I've looked at a few different recent mock drafts now, and I do realize that mine is fairly different. I stand by most of these impressions as of right now, but I definitely do want to note some mistakes.
I missed on
Ryan Dunn. Feels obvious- he should be here. I wasn't aware of just how good his defensive impact is.
I think not including
Dillon Mitchell,
Baba Miller, or
Trey Alexander is probably an oversight as well. I don't think I was as high on them as prospects last year, but I think I do a disservice to the improvements they have made so far this year, they should probably be included.
DJ Wagner,
Trevon Brazile, and
Dillon Jones should probably be on here. I can see a good case for
Dalton Knecht,
Terrence Shannon,
Oso Ighodaro, and
Tristan da Silva; though I think they'd be more borderline.
I'm not sure I'm sold on the idea of
Tidjane Salaun,
Melvin Ajinca,
Riley Kugel,
Jared McCain,
Elliot Cadeau,
Mark Mitchell, or
Berke Buyuktuncel declaring for 2024. I'm sure some will and any of those who do will likely get drafted, I should probably mock accordingly. Yet I think it's reasonable that all could improve their situations by waiting a(nother) year, though it's just a guess.
I do have some guys that likely won't be declaring this year on my list anyways; I think
Tyler Harris can (and will) rise to legitimacy much like Taylor Hendricks did at UCF last year, but there are still plenty of games left to be played to warrant that sort of consideration, and I don't think he'd quite be a lottery pick the same way Hendricks was. But that certainly depends on if scouts think similarly. I also think
Sam Alexis is a genuine breakout player, though I'm not sure Chattanooga will provide the notoriety this season he'd need for clear NBA attention.
Judah Mintz is fairly popular on mocks, but this might not be a great year for him to declare either.
Bruce Thornton,
DaRon Holmes,
Xaivian Lee (stellar season that he's having so far),
Harrison Ingram, and
Cade Tyson all very well might be more likely to stay in college.
However, I do think I still have a few players included that I'm very surprised aren't more popular in other mocks:
Otega Oweh has taken the reigns of a surprisingly good Oklahoma team in his 2nd college season. I can see why the NBA might be hesitant to consider a 6'5" wing without a 3 point shot too highly, as he's only taken 5 shots from distance all season (and made all of them, though his FT% suggests that's mostly just luck). However, I think everything else about the way he's played this season, including helping to spur an upset over USC, has shown why a glass-half-full perspective might be in order: Imagine what Oweh can do when he develops a shot.
It could certainly just be me, but Oweh sort of reminds me of Jimmy Butler in playstyle. He's certainly not Jimmy's size (probably closer to Dwyane Wade's), and he's still a long ways away from being that kind of player in a league like the NBA. But he's taken a massive leap this year already as a solid two way player and I can't help but think at least the path for him to get there is visible.
Milan Momcilovic was a top 50 high school prospect averaging 14 ppg on lights-out shooting so far on a high-major college team. I feel like I'm missing something.
I sort of understand why
Killian Malwaya might not be on mocks right now. I think a prospect that isn't even playing in a premier league (Malwaya is in France's LNB
Pro B) probably isn't garnering the most attention right now. However, I do think Malwaya has been considered as a valuable potential prospect for the future. While his competition is not elite, I think he is still leapfrogging a few of his fellow French prospects at this particular moment in time. Other rather promising French prospects in Pro B such as
Ilias Kamardine,
Zacharie Perrin, and
Noah Penda show just how far ahead Malwaya has surged by comparison.
I can see why
KJ Lewis may not have distanced himself from McCain and Cadeau as a one-and-done worth widely considering yet, but Lewis has established a clear role on an extremely deep team that doesn't exactly have many minutes to give and I think he's done the best job so far in proving why. He seems like a jack of all trades but master of none, though I think he's genuinely good enough at everything to carry over that versatility to the NBA- something that I think is very difficult to achieve even for many with such aspirations. Arizona certainly appreciates his impact and I do think it shows.
