Hawks 2023 Rotations and Lineups

[Jamaaliver]

Ranking the 5 Best Lineups In the NBA

#5: Young, Murray, Hunter, Collins, Capela



Possession: 538

Net Rating: Plus-7.5

Accounting for volume, you could make the argument that the Atlanta Hawks' starters have been the most effective lineup in the league. Their 538 total possessions together are more than double the totals of two other groups that will slot ahead of them in the top five, and they're more than 100 possessions clear of anyone else we considered.

Good collective health has been a factor in these guys accumulating so much time together, but there's another reason this particular collection of Hawks has logged so many possessions. Dejounte Murray and Trae Young both ranked among the top five in total time of possession last season, and there were real questions over the summer about how they'd mesh. Right from the outset, it was clear that Atlanta planned to keep these two on the floor with the other starters as much as possible in the hope that more reps would fast-track the chemistry-building process.

So far, so good.

The Hawks' starters have been solid on both ends, scoring at a clip right around the league average while nudging up toward the top third of all lineups in defensive efficiency. Murray, a ball-hawk whose length is contributing to 2.0 steals per game (he led the league at 2.0 last season) and a top-five ranking in total deflections, deserves some credit for Atlanta's defensive success, but a resurgent Clint Capela is owed the lion's share.

The 28-year-old center has looked more active and mobile than he did a season ago, and he's the one who's reducing opponent rim-attempt frequency by a ridiculous 10.6 percentage points when he's on the floor. Capela turning the restricted area into a no-fly zone has made a massive difference for this lineup and the Hawks as a whole.

Even with such a strong early showing, upside still exists here. Young continues to search for his perimeter stroke, and John Collins is struggling to adjust to a reduced role with Murray in the fold and De'Andre Hunter taking on a larger share of the offense.

If Capela and Murray continue wrecking opponents on defense as Atlanta's considerable offensive talent rounds into form, this group could easily wind up atop the rankings in both volume and efficiency by season's end.

Bleacher Report

[Jamaaliver]

For as good as our starters have been, our bench has been terrible.

Only Aaron Holiday has a positive on court net rating among the backups.

[D21]

For as good as our starters have been, our bench has been terrible.

Only Aaron Holiday has a positive on court net rating among the backups.

ATL starters are still 2nd at the Efficiency difference with +11.1 (PHX first at +11.3)
They were 19th last season with -1.3

But ATL bench is now 29th with -8.4 (thanks to DET, it will be hard to be 30th as they are -17.3)
Was 9th at +3 last season

Wouldn't it time for Nate to try to mix starters and bench guys and changed the rotation?
Last year, we also had Bogi on the bench, but go ask Murray to do the same...

[jayu70]

For as good as our starters have been, our bench has been terrible.

Only Aaron Holiday has a positive on court net rating among the backups.

ATL starters are still 2nd at the Efficiency difference with +11.1 (PHX first at +11.3)
They were 19th last season with -1.3

But ATL bench is now 29th with -8.4 (thanks to DET, it will be hard to be 30th as they are -17.3)
Was 9th at +3 last season

Wouldn't it time for Nate to try to mix starters and bench guys and changed the rotation?
Last year, we also had Bogi on the bench, but go ask Murray to do the same...

He has in limited fashion. Instead of JJ/OO....he has switched it up to have JJ/CC and JC/OO...but it's very limited minutes.

[Jamaaliver]

Justin Holiday will be lucky to ever see the court again once the Hawks get Bogdan back.

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[Jamaaliver]

The Hawks May Have Found the Right Balance

Dejounte Murray’s addition has solved many of the problems that plagued Atlanta last season, but has it also made John Collins expendable?



Failure, it turns out, is a better teacher than success. Gutsy comebacks fueled the Hawks’ run to the 2021 Eastern Conference finals, but gave them the false impression that talent alone would carry them again. The next season, rotations were sluggish. Discipline disappeared. Atlanta’s defensive rating fell to 26th. The Hawks started the season 4-9 and eventually lost in five games in the first round of the playoffs.

But now the Hawks are 10-7 in 2022-23, off to their best start in the Young era. Their offense sputtered early, but they’ve also played stiff competition, losing to the red-hot Celtics and and winning two of three against Milwaukee. The Hawks have also played the Pelicans and Jazz, and the Sixers twice. According to Tankathon, they now have the second-easiest remaining schedule in the league.

