A slightly unorthodox offseason plan

[Ex-hippie]

So the trading deadline came and went. Let's assume there are no waiver-wire deals. Here's my offseason plan, with deference to Philip Nelson Fan's contest-winning entry:

1. Trade 3B Adrian Beltre and SS Yuniesky Betancourt to LA Dodgers for LHP Scott Elbert and IF Delwyn Young. Rumors of Beltre going back to LA seem to surface every so often. This seems like a deal Ned Colletti would do. Mind you, when I say that, I'm not endorsing Colletti. But with Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal ready to bolt, he needs to replace half of his infield. We can take care of that rather quickly. M's shed $14 million of salary obligations for 2009.

2. Trade RP J.J. Putz to Tampa Bay for SS Reid Brignac. After the Rays inevitably choke away their division lead to teams with Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera -- come on, we all know it's coming -- they make a move for an established closer, who will have returned to form over the last two months of 2008. Brignac's star has dimmed somewhat over the last two years, but he becomes the starting shortstop in Seattle and is an upgrade.

3. Trade SP Miguel Batista and INF Oswaldo Navarro to [pick a team] for $1. Some team gets the equivalent of signing Batista to a one-year deal for $9 million, and they can try to revive him or at worst bring him back to the bullpen. A low-risk move, and for their trouble they get a good-glove infielder who is ready for the majors. M's shed $9 million of salary obligations for 2009.

4. Trade SP Carlos Silva and a promise to pay $4 million in each of 2009, 2010 and 2011 to [pick a team, hopefully one with good defense] for a non-prospect, like a 27-year-old playing Class A or something. Silva has 3 years and $34 million left on his deal. In effect, the team that acquires him will have the equivalent of signing him to a 3-year, $22 million contract. That's much more reasonable than the 4 years and $48 million he got from Bill Bavasi, isn't it? The M's pay the first $4 million immediately and set aside the remaining $8 million, counting the whole thing against the 2009 player budget.

5. Sign OF Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $60 million contract. This includes a $10 million signing bonus and a $12.5 million per year salary for four years.

6. Re-sign OF Raul Ibanez for 1 year, $5 million. Same salary as he's currently getting, which used to be a huge bargain but is now just about right. It's one-year contracts from now on, Raul.

7. Extend SP Felix Hernandez for 4 years, $28 million. This is a little more than Cleveland gave Grady Sizemore, which seemed like a comparable situation. (Actually I thought he might have been extended already, but it's not on mlbcontracts.blogspot.com.)

8. Sign OF Marcus Thames for 2 years, $5 million. This is double his current annual salary in Detroit. He'll fill a similar role here as an insurance OF-1B type.

9. Wave goodbye to useless free agents. Willie Bloomquist, Jamie Burke and Miguel Cairo are sent packing. Negligible salaries there, but that's only because Richie Sexson and (yes!!) Jose Vidro are already gone.

10. Teach C Jeff Clement to play 3B. Hey, it worked for Brandon Inge, one of the best in the business.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2009 Seattle Mariners: -- amounts in parentheses are 2009 salaries, in millions.

Lineup:
Suzuki cf (17.0)
LaHair 1b (0.38)
Lopez 2b (1.6)
Dunn dh (22.5)
Ibanez lf (5.0)
Balentien rf (0.38)
Clement 3b (0.38)
Brignac ss (0.38)
Moore c (0.38)

Backup position players:
Johjima c (8)
D.Young if (0.4)
Hulett if (0.4)
Thames of-1b (2.5)
Reed of (0.4)

Rotation:
Hernandez (7.0)
Bedard (7.0)
Morrow (0.5)
Washburn (10.35)
Elbert/J.Thomas/Feierabend/G.Hernandez/Rohrbaugh (0.38)

Bullpen:
Fields (0.38)
Lowe (0.39)
Green (0.41)
Rowland-Smith (0.4)
Jimenez (0.38)
Runner-up from above rotation battle (0.38)

Deadweight salary:
Silva (12.0)

Total player salary obligation for 2009: $99.26 million. This is counting all of Dunn's signing bonus and full defeasance of the obligation to pay for Silva. Amortize these amounts instead, and the payroll comes down to $83.76 million. I think this is a less terrible team than they have now, and with a bright future.

Waiting in the wings for 2010:
Losers of above starting rotation battle (to take spots if team does not re-sign Washburn and/or Bedard)
Raben 1b (to compete with LaHair).
Triunfel 2b-ss (to compete with either Lopez or Brignac)
Saunders of (to step in if the team does not re-sign Ibanez, or if Balentien falters)
Halman of (ditto)
Plus probably another $30 million or so of annual payroll to play with.

[Basketball Jesus]

Trade 3B Adrian Beltre and SS Yuniesky Betancourt to LA Dodgers for LHP Scott Elbert and IF Delwyn Young.

On the face, this seems like an OK-decent trade for both teams, bordering on smart. I don’t really know if Logan White would approve. (Rumor has it he was a major obstacle in the Manny deal and every deal involving his prospects and he’s got McCourt’s ear on any prospective deal.) Delwyn’s no great shakes prospect-wise but he could turn into a solid major-leaguer if given the chance and Elbert could be an effective swingman-type if he stays healthy enough. I think the Mariners could do better than this with the inclusion of Betancourt but, given the inability to effect any kind of deal at the deadline, I think the window has closed on getting a max return on Beltre so this may be the best-case scenario, sadly. I’d try for another prospect throw-in, like Andew Lambo.

2. Trade RP J.J. Putz to Tampa Bay for SS Reid Brignac.

Ain’t gonna happen. If the Rays weren’t budging in their refusal to move Brignac for Jason Bay, there’s no way in hell they’re doing it for a 30-year-old closer with sudden control (and injury) issues. Putz should have been traded at the deadline this year and I hope they tried their ass off in doing so because his value has now severely deflated.

