Do we consider variance in eras’ draft strength enough?
Posted: Wed Apr 24, 2024 7:37 pm
Do we consider enough the idiosyncratic strength of the top-tier players in different players’ draft generations? I think it is generally safe to say that talent in the NBA is virtually always going up in general, as the league becomes more international, more popular, and more lucrative. But talent at the very top end of the league really won’t necessarily fit that trend—there’s a lot of randomness when you’re inherently talking about players that are in the extreme right tail of talent. And, in fact, I think we have seen there be spans where a bunch of MVP-level players come into the league, and other spans where there’s very few people who will become MVP-level. And the more I think about it, the more I think that this actually genuinely has a huge effect on players’ careers, by making it easier or harder for them to stand out in certain time periods.
I’ll use the following players as examples: Jordan, LeBron, Duncan, and Shaq, and analyze things a bit in this regard.
Case Studies
- Michael Jordan
Jordan’s own generation was strong in MVP-level talent. In the draft classes in the years surrounding his draft class, you had Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, Karl Malone, and David Robinson all as genuine MVP-level players (as well as other great players, of course, but those are the true top-tier guys IMO). This is a strong era in that regard. The result of having a bunch of all-time players in your era of drafts is that these guys are basically always around when you are and are generally in their prime at the same time. That makes it harder to be the clear standout of the era, and I think it’s a real testament to Jordan that he was able to be the clear standout regardless.
However, the era after Jordan’s was definitely weak. From the 1988 draft through at least the 1993 draft, you basically had no MVP-level player come into the league, besides Shaq. That weakness probably didn’t matter that much for Jordan in his first stint with the Bulls, since that generation mostly wouldn’t really have been in their prime during that period anyways. But I think it was a major factor in the second-three-peat years. Those were years where the people from Jordan’s era would be expected to be declining (and, indeed, Jordan himself had declined), while the guys in those weak draft classes would be expected to be around their prime. I think the fact that there was basically no one consequential besides Shaq in that later generation helped allow a somewhat-declined Jordan to still be the league’s clear best player.
- LeBron James
LeBron has a bit of a flip-side from Jordan. LeBron’s actual draft-class era was pretty weak. In the lengthy span from the 2000 draft all the way through the 2006 draft (same is true of 1999 but I think that’s a bit far back to go for LeBron’s generation), the only MVP-level talent you had was LeBron, Wade, and arguably Chris Paul and/or Dwight Howard (personally I at least wouldn’t include Dwight). I think this relative dearth of MVP-level talent in his actual generation made it easier for LeBron to stand out in his very peak years, because those are the years where the rest of his generation would be the ones in their prime (while surrounding generations were young or old) but there wasn’t a whole lot of top-tier talent in his generation to compete with (and, of course, he spent a lot of his peak years playing with one of the only MVP-level players of his draft generation).
At the same time, though, I think there’s a good argument that the eras surrounding LeBron’s were strong. In particular, the pretty short span from the 1995 to 1998 draft included Garnett, Kobe, Nash, Dirk, and Duncan. That was a good generation of top-tier players, and the result was that it was a lot harder for LeBron to distinguish himself from the pack in his earlier years (even though I think his actual level as a player in those years was fairly close to his peak years). Towards the very end of the 2000’s, those guys were largely older and declined some, and suddenly LeBron was the clear best (note: I think this partly explains the conundrum of why so many people believe LeBron’s peak year was also the first year of his prime—that doesn’t make a lot of logical sense, but it makes more sense as a premise when we consider that LeBron making marginal improvements was compounded by the other best players in the league declining). Meanwhile, I also think the era after LeBron’s was strong. You had guys like Curry, Durant, Harden, and to a lesser extent Westbrook and Kawhi coming out within a few short years of each other. That was a strong generation, and those guys were getting into their primes in the latter half of LeBron’s prime. LeBron was ultimately still better than those guys in those years (at least in the playoffs), but I think it’s unsurprising that the gap seemed a lot smaller (including, for instance, with impact data generally not having LeBron on top anymore in that latter half-ish of his prime). As for LeBron’s very late years, I personally think the current generation is strong, but I’ll refrain from applying this sort of analysis to this era, since we don’t have full hindsight yet.
