Official Armchair Coaching thread (Pt 2.)

[doclinkin]

Another reason to think the Wiz might have low turnovers under Flip -- they were among the league leaders in lowest turnover ratio under Eddie. That's been a strength of the team -- especially when Gil was running the show. No reason to think that'll get worse with Flip in charge.

In part though I attributed this stat to Eddie's preference for the dribble hand-off. Early on it seemed he got frustrated with TO's and cut back on passing options, in deference to the idea that he had no Jason Kidd on his squad. Not that there were no passing options in the EJ offense, just that the system de-emphasized passing. Statwise I see solid passing numbers for skilled Bigs and PGs entering Flip's system (okay Rasheed at least, I expect Flip wrote half his book to take advantage of KG's unusual skillset, then found Sheed has some similar tools as yet unexploited). I agree with the read of Flip as both pragmatist and opportunist, he altered his playbook to take full advantage of Sammy and Spree instead of forcing them to entirely alter their games. Still, I expect Flip's squads to pass a tad more than Eddie.

What I'm most interested in is whether Flip adjusts to take full advantage of the Wiz' ability to shift into high gear and run uptempo. He's trended towards a more deliberate pace, even before joining the slow-down Pistons.

[TheSecretWeapon]

If there was a cut back on passing options, I didn't notice it. Assists/FG did go down after that first season (as did turnover ratio). I attributed that to Arenas getting more responsible with the ball, and to Eddie figuring out that Arenas was one helluva offensive player and that he should run stuff through him.

On the tempo issue, I'd anticipate Flip running something akin to the mantra Nate McMillan used in Seattle -- get it early or get it late. Meaning, push the ball in transition to see if there's an easy/high-percentage shot. If not, run a play and get a good shot after patiently working through the options. He'd be a fool not to let Gil push the pace in transition. And I don't recall many accusations that Flip was a fool.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Another reason to think the Wiz might have low turnovers under Flip -- they were among the league leaders in lowest turnover ratio under Eddie. That's been a strength of the team -- especially when Gil was running the show. No reason to think that'll get worse with Flip in charge.

One interesting thing about Flip and his system -- he doesn't exactly "attach" to it dogmatically. When he landed in Detroit, instead of implementing all his own stuff, he kept a lot of the plays that Larry Brown and Rick Carlisle had been running. Stuff his guys knew and were comfortable with. He adapted the plays with his own wrinkles. Did stuff like start a Larry Brown set by opening with a Hawk cut (a basic of Flip's system). Flip's pragmatic -- he likes what works.

I have a really good feeling about Flip's chances of success with this team, TSW.

This team's got scorers, passers, shooters, and size. No go-to guy on the blocks per se, but I've noticed for years that Brendan's an extremely efficient offensive player. Flip being pragmatic and all might find a way to do what EJ never did, get Haywood more touches inside.

[jimij]

From Bullets Forever:

Usually, our defensive scheme left us on islands," Butler said. "You'll be out there, and [someone will say], 'You, on that weak side, you got Kobe [Bryant].' [And I'm like] 'Where the help at?' [and they'd say] 'I mean, you got him.' Now, I know where to push him. I know where my help is coming from."

It's worth noting that this talk is nothing new, not for Butler and not for the team. Save for a brief stretch in 2007/08 under Randy Ayers, the defense hasn't even been mediocre, and Butler has been one of the guys who hasn't performed as well as he could defensively. But Butler is adamant that this year is different for him, which would be great news for Wizards fans.

If this isn't an indictment of EJ's "defensive" coaching philosophy I don't know what is. Interesting read on Caron's plan to commit to playing better defense.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2009/10/2 ... #storyjump

[no D in Hibachi]

Call me jadded, but I refuse to beleive anything the Wizards say about "better defense." Especially from Butler or Jamison who are the biggest culprits in the ole! defense the Wizards have been employing for years. They've been singing this song in the off-season for years.