I really don’t know how to approach the Putz situation this offseason. I think the Mariners made a dumb mistake in trying to turn Morrow back into a starter and, in doing so, effectively put the closer’s role back into Putz’s (in)capable hands. I’d feel a whole lot better if we knew what the Mariners were getting with Fields, so they could quickly groom him for the closer’s role but he’s still not signed. No question that he’ll sign before the deadline but I would have rather the Mariners wait before moving Morrow back to the rotation.

3. Trade SP Miguel Batista and INF Oswaldo Navarro to [pick a team] for $1.

Awesome trade for the Mariners but an albatross for the receiving team. I’d rather the Mariners eat 75% of his salary and move him for some catching gear but I feel he’s stuck here unless he gets the boot.

4. Trade SP Carlos Silva and a promise to pay $4 million in each of 2009, 2010 and 2011 to [pick a team, hopefully one with good defense] for a non-prospect, like a 27-year-old playing Class A or something.

It’s funny that you mention defense because Silva’s FIP? 4.40. Now, that’s not exactly what you’d expect to see from an $11MM man but it’s not nearly as bad as his actual 5.92 ERA suggests. Silva, behind a good defense, is a solid #3-#4 starter on most teams. All the Mariners need to do is give him that defense. I think, by moving Yuni and his execrably bad defense and shifting Ibanez to DH (if re-signed), moving Ichiro back to center, and plugging in even an average defensive SS, Silva becomes a decent rotation option for the M’s. I’d rather see this executed than moving him for pennies on the dollar, price be damned.

5. Sign OF Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $60 million contract. This includes a $10 million signing bonus and a $12.5 million per year salary for four years.

That Dunn wasn’t moved at the deadline (while Griffey was) suggests to me that the Reds may be coming to their senses and looking to sign Dunn long-term. Personally, as much as I like Dunn, I don’t think I’d like to commit a long-term deal to a player with Old Player’s Skills heading out of his peak years. Three years plus an option would be my limit but I wouldn’t be too mad at a deal like this. Although I have a feeling the Red Sox could now become players with Manny’s bloated contract gone. Which brings me to…

6. Re-sign OF Raul Ibanez for 1 year, $5 million. Same salary as he's currently getting, which used to be a huge bargain but is now just about right. It's one-year contracts from now on, Raul.

For whatever reason, if Manny’s no longer a Dodger after this season and Dunn remains a Red, I would love to see the M’s go after Ramirez and plug him in as DH. Sure, he’d probably cost upwards of $16MM but he can still hit and, as long as he’s not playing the field, he’s a valuable asset at that price. That said, it would probably take more to get him and, if the M’s signed him it’d make friendly face Ibanez a bit redundant but, still…Manny.

That said, Manny’s probably staying in LA and this is a good back-up option at a decent price. I know Ibanez is looking for a longer deal and I think there may be teams willing to give him one, so it may not happen at that price.

7. Extend SP Felix Hernandez for 4 years, $28 million.

Good price, good length. Like it.

8. Sign OF Marcus Thames for 2 years, $5 million.

I don’t know if I like this. First, if you assume the M’s sign Dunn (per this exercise), keep Reed and finally cede Balentien some playing time, the field becomes a little crowded. Thames could probably find better money and more PT elsewhere. It’s a great deal but I don’t think it’s probable.

9. Wave goodbye to useless free agents. Willie Bloomquist, Jamie Burke and Miguel Cairo are sent packing. Negligible salaries there, but that's only because Richie Sexson and (yes!!) Jose Vidro are already gone.

See you later nice time!

10. Teach C Jeff Clement to play 3B. Hey, it worked for Brandon Inge, one of the best in the business.

Inge is also extremely athletic and, well, Clement really isn’t. Or at least not as much as Inge.


Overall, I like the moves. I just don’t know how many are actually feasible, though.

[Ex-hippie]

Hey, I was wondering if anyone was ever going to respond. What's a guy gotta do to get flamed around here, anyway?

Trade 3B Adrian Beltre and SS Yuniesky Betancourt to LA Dodgers for LHP Scott Elbert and IF Delwyn Young.

quote]2. Trade RP J.J. Putz to Tampa Bay for SS Reid Brignac.

Ain’t gonna happen. If the Rays weren’t budging in their refusal to move Brignac for Jason Bay, there’s no way in hell they’re doing it for a 30-year-old closer with sudden control (and injury) issues. Putz should have been traded at the deadline this year and I hope they tried their ass off in doing so because his value has now severely deflated. [/quote]

The proposed Bay trade wasn't straight-up for Brignac. It also included Jeff Niemann, a good pitching prospect who I think is the same guy you mentioned the last time I brought up Brignac (suggesting we try for both Brignac and Niemann if we trade Putz and Raul Ibanez). Also note, I assumed Putz goes back to pitching well over the last few months and Tampa Bay suffers the inevitable September meltdown because of its bullpen. In other words, yes, perhaps it's optimistic, but not completely impossible.

I really don’t know how to approach the Putz situation this offseason. I think the Mariners made a dumb mistake in trying to turn Morrow back into a starter and, in doing so, effectively put the closer’s role back into Putz’s (in)capable hands. I’d feel a whole lot better if we knew what the Mariners were getting with Fields, so they could quickly groom him for the closer’s role but he’s still not signed. No question that he’ll sign before the deadline but I would have rather the Mariners wait before moving Morrow back to the rotation.

In my simple mind, Morrow is real good and I'd rather see him pitch 200 innings per year than 80 innings per year, even if the 80 are high-leverage. Plus, you're treating the Morrow move like it's irrevocable. If he fails to live up to his potential as a starter, just move him back to the bullpen. No harm done. Lots of bullpen studs take this path.

