Official Armchair Coaching thread (Pt 2.)

[doclinkin]

Mike Jones:

Here:

Flip said he expects shooting guard to be a battle, but said he's looking for the starter to be multi-dimensional, a strong perimeter defender and able to knock down open shots while opposing teams are focused on Arenas, Jamison and Butler.

And here:

Saunders said of the players he's been able to observe, Nick Young has to have had the strongest summer as far as development and growth. Part of that, Saunders said, has to do with the fact that Nick has spent much of the summer training in D.C. and Flip has been able to monitor his progress more. He said in addition to trying to learn how to come off screens better and play more like Rip Hamilton did for Saunders in Detroit, Nick has been working on improving his defensive abilities, which will be key for him in earning minutes in a crowded backcourt.

Flip also said that Nick has been studying film of Hamilton and also Reggie Miller in attempt to improve his techniques and gain a better understanding of how he will be used in this system.

Saunders also said that Andray Blatche has worked hard this summer, and that Javaris Crittenton has as well, but has been slowed by a few small injuries which have set his progress back some. He said JaVale McGee will be brought along slowly because he's the most inexperienced. Saunders expect to give the second-year center a few responsibilities and things to work on, and see how he responds and get a feel on whether to scale back or ramp up his development. So, I'd expect Oberto to be No. 2 off the bench at center early on.

On how he'll decide the starting shooting guard spot, Flip joked, "We're going to do reality TV and let people vote them off." He went on to say that he expects the candidates -- DeShawn Stevenson, Mike Miller, Young and Randy Foye -- to determine that by their play during training camp. Saunders added, "You know, my '2's' 3's are very interchangeable, so you could see two shooting guards out there or two small forwards out there. We're going to play the players that play the best together."

Saunders also said he expects the rotation, which he as is no secret envisions to be around eight to nine players, to work itself out. There will be times that the rotation expands to 10 or 11 players because the Wizards have such a diverse roster, but for the most part, he expects to stick to the more limited rotation because it's hard to develop much of a rhythm when so many players are shuttling in and out.

DeShawn may have a shot. Mike Miller looks good too with the idea that the SG/SF is interchangeable. Again Caron may end up being that lead keystone defender in the HPTFZone deally. Since balhandling is de-emphasized for the 2-guard we may see Caron pulling minutes essentially at that sf/sg spot, with the nice catch & shoot/skip-passing player Mike Miller at the other wing:

Gil 6'4"
Caron 6'7"-ish (technically shorter, but with the wingspan of a much taller player)
Miller 6'8"
Antawn 6'8"
Wood 7 foot.

Would be a big line if Tawn were, uh, biggerrer. I still can't see how 'Tawn really works at the 4 in Flip's system. But there's no doubt that line can score, pass, hit quick shots when open, make smart decisions on offense.

[fishercob]

saw that too and had the same thought, doc. The question is can Jamison play that 2/3 role in this offense that would allow them to get another big on the floor. We'll have the ability to be big on the perimeter, if not ultraquick. That said, Foye/Deshawn strikes me as quite the bulldoggish backup guard tandem that could bring some great energy/D when the team needs a lift.

[montestewart]

Gil 6'4"
Caron 6'7"-ish (technically shorter, but with the wingspan of a much taller player)
Miller 6'8"
Antawn 6'8"
Wood 7 foot.

Would be a big line if Tawn were, uh, biggerrer.

I've always seen Jamison listed at 6'9". Gilbert, Darius, and Etan started at 6'3", 6'8" and 6'9", then they all added an inch. Did Jamison lose one?

[go'stags]

Well, one could also look at that quote about 2 SGs or SFs and see hope for D-Mac. At least I do, but I might be his biggest fan on the board. But Flip mentioned a lock down defender a few times, and I think D-Mac has the best potential to be that. Especially with the PG handling almost all the ball handling duties. I also have a hunch EG really likes D-Mac. Just a feeling tho, and it seems their moves go against that notion. Dunno, guess we"ll see. But Im hoping for D-Mac to get minutes, somehow. If not now, then down the road.

