What happened to Chet Holmgren?

[madskillz8]

Depends on what you expect him to be. Superstar? Top 10 player? That's too much. He's going to be a solid starter, and that's okay.

He's one of the best rookie players I've seen in 15 years and people are thinking disappointing

He's anchoring a defense of a team in the second round of the playoffs, while "Too skinny" is one of the better handful of centers in the NBA

People think they need a "Big body" next to him are insane. OKC overall don't rebound great. It's not Chets *fault* yeah he can be bodied sometimes, but he's 19 and has amazing anticipation for blocks. Shifting him to PF just means he gets harder match ups on offense and plays worse.

I've never seen people **** on a dude in his first season in the second round of the NBA finals because he doesn't "Get lots of stats!" My god

One thing, you actually have his age wrong. He is 22, not 19.

Not a shot at brutalitops who probably confused his age but it is what happens when a player is systematically hyped in NBA circles - he becomes younger and his stats increase. In this thread I've just read he averaged 3 blocks per game, while his season average is 2.3. 2.3 is already very impressive but not enough for his hype, thus he says not 2, not 2.5, but 3.0.

Also, he's probably 7'3 already. As a rule of thumb, in realGM, if you are trying to glorify player X who averages 12 points as a 21 year old - you should say "X AVERAGED ALMOST 15 AS A TEENAGER", but criticizing player B who averages 18 as a 21 year old you should prefer something like, AT HIS AGE KOBE WAS A CHAMPION BUT Y BARELY AVERAGED 15 POINTS"

[sikma42]

He's one of the best rookie players I've seen in 15 years and people are thinking disappointing

He's anchoring a defense of a team in the second round of the playoffs, while "Too skinny" is one of the better handful of centers in the NBA

People think they need a "Big body" next to him are insane. OKC overall don't rebound great. It's not Chets *fault* yeah he can be bodied sometimes, but he's 19 and has amazing anticipation for blocks. Shifting him to PF just means he gets harder match ups on offense and plays worse.

I've never seen people **** on a dude in his first season in the second round of the NBA finals because he doesn't "Get lots of stats!" My god

One thing, you actually have his age wrong. He is 22, not 19.

Not a shot at brutalitops who probably confused his age but it is what happens when a player is systematically hyped in NBA circles - he becomes younger and his stats increase. In this thread I've just read he averaged 3 blocks per game, while his season average is 2.3. 2.3 is already very impressive but not enough for his hype, thus he says not 2, not 2.5, but 3.0.

Also, he's probably 7'3 already. As a rule of thumb, in realGM, if you are trying to glorify player X who averages 12 points as a 21 year old - you should say "X AVERAGED ALMOST 15 AS A TEENAGER", but criticizing player B who averages 18 as a 21 year old you should prefer something like, AT HIS AGE KOBE WAS A CHAMPION BUT Y BARELY AVERAGED 15 POINTS"

This. Just remember that Chet and Anthony Edwards are both 22 years old. Chet has a lot to develop due to his body type but 22 isn’t super young and some of his skill deficiencies need to be looked at. There is a lot of stuff that he can’t do, that Wemby does and it’s a skill thing.

I’m still very high on Chet and think he will be an all star for a long time. But he has some questions to answer about his strength/rebounding/shooting. For someone that shoots 37% on basically wide open shots, he gets hyped as a shooter a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wemby ends up the better shooter too.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[cupcakesnake]

Pretty spot on assessment. The holmgren vs banchero thread isn't going to age well.

He's spot on for calling him "more of a Tayshaun than Duncan"?

Yeah sure... he's Tayshaun... if Tayshaun was 7'1" barefoot, averaged 3 blocks per game, and could bang threes. Tayshaun except he's a ball handling center than can space and rim protect. What on earth does he have to do with Tayshaun Prince (a player that I was a huge fan of, for the record) ???

I don't think anyone was every saying Chet=Timmy. I think people were pointing our Chet is having an insane rookie season. Sure, you can be like: well what is the context for this rookie season, but that doesn't make it not count or not pop up when comparing historical rookie seasons. Having a great rookie season also doesn't guarantee that Chet will become Tim Duncan, a top 5 player of all-time.

Chet's ability to fit in next to high-end player and provide tons of value without needing the ball is one of the biggest parts of his value. If it was Paolo in OKC, we'd be trying to figure out how on earth to maximize Shai, Jalen, and Paolo at the same time, while the Thunder struggled to figure out rim/paint protection.

If you only measure player value by their ability to self-create, you miss the value of tons of players who bring real championship equity (that includes Duncan! Who's self creation was good but not great). Chet has a high likelihood of becoming a DPOY quality player on that end, while being able to space the floor, pass, and attack off the dribble on the other. Insanely valuable player type and I still have no idea what Tayshaun Prince has to do with any of this. Chet's rookie season is way above Tayshaun Prince's best season.