3. Trade SP Miguel Batista and INF Oswaldo Navarro to [pick a team] for $1.

Awesome trade for the Mariners but an albatross for the receiving team. I’d rather the Mariners eat 75% of his salary and move him for some catching gear but I feel he’s stuck here unless he gets the boot.

Well I tried to throw in a Grade B prospect to make it worth their while. Maybe it's not enough. If Bill Bavasi was willing to pay Jeff Weaver a bazillion dollars for one year, couldn't somebody take a flyer on Batista?

4. Trade SP Carlos Silva and a promise to pay $4 million in each of 2009, 2010 and 2011 to [pick a team, hopefully one with good defense] for a non-prospect, like a 27-year-old playing Class A or something.

It’s funny that you mention defense because Silva’s FIP? 4.40. Now, that’s not exactly what you’d expect to see from an $11MM man but it’s not nearly as bad as his actual 5.92 ERA suggests. Silva, behind a good defense, is a solid #3-#4 starter on most teams. All the Mariners need to do is give him that defense. I think, by moving Yuni and his execrably bad defense and shifting Ibanez to DH (if re-signed), moving Ichiro back to center, and plugging in even an average defensive SS, Silva becomes a decent rotation option for the M’s. I’d rather see this executed than moving him for pennies on the dollar, price be damned.

Now you've got me thinking. Maybe the better plan is to take somebody's offer of whatever for Jarrod Washburn and wipe his salary off the books completely, keeping Silva. Although Silva is paid more, for 2009 the team's payroll would decrease (since I've actually allocated something more than Silva's entire salary for the 8-figure payment just to make him go away). There would be less flexibility for 2010 and 2011, but at that point we're down to just two years left on his deal. Maybe that's something we could all live with.

For whatever reason, if Manny’s no longer a Dodger after this season and Dunn remains a Red, I would love to see the M’s go after Ramirez and plug him in as DH. Sure, he’d probably cost upwards of $16MM but he can still hit and, as long as he’s not playing the field, he’s a valuable asset at that price. That said, it would probably take more to get him and, if the M’s signed him it’d make friendly face Ibanez a bit redundant but, still…Manny.

Mmm, mmm, Manny. Aim high, I say. He asked to be traded about 26 different times in Boston, and I believe in 8 or 9 of them he mentioned Seattle as a place where he might like to play. I think it had something to do with Mike Hargrove, though.

8. Sign OF Marcus Thames for 2 years, $5 million.

I don’t know if I like this. First, if you assume the M’s sign Dunn (per this exercise), keep Reed and finally cede Balentien some playing time, the field becomes a little crowded. Thames could probably find better money and more PT elsewhere. It’s a great deal but I don’t think it’s probable.

I went to another source and Thames isn't on the list of impending free agents (I had looked him up on mlbcontracts.blogspot.com just because he had popped into my head). So maybe it's a non-issue. The idea was to come up with someone who would generally be a backup, but wouldn't embarrass the team if he was forced into the lineup for a year or two if Lahair/Balentien, then Raben/Saunders, all failed. If he's looking for a guarantee of more PT then this probably isn't the place for him.

10. Teach C Jeff Clement to play 3B. Hey, it worked for Brandon Inge, one of the best in the business.

Inge is also extremely athletic and, well, Clement really isn’t. Or at least not as much as Inge.

OK, maybe Inge is an unrealistic comparison. But Inge isn't the only player to make the transition from catcher to third. I'd rather give Clement a shot there than move Clement directly to first or DH, where his bat becomes nothing special. I've been one of this board's biggest proponents of developing Clement at catcher, but with Adam Moore coming down the pike, I'm ready to adjust. Maybe the solution is just to trade one of them for a real third baseman and be done with it.

[Sweezo]

Probably a little quick to pencil Lahair in as your starting 1B. He's had a fast start to his pro career, but he's known to have a hole in his swing and someone will find it and then it becomes pretty textbook in terms of how to pitch to him. In fact, he's 9 for 42 over the last few games (.214) so that may already have occurred. The question is how he responds to it. I'm not against the idea of giving him a big role next year, but he's going to have to prove himself...

BBJ's argument w/r/t Silva makes sense. Unfortunately, I just don't see anyone in the organization coming to the realization that Yuni = faux defensive wizard. Then again, we don't know who the GM will be...

[Ex-hippie]

Probably a little quick to pencil Lahair in as your starting 1B. He's had a fast start to his pro career, but he's known to have a hole in his swing and someone will find it and then it becomes pretty textbook in terms of how to pitch to him. In fact, he's 9 for 42 over the last few games (.214) so that may already have occurred. The question is how he responds to it. I'm not against the idea of giving him a big role next year, but he's going to have to prove himself...

It's a one-year thing. Dennis Raben is the first baseman of the future and I've already made up my mind about this. I'm hoping LaHair can OPS somewhere in the 725 range for a year -- an upgrade from this year, by the way -- and hold down the fort. That was also part of the reason for signing Marcus Thames, just in case it doesn't work out.

P.S. Hey, Rays, I see your bullpen let you down last night! Did you see that guy on the other team pitch an inning with two strikeouts and get the win? He looked pretty good, didn't he?

[Basketball Jesus]

The proposed Bay trade wasn't straight-up for Brignac. It also included Jeff Niemann, a good pitching prospect who I think is the same guy you mentioned the last time I brought up Brignac (suggesting we try for both Brignac and Niemann if we trade Putz and Raul Ibanez). Also note, I assumed Putz goes back to pitching well over the last few months and Tampa Bay suffers the inevitable September meltdown because of its bullpen. In other words, yes, perhaps it's optimistic, but not completely impossible.