[no D in Hibachi]

But Flip mentioned a lock down defender a few times, and I think D-Mac has the best potential to be that.

Everytime he mentioned defenders he emphasized how he wants them to have the ability to shoot. I think that was almost a direct jab at Dom. Don't get me wrong, I like DMac and think his versatility can benefit the team, but he's Michael Ruffin bad on offense. He was part of the problem last season inspite of his energy and effort. He has to work a lot on his game to be part of the solution.

[doclinkin]

Gil 6'4"
Caron 6'7"-ish (technically shorter, but with the wingspan of a much taller player)
Miller 6'8"
Antawn 6'8"
Wood 7 foot.

Would be a big line if Tawn were, uh, biggerrer.

I've always seen Jamison listed at 6'9". Gilbert, Darius, and Etan started at 6'3", 6'8" and 6'9", then they all added an inch. Did Jamison lose one?

Draftexpress has Jamison's barefoot measurement at 6'7.75". So that's 6'9" in shoes I suppose. But to put it in context, that's the same height as Jeff Green, Big Baby Davis and Luke Walton. Undertall for a power forward. Carlos Boozer, David Lee, Carl Landry, Udonis Haslem share the height, it's not a critical limiter, but it's more disadvantage than not. Kurt Thomas is an example of a player at the same height who has been a solid defensive match-up for most of his career, though on offense he needed to develop that jumper since he was often stuffed in the post.

On defense, Flip likes length, muscle, intimidation and ground-covering athleticism in the frontcourt. On offense: solid picks and one-touch passing from the middleman. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts his scheme to take advantage of what Jamison brings. But the point is, if you're going big in a zone scheme (even occasionally) you need to go big all the way, otherwise you're merely slow outside and not intimidating in the middle. Players blow-by and get to the rack with a tack-on foul, instead of blow-by but pull up for a jumper inside the three.

[nate33]

Lots of good news on Nick Young. I really like the talk of his defense. If the kid can learn to maximize his ridiculous length on D, he could be a real stopper. He might be a guy we could use at the point of attack. He has the footspeed to stay with most point guards and his length could really disrupt entry passes. We could use him like San Antonio used Bowen on Nash and Chicago used Pippen on Stockton.

[dobrojim]

remember who predicted back early in the offseason that N1 would
be the starter this year.

[doclinkin]

I bumped into an interesting stat the other day, noticing that 100% of Jamison's 3pt makes were assisted last year. (Checking back through his stats generally 80% all of his successful Wizards jumpers were off the catch and shoot).

Had me reflecting on the point that the Wizards have been pretty poor in 3pt shooting without Gilbert, and generally poor in terms of assist totals and rates. Okay, nice that we've added three point shooting in Randy Foye (who can get his shot off on his own) and Mike Miller (who has shown silly range on his long bomb skill) but it had me wondering what effect if any Flip's system might have either on our three point efficiency in particular, or assists in general.

Scoping back through Flip's tenure, I see no real correlation between his teams systems and their three point skill. When he has generally good shooters they do well, but poor shooters aren't especially accurate or whatever under the sets. About what I expected, he won't try to force players to fit his system but will find their strengths. Player's true shooting percentages don't vary all that much entering or leaving his system.

What does stand out though is that assist rate. Aside from his first couple years in the league (where presumably Flip was adjusting to the league and developing that playbook) Flip's squads have been top 5 in assists per possession. Assist totals may not look stunning since Flips squads have generally played with a deliberate pace (not always, in '99 he was 5th fastest pace in the league; in 01-03 he was middling fast). But in general it takes a while to run the screens and all to get an open shot. Regardless of whether the three point shot is relied on heavily or not, Flip's teams tend to rank fairly highly in the ratio of points per possession (five top 5 rankings in this ratio, nine top 10 ranks), though that may be a product of the players he's had (except that his teams tend to dip in this ranking after he leaves).