[LyricalRico]

To me, this is an ever better quote from the same link:

"I talked to him and told him he had the ability to be an all-league defensive player," Saunders said. "He's relied a lot on going to get steals and gambling a little bit, so I told him to be a bit more of a meat and potatoes type of defensive player. He's taking that challenge and has put a lot of effort into that end."

In return (or in addition), Saunders has provided Butler and the rest of the team a defensive system that Butler said is "real simple," as compared to the last few years, when Butler said "there was a lot of confusion."

So Flip wants less gambling for steals (which I would assume applies to Arenas as well) and he's keeping things simple rather than having a gazillion defenses that confuse and disorient like EJ did. I've been saying it all summer - Flip's impact on the defense will be greater than many here are expecting. I'm definitely looking for this team to be in the 15-18 range in team defense AT LEAST.

[go'stags]

Question for those more knowledgeable on Flip's offense than I. With the news that Blatche is looking like he might actually take that next leap [We've heard it before, lets just assume it happens], is there room for Jamison to post up SFs in this offense? I seem to remember Tayshaun getting post ups, but Id like to know for sure. If so, if Blatche is hitting his mid range jumper and with our new shooting in the backcourt, it seems we could kill team with Jamison posting up small forwards.

Also, something occurred to me in thinking about Doc's descriptions of the offense. He talked about having a PF to make the right pass, with skill, and also about our 2's and 3's running off a lot of screens. Doc mentioned Jamison is a better fit at running off those screens and getting a shot off quick rather than being the high post passer.Well, we have plenty of size at the perimieter positions who can also pass and set screens in Mike Miller and Dom.

Could we see something along the lines of Jamison playing PF on defense, but McGuire in the KG/Sheed role on offense? I imagine it would be an extremely difficult cover for most PFs to have to chase Antawn around screens. But it would be made possible with the size/passing comination that Dom and MM possess. The opponent bigs would get tired from doing that, softening them up for foul trouble and later in the game. It might also take them out of rebounding position, allowing Dom or MM, both good rebounders, to capitalize [along with Wood].

Thoughts?

[doclinkin]

Question for those more knowledgeable on Flip's offense than I. With the news that Blatche is looking like he might actually take that next leap [We've heard it before, lets just assume it happens], is there room for Jamison to post up SFs in this offense? I seem to remember Tayshaun getting post ups, but Id like to know for sure. If so, if Blatche is hitting his mid range jumper and with our new shooting in the backcourt, it seems we could kill team with Jamison posting up small forwards.

If there's room for Sam Cassell to post up, then there's room for Twan. Flip adjusts and uses whatever works, which is one reason why his playbook is so huge. He started building the arsenal with his days as a CBA coach when he could never count on his roster staying intact, he just adds new wrinkles for whatever staff he has.

[XsamhainX_999]

Question for those more knowledgeable on Flip's offense than I. With the news that Blatche is looking like he might actually take that next leap [We've heard it before, lets just assume it happens], is there room for Jamison to post up SFs in this offense? I seem to remember Tayshaun getting post ups, but Id like to know for sure. If so, if Blatche is hitting his mid range jumper and with our new shooting in the backcourt, it seems we could kill team with Jamison posting up small forwards.

If there's room for Sam Cassell to post up, then there's room for Twan. Flip adjusts and uses whatever works, which is one reason why his playbook is so huge. He started building the arsenal with his days as a CBA coach when he could never count on his roster staying intact, he just adds new wrinkles for whatever staff he has.

That's alotta wrinkles.

[hands11]

Flip says he'll tend towards a 9-10 player rotation. If I'm guessing:

PG: Gil...Foye...Critt
SG: Miller...Nick...Foye
SF: Caron...Miller...Jamison
PF: Jamison...Dray...McGee
C: Haywood...Dray...McGee

That's ten.

Flip says the 4/5 positions are interchangeable in his sets, likes to go big, thus McGee at PF, not Dom. Dunno. I'd love to find minutes for Dom, the team has more shooters than 'glue'-players now. Dom is an ideal fit for Flip's zone though. Opponents aren't sure how to interpret him defensively.

