and big boards I've seen, you've got Keon Johnson, Kai Jones, Davion Mitchell, Kispert and Garuba all much lower than consensus.

Any reason for Mitchell so low? I'm seeing the consensus on him seems to be the 7-12 range. Dude is 6'2" with a 6'5" wingspan and a 41 inch vertical. Good PGs with size, who can score from all 3 levels as well as create offense for their teammates and defend at a high level are gold in the modern NBA.

Mitchell was NCAA defensive player of the year. He's got a strong frame that's already filled out, quick as hell with tremendous blow-by speed to get by people off the dribble and lethal shooter, 44.7% from 3. Had a low usage % of 20.3% and super high assist rate of 27.7% which is perfect. 27 seems insanely low for him. If he's still there at 16 and my Celtics pass on him I'd be furious..

Where was Mitchell on any draft board or mock before the season? The dude had an outlier good 3P% shooting season. His FT% still sucks. He benefited from maybe the best spacing in college. He's super old.

Anyone who drafts him in the Lottery is a sucker imo. Is he a rotation guard? Sure. Is he going to be substantially better than Lu Dort? Probably not.

BTW most draft boards are just copying Givony with a slight jitter. It's pretty ridiculous. People are brain dead.

If he had a 10 year career where every season he shot 20% and then out of nowhere he shoots 44.7% from 3, that's an outlier.

But Mitchell played 3 years of college basketball. He went from 29% to 32% to 45%. That simply shows me that he worked on his game and improved each year. Looking at those numbers, one might even project that next season that % goes up even more, since that's the growth trajectory he's on.

22 is "super old"? LOL. You might see 22 and think he has low upside. I see a 22 year old who is improving at a rapid rate and despite only being 6'2" he's got a 6'5" wingspan and a 41 inch vertical leap, crazy blow-by speed, crazy athleticism so still a ton of upside. Plus, not all teams want to draft a 19 year old kid who is a project, unpolished and far from a finished product so won't be able to contribute to a winning team for probably 3 years. Mitchell is ready now. There's a few teams in the lottery who are not in full blown rebuild mode, who could use a more polished player to get them back to the playoffs as early as next season (warriors, hornets, pacers, spurs, pelicans, Raptors) so a guy like Mitchell could be ideal for them.

You see him as no better than Lou Dort. I see Donovan Mitchell except Davion is 1 inch taller, better defensively and has more of a PG's game rather than a SG..not bad, considering Donovan is the best player on the team that finished with the best record in the league.

EvanZ · Post #14 » by **EvanZ** » Wed May 26, 2021 4:34 pm

Good luck with that assessment.

Charm · Post #15 » by **Charm** » Wed May 26, 2021 4:46 pm

Donovan Mitchell at age 22 was the leading scorer for a 50-win NBA team...I think he's just a smidge ahead of Davion in that particular area.

Alonzo_Morning · Post #16 » by **Alonzo_Morning** » Wed May 26, 2021 5:02 pm

Hal14 wrote:
Charm wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
10 is not high enough?

I mean even if he shoots, defense is a real issue with him.

He's pretty raw defensively now, but he's 18, has a good motor, good basketball IQ, and (at least) adequate physical tools/athleticism. Ingredients are there for him to develop into a capable defensive big over time. If guys like Sabonis, Vucevic and Randle can survive on defense, then surely Sengun can.

Vucevic is terrible on defense. Watching him play is literally like watching 2 different players. The all star on offense and the scrub on D..

Can't believe Chicago traded a lightly protected lottery pick for Vuc. SMH

Hal14 · Post #17 » by **Hal14** » Mon May 31, 2021 11:47 pm

no Isaiah Todd?

EvanZ · Post #18 » by **EvanZ** » Thu Jun 3, 2021 10:09 pm

Hal14 wrote:no Isaiah Todd?

Yeah he should be on there, that was an oversight. Maybe end of first/early second.

EvanZ · Post #19 » by **EvanZ** » Thu Jul 1, 2021 7:31 pm

Update

Read on Twitter

Hal14 · Post #20 » by **Hal14** » Thu Jul 1, 2021 10:09 pm

EvanZ wrote:Update

Read on Twitter

Overall it looks solid. Curious though why Julian Champagnie so high?

Also, any reason for Santi Aldama, Vrenz Bleijenbergh, DJ Carton and Trendon Watford being omitted? I feel like they could be 2nd round steals..

Good to see I'm not the only one with Wieskamp over Kispert. I feel like they're pretty close, but Wieskamp with longer wingspan, more athleticism and 1 year younger to me puts him just ahead of Kispert - looks like you agree.. But still it's crazy that some have Kispert as high as 12 and Wieskamp as low as 62..