Here's the most remarkable number though, since 1998 Flip's squads have never failed to rank in the top 3 in the ratio of assists to turnovers. That's four #1 rankings, five #2 rankings, and two #3 rankings. That is most certainly a relic of his system. And for Wiz fans who have occasionally gotten frustrated with stagnant ball motion leading to turnovers, this should be a refreshing switch.

Okay so we won't run quite so helter skelter, maybe more deliberate and less hellforleather, and I expect it may take a year or two to fully shake out as players become accustomed to the changes-- but tell you what, when this team starts really crackling it should be pretty nice to watch the ball popping around from player to player with a high likelihood that when that ball goes up we'll see nothin' but 'quality shots'. Watch that ball skip, skip, skip-- shoot: swish.

And with potential shooters at every perimeter spot, it should be maddening trying to chase and cover everybody.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Another reason to think the Wiz might have low turnovers under Flip -- they were among the league leaders in lowest turnover ratio under Eddie. That's been a strength of the team -- especially when Gil was running the show. No reason to think that'll get worse with Flip in charge.

One interesting thing about Flip and his system -- he doesn't exactly "attach" to it dogmatically. When he landed in Detroit, instead of implementing all his own stuff, he kept a lot of the plays that Larry Brown and Rick Carlisle had been running. Stuff his guys knew and were comfortable with. He adapted the plays with his own wrinkles. Did stuff like start a Larry Brown set by opening with a Hawk cut (a basic of Flip's system). Flip's pragmatic -- he likes what works.

[doclinkin]

Another reason to think the Wiz might have low turnovers under Flip -- they were among the league leaders in lowest turnover ratio under Eddie. That's been a strength of the team -- especially when Gil was running the show. No reason to think that'll get worse with Flip in charge.

In part though I attributed this stat to Eddie's preference for the dribble hand-off. Early on it seemed he got frustrated with TO's and cut back on passing options, in deference to the idea that he had no Jason Kidd on his squad. Not that there were no passing options in the EJ offense, just that the system de-emphasized passing. Statwise I see solid passing numbers for skilled Bigs and PGs entering Flip's system (okay Rasheed at least, I expect Flip wrote half his book to take advantage of KG's unusual skillset, then found Sheed has some similar tools as yet unexploited). I agree with the read of Flip as both pragmatist and opportunist, he altered his playbook to take full advantage of Sammy and Spree instead of forcing them to entirely alter their games. Still, I expect Flip's squads to pass a tad more than Eddie.

What I'm most interested in is whether Flip adjusts to take full advantage of the Wiz' ability to shift into high gear and run uptempo. He's trended towards a more deliberate pace, even before joining the slow-down Pistons.

[TheSecretWeapon]

If there was a cut back on passing options, I didn't notice it. Assists/FG did go down after that first season (as did turnover ratio). I attributed that to Arenas getting more responsible with the ball, and to Eddie figuring out that Arenas was one helluva offensive player and that he should run stuff through him.

On the tempo issue, I'd anticipate Flip running something akin to the mantra Nate McMillan used in Seattle -- get it early or get it late. Meaning, push the ball in transition to see if there's an easy/high-percentage shot. If not, run a play and get a good shot after patiently working through the options. He'd be a fool not to let Gil push the pace in transition. And I don't recall many accusations that Flip was a fool.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Another reason to think the Wiz might have low turnovers under Flip -- they were among the league leaders in lowest turnover ratio under Eddie. That's been a strength of the team -- especially when Gil was running the show. No reason to think that'll get worse with Flip in charge.

One interesting thing about Flip and his system -- he doesn't exactly "attach" to it dogmatically. When he landed in Detroit, instead of implementing all his own stuff, he kept a lot of the plays that Larry Brown and Rick Carlisle had been running. Stuff his guys knew and were comfortable with. He adapted the plays with his own wrinkles. Did stuff like start a Larry Brown set by opening with a Hawk cut (a basic of Flip's system). Flip's pragmatic -- he likes what works.