From what I’ve read on the blogosphere, it seems Brignac was the primary reason the Rays didn’t pull the trigger on the Bay deal. Which makes a bit of sense: Niemann’s a LAIM-quality arm in an organization full of potential aces and he probably has more value in trade. Brignac, on the other hand, still has potential to be an above-average offensive SS for the Rays at the major league level.

If the Rays were dead-set on getting Putz, I’d probably ask for Niemann and a lesser prospect (Ruggiano?) or even Niemann and Jonny Gomes. That deal would probably have a shot of happening.

In my simple mind, Morrow is real good and I'd rather see him pitch 200 innings per year than 80 innings per year, even if the 80 are high-leverage. Plus, you're treating the Morrow move like it's irrevocable. If he fails to live up to his potential as a starter, just move him back to the bullpen. No harm done. Lots of bullpen studs take this path.

See my post in the Vidro (fatass) thread: there’s sufficient reason to believe that Morrow will be overmatched as a starter and that, ideally, with his repertoire, he’d be better suited to work out of the pen. Also, I think by bouncing him around like this, you’re doing more harm than good because, as a starter, he’ll be forced to work on things that would make him a less effective reliever and vice-versa. Really, I’d love to see them stop dicking Morrow around and let him do what he does best: throw fast and throw hard.

Well I tried to throw in a Grade B prospect to make it worth their while. Maybe it's not enough. If Bill Bavasi was willing to pay Jeff Weaver a bazillion dollars for one year, couldn't somebody take a flyer on Batista?

The problem is every team has a Navarro in their system, so there’s no real incentive there. I really think that unless the M’s eat a good portion of Batista’s contract, he stays put.

Now you've got me thinking. Maybe the better plan is to take somebody's offer of whatever for Jarrod Washburn and wipe his salary off the books completely, keeping Silva. Although Silva is paid more, for 2009 the team's payroll would decrease (since I've actually allocated something more than Silva's entire salary for the 8-figure payment just to make him go away). There would be less flexibility for 2010 and 2011, but at that point we're down to just two years left on his deal. Maybe that's something we could all live with.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Silva contract is terrible; hopefully it’s a mistake the new regime realizes and never makes again. However, from an overall progress standpoint, it makes more sense to fix the things that make Silva a superficially worse pitcher (i.e. defense) than it would be to ship Silva out. Moving Silva’s not going to contribute to fixing this team’s flaws; he’s not going to net any top prospects and a portion of his salary will be needed to fill his spot in the rotation with, most likely, a comparable free agent pitcher. (And, most importantly, his presence on the roster isn’t keeping an ace prospect out of the major league rotation.)

OK, maybe Inge is an unrealistic comparison. But Inge isn't the only player to make the transition from catcher to third. I'd rather give Clement a shot there than move Clement directly to first or DH, where his bat becomes nothing special. I've been one of this board's biggest proponents of developing Clement at catcher, but with Adam Moore coming down the pike, I'm ready to adjust. Maybe the solution is just to trade one of them for a real third baseman and be done with it.

I’m a huge Moore fanboy but I’m not ready to cede him the exclusive catching role just yet. I actually think the M’s might have a good thing going giving them both equal time behind the dish along with spot DH duties. You may be able to preserve each better that way.

[jumanji]

I'm all for trading Betancourt but not sure about bringing in Brignac from the Rays. I would rather draft Grant Green SS out of USC and get him in the lineup from day one.

[Ex-hippie]

That Dunn wasn’t moved at the deadline (while Griffey was) suggests to me that the Reds may be coming to their senses and looking to sign Dunn long-term.

Nope, they're as stupid as ever.

[Sweezo]

The Reds just traded Dunn to the D'Backs for three prospects...nobody knows who yet though.

[Ex-hippie]

... and the Grade-A dumbassery begins! No, I did not post the above link after I already knew about the Dunn trade.

Dusty Baker must be ecstatic that his basepaths will be gloriously unclogged the rest of the year.

[BlackMamba]

wait, isn't there a trade deadline?


i like the whole plan, it gives the M's a "young" team with everything to win and almost nothing to lose, the thing is, who would get the coaching spot?

also, who would be the closer? green?

oh, and it would be AWESOME if the M's could be available to make a run at manny.

[Ex-hippie]

wait, isn't there a trade deadline?

Trades can still be made after the deadline, but the player has to be placed on waivers first. Waiver priority goes through the player's current league, in order of record (worst to best). Scanning the NL standings, it looks like Dunn had to clear 8 teams. The only one of those teams that can claim to be a "contender" at this stage is the Dodgers, who just acquired Manny. So Dunn made it through.

also, who would be the closer? green?

The thought was Fields, but I'd be happy with it being a committee.

oh, and it would be AWESOME if the M's could be available to make a run at manny.

The more I think about it, the more it seems preordained that Manny will be returning home to the Bronx next season.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Hey hippie, if you don't mind me stealing a little thunder, I'm going to try an entirely new off-season plan, and (to up the difficulty level for me) I won't use the same transaction twice on my "winning" plan (well, except one).

-Trade Jarrod Washburn (pay off some salary) and Mark Lowe to NYM for RP Eddie Kunz (AA) and OF Endy Chavez.

-Trade Carlos Silva (pay at least half his salary) and Justin Thomas (sorry, hippie) to NYY for SP Andrew Brackman (injured right now).

-Trade JJ Putz and Jeremy Reed to SF for SS Manny Burriss, RP Waldis Joaquin (A) and 2B Matt Downs (A+).

-Sign SP A.J. Burnett to a 2-year deal ($18 million, team option for 3rd year).

-Sign RF Adam Dunn to a 5-year deal ($100 million).

