ESPN: Teams In the 2010 Hunt

[theanimal23]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime ... -091030-31

Our own extensive consultation with one veteran team capologist returned a list of seven teams that should have at least $10 million in spending money next summer, provided that the revenue dip is indeed closer to 2.5 percent and the $53.6 million cap that would go with it.

A disclaimer is required to make it clear that the math involved in such projections can vary from team to team, especially this many months in advance. Another East exec we spoke to is holding firm in his belief that the 2010-11 salary cap will be closer to the dreaded $50 million range, no matter how many of his colleagues believe otherwise, with a fellow pessimist from West predicting a cap fall to $51-52 million.

"When in doubt," said the East resident, "go bleak."

CHICAGO
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.9 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $9.3 million of cap space

What it means: Sources with knowledge of the Bulls' thinking say Chicago wants to get a decent look at this group before deciding how to attack July 2010. There's also the perennial possibility that Kirk Hinrich gets moved, which could wind up creating more cap space than the Bulls currently envision depending on what they would have to take back in a trade involving Hinrich. Yet this much we know for sure: Chicago naturally believes it's set at the point with Derrick Rose and has one trusty big man for the future in Joakim Noah. Any eight-figure amount of cap room is going to help them keep adding quality to the core, although that is another best-case scenario that assumes restricted free agent Tyrus Thomas will have been traded elsewhere.

NEW JERSEY
$53.6 million salary cap: $24.9 million in cap space
$50 million salary cap: $21.3 million in cap space

NEW YORK
$53.6 million salary cap: $23.4 million in cap space
$50 million salary cap: $19.8 million in cap space

MIAMI
$53.6 million salary cap: $18.5 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $14.9 million of cap space

CHICAGO
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.9 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $9.3 million of cap space

MINNESOTA
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.5 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $8.9 million of cap space

OKLAHOMA CITY
$53.6 million salary cap: $11.8 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $8.2 million of cap space

L.A. CLIPPERS
$53.6 million salary cap: $11.1 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $7.5 million of cap space

[Sever82]

I'm confused, with Miller and Jerome's salary coming off the books, i thought the bulls had more than 12.9 million in cap space? I know you can maybe add in Salmons and possibly Thomas and Hinrich.

[Scott May]

I'm confused, with Miller and Jerome's salary coming off the books, i thought the bulls had more than 12.9 million in cap space? I know you can maybe add in Salmons and possibly Thomas and Hinrich.

Sham'll be along any minute now to sort this all out for us.

[BuffaloBull]

This calculation assumes a Salmons opt-in.

[SephCast]

Yeah, Salmons will probably opt out, which will give us a cool 5.8 million in extra space.

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages ... /bulls.jsp

[gf2020hotmail]

Those numbers seem low, especially if Tyrus or a Tyrus caphold isn't on the books.

[HINrichPolice]

I don't know how anyone can be sure about what Salmons will do. There's reasons for either opting in or out.

I hope he opts out. If I were him, maybe I look at all the teams with cap space and figure that someone will be willing to give me money. Also, who knows what will happen to the cap in the future. If it doesn't grow, then now's as good a time as ever to take advantage.

[kodo]

It would be highly unusual for Salmons not to opt out, he's the remaining highest scorer on a playoff team, and he gets paid less than Chris Duhon. Even if it were not 2010, he'd still easily be able to make more than MLE. I think that's why most people are assuming a Salmons opt out in the salary estimations.

[dougthonus]

It would be highly unusual for Salmons not to opt out, he's the remaining highest scorer on a playoff team, and he gets paid less than Chris Duhon. Even if it were not 2010, he'd still easily be able to make more than MLE. I think that's why most people are assuming a Salmons opt out in the salary estimations.

That would certainly apply if that was this year.

However, next year will depend entirely on what he does this year. I agree that he'll most likely opt out, but if he has a dreadful year he won't.

[Salo23]

Let's say Salmons opts out of his deal, could he still be included in a sign and trade?

If he decides to opt in, is there a waiting period before we could trade his contract?

I feel if we go after Wade we will try to push a sign and trade involving either Hinrich or Salmons.

[Ben]

The move that would make the most sense in the world would be for Lebron to walk and join Miami. Someone joining Wade is the only way that 2 superstars will be united via FA, and they could retain Beasley & Chalmers plus any vet ring-chasers who might want to sign on for a year (maybe Camby, or maybe JON sticks around for the vet min?)

Obviously I hope that that doesn't happen. But if Lebron gets disgruntled playing with scrubs and feels content leaving $20-30 million on the table since he'll be earning hundreds of millions over his career, and if he wants to be in a sunny climate with beautiful women year-round, Miami seems like a logical choice. All other teams would be left scrambling madly just to stay barely competitive.

I would expect mass retirements from older guys who physically could stick it out a year or two longer but who instead look at Dwyane and Lebron and say, "why bother?"

[sdeezy]

The move that would make the most sense in the world would be for Lebron to walk and join Miami. Someone joining Wade is the only way that 2 superstars will be united via FA, and they could retain Beasley & Chalmers plus any vet ring-chasers who might want to sign on for a year (maybe Camby, or maybe JON sticks around for the vet min?)

Obviously I hope that that doesn't happen. But if Lebron gets disgruntled playing with scrubs and feels content leaving $20-30 million on the table since he'll be earning hundreds of millions over his career, and if he wants to be in a sunny climate with beautiful women year-round, Miami seems like a logical choice. All other teams would be left scrambling madly just to stay barely competitive.

I would expect mass retirements from older guys who physically could stick it out a year or two longer but who instead look at Dwyane and Lebron and say, "why bother?"