Sure, the Hawks had an interchangeable set of forwards with versatile skill sets: Kevin Heurter and Bogdan Bogdanovic, 3-point marksmen who can pass the ball across the court like a Frisbee; Reddish and De’Andre Hunter, bulky wings drafted in the 2019 lottery, with varying ability to put the ball on the floor and two-way potential. They could all shoot, handle the ball, make plays, and move laterally on defense to varying degrees, but together they were redundant, wanting the same shots in the same places, while lacking in the rebounding and defense departments. The Warriors didn’t build the NBA’s most successful small-ball apparatus by leaning into shooting and shot creation at the expense of defense. The key was Draymond Green, a 6-foot-6 forward who could rebound like a 7-footer and push the ball ahead like a guard.

This season has been a total reversal of the last one, starting with an offseason that rebalanced a roster tilted toward offense. The Hawks traded Reddish and Heurter, and used the salary of Danilo Gallinari, an aging offense-first forward, along with a controversial boatload of draft picks, to trade for Murray...their logjam of wings has been transformed into one 6-foot-10, multivariate playmaking package. Like Heurter and Bogdanovic (currently sidelined indefinitely with a knee injury), Murray can facilitate. He likes the midrange as much as Reddish, but shoots at a searing 44 percent clip from there. He can post up like Hunter, but with an array of fakes and drives that make him one of the most slippery paint covers and pick-and-roll practitioners in the NBA.

Murray is a star who also does role player things, ranking in the 100th percentile for combo guards in rebounding opponent misses. His 6-10 wingspan helps put his steal rate in the 92nd percentile for combo guards, while offsetting Young’s lack of size. In fairness to Young, he put on 10 pounds this summer, and is now showing heretofore unseen fight and communication in Atlanta’s switch-heavy schemes. With John Collins and Clint Capela healthy, the Hawks’ starting lineup finally has four plus-defenders around Young.

Murray has also helped organize Atlanta’s shot diet. Last season, seven Hawks players had usage rates between 16.9 and 22. Murray’s arrival has created a clearer hierarchy. Everything flows from Young and Murray, two superstar hubs at the guard position, like a Bizarro Eastern Conference version of the Booker-Paul Suns. Like Mikal Bridges, Hunter has been the beneficiary of the Hawks’ perimeter-oriented system, leading the NBA in spot-up attempts and running the occasional pick-and-roll.

There have been tradeoffs: While Murray and Young have an easy symbiosis on defense, on offense they’re like an Orange County wife “married” to her aging oil baron husband, playing “together” in that they exist in the same space—which is a lot more cramped since the roster reshuffle also meant the exit of three of Atlanta’s best shooters. Young’s sub-40-percent shooting clip could be an early-season blip, or it could portend season-long spacing issues. Murray, a career 32.7 percent shooter from 3, is hoisting a career-high 5.5 attempts from 3. The continued development of Griffin, a stand-out rookie, will help their spacing. So could the return of Bogdanovic.

And then there’s the even more curious case of Collins, scoring 13 points per game, his lowest average since his rookie season. To harken back to the Suns metaphor, if Hunter is like Bridges, Collins is like Deandre Ayton, the screening Swiss Army knife whose skill set has been marginalized because of the system.

Hypothetically, Collins’s athleticism and touch should fit neatly around Murray and Young. But a healthy Capela and Onyeka Okongwu’s continued development have pushed Collins farther from the paint. Collins is averaging 2.6 paint touches per game, a career low by far. This is the worst possible time for him to be shooting a career-low 27 percent from 3, coming off a broken finger that still swells up after practice...

In time-honored tradition, Collins remains the subject of trade rumors. The Hawks, according to Shams Charania, have opened up preliminary discussions around Collins. The Jazz and Suns have been reported as suitors.

The argument for both sides to part ways is this: Collins could reap more of his potential if he were on a team that featured him, and conversely, he falls a touch short of fulfilling the role the Hawks have asked him to play. But these wrinkles, alongside Atlanta’s offensive woes, feel solvable. Collins found his range in a loss to the Cavs on Monday, and he’s playing some of the best defense of his career by switching on perimeter players and setting the most effective screens on the roster, according to NBA University.