-Sign 1B/3B Russell Branyan to a 1-year deal ($1 million). (There's my one move.)

-Let every free agent walk and cut Miguel Batista's sorry ass.

Catchers:
Jeff Clement
Kenji Johjima
Rob Johnson

Infielders:
Russell Branyan (1B/3B)
Jose Lopez (2B)
Yuniesky Betancourt (SS)
Adrian Beltre (3B)
Manny Burriss (SS/2B); could replace Yuni if he sucks it up)
Bryan LaHair (1B)

Outfielders:
Ichiro!
Adam Dunn
Wlad Balentien
Endy Chavez
Mike Morse

Starting rotation:
1. King Felix
2. Erik Bedard
3. A.J. Burnett
4. Brandon Morrow
5. Ryan Rowland-Smith/R.A. Dickey/Ryan Feierabend

Relief pitching:
Sean Green
Cesar Jimenez
Eric O'Flaherty (my boy)
Dickey/Feierabend/Rowland-Smith
Eddie Kunz (closer)
I don't know who else (Fields, Rohrbaugh, whoever else)

Basically, the point of my trades is to replenish the farm system a little more. We trade spare parts (Washburn) and pick up a new closer; we trade our closer and pick up a talented young SS, a promising reliever and another promising infielder. We basically start over with a fresher rotation that includes Burnett, who may be a little undervalued in baseball right now, and Morrow and we get that marquee FA in Dunn. The weakest position on the team is at 1B but this allows LaHair a chance to step up, and if not Raben may quickly take his place. The SP in the organization is now legitimately three-deep (Aumont/Gaby Hernandez/Brackman) in talented youth, and we get the compensatory picks for Ibanez that we all love.

[Basketball Jesus]

Those are like Bizarro Bill Bavasi trades: instead of trading good prospects for crappy major leaguers, you’re trading decent major leaguers for crappy prospects. Sorry PNF, but those guys suck.

[Ex-hippie]

Isn't that a little harsh? I'll admit I'm not familiar with many of the guys PNF mentioned, but with some quick Google searches I found some favorable discussions of some of them, like here and here.

More specifically:

-Trade Jarrod Washburn (pay off some salary) and Mark Lowe to NYM for RP Eddie Kunz (AA) and OF Endy Chavez.

One of the above links is to an article on Kunz. Apparently he has great stuff, but then so does Lowe, who is already in the majors. Kunz may have more upside but he also has more downside. I'd see that as a wash. Then it's Washburn for a fourth outfielder *and* we have to pay off some salary?

-Trade Carlos Silva (pay at least half his salary) and Justin Thomas (sorry, hippie) to NYY for SP Andrew Brackman (injured right now).

Hey, don't be sorry to me. But I don't see the Yankees as being the kind of team that will want to trade for a mediocre starting pitcher with the other team agreeing to pay part of his salary. They'll go after the top pitchers on the market and they'll pay whatever it costs. (And they have a GM who is smart enough to abstain when "top pitchers on the market" mean guys like Silva and Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn.) From our end, Thomas is at least a decent prospect and Brackman might be a better one -- but is it really worth it to eat like $18 million of salary just to make that upgrade??

-Trade JJ Putz and Jeremy Reed to SF for SS Manny Burriss, RP Waldis Joaquin (A) and 2B Matt Downs (A+).

This one I don't understand. Burriss seems like a decent prospect but not a brilliant one, and the other two are low-minors guys I'm not so sure about. Anyway, I'd think San Fran is looking to Burriss as the shortstop to replace that guy who used to be Omar Vizquel; certainly he's better than the atrocious Brian Bocock.

-Sign SP A.J. Burnett to a 2-year deal ($18 million, team option for 3rd year).

Burnett has an opt-out clause. If he doesn't opt out, he'll make $12 million in both 2009 and 2010. I would assume that if he opts out, it's because he has a chance to do better than that on the market. He won't opt out for a pay cut -- although, admittedly, some of the effects of a pay cut would be mitigated by the currency devaluation and the lower tax rates here in the U S of A. But is he in a rush to come to Seattle? I know he talked to the M's last time he was a free agent, but I suspect he was just using the team as a stalking horse.

-Sign RF Adam Dunn to a 5-year deal ($100 million).

Whoa! Well, at least I can say this: it should be enough to lure him.

-Sign 1B/3B Russell Branyan to a 1-year deal ($1 million). (There's my one move.)

This is a fine price for Russell "I was like Jack Cust before Jack Cust was cool" Branyan, but might he be looking for a bigger payday than this, with the year he's having? If he'll settle for a year and $1 million, great.

-Let every free agent walk and cut Miguel Batista's sorry ass.

Yes. And here's another thought: cut Yuniesky Betancourt's sorry ass. Sure, he's signed for another three years, but the total salary over those three years is the same as Batista's in one year. The sunk cost is the same. And Betancourt, who is bar none the worst everyday player in the majors, is doing just as much as Batista to hurt the team.

[Basketball Jesus]

I plan on posting mine tomorrow so you can all laugh at me.

[Basketball Jesus]

OK, time to take my own stab at it. Here is my Twelve Step Program Towards a Better Mariners:

1. Mariners trade SS Yuniesky Betancourt and 3B Adrian Beltre to the Chicago White Sox for 3B Josh Fields and RP Fernando Hernandez.

On the face of it, the deal seems kind of strange for either side to make. For one, Fields seems to be the heir apparent to Crede after this season; on the other side it seems the Mariners are getting short-changed for two major leaguers.