This. I might cry if it happens. Its a very legit possibility

[Neusch23]

one thing I have noticed is that the major market teams have been able to clear the cap space needed. The lakers are already young, and set, but you still have the clipps there, Chicago, NJ and NY. All big markets especially if new jersey moves to brooklyn. It was like the little guys said, "we don't have a shot, you big kids fight this out"

[boogydown]

Sounds about right. They are not factoring in that Tyrus can come off the books which is around 7M and Salmons which is another 6M. They also are not factoring in opt out for other teams, and also non guaranteed contracts.

Miami is the only team that can sign two max FA's. Teams can take a pay cut and sign for a little less two close to max contracts in New Jersey.

So in essence Chicago has enough to sign one max FA. We cannot S&T Salmons if we waive his rights. We can however wait until I believe the deadline date which is around July 10 to July 17 (someone confirm this), before we waive Salmons and Tyrus rights so that way if we know for sure we aren't getting a better free agent, there will be no reason to waive their rights. At that point, we can either S&T them, or resign those guys along with a player worth around 13 million. That includes say
Rudy Gay, Carlos Boozer etc.

We also will have the MLE to spend after that. So if we fail at 2010 summer free agency with Wade, Bosh, and Lebron as a max FA, then we'll likely be spending around that amount (13 million) for another decent free agent, and sign and trade whomever we need to after that.

You're also right above. Lebron joining Wade in Miami seems like the "easiest" thing to do. However with everything Cleveland has done for Lebron, I am not sure that will happen. With that said, Lebron knows what will happen staying in Cleveland, so meeting up in two locations could happen. Another possibility is all 3 join up in a single team, and the team S&T for the 3rd person. Example Scenario: Miami S&T Lebron, but sends Beasley to Cleveland, and then signs Bosh outright. Could be scary seeing

Chalmers
Wade
Lebron
Bosh
Filler

In a lineup. Miami is setting themselves up nicely, but unless they can attract a major 2010 free agent, they could pay the price losing Wade themselves. The same scenario could be setup for us which is why I have been wanting management to make a move before deadline acquiring a forward (Bosh, Amare, Boozer, Gay etc.) that can be moved for Tyrus, Hinrich, Deng that can come in before the playoffs. If we are able to acquire another player before deadline, it will be much more attractive knowing that anyone who signs in Chicago can easily join an instant contender, and that all we need is one player added to this team. Example Scenerio

Deng + Tyrus for Boozer + Harpring, then we sign Wade or Lebron

New Jersey is setting themselves up nicely as well with a new owner and Jay-Z. They also got lucky with Brook Lopez, Terrance Williams looks nice, and they have Devin Harris. All they need to do is bring Bosh and Lebron in, and they are set. With that said, they are still in New Jersey, and the team will be awful this season. I see this team more or less the odd team out right now.

New York doesn't stand a chance in my opinion. They won't be able to get the 3 major free agents but I could see them overpaying for players like Joe Johnson, Amare etc who will get the max from them.

[Addicted123]

It would be highly unusual for Salmons not to opt out, he's the remaining highest scorer on a playoff team, and he gets paid less than Chris Duhon. Even if it were not 2010, he'd still easily be able to make more than MLE. I think that's why most people are assuming a Salmons opt out in the salary estimations.

Also, if he doesn't opt out, he will be a year older when he enters the free agent market after the 10/11 season. Salmons is already getting up there in age (30 this December), so I'm sure that will hurt his value considerably. Salmons has to be thinking about locking his final multi-year deal that will take him to retirement.

Even if he gets less money in 10/11, there is value in locking up a multi-year deal.

[Addicted123]

The move that would make the most sense in the world would be for Lebron to walk and join Miami. Someone joining Wade is the only way that 2 superstars will be united via FA, and they could retain Beasley & Chalmers plus any vet ring-chasers who might want to sign on for a year (maybe Camby, or maybe JON sticks around for the vet min?)

Obviously I hope that that doesn't happen. But if Lebron gets disgruntled playing with scrubs and feels content leaving $20-30 million on the table since he'll be earning hundreds of millions over his career, and if he wants to be in a sunny climate with beautiful women year-round, Miami seems like a logical choice. All other teams would be left scrambling madly just to stay barely competitive.

I would expect mass retirements from older guys who physically could stick it out a year or two longer but who instead look at Dwyane and Lebron and say, "why bother?"

This. I might cry if it happens. Its a very legit possibility

And, of course, the much discussed "no state taxes" in Florida helps bring the contract $$$s lost to a smaller amount.

If I was Lebron, I would definitely leave Cleveland. It's not like Cleveland has a nucleus of talented young players around him.

[boogydown]

I just see the more likely scenario is one of Bosh and Lebron joins Wade in Miami.

We will then have to either settle on the left over, overpay for another FA, settle on 1 or 2 medicore free agents, wait until 2011, or S&T for someone giving cap relief to the other team.

[The Force.]

Hold up, LeBron, Wade, AND Bosh???

*covers ears*

Lalalallalalalalala!!!!

[Juicy Juice]

Trade Deng and Thomas for Boozer, and keep Hinrich. Attempt to sign wade in 2010. Nothing in the NBA will be able to top a back court rotation of Rose/Wade/Hinrich.

[Ben]

Hold up, LeBron, Wade, AND Bosh???

*covers ears*

Lalalallalalalalala!!!!

No, he just said ONE of Lebron or Bosh. I would add Boozer to the list of Miami possibilities. Miami can't sign two max new FAs. Nobody can. But they have the big advantage of being able to RE-sign Wade and still sign one new max FA, which would give them two elite players.

If Lebron goes there, it's game over for the rest of the league. If Bosh does it'll be plenty bad, although they'll have to rely on Beasley being able to play SF (or just trade him for a promising center). Whatever the case, I give Miami much better odds than us of hitting a 2010 home run. NJ might have a better shot, too.