Our own extensive consultation with one veteran team capologist returned a list of seven teams that should have at least $10 million in spending money next summer, provided that the revenue dip is indeed closer to 2.5 percent and the $53.6 million cap that would go with it.
A disclaimer is required to make it clear that the math involved in such projections can vary from team to team, especially this many months in advance. Another East exec we spoke to is holding firm in his belief that the 2010-11 salary cap will be closer to the dreaded $50 million range, no matter how many of his colleagues believe otherwise, with a fellow pessimist from West predicting a cap fall to $51-52 million.
"When in doubt," said the East resident, "go bleak."
CHICAGO
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.9 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $9.3 million of cap space
What it means: Sources with knowledge of the Bulls' thinking say Chicago wants to get a decent look at this group before deciding how to attack July 2010. There's also the perennial possibility that Kirk Hinrich gets moved, which could wind up creating more cap space than the Bulls currently envision depending on what they would have to take back in a trade involving Hinrich. Yet this much we know for sure: Chicago naturally believes it's set at the point with Derrick Rose and has one trusty big man for the future in Joakim Noah. Any eight-figure amount of cap room is going to help them keep adding quality to the core, although that is another best-case scenario that assumes restricted free agent Tyrus Thomas will have been traded elsewhere.
NEW JERSEY
$53.6 million salary cap: $24.9 million in cap space
$50 million salary cap: $21.3 million in cap space
NEW YORK
$53.6 million salary cap: $23.4 million in cap space
$50 million salary cap: $19.8 million in cap space
MIAMI
$53.6 million salary cap: $18.5 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $14.9 million of cap space
CHICAGO
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.9 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $9.3 million of cap space
MINNESOTA
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.5 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $8.9 million of cap space
OKLAHOMA CITY
$53.6 million salary cap: $11.8 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $8.2 million of cap space
L.A. CLIPPERS
$53.6 million salary cap: $11.1 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $7.5 million of cap space