Come on, I never said that. I also said people are comparing Chet's rookie season to Tim Duncan's rookie season, not they are saying Chet=Timmy, lol.

I was definitely talking about the role - not physically or style-wise. Fills an important role on a contender, plug & play, but not an offensive threat who opponents try to stop. Differently from many other top picks who had more offensive responsibility in their very first NBA season.

And when someone says "he's more of a Tayshaun than Duncan", he is likely referring to a spectrum, instead of a direct comparison. I expect him to be an extremely impactful player with 3/4th option on offense and knows his role well. Yes, in a spectrum, it is more of a Tayshaun than Duncan for a contender team.

We are talking about a player who made 4 all-defense teams in his first 6 seasons who also averages 14+ points per game for a contender in a slow-paced low scoring era. Not some scrub.

I'm a huge Tayshaun fan. I'm aware of his abilities and that he's not a scrub.

But he was also never a defensive anchor, like Chet already is. Then role wise on offense (in his prime) Tayshaun was more of a tertiary creator that you needed to feed the ball to get value out of. Tayshaun was a meh shooter and an average cutter, but you could get some offense out of him if you let him operate out of the high post or handle the ball on the wing.

Prime Tayshaun was a 4th option on offense, and a wing stopper specialist who was the 3rd best defender on his team.

If you're saying that rookie Chet is closer to prime Tayshaun than prime Duncan, I can agree with that. I'm confused what your spectrum is. Rookie versions of Tayshaun, Chet, and Duncan? Chet is obviously way closer to Duncan. It kind of sounds like you're comparing rookie Chet to rookie Duncan and prime Tayshaun? I'm not trying to assume, I just don't know what you're saying.

Chet's is heavily involved in OKC's offense as a spacer, cutter/roller, and ball handler. Yes, he's the 3rd option without a big reps of on-ball primacy, but I think it's too simplistic a way of understanding basketball to think that role is only measured by on-ball reps. It's like thinking 2006 Ricky Davis had a bigger role than Kevin Garnett, or Chuck Person/Rik Smits had a bigger offensive role than Reggie Miller.

He's the 2nd or 3rd most valuable title on a contender... as a rookie. I think you're underrating what he's doing.

[BlazersBroncos]

He is a freaking rookie playing the #3 role on a legit contender and the #1 seed in the West.

I have to assume its the social media generation fueling these snap reactions. One bad game and people would be throwing MJ to the wolves and waxing poetic about how he is a fraud. Its insane. I hate this timeline.

[Bornstellar]

He's a "rookie" playing in his first real season and has played a lot of games for OKC thus far, so it's not surprising he has hit the wall. He is still playing pretty well all things considered though

[ConSarnit]

He is a freaking rookie playing the #3 role on a legit contender and the #1 seed in the West.

I have to assume its the social media generation fueling these snap reactions. One bad game and people would be throwing MJ to the wolves and waxing poetic about how he is a fraud. Its insane. I hate this timeline.

Allow me to frustrate you even more.

The contention here is “what happened to Chet?”

Post-all star game Chet is actually shooting better at the rim and from midrange. His 3pt% has declined. He just finished his first playoff series where the Pels scored at something like 30% when he was defending the rim (and absurdly low number).

So, pretty much the only thing that happened to Chet is he’s hitting less 3’s. How many you ask? Well, for Chet to have maintained his 3pt shooting he would have needed to hit 7 more 3’s after the all-star break.

THIS ENTIRE PREMISE OF THIS THREAD IS BASED OF 7 MISSED THREES. THAT’S IT.

We need a downvote button for posters like the OP.

[Slimjimzv]

He did look tired after the all star break, but that's to be expected from someone who's never played this many games. However, the divided two weeks rest after the season and after the Pelicans series appears to have fully refreshed him. He wasn't hitting all his shots last night, but his legs looked fresh. I think Chet is fine. And for those trying to argue that he's not a young player . . . what? JDub is 23. Is he old too?

[Special_Puppy]

Chet would still win ROTY in literally any other year the way he is playing (and with 90%+ of first place votes too). He was shooting extremely hot and has cooled down

[Rainwater]

Yeah, this thread is a bit much. This is his first actual season.

[MoneyTalks41890]

One thing, you actually have his age wrong. He is 22, not 19.

Not a shot at brutalitops who probably confused his age but it is what happens when a player is systematically hyped in NBA circles - he becomes younger and his stats increase. In this thread I've just read he averaged 3 blocks per game, while his season average is 2.3. 2.3 is already very impressive but not enough for his hype, thus he says not 2, not 2.5, but 3.0.

Also, he's probably 7'3 already. As a rule of thumb, in realGM, if you are trying to glorify player X who averages 12 points as a 21 year old - you should say "X AVERAGED ALMOST 15 AS A TEENAGER", but criticizing player B who averages 18 as a 21 year old you should prefer something like, AT HIS AGE KOBE WAS A CHAMPION BUT Y BARELY AVERAGED 15 POINTS"

This. Just remember that Chet and Anthony Edwards are both 22 years old. Chet has a lot to develop due to his body type but 22 isn’t super young and some of his skill deficiencies need to be looked at. There is a lot of stuff that he can’t do, that Wemby does and it’s a skill thing.