- Tim Duncan
I’ve touched on the relevant eras here in the above, so I won’t repeat myself much. As I’ve noted, Duncan’s own draft era was strong. However, the other strong guys of that era (Garnett, Kobe, Nash, Dirk) did take some time to get going for various reasons, and the draft era before Duncan’s basically just had Shaq and that’s it. I think that left Duncan with a solid window for success early in his career—where there wasn’t much top-end talent in their prime in the league but him and Shaq. This left him as a clear top 2 player. Once the rest of his era matured though, Duncan himself naturally fell off a bit in stature in the league, because there was more competition. His team still was incredible and he still won a couple more titles in 2005 and 2007, but he didn’t so much stand out as a top 1-2 player, even though he himself probably hadn’t really declined yet. Then, as mentioned, the next draft era was fairly weak (with LeBron obviously being a big caveat to that), and I do think that that helped Duncan and his Spurs stay relevant and strong into Duncan’s very old years.
- Shaquille O’Neal
Like all of these other guys, Shaq was very good quite young. But in his earliest years, the league had the Jordan-era guys still in their primes, and Shaq couldn’t really stand out despite already being great. But, as discussed, Shaq’s own draft era was *very* weak with MVP-level talent. This allowed Shaq to stand out a ton once that older generation declined and/or were gone. But then the generation after Shaq’s was good, and I think that that contributed to Shaq having a pretty quick decline in stature in the league—with his own individual decline being compounded by the competition at the league’s highest end becoming better.
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Anyways, these are just examples of a few of recent history’s very best players. I think we could apply this sort of thought process to plenty of other players. The general upshot, though, is that I think we can generally track all-time great players’ stature in the league by looking at their age (i.e. where in the general expected career curve they were) and the quality of the top-tier players in the draft era that generally should’ve been peaking at the time. The trajectory of how much these guys did or didn’t stand out from the rest of the league seems to largely fall into place when taking those two factors into account. Of course, this isn’t to say that these players are equal players and this draft-era stuff is the only variable in how much they stood out. For instance, I think we’d virtually all agree that Jordan and LeBron were better than Shaq and Duncan. So this isn’t a thread meant for direct player comparison (so please don’t make it one). It’s more that I think this is a useful insight into the trajectory of great players’ careers.
I’ll use the following players as examples: Jordan, LeBron, Duncan, and Shaq, and analyze things a bit in this regard.
Case Studies
- Michael Jordan
Jordan’s own generation was strong in MVP-level talent. In the draft classes in the years surrounding his draft class, you had Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, Karl Malone, and David Robinson all as genuine MVP-level players (as well as other great players, of course, but those are the true top-tier guys IMO). This is a strong era in that regard. The result of having a bunch of all-time players in your era of drafts is that these guys are basically always around when you are and are generally in their prime at the same time. That makes it harder to be the clear standout of the era, and I think it’s a real testament to Jordan that he was able to be the clear standout regardless.
However, the era after Jordan’s was definitely weak. From the 1988 draft through at least the 1993 draft, you basically had no MVP-level player come into the league, besides Shaq. That weakness probably didn’t matter that much for Jordan in his first stint with the Bulls, since that generation mostly wouldn’t really have been in their prime during that period anyways. But I think it was a major factor in the second-three-peat years. Those were years where the people from Jordan’s era would be expected to be declining (and, indeed, Jordan himself had declined), while the guys in those weak draft classes would be expected to be around their prime. I think the fact that there was basically no one consequential besides Shaq in that later generation helped allow a somewhat-declined Jordan to still be the league’s clear best player.