The partnership between Atlanta and Collins remains symbiotic, with enough signs of potential improvement that you have to wonder why his eventual departure from Atlanta seems imminent, as Marc Stein reported on his Substack on Sunday. Stein also noted that the Hawks nearly dealt him to Sacramento in June, in a package centered on 3-and-D wing and former Warrior Harrison Barnes. Now, Collins is being linked in rumored deals for Cam Johnson, another multifaceted wing who would fit well into Atlanta’s offense.

In an increasingly physical Eastern Conference, it might make sense to keep Collins and search for creative ways to maximize him. Isn’t the point of being versatile, after all, to be flexible?

The Ringer

[jayu70]

Hate this: Collins is averaging 2.6 paint touches per game, a career low by far.
- Especially with his 98% from the free throw line, get him inside.

[Jamaaliver]

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[D21]

Hate this: Collins is averaging 2.6 paint touches per game, a career low by far.
- Especially with his 98% from the free throw line, get him inside.

and they are supposed to want to trade him
even if they don't want, this guy has to get more touches in the paint, it's just unbelievable

[Jamaaliver]

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?r

[CP War Hawks]

The usage among Trae and DJM is just too much rn. Trae needs to adjust a bit but for the most part his high usage has been mostly positive. DJM needs to defer more and dial back the mid rangers. OO and DH have shown to be capable shooters from that range.

[D21]

The usage among Trae and DJM is just too much rn. Trae needs to adjust a bit but for the most part his high usage has been mostly positive. DJM needs to defer more and dial back the mid rangers. OO and DH have shown to be capable shooters from that range.

It makes think about one point that I didn't check enough during games: when Murray is coming from the 3pts line and going to a spot he takes mid-range shot, maybe the other guys are not moving enough around the 3pts line, or cutting to the basket.
I'm not sure at all if it's the case, but for what it's worth, it remind some plays of IND when Nate was the head coach, when a guard was moving from 3pts line to the top of the basket, he had no other choice to take the shot, because none of the 4 other players was moving, they just watched him take the shot.

[Geaux_Hawks]

The usage among Trae and DJM is just too much rn. Trae needs to adjust a bit but for the most part his high usage has been mostly positive. DJM needs to defer more and dial back the mid rangers. OO and DH have shown to be capable shooters from that range.

It makes think about one point that I didn't check enough during games: when Murray is coming from the 3pts line and going to a spot he takes mid-range shot, maybe the other guys are not moving enough around the 3pts line, or cutting to the basket.
I'm not sure at all if it's the case, but for what it's worth, it remind some plays of IND when Nate was the head coach, when a guard was moving from 3pts line to the top of the basket, he had no other choice to take the shot, because none of the 4 other players was moving, they just watched him take the shot.

Well this is exactly what's going on most of the time. Nate's approach is similar to a 4 out, 1-in without the motion, but he's hoping once the mismatch has been attacked, that someone will see it, and react accordingly to it. Problem is, nobody knows when to cut and we end up settling.

This is why guys will look lost and indecisive because no one is reacting to all the bodies collapsing onto the ball handler. Gerald Green use to be a master at this because people sagged on him. Out of nowhere, he'd catch an alley on the weakside. Helped being able to jump out of a gym, but our guys don't even flash on the weak side for backdoor opportunites.

[Jamaaliver]

J Culver playing PF is actually a brilliant adjustment to deal with his lack of shooting. Basically, use him just like Simmons/Draymond.

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[Jamaaliver]

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[Jamaaliver]

With Hunter and Collins out, it might be time to remove Aaron and AJ from the starting 5 and put in Bogdan and Trent Forrest instead.

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[Jamaaliver]

I guarantee that when it comes time to decide his fate, Nate is going to argue injuries derailed this season...not coaching.

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[jayu70]

I guarantee that when it comes time to decide his fate, Nate is going to argue injuries derailed this season...not coaching.

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Even with everyone - there were still issues.

[Jamaaliver]

Didn't Hawks have Jalen Johnson playing Center in the G-League last season?

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[Jamaaliver]

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