I think the White Sox pull the trigger because it gives them two major leaguers to plug their two biggest holes this offseason: 3B and SS. While Beltre was a tad expensive when he signed his contract, the market has adjusted to the point where he’s paid accordingly, if not an outright bargain. He is an excellent defensive 3B and his right-handed bat should benefit from moving from Safeco to the Cell. Betancourt, while not an ideal option, does provide a relatively cheap solution to filling short without having to dip into an offseason free agent market where Rafael Furcal is going to earn a dub-digit million dollar deal. Plus, this is a team that used to rune Juan Uribe out at short so defense isn’t really that big of a deal. (And, with Orlando Cabrera, neither was offense, apparently.) Adding these two gives the White Sox a last-gasp shot at the World Series with their aging line-up, at the cost of one oldish prospect they’ve pretty much given up on and a middle relief prospect with average stuff.

Why I think the Mariners do this is that it will free up Beltre’s contract, allow them to get rid of the worst-fielding SS in the league, AND give them a replacement option at third. Fields is no great shakes but his bat should play at the major league level and he’s young. Hernandez is nothing more than a RP prospect flier, albeit one with OK-good peripherals.

2. Mariners trade SP Jarrod Washburn and cash (70% of Washburn’s 2009 contract - $7MM) to the New York Yankees for SP George Kontos.

Washburn’s not necessarily an awful pitcher – he generally gives you around 180+ league-average innings a year – but, at $10MM, you definitely want more for your dollar. He gives the Yankees a bit of big-league stability as a one-year insurance pitcher at the cost of only $3MM and a decent-good prospect in Kontos, who most likely finds himself on the outside looking in for a set spot in the Yankees’ big-league rotation.

Kontos would then become the best Mariners pitching prospect above A-ball and a candidate for the rotation as early as next season.

3. Mariners trade C Kenji Johjima and cash ($8MM) to the Houston Astros for UT Geoff Blum

Essentially this is a pure dump trade: the Mariners shift Johjima’s contract to the Astros, while paying one year of his extension. In return they get Bloomquist-esque Blum, who can provide infield depth at $1.1MM. The Astros get Johjima, who’s still pretty good defensively, as the Asian version of their Brad Ausmus and as back-up for Towles.

4. Mariners DFA Miguel Batista

The only issue I have is that $9MM is a lot of cash to eat without getting something in return but, let’s face it, you’re not getting anything in return for Batista. You could package Juan Ramirez with him and teams still wouldn’t bite.

5. Mariners head to arbitration with Erik Bedard

The trade market for him is pretty weak given his injury so there’s no sense in moving him now. Let him play half a year; his trade value’s got nowhere to go but up (I hope).

6a. Mariners sign Raul Ibanez to 2-year $12MM contract with club option
6b. Mariners sign Juan Rivera to a 2-year, $4MM contract.

I’m hesitant to sign Ibanez long-term. I know he’s looking for at least a three-year commitment but there are far too many better options out there for DH-types. It’s a minor bump in pay and a multi-year deal to stay with the M’s for a team he loves. If he says no…eff it, get the comp picks.

If Ibanez decides the grass is a little greener outside the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners go after Juan Rivera for two years at marginal cost. While not an optimal solution for DH, Rivera does have power, he’s only 30, and he’s fungible enough to discard once a better solution comes along.

7a. Mariners sign SS Adam Everett to a 2-year $5MM contract
7b. Mariners sign SS Alex Cora to a 2-year $4MM contract

Wait…what? We get rid of an offensive black hole at first only to add another one? Yes, both Adam Everett and (to a lesser degree) Cora suck offensively but, and here’s the important thing, both are exceptional defensive shortstops. (Everett’s generally considered one of, if not the best in the game.) With a team that has two groundballers in Felix and Carlos Silva, infield defense is a premium. So, while the team will still be sacrificing offense at shortstop, they’ve now corrected the issue with Betancourt’s defense in a major way.

8. Convert Brandon Morrow back into a RP, slate him as set-up for Putz, groom him for closer.

I’ve given my reasons for this in various threads so I won’t repeat it here: simply put, Morrow’s profile is much better suited as a dominant power reliever than a starter. Groom him as the eventual replacement for Putz. Showcase Putz for a potential deadline deal and slide Morrow over to replace him.

9. Sign Oliver Perez to a 3-year $24MM contract

This is by far the riskiest transaction I propose. On the face, it looks a lot like the Carlos Silva deal: signing an average pitcher to a bloated contract. This is entirely different and the type of risk a team like the Mariners should take. Whereas Silva was an average/good pitcher, he had very limited upside. You knew you were getting league-average production. Perez, on the other hand, is an incredibly streaky pitcher who, when on, can be downright dominant. He has a much higher upside and he’s entering his age-27 season, generally the cusp of a pitcher’s peak years. If Perez can become more consistent, he’s an absolute steal at $8MM per. If not, even his downs aren’t as bad as $9MM man Miggy Batista.

10. Sign Jay Payton to 1-year $2.5MM contract

Payton, who will turn 36 in November, would provide an able platoon in center with Jeremy Reed, taking Reed’s futile attempts against lefties and turning them into productive ABs. (Payton’s career against LHP: .288/.346/.466). He also provides OK depth at all three OF positions. The problem with this contract is that Payton still has delusions of grandeur and thinks he deserves a starting gig, so this deal may not happen. I’ll pretend that this is the best chance Payton has at seeing meaningful ABs and add him to the M’s.

11. Sign Nomar Garciaparra to a 2-year, $12MM contract with performance incentives.

We’ve had Bromar; let’s get the right Garciaparra this time! Well, right may be a subjective term as Nomar has been famously battling injuries for like the last 100 years. Still, even at 34 and in limited ABs, he can hit and, at this price, it’s a low-risk option. Garciaparra can split time between 1B, DH, and provide emergency insurance at SS. I assume that, with his injuries, he’s not going to be offered more than an year plus incentives, so offering a multi-year with incentives might sway him over to the M’s.