Hansen Yang not being universally mocked seems like one of the biggest oversights around, perhaps equivalent to how I missed Ryan Dunn. I don't care what anybody's' impression of the CBA is-- Hansen Yang is the co-star of a really good team there. Like most pro leagues, there aren't many young players getting any playing time, only a handful of players under 21 have even an end of bench spot. And 18 year old Hansen Yang is *co-starring* with ex-Seton Hall star/Philadelphia 76er injury replacement Myles Powell.
His 3-point shot is still too poor to be legitimate and he absolutely still needs to hone his playmaking, averaging 3.7 assists to 3.9 turnovers per game- concerns I can understand that NBA teams might have. However, he's still a 7-1 C averaging about 17 ppg, 13 rpg, and 3 blocks per game too. I think his performance at the FIBA U19 World Cup drew some attention as a true potential unicorn who was very raw and a few years away. I don't know how many of those scouts are aware that he IS starring in a professional league right now, and even if he still isn't quite NBA ready, he might not even be as far away as many had originally thought. He absolutely should be considered a VERY real 2024 prospect and I would think the only question is where he would be drafted, not if he would.
Iowa St might just be disappointing in relative terms, but
Tamin Lipsey should be a prospect. His jump shot has shown clear improvement, and even if it's still a work in progress it is legitimate. He's undersized but he's one of the few guys who I think is rather clearly good enough to compensate for it.
Speaking of undersized guards who still strike me as clear NBA prospects, I'm surprised at how little attention
Mark Sears has. Perhaps the perception of Alabama is just low after losses to Ohio St and Clemson? Sears did take a pretty big step back in transitioning from mid-major Ohio to Alabama last year, and perhaps it will take more games against top schools at his current pace to win NBA teams over- but his current pace is blistering. I think he figured it out. The NBA is another huge talent gap also, but now he's developing a track record of being able to adjust.
I think the OTE program has largely been met with hesitance by the NBA, but it hasn't been completely ignored. I think media has largely ignored just how talented the prospects that have entered the program are, and I think they have honed those skills in a gauntlet of the highest precision. However, I do not think they've really had a good environment to apply those skills and I'm not sure their exhibition season has really had the same effect as even a high school competitive circuit, let alone a college or international professional circuit. I think both of these things are generally apparent in Summer League/preseason showcases that have included OTE players.
I may be overestimating
Robert Dillingham (and the game against UNC Wilmington last night may be evidence), but I also think he is being slighted a bit too. Bleacher Report compared him to Bones Hyland, and with all due respect to Bones Hyland, I think that underrates Dillingham's abilities. Dillingham is not a combo guard-- even if he likes to shoot at high volume, he is an excellent passer. I think it's easy to dismiss a prized Kentucky guard as a combo guard because that seems like what practically all of them have been over the past couple years (TyTy Washington, Cason Wallace, Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander [though he is a good true PG], Jamal Murray, Devin Booker). Dillingham is not that. As much as he likes to shoot, his AST% is still 39% of possessions. Even after last night's game, his AST/TO ratio is still 3.31.
I think it speaks to his ball handling, isolation intuitiveness, and quick shot to compare him to Bones Hyland in that manner. But I think the way that Dillingham has so quickly adjusted to his role on his team at the college level does not get enough attention. I probably overrated him at 3, but he should be a lottery pick, and perhaps top 10 still.
I think I could be overestimating the potential intrigue of
Bryson Warren, who has not been stellar in the G League. However, he is not part of the G League Ignite program, he is playing on a far more experienced team (Sioux Falls Skyforce).
Teafale Lenard (formerly of Middle Tennessee St) is in a similar situation for the Texas Legends and is unable to establish a role on the team as of yet. However, Warren has received opportunities and had a few games where he really broke out and looked solid. I'm not sure if teams will take stock in the mere flashes, and enough to draft him rather than simply leave a Summer League roster spot open, but I wouldn't disregard the possibility. I do think it's admirable that Warren jumped straight from OTE into perhaps the toughest level of competition for a prospect (save for maybe a few international leagues like Spain), and also one where he would likely have less notoriety. And even though he's been struggling a bit, I'd say he's genuinely staying afloat.