- LeBron James
LeBron has a bit of a flip-side from Jordan. LeBron’s actual draft-class era was pretty weak. In the lengthy span from the 2000 draft all the way through the 2006 draft (same is true of 1999 but I think that’s a bit far back to go for LeBron’s generation), the only MVP-level talent you had was LeBron, Wade, and arguably Chris Paul and/or Dwight Howard (personally I at least wouldn’t include Dwight). I think this relative dearth of MVP-level talent in his actual generation made it easier for LeBron to stand out in his very peak years, because those are the years where the rest of his generation would be the ones in their prime (while surrounding generations were young or old) but there wasn’t a whole lot of top-tier talent in his generation to compete with (and, of course, he spent a lot of his peak years playing with one of the only MVP-level players of his draft generation).
At the same time, though, I think there’s a good argument that the eras surrounding LeBron’s were strong. In particular, the pretty short span from the 1995 to 1998 draft included Garnett, Kobe, Nash, Dirk, and Duncan. That was a good generation of top-tier players, and the result was that it was a lot harder for LeBron to distinguish himself from the pack in his earlier years (even though I think his actual level as a player in those years was fairly close to his peak years). Towards the very end of the 2000’s, those guys were largely older and declined some, and suddenly LeBron was the clear best (note: I think this partly explains the conundrum of why so many people believe LeBron’s peak year was also the first year of his prime—that doesn’t make a lot of logical sense, but it makes more sense as a premise when we consider that LeBron making marginal improvements was compounded by the other best players in the league declining). Meanwhile, I also think the era after LeBron’s was strong. You had guys like Curry, Durant, Harden, and to a lesser extent Westbrook and Kawhi coming out within a few short years of each other. That was a strong generation, and those guys were getting into their primes in the latter half of LeBron’s prime. LeBron was ultimately still better than those guys in those years (at least in the playoffs), but I think it’s unsurprising that the gap seemed a lot smaller (including, for instance, with impact data generally not having LeBron on top anymore in that latter half-ish of his prime). As for LeBron’s very late years, I personally think the current generation is strong, but I’ll refrain from applying this sort of analysis to this era, since we don’t have full hindsight yet.
- Tim Duncan
I’ve touched on the relevant eras here in the above, so I won’t repeat myself much. As I’ve noted, Duncan’s own draft era was strong. However, the other strong guys of that era (Garnett, Kobe, Nash, Dirk) did take some time to get going for various reasons, and the draft era before Duncan’s basically just had Shaq and that’s it. I think that left Duncan with a solid window for success early in his career—where there wasn’t much top-end talent in their prime in the league but him and Shaq. This left him as a clear top 2 player. Once the rest of his era matured though, Duncan himself naturally fell off a bit in stature in the league, because there was more competition. His team still was incredible and he still won a couple more titles in 2005 and 2007, but he didn’t so much stand out as a top 1-2 player, even though he himself probably hadn’t really declined yet. Then, as mentioned, the next draft era was fairly weak (with LeBron obviously being a big caveat to that), and I do think that that helped Duncan and his Spurs stay relevant and strong into Duncan’s very old years.
- Shaquille O’Neal
Like all of these other guys, Shaq was very good quite young. But in his earliest years, the league had the Jordan-era guys still in their primes, and Shaq couldn’t really stand out despite already being great. But, as discussed, Shaq’s own draft era was *very* weak with MVP-level talent. This allowed Shaq to stand out a ton once that older generation declined and/or were gone. But then the generation after Shaq’s was good, and I think that that contributed to Shaq having a pretty quick decline in stature in the league—with his own individual decline being compounded by the competition at the league’s highest end becoming better.
__________________________
Anyways, these are just examples of a few of recent history’s very best players. I think we could apply this sort of thought process to plenty of other players. The general upshot, though, is that I think we can generally track all-time great players’ stature in the league by looking at their age (i.e. where in the general expected career curve they were) and the quality of the top-tier players in the draft era that generally should’ve been peaking at the time. The trajectory of how much these guys did or didn’t stand out from the rest of the league seems to largely fall into place when taking those two factors into account. Of course, this isn’t to say that these players are equal players and this draft-era stuff is the only variable in how much they stood out. For instance, I think we’d virtually all agree that Jordan and LeBron were better than Shaq and Duncan. So this isn’t a thread meant for direct player comparison (so please don’t make it one). It’s more that I think this is a useful insight into the trajectory of great players’ careers.