12. Let the organizational flotsam fight for the last SP spot

Whoever has the best Spring Training wins! No added cost and it allows the team to see what they have with guys like Ryan Feierabend, Ryan Rowland-Smith, R.A. Dickey, George Kontos, and others on the periphery.

All in all, the 25-man ends up looking like this:

C: Jeff Clement
1B: Nomar Garciaparra
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Josh Fields
SS: Adam Everett (or Alex Cora)
LF: Wladimir Balentien
CF: Jeremy Reed
RF: Ichiro!
DH: Raul Ibanez (or Juan Rivera)
Bench C: Adam Moore
Bench OF: Jay Payton (platoon w/Reed)
Bench Middle IF: Tug Hulett
Bench UT: Geoff Blum

SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Erik Bedard
SP: Oliver Perez
SP: Carlos Silva
SP: Ryan Feierabend/RR-S/R.A. Dickey/George Kontos
RP: Sean Green (high-leverage innings)
RP: Mark Lowe (low-leverage innings)
RP: R.A. Dickey (long relief/spot starting)
RP: Cesar Jimenez
SU: Brandon Morrow
CL: JJ Putz

As you may notice, there are no fancy big-name signings (unless you count Nomar and Oliver Perez), no panic trades to bring in veteran talent, no egregious overspending with respect to low ceiling players. Sure, this team isn’t sexy. And it probably won’t place any higher than last in the division.

While adding big talent like Adam Dunn, Manny, or Mark Teixeira would make this team better (and, in the case of Teix, address the woeful 1B situation), it’s not going to turn this team into an instant playoff contender. There are far too many other holes in this club. It doesn’t make sense to get into a $100MM bidding war for a player who’s going to be well outside his prime years by the time the Mariners start to seriously contend. And signing a player of that caliber isn’t going to add “prestige” to the team. Winning seasons add prestige. Smart front offices add prestige to an organization. Smart front offices don’t pour buckets of money on a four-win-upgrade player that will bring a team from 72 wins to 76 wins. There’s no benefit to those four extra wins.

Most importantly, by keeping their current farm intact, along with adding younger guys like Perez, Kontos, and Fields, the Mariners make progress in transitioning from an old, bloated team to a youthful, promising one. Sure, Clement and Balentien may not be the faces of the future Mariners but, by giving them a chance at considerable playing time, it allows the Mariners to gauge now whether or not players like Clement, Moore, Balentien, and Reed fit in with that plan instead of stringing them along with teases of whether or not they’ll live up to their potential. It also gives the team a chance to build up trade value in guys like Putz and Bedard for potential deadline deals to further the conversion towards the future. Both should be able to net the team some sort of top-line prospects.

Baby steps, dear friends. Baby steps.

[Ex-hippie]

1. Mariners trade SS Yuniesky Betancourt and 3B Adrian Beltre to the Chicago White Sox for 3B Josh Fields and RP Fernando Hernandez.

I would have liked this based on what I knew, but then I clicked the links that you so graciously provided, and it looks to me like Fields has regressed somewhat this year. Dude's 25 and he can't OPS 800 at the AAA level? He was supposed to have taken over for Crede by now, although obviously Crede is playing much better this year than the broken-down guy he appeared to be last year.

On the plus side, I love the idea of having two players named Josh Fields and two pitchers named F.Hernandez on one team. I promise, there will be wacky hijinks in that clubhouse.

2. Mariners trade SP Jarrod Washburn and cash (70% of Washburn’s 2009 contract - $7MM) to the New York Yankees for SP George Kontos.

I like the concept -- eat some of Washburn's salary so they don't have to give him away -- but that seems like kind of a lot. I don't see Kontos as being much different from what you refer to elsewhere as "organizational flotsam." Teams balk at paying $7m signing bonuses to their high first-round draft picks, so why should the equivalent amount be spent for a prospect like this?

3. Mariners trade C Kenji Johjima and cash ($8MM) to the Houston Astros for UT Geoff Blum

I guess that will work. Although I'm starting to wonder if another team will even accept having to pay $16m for three years of Johjima.

4. Mariners DFA Miguel Batista

The only issue I have is that $9MM is a lot of cash to eat without getting something in return but, let’s face it, you’re not getting anything in return for Batista. You could package Juan Ramirez with him and teams still wouldn’t bite.

Point taken. Or at least not Oswaldo Navarro. Batista can't even make a single appearance without it being a disaster, it seems. So much for being "one of the greatest players in world baseball".

5. Mariners head to arbitration with Erik Bedard

The trade market for him is pretty weak given his injury so there’s no sense in moving him now. Let him play half a year; his trade value’s got nowhere to go but up (I hope).

Yes.

6a. Mariners sign Raul Ibanez to 2-year $12MM contract with club option

I could probably live with this.

6b. Mariners sign Juan Rivera to a 2-year, $4MM contract.

Kind of comparable to my Thames propsal. Speaking of which, I'm ashamed I didn't know this, but Thames is quietly having an awesome year. That rules out my idea, probably. On the flipside, Rivera is having a poor year -- worse than he was in 2007, which in turn was worse than he was in 2006. In other words, he's following a somewhat predictable trajectory at age 30 here. But I guess the money isn't too bad.

7a. Mariners sign SS Adam Everett to a 2-year $5MM contract
7b. Mariners sign SS Alex Cora to a 2-year $4MM contract

Okay, but why both? I thought maybe you were trying for a platoon, but I checked out their three-year splits and see that they're both equally bad against lefties and righties. I guess you're looking at Cora as a pure utility guy?