I'm iffy about whether Nick really can earn a role in the offense, unless he picks up a few simple plays he can run again and again. Miller's passing would help mitigate Nick's lack, but that only works when he subs for Caron at SF, with Gil at Point I suppose. And if Nick is slow to recognize the opponent's attack, he may prove a zone liability. Brendan will have to be on court and in his ear. Suggests a bench Nick line of:

Gil
Nick
Miller/Dom
Blatche/McGee
Haywood

Not bad. Caron and Jamison rest. Paint is shaded by large bigs. Either of MM2 or DMcG rebound the middle-ground. If Blatche is actually hitting his jumpers or McGee isn't lost on defense then you have intriguing options on offense/defense. And rebounders who can snag the long bounces produced by outside gunners.

McGee at PF. Inconceivable. LOL

Hard to argue about those rotations but I have heard good things about Nick playing Rip like. I love with Flip is doing with these guys mentally. Great that they will go into training camp all fighting for the 2 spot. Miller is saying he doesn't care if he starts. Great attitude. Flip is telling McGee to bring the energy and be like Birdman. Told him being physical isn't as big an issue as bring energy. Great message for the young kid who loves to block shots. Nice to have someone that tall and athletic closing out shot all the way to the 3 line. Much better defensive line up then having AJ at PF. But Flips D scheme will help PF since you don't have to chase as far to defend and there is help everywhere. CB talking about being a complete player which includes defense.

I really love this team and this organization the way it is put together right now. I fully expect them to kick rss this year. They may be one piece away from being a top team in the NBA or not. I expect our reserve pieces to step it up. Nick is going to look a ton better this year.

Gil was basically slamming the EJ offense for reasons some of us complained about. It was just to complicated for such a young team. Now they can go play ball. Blatche is going to look more consistent under Flip.

We just have to move James and his contract for a more viable piece. EG has made a ton of good moves. Now everyone can see what he has been building. We just needed a proper captain to get these guys headed in the right direction. Can't wait to see Flip run circles around EJ when we play Phili.

We are now going to be that team that solid vets want to join to make a championship run before their careers end. NBA players will see how great a team and organization this has become under EG and Flip. Berto was just the start of what we will be able to get.

Sign below is you were an EG basher. May as well get signed on early.

[hands11]

saw that too and had the same thought, doc. The question is can Jamison play that 2/3 role in this offense that would allow them to get another big on the floor. We'll have the ability to be big on the perimeter, if not ultraquick. That said, Foye/Deshawn strikes me as quite the bulldoggish backup guard tandem that could bring some great energy/D when the team needs a lift.

Sure he can. I expect to see every line up I have dreamed of over the years.


AJ will play SF/SG some times
CB will be playing SF/SG
McGee will get minutes at PF with with either Haywood or Berto behind him. Probably not Blatche.
Blatche will get some PF/SF. I can't wait to see some.

Haywood, McGee, Blatche, Miller, Gilbert
or
Haywood, McGee, CB, AJ, Gil

The combination are endless

Haywood, McGee, CB, Miller, Gil

This is going to be so much fun to watch.

[hands11]

Well, one could also look at that quote about 2 SGs or SFs and see hope for D-Mac. At least I do, but I might be his biggest fan on the board. But Flip mentioned a lock down defender a few times, and I think D-Mac has the best potential to be that. Especially with the PG handling almost all the ball handling duties. I also have a hunch EG really likes D-Mac. Just a feeling tho, and it seems their moves go against that notion. Dunno, guess we"ll see. But Im hoping for D-Mac to get minutes, somehow. If not now, then down the road.

I like DMAC a lot but I think he is going to get buried by this talent. He won't play every game. But this gives him a chance to get better and keep developing his game. To start the season he will be used primarily for D. We have him for SF and SG and Critter for PGs. Both will develop well this year. We are DEEEEEP.