I’m still very high on Chet and think he will be an all star for a long time. But he has some questions to answer about his strength/rebounding/shooting. For someone that shoots 37% on basically wide open shots, he gets hyped as a shooter a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wemby ends up the better shooter too.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

I mean Chet turned 22 last week and Ant turns 23 in a couple months, so they are a year apart.

But he’s going to be a perennial DPOY candidate who can stretch the floor and will keep OKC in contention for a long time.

[The Real Dalic]

Chet would still win ROTY in literally any other year the way he is playing (and with 90%+ of first place votes too). He was shooting extremely hot and has cooled down

I disagree, Paolo would likely still win his ROY. Morant would probably still win his. The Ant and Lamelo year would be more interesting. Chet would definitely be in the conversation every year like he was this year, but I have a problem with discrediting other RotY winners just because Chet is good.

[ShootersShoot]

Man what a stupid thread

[Michael Jackson]

They need a big and have him play PF. He really isn’t a center.

PF isn't a real position

That is true

[jourdy]

I'm pretty sure this is a reverse jinx thread

[byeganyo]

Not a shot at brutalitops who probably confused his age but it is what happens when a player is systematically hyped in NBA circles - he becomes younger and his stats increase. In this thread I've just read he averaged 3 blocks per game, while his season average is 2.3. 2.3 is already very impressive but not enough for his hype, thus he says not 2, not 2.5, but 3.0.

Also, he's probably 7'3 already. As a rule of thumb, in realGM, if you are trying to glorify player X who averages 12 points as a 21 year old - you should say "X AVERAGED ALMOST 15 AS A TEENAGER", but criticizing player B who averages 18 as a 21 year old you should prefer something like, AT HIS AGE KOBE WAS A CHAMPION BUT Y BARELY AVERAGED 15 POINTS"

This. Just remember that Chet and Anthony Edwards are both 22 years old. Chet has a lot to develop due to his body type but 22 isn’t super young and some of his skill deficiencies need to be looked at. There is a lot of stuff that he can’t do, that Wemby does and it’s a skill thing.

I’m still very high on Chet and think he will be an all star for a long time. But he has some questions to answer about his strength/rebounding/shooting. For someone that shoots 37% on basically wide open shots, he gets hyped as a shooter a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wemby ends up the better shooter too.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

I mean Chet turned 22 last week and Ant turns 23 in a couple months, so they are a year apart.

But he’s going to be a perennial DPOY candidate who can stretch the floor and will keep OKC in contention for a long time.

They arent a year apart, they are 9 months apart, that's why months were invented

[Nazrmohamed]

They need a big and have him play PF. He really isn’t a center.

If it ends up that way, then Chet’s value drops tremendously.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Why would it drop? I think things are evolving again to where size matters more than ever. However, I think it's too early still to say he's not a C. He's lanky at either position so I hope it's not that alone that's creating that mindset. Players typically get bigger in the offseason. He just needs a weight program and peyote will see him as that C. Just know the same goes for Wemby if these guys are forever linked.

[Rust_Cohle]

He’s good but far from great and needs to learn how to take advantage of his size more

[DrModesty]

Defensively he is already an absolutely elite rim protector both in the number of blocks, and the FG% allowed. There are physicality matchups that he sometimes struggles to cope with, but also sometimes deals with fine.

Offensively he is the equivalent of a good 4th option or mediocre 3rd option who provides massive competitive advantage as a stretch 5.

Hopefully his development takes him to perennial all defense and 2a/2b offensive option (Given his teammates) when he is on his max contract.

[Kiss of Death]

He's getting outmanned and outplayed by the Mavs rookie backup center.
He has zero chance against Jokic or the twin towers in Minnesota. He will get destroyed.
He's a good player now and he will probably be a great center one day.
The people that are saying that he is a top 5 center in the NBA RIGHT NOW are the reason that this thread exists.

[MoneyTalks41890]

He's getting outmanned and outplayed by the Mavs rookie backup center.
He has zero chance against Jokic or the twin towers in Minnesota. He will get destroyed.
He's a good player now and he will probably be a great center one day.
The people that are saying that he is a top 5 center in the NBA RIGHT NOW are the reason that this thread exists.

You would need to not be watching at all to think Lively is outplaying him. In game 1 he was elite protecting the rim, and has been great at times the other two games. He’s definitely a top 5 center already and he played 82 RS games already, we’ve seen him win those matchups already, and we’ve seen him lose some as happens with everyone.

But he’s a top 3 rim protector, and a top 5 C. It’s his offense that needs to get more consistent which is what he has to work on.