I have a really good feeling about Flip's chances of success with this team, TSW.

This team's got scorers, passers, shooters, and size. No go-to guy on the blocks per se, but I've noticed for years that Brendan's an extremely efficient offensive player. Flip being pragmatic and all might find a way to do what EJ never did, get Haywood more touches inside.

[jimij]

From Bullets Forever:

Usually, our defensive scheme left us on islands," Butler said. "You'll be out there, and [someone will say], 'You, on that weak side, you got Kobe [Bryant].' [And I'm like] 'Where the help at?' [and they'd say] 'I mean, you got him.' Now, I know where to push him. I know where my help is coming from."

It's worth noting that this talk is nothing new, not for Butler and not for the team. Save for a brief stretch in 2007/08 under Randy Ayers, the defense hasn't even been mediocre, and Butler has been one of the guys who hasn't performed as well as he could defensively. But Butler is adamant that this year is different for him, which would be great news for Wizards fans.

If this isn't an indictment of EJ's "defensive" coaching philosophy I don't know what is. Interesting read on Caron's plan to commit to playing better defense.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2009/10/2 ... #storyjump

[no D in Hibachi]

Call me jadded, but I refuse to beleive anything the Wizards say about "better defense." Especially from Butler or Jamison who are the biggest culprits in the ole! defense the Wizards have been employing for years. They've been singing this song in the off-season for years.

[LyricalRico]

To me, this is an ever better quote from the same link:

"I talked to him and told him he had the ability to be an all-league defensive player," Saunders said. "He's relied a lot on going to get steals and gambling a little bit, so I told him to be a bit more of a meat and potatoes type of defensive player. He's taking that challenge and has put a lot of effort into that end."

In return (or in addition), Saunders has provided Butler and the rest of the team a defensive system that Butler said is "real simple," as compared to the last few years, when Butler said "there was a lot of confusion."

So Flip wants less gambling for steals (which I would assume applies to Arenas as well) and he's keeping things simple rather than having a gazillion defenses that confuse and disorient like EJ did. I've been saying it all summer - Flip's impact on the defense will be greater than many here are expecting. I'm definitely looking for this team to be in the 15-18 range in team defense AT LEAST.

[go'stags]

Question for those more knowledgeable on Flip's offense than I. With the news that Blatche is looking like he might actually take that next leap [We've heard it before, lets just assume it happens], is there room for Jamison to post up SFs in this offense? I seem to remember Tayshaun getting post ups, but Id like to know for sure. If so, if Blatche is hitting his mid range jumper and with our new shooting in the backcourt, it seems we could kill team with Jamison posting up small forwards.

Also, something occurred to me in thinking about Doc's descriptions of the offense. He talked about having a PF to make the right pass, with skill, and also about our 2's and 3's running off a lot of screens. Doc mentioned Jamison is a better fit at running off those screens and getting a shot off quick rather than being the high post passer.Well, we have plenty of size at the perimieter positions who can also pass and set screens in Mike Miller and Dom.

Could we see something along the lines of Jamison playing PF on defense, but McGuire in the KG/Sheed role on offense? I imagine it would be an extremely difficult cover for most PFs to have to chase Antawn around screens. But it would be made possible with the size/passing comination that Dom and MM possess. The opponent bigs would get tired from doing that, softening them up for foul trouble and later in the game. It might also take them out of rebounding position, allowing Dom or MM, both good rebounders, to capitalize [along with Wood].

Thoughts?

[doclinkin]

Question for those more knowledgeable on Flip's offense than I. With the news that Blatche is looking like he might actually take that next leap [We've heard it before, lets just assume it happens], is there room for Jamison to post up SFs in this offense? I seem to remember Tayshaun getting post ups, but Id like to know for sure. If so, if Blatche is hitting his mid range jumper and with our new shooting in the backcourt, it seems we could kill team with Jamison posting up small forwards.