I think McGee will get a chance before to long and he will fill in nicely as a PF blocking machines with Haywood or Berto behind him. Blatche will be the primary back up at PF though. Blatche is the one who has the most room to grow as he will need to show a consistent game at PF. I think we will see less of him at Center this year.

[no D in Hibachi]

Call me crazy, but I don't like the idea of Blatche as a SF. He's proven time and time again that he neither has the handles nor a consistent enough shot to be a 3. He's a massive liability at the 3 both offensively and defensively because he turns the ball over any time he dribbles more than 1-2 seconds and he doesn't have the foot speed to keep up with most 3's so he tries to cheat by reaching, which causes him to rack up fouls. He's so much more effective as a 4, why not keep it that way? No sense for him to mess with being a 3 when the team already has Butler, Miller, DMac, and at times Jamison to take those minutes. He's more of a liability for the Wiz than a mismatch for the opponents at the 3.

[doclinkin]

Flip says he'll tend towards a 9-10 player rotation. If I'm guessing:

PG: Gil...Foye...Critt
SG: Miller...Nick...Foye
SF: Caron...Miller...Jamison
PF: Jamison...Dray...McGee
C: Haywood...Dray...McGee

Hard to argue about those rotations but I have heard good things about Nick playing Rip like.

To be clear that guess was as of July. And Flip has been talking a 8-9 player rotation. After training camp, and projecting past the preseason, I'd say it will shake out with a core like so:

PG: Gil ... Foye
SG: Miller ... DSteve
SF: Caron ... Jamison
PF: Jamison ... Blatche
C: Haywood ... Oberto

With a few situational players showing up night to night on a situational basis or as 10 minute per game filler:

PG: James
SG: Nick
SF: Dom
PF: --
C: --

That's the active roster for the early part of the year. Putting McGee and the wounded JCritt on the outside from the outset.

[hands11]

Flip says he'll tend towards a 9-10 player rotation. If I'm guessing:

PG: Gil...Foye...Critt
SG: Miller...Nick...Foye
SF: Caron...Miller...Jamison
PF: Jamison...Dray...McGee
C: Haywood...Dray...McGee

Hard to argue about those rotations but I have heard good things about Nick playing Rip like.

To be clear that guess was as of July. And Flip has been talking a 8-9 player rotation. After training camp, and projecting past the preseason, I'd say it will shake out with a core like so:

PG: Gil ... Foye
SG: Miller ... DSteve
SF: Caron ... Jamison
PF: Jamison ... Blatche
C: Haywood ... Oberto

With a few situational players showing up night to night on a situational basis or as 10 minute per game filler:

PG: James
SG: Nick
SF: Dom
PF: --
C: --

That's the active roster for the early part of the year. Putting McGee and the wounded JCritt on the outside from the outset.

http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2009/1 ... index.html

I just keep hearing more of what I like.

Talking about AJ and whatever position he plays Sounds like AJ is going to see more SF. And if needed in spot duty I think we will see him all the way out to SG if needed as a spot up 3 shooter. This would be based on injury. If everyone is healthy and you need your best 3 point shooters out there, then what is the line up ? Well have to see how good Nick had gotten.

Gil, Miller, AJ, Nick?

I also like how he is talking 10 players. 8-9 he says is the core but 10 players a game with with the 10th getting about 10mins and no players going more then low 30s for minutes. Music to our ears. No more GA, AJ, CB for 45 minutes. Flip wants his horses fresh for the post season.

I wouldn't count Nick out of anything. He could end up starting.

PG: Gil ... Foye
SG: Nick...DS
SF: Caron ...Miller..DMAC
PF: Jamison ... Blatche ... McGee
C: Haywood ... Oberto

That's 12 players.

That leaves Crit, James.. Thats 14 with one spot open. We could use one more big body for the 15 inactive player. Someone who can play center.

With Foye, NY, DS, Miller, and CB all able to play the SG there is really no reason to have James active. The safest place for NY to blossom is probably right next to Gil. Gil will both keep him in line and cheer him on.