8. Convert Brandon Morrow back into a RP, slate him as set-up for Putz, groom him for closer.

That ship has sailed, my friend. He's going to be another Joba, just watch. The team should groom Josh Fields -- the one we already have -- for closer. Otherwise the job reverts to Jamie Burke.

9. Sign Oliver Perez to a 3-year $24MM contract

I don't think it's a bad deal. I suspect the team is going to be rather gun-shy about giving $24 million deals to pitchers without superstar track records, but if they've already cleared out two other overpriced pitchers, why not? Living in New York, I hear a lot of people grinding their teeth about Perez; I think they might let him go.

10. Sign Jay Payton to 1-year $2.5MM contract

Payton, who will turn 36 in November, would provide an able platoon in center with Jeremy Reed, taking Reed’s futile attempts against lefties and turning them into productive ABs. (Payton’s career against LHP: .288/.346/.466). He also provides OK depth at all three OF positions. The problem with this contract is that Payton still has delusions of grandeur and thinks he deserves a starting gig, so this deal may not happen. I’ll pretend that this is the best chance Payton has at seeing meaningful ABs and add him to the M’s.

I like this move. Payton has somehow turned from an overrated, toolsy prospect into someone I really like. I can't believe he's almost 36, though.

11. Sign Nomar Garciaparra to a 2-year, $12MM contract with performance incentives.

Not sure I follow the logic of this one. I'll copy one of your later arguments here:

While adding big talent like Adam Dunn, Manny, or Mark Teixeira would make this team better (and, in the case of Teix, address the woeful 1B situation), it’s not going to turn this team into an instant playoff contender. There are far too many other holes in this club. It doesn’t make sense to get into a $100MM bidding war for a player who’s going to be well outside his prime years by the time the Mariners start to seriously contend. And signing a player of that caliber isn’t going to add “prestige” to the team. Winning seasons add prestige. Smart front offices add prestige to an organization. Smart front offices don’t pour buckets of money on a four-win-upgrade player that will bring a team from 72 wins to 76 wins. There’s no benefit to those four extra wins.

I'm not saying I disagree with the latter point, but then why would you spend $6 million per year on Nomar to improve from 72 wins to 74 wins, other than for organizational prestige? Why not just see if LaHair has anything to offer, and hope Dennis Raben is ready by opening day 2009?

Note, when I proposed Dunn at the start of this thread, the premise was that he would be reasonably valued, because people seem to fixate on his strikeouts and low batting average and lack of defense and unclutchness and all that. If the bidding war is in the $100m range, then yes, we should stay out of it.

12. Let the organizational flotsam fight for the last SP spot

Whoever has the best Spring Training wins! No added cost and it allows the team to see what they have with guys like Ryan Feierabend, Ryan Rowland-Smith, R.A. Dickey, George Kontos, and others on the periphery.

Justin Thomas, dammit, Justin Thomas!!1!

All in all, the 25-man ends up looking like this:
....
SS: Adam Everett (or Alex Cora)
...
Bench Middle IF: Tug Hulett
Bench UT: Geoff Blum

Oh, did I get that wrong? I thought you were signing Everett *and* Cora. I'd think you can have them both and screw Blum.

RP: Sean Green (high-leverage innings)
RP: Mark Lowe (low-leverage innings)
RP: R.A. Dickey (long relief/spot starting)
RP: Cesar Jimenez
SU: Brandon Morrow
CL: JJ Putz

Are you forgetting RRS? Jimenez is your only lefty.

[Basketball Jesus]

Regarding Fields: The White Sox have this weird Torrean fetish with veteran grittiness, which is partly the reason why Fields hasn’t been given a proper shot. In truth Fields isn’t a great player; he resembles Crede in his all-or-nothing power approach, which will severely limit his value to the vagaries of BABIP. The reason why I did the deal (aside from pawning off Betancourt) is to give the Mariners a near-ready replacement without having to hope for Triunfel/Martinez/De Jesus to jump four levels in the next year.

I’ll admit that, no more than five minutes after posting it, I thought that you could eliminate Beltre and Fields from the deal and it (i.e. Betancourt for Hernandez) would still be a plus for both sides. Let’s go with that. Hell, we could probably hope for Beltre to be moved at the next deadline.

Regarding Wasburn/Kontos: Don’t look at it so much as the Mariners paying $7MM to get George Kontos, look at is as the Mariners saving $2MM in 2009 and picking up a good prospect in return. Washburn has no future with this team and, while I’ve said that in keeping Silva it isn’t blocking any prospect from getting his due, Silva’s contract makes moving him a bit tougher. Washburn, on the other hand, isn’t in the plans after 2009: Kontos could be. (At worst he makes a great set-up guy.)

Regarding Morrow: It’s my damn team and I’ll do what I want with him! And what I want to do with him is put him in a position to succeed.

Regarding Rivera (or Ibanez) and Nomar: two sides of the same coin, really. Both (all three) players are cheap ways to fill a position without having to dedicate a long-term large contract to the bigger-name free agents. Free agency is a colossal waste of money. These are relatively harmless deals meant at addressing short-term depth until something better comes along when the time is right. Hell, if Raben can prove he’s ready to stay in 2010 (which is a bit more realistic than 2009; it gives him a full season in the minors), Nomar’s only on the hook until that season. And it’s Nomar: he’ll probably spend half his time at DH or on the DL.

As for LaHair: he doesn’t impress me. I’d probably use him as my Quad-A call-up for injuries.

Everett/Cora: it’s an *or* situation, dependent on whether or not Everett would sign a deal like that.

Regarding the pen: I hate modern pen construction. I’d probably go one lefty.

[BlackMamba]

having perez would be nice (for obvious reasons).


and in all this offseason plans, wiretap says the tigers would be moving ordoñez, can the mariners make a run at him?