If there's room for Sam Cassell to post up, then there's room for Twan. Flip adjusts and uses whatever works, which is one reason why his playbook is so huge. He started building the arsenal with his days as a CBA coach when he could never count on his roster staying intact, he just adds new wrinkles for whatever staff he has.

[XsamhainX_999]

Question for those more knowledgeable on Flip's offense than I. With the news that Blatche is looking like he might actually take that next leap [We've heard it before, lets just assume it happens], is there room for Jamison to post up SFs in this offense? I seem to remember Tayshaun getting post ups, but Id like to know for sure. If so, if Blatche is hitting his mid range jumper and with our new shooting in the backcourt, it seems we could kill team with Jamison posting up small forwards.

If there's room for Sam Cassell to post up, then there's room for Twan. Flip adjusts and uses whatever works, which is one reason why his playbook is so huge. He started building the arsenal with his days as a CBA coach when he could never count on his roster staying intact, he just adds new wrinkles for whatever staff he has.

That's alotta wrinkles.

[hands11]

Flip says he'll tend towards a 9-10 player rotation. If I'm guessing:

PG: Gil...Foye...Critt
SG: Miller...Nick...Foye
SF: Caron...Miller...Jamison
PF: Jamison...Dray...McGee
C: Haywood...Dray...McGee

That's ten.

Flip says the 4/5 positions are interchangeable in his sets, likes to go big, thus McGee at PF, not Dom. Dunno. I'd love to find minutes for Dom, the team has more shooters than 'glue'-players now. Dom is an ideal fit for Flip's zone though. Opponents aren't sure how to interpret him defensively.

I'm iffy about whether Nick really can earn a role in the offense, unless he picks up a few simple plays he can run again and again. Miller's passing would help mitigate Nick's lack, but that only works when he subs for Caron at SF, with Gil at Point I suppose. And if Nick is slow to recognize the opponent's attack, he may prove a zone liability. Brendan will have to be on court and in his ear. Suggests a bench Nick line of:

Gil
Nick
Miller/Dom
Blatche/McGee
Haywood

Not bad. Caron and Jamison rest. Paint is shaded by large bigs. Either of MM2 or DMcG rebound the middle-ground. If Blatche is actually hitting his jumpers or McGee isn't lost on defense then you have intriguing options on offense/defense. And rebounders who can snag the long bounces produced by outside gunners.

McGee at PF. Inconceivable. LOL

Hard to argue about those rotations but I have heard good things about Nick playing Rip like. I love with Flip is doing with these guys mentally. Great that they will go into training camp all fighting for the 2 spot. Miller is saying he doesn't care if he starts. Great attitude. Flip is telling McGee to bring the energy and be like Birdman. Told him being physical isn't as big an issue as bring energy. Great message for the young kid who loves to block shots. Nice to have someone that tall and athletic closing out shot all the way to the 3 line. Much better defensive line up then having AJ at PF. But Flips D scheme will help PF since you don't have to chase as far to defend and there is help everywhere. CB talking about being a complete player which includes defense.

I really love this team and this organization the way it is put together right now. I fully expect them to kick rss this year. They may be one piece away from being a top team in the NBA or not. I expect our reserve pieces to step it up. Nick is going to look a ton better this year.

Gil was basically slamming the EJ offense for reasons some of us complained about. It was just to complicated for such a young team. Now they can go play ball. Blatche is going to look more consistent under Flip.

We just have to move James and his contract for a more viable piece. EG has made a ton of good moves. Now everyone can see what he has been building. We just needed a proper captain to get these guys headed in the right direction. Can't wait to see Flip run circles around EJ when we play Phili.

We are now going to be that team that solid vets want to join to make a championship run before their careers end. NBA players will see how great a team and organization this has become under EG and Flip. Berto was just the start of what we will be able to get.

Sign below is you were an EG basher. May as well get signed on early.