I would expect Miller to get his minutes between SF and SG so DS falls behind that. DS is there if we need to up the D. DMAC is around for the same reason. I'd probably go with

Foye
Miller
DMAC
Blatche
Roberto

I'd put Gil, CB, AJ and Haywood down for 30-34 minutes. NY, Foye, Miller, Blatche, and Berto getting the next tier of consistent minutes, then DS, McGee and DMAC.

But who really knows. We'll have to see how things work out.

[hands11]

GA 6-3
MM 6-9
AJ 6-9
AB 6-11
BH 7-10

http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2009/1 ... index.html

Flip talking D with this line up of bigs.

60 % of practice is defense.

You almost wonder if Flip and EJ ever touched each other if the world would explode.

[doclinkin]

I'm not counting Nick out. But his talents (super-efficient scoring when he's on) are approximated elsewhere by more versatile players.

Mike Miller adds passing and rebounding as well as the long range shot. Randy Foye attacks the lane and is a Gil mimic on offense. And it seems instructive to me that when Flip's talking about how to defensively manage Iverson coming off the bench he thinks about DeSteve. He said they've even run Stevenson as the PG over the last couple days.

History suggests, when given a choice in general Flip prefers a veteran -- they pick up the terminology quickly and make adjustments on the fly, etc. Nick is improving quickly, and his length and athletics will prove a solid defensive asset ultimately, but coming out the gate I imagine that he'll be in the mix as a back-up, battling Stevenson for time. Who would you rather guard LeBron on a switch?

That said depending on the match-up and depending on who is playing well I suspect that back-up 2-guard position will still see a ton of flex. It will be tough to keep Nick off the floor when he's shooting nice, if we can afford to make do with somewhat less experienced defense, then he'll play and straight torture opponents. It's real nice to see how much he has advanced and I wouldn't be surprised to see him as the primary back-up at 2 pretty quick -- if not starting.

[fishercob]

Not sure if this was posted, but I thought some would find it interesting: http://www.bulletsforever.com/2009/9/25 ... with-video

[doclinkin]

Saunders said he has been pleased with his team's defensive performance thus far, especially the play of his first unit. The Wizards have focused on field goal percentage defense and three-point percentage defense, and through the first three games, opponents have shot just 42.2 percent from the floor and 22.4 percent from beyond the three-point line. The Wizards have allowed teams to average 105 points, which Saunders blamed on his players putting opponents on the foul line with regularity. Opponents are making 78.5 percent of their free thows.

"We've fouled a lot and we're getting killed at the free throw line," Saunders said. "That's because we're trying to be aggressive. That's something I don't want to change now. We have to continue that aggressiveness, because that will pay off in the long run."

Post Mike.

[nate33]

Saunders said he has been pleased with his team's defensive performance thus far, especially the play of his first unit. The Wizards have focused on field goal percentage defense and three-point percentage defense, and through the first three games, opponents have shot just 42.2 percent from the floor and 22.4 percent from beyond the three-point line. The Wizards have allowed teams to average 105 points, which Saunders blamed on his players putting opponents on the foul line with regularity. Opponents are making 78.5 percent of their free thows.

"We've fouled a lot and we're getting killed at the free throw line," Saunders said. "That's because we're trying to be aggressive. That's something I don't want to change now. We have to continue that aggressiveness, because that will pay off in the long run."

Post Mike.

Hmmm. I hadn't realized that our FG% defense was so good. I can live with the extra fouls if it means lower FG%. It's a strategy used by Scott Skiles and Jerry Sloan. Basically, you handcheck and commit blocking fouls so often that the refs gets accustomed to it. Eventually, they end up swallowing the whistle in the 2nd half. Our depth helps us endure foul trouble so it's a strategy that could make sense.

The issue Flip didn't address in the quote is rebounding. We are getting killed on the defensive glass. If we can maintain the same defensive intensity and opponent FG%, and also pick up the rebounding so that we're an average defensive rebounding team, we'll be in great shape. Right now, our preseason rebounding percentage is just .470. We rank 27th